Thursday, December 29, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

The fifth season of picking NFL games against the spread all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. The coalition separated by just six games.

Adam went insane last week, making his picks purely based on his fantasy championships. He did all right from what I understand, though he had one opponent whose team went bonkers and he went into Monday night needing Golden Tate to have something like 15 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns to mount the miracle comeback. But on here, his insanity paid off as he managed to take six of our 11 disputed games and pick up one of the games he's lost in recent weeks back. This includes yet another discrepancy between ESPN and Confessions of a Sportscaster where Adam picked the wrong team on ESPN. He actually has one more point than ESPN says he does, which narrows the gap.

This puts him in a tie for third place with my dad, three games back of me. And after spending the first month or two of the season spotting the rest of the coalition a cushion, I've caught fire in recent weeks, and Logan's lead has dropped to one game. It will all come down to these final 16 games. If you want a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other, you can view a spreadsheet of that here.

Now, Adam is on his way to Dallas with his family [insert "Traitor!" video here]. As such, he was unable to get me his picks this week, which I totally understand. I was able to scramble reinforcements for this final week, thankfully. I tried to get Logan to fill in, but he was unable to, so my dad graciously stepped in to take his place and join me for this final round. He had this to say about doing so:
Note to Adam - I'm happy to fill in, only because I'm off from work this week and have the time. You are not Bledsoe to my Brady or Romo to my Prescott. The starting job is still yours.
Well, I guess it's good we don't have a quarterback picker controversy. As for this week, I must be my father's son, because we only disagree on three of the final 16 games. Sorry Dad, that means the best you can do is tie me.

To my fellow competitors: it has been a fun season, and an honor to compete with you all. Good luck!

Monday, December 26, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas! As we close out 2016, I have one final college football related post to write out for the calendar year.

Last week saw the opening round of this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs, which was mostly chalk, with a couple exceptions, including the second straight year of a 14 seed knocking off the 3 seed. But now, the road gets tougher.

With the holiday, I ended up moving this week's games up to Friday so they wouldn't conflict with the NFL, and this also allows the players to get back home for Christmas after the fact. After all, these kids are students first.

So like in the last round, home field advantage goes to the higher seeded team. Weather at kickoff time is taken into account, and I try to adjust teams' offensive depth charts based on injury data taken from Don Best's handicapping website. These games are simulated as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

Thursday, December 22, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We've got just two weeks left in this NFL season, and the playoff picture is clearing up. The standings of our consortium, however, are far less clear.

One thing that is clear, however, is that my hot streak continues. Adam went into desperation mode last week, and he did all right, but I still took five of our eight disputed games to build a four game lead on him and pull to within three of the group lead. If you want a look at a breakdown of how we've all been picking in relation to each other, you can view that here.

Last week I'd also mentioned that we had a goof up on ESPN where Adam picked contrary to what he is on record here as picking. He did it again this past week, but fortunately, it went the opposite direction: he picked wrong on ESPN but was correct on here, so he gets an extra point. This makes up for the one he had subtracted on here from the week before, so his ESPN total is now once again in line with what he's supposed to have.

Adam is back from Dallas for the holiday weekend, and he's once again in desperation mode. From his email with his picks:
I may have gone from first to worst in the Pick 'Em, but I am sitting pretty in 3, yes 3, fantasy football super bowls. Projected to win 2, and close in the 3rd. So I am going to pick this week based on which team I want to do well (or not) based on my fantasy football players (or my opponents').
Okay then. This week we disagree on a whopping 11 games out of the 16 being played. We'll see if I can keep a grip on the lead as Adam lays all his chips on his fantasy teams. From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, we wish you a Merry Christmas!

Monday, December 19, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round


For the fifth season, a college football playoff is playing out here on Confessions of a Sportscaster!

Defending College Football Playoff and (two-time defending) Death to the BCS Playoffs Champion Alabama is our top seed this season. This sort of thing has been par for the course in the history of this tournament: favorites to win the national championship have tended to win this tournament. Of course, we've had some weird things happen. In 2013, Stanford would lose the Rose Bowl to Michigan State, but in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, the third-seeded Cardinal would win the title while the Spartans were on the wrong end of a 5-12 upset. 2014 had a few first round upsets, but chalk got rocked the rest of the way instead of the chaos of reality. Last year had our first real Cinderella story as 14th-seeded MAC champ Bowling Green pulled a pair of upsets before the Tide struck the midnight bell en route to another title.

So how much chalk are we destined to see this year? Will we end up with the same Final Four as the committee created? Or will someone sneak their way in?

To find out, we're going the only way we can really do this: simulation. But we're not simulating these games at neutral sites. Higher seeds have been granted home field advantage this week and each of the next two weeks en route to the title game that gets played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena because where else? Why not play college football's biggest game on the sport's grandest stage? Forget Glendale; the Grandaddy of Them All has to have this honor.

So to determine the teams fighting for this privilege, we're going to take that home field advantage for each of the eight games and take weather as accurately as possible from real conditions and factor that into the simulations. In an attempt to make sure injured players aren't having an impact, I'm using injury data from Don Best's handicapping website to adjust depth charts accordingly. I'm going to simulate each game as a best of three in an attempt to factor out luck, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Without further ado, let's get to the football!

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Game Notes: Robert Morris University @ North Central College (12/17/16)

Final Score
Robert Morris 77, NCC 70

Game Summary
It was a subpar game for the Cardinals (6-3) as they struggled to get anything going for about three or four minutes. The Eagles (9-4) led 6-3 early before the Cardinals got a 7-0 run going to take control, but the Eagles were right back in it and took control of the game. Robert Morris would lead by as many as seven with about two minutes before halftime, but the Cardinals scored eight unanswered points to take the lead, but the Eagles grabbed it right back to take a 34-33 lead into the break. North Central came out flat to start the second half as Robert Morris opened the first three minutes on a 12-2 run to take firm control of this one. They pushed the lead as high as 15 a couple minutes later before the Cardinals finally woke up. They cut the lead to as low as eight over the next three minutes, but the Eagles hit a pair of threes to ultimately end the Cardinal threat. They led by as many as 17 before the Cardinals chipped away in garbage time.


Key Stats
  • Darius Paul (RMU): 7-10 FG (1-1 3PT), 5-6 FT; 20 pts, 10 reb (4 off). I figured going into this one that we would have a good battle between Paul and Alex Sorenson, and Paul clearly won the war. He was able to get to the basket with relative ease and did a good job on the glass. He was also a solid defender with his length down low.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 11-20 FG (1-3 3PT); 23 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Don't let this stat line fool you; Henry had a good game overall, but most of his points came late when the game was effectively over. He got a few easy layups in the final minute to pad his stats, and seemed to be one of the few who cared in this game. He was one of the guys who helped bring North Central back while it was still a game, but he committed a dumb loose ball foul, his fourth, that forced him out of the game.
  • Jack Bronec (NCC): 3-4 FG, 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 9 reb (3 off), 1 stl. Jack was a key for me coming into the year as someone who was supposed to show a lot of promise, and as a key piece off the bench to relieve Alex Sorenson. He did a phenomenal job of that tonight as one of the few guys who seemed to really care, as he did a great job on the boards, and showed some promise offensively (though his miss was pretty ugly, and was a makable shot). That one nit aside, he played very well.
Final Thoughts
I don't know why, but this team is struggling. Granted, they played without Connor Raridon, who has a hand injury and will miss a significant chunk of time, but I don't know that Raridon would have made a difference. The Cardinals were a bipolar team today; they had stretches where they played to their potential, and other times where they looked lackadaisical. I've heard secondhand talk about D-Term at North Central being a cause, and maybe there's something to it.

If you look at the minutes, Jagger Anderson sat for a big chunk of the second half after some lazy defense, and Alex Sorenson only played 24 minutes, possibly because he also looked out of it. It made for some good minutes for guys like Bronec and Matt Cappelletti, who is going to get some significant playing time with Raridon out.

North Central closes out the calendar year on the road, as they play a tournament in Fort Lauderdale next week, then have a week off before heading up to Stevens Point. After that, we resume CCIW play. Hopefully the Cardinals have their act together for Augustana and North Park, two tough tests for when we resume.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

Huh. That went well.

Week 14 is in the books, Week 15 is upon us, and Adam is on his way to Dallas to take on his transfer at work. I will miss him dearly, but thankfully this feature will live on. I enjoy this picking games against the spread thing too much to let it go, and I think Adam has fun with it too. And it's not like he won't be back up here at some point.

But this past week I gave him the going away gift of a good, old-fashioned butt whooping as I took seven of our eight disputed games to move ahead of him into third place. The standings on ESPN are now out of whack, and I'm surprised it took until Week 14 for there to be a goof up. Adam picked the Cardinals over the Dolphins on our Week 14 post, but took the Dolphins on ESPN by accident. I double checked precedent, and by rule, the standings on Confessions of a Sportscaster overrule those on ESPN, so in actuality I have a two game lead on him. He has one more point on ESPN than he should, but it doesn't impact the order of the standings this week.

Logan remains in first place thanks to his early success in "minority" picks, where he and only one other person correctly picked a game, but he had a down week in that department. He made up for it elsewhere though to remain in first place. If you want a full breakdown of our picks by who has made them in relation to everyone else, you can view that breakdown here. My thanks go to Adam for coming up with this idea last year.

I also want to do a shameless plug before I get into the picks for the week. This weekend is also the opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, which should be exciting. It's not too late to get your predictions in and see how you think the simulator will end up working.

This week, Adam went into full panic mode. Given the flip in the standings, he wanted another shakeup and so his daughter Addison helped. This week Addy (and Adam by proxy) and I disagree on eight games out of the 16. Let's see if the lead here changes hands again or if I can maintain the control that I have just gained.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Announcing, Insider Information, and "Wakeyleaks"

Photo by Marc Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports)
If you're a play by play man, color commentator, or other announcer for a sports team, let's face it: you've got a pretty awesome job. You get paid to watch sports, and in a lot of instances you get a look at a team that most people can only dream of.

Which is why the story out of Wake Forest is just so bizarre. Yesterday the news broke of an investigation into leaked game planning information for the Demon Deacons' football team pinned the release of insider information on the team's radio voice Tommy Elrod. As a background, Elrod played at Wake Forest, then coached there for a number of years. But in 2014 when a new head coach came aboard, he wasn't retained, and instead moved to the broadcast booth.

So what's the motivation here? Money and revenge are the two theories on the table. I don't know how common people with inside access are bribed for this sort of information or if so, how much money would typically be offered. Revenge seems more likely; you lose a job for seemingly no reason other than you aren't a guy known by the new boss, it's not hard to imagine you'd want to get back at him. But leaking information to opponents is unheard of.

Needless to say, Elrod has been fired. I wouldn't be surprised if he's effectively blacklisted from working in college football ever again considering his actions. I hope for his sake his revenge was worth it.

That's what's so puzzling to me. I've got an in at North Central for both the men's and women's basketball teams. Especially on the women's side: Michelle Roof has been very gracious with me about allowing me access to the program. Obviously I don't set foot in the locker room or anything like that, but I've got an open invitation to practices, and I've been a guest at the last three postseason banquets. She's mentioned some things that I'm sure aren't supposed to be public knowledge, and so I do my best to not mention a lot of those things on here or elsewhere online. I know I'm in a favored position, and I'm not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

And even if I had done something like that, what good does revenge by leaking inside information do? It makes me look bad, you could argue it makes the programs that take advantage of it look bad, and you get a whole scandal like what "Wakeyleaks" has turned into, even though the name is fantastic. The lesson to be learned here is that when you have a privileged position, don't do anything to jeopardize it. And if you get snubbed, revenge is probably not the best answer.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

We have just four weeks and 64 games to go. I need to get my butt in gear here.

I'm back in the basement after a subpar Week 13. Fortunately for me, Adam and I ended up splitting our disputed games evenly for the second straight week, but I've fallen back down into a tie for last place. Logan remains in first place in our group, holding a four game lead over Adam. Much of this is thanks to his dominance in minority games (games where he and one other person picked a team). You can view a full breakdown of those picks here.

Now that we're back to a full 16 game slate, I have to really break out if I want to avoid last place. This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games. Let's get to it!

Monday, December 5, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

Ladies and gentlemen, it has all come down to this.

14 weeks and hundreds of games have narrowed down the 128 teams in college football. The ten conferences have crowned their champions. All that remains is to take them, and six deserving at large teams, and put them into a bracket to determine our national champion.

This is the system designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in their classic depicted here: a more equitable college football playoff where everyone gets an opportunity to prove they belong. We also add to the excitement and enhance the regular season by giving home field advantage to the higher seeds for the first three rounds.

In their system, a selection committee still decided the field. I don't have those resources at my disposal, so I instead take a number of metrics and use these to help me in my decision making process: rankings of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). I organically try to combine all of these to build the fairest playoff bracket that I can.

And so, without further ado, here is your 2016 Death to the BCS Playoff field, seeded from 1-16.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 14

I've got a lot to catch up on.

This was Championship Weekend, with eight conference title games and a de facto title game being played, while two conferences wrapped up their regular seasons. This leaves me with one final batch of Playoff Points to calculate.

Most teams' numbers will end up remaining the same compared to last week; because not every conference has a title game I don't calculate conference championship games in Playoff Points. This means no receiving points for the victory, and no update to the victors' win totals or losers' loss totals. Some of these games may boost teams' scores based on early season matchups though, which is why I have to run the numbers one final time.

If you want one final reminder of how this works, my season introduction post has a primer on this metric. Let's check the stats one final time!


Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
NCC 84, IWU 75

Game Summary
This was a game that took a little while to really get going, and while the Cardinals (4-1, 1-0) were able to open the scoring and take an early lead, the Titans (5-1, 0-1) started hitting jumpers to grab the lead and control of this one. With foul trouble plaguing the Cardinals, the Titans were able to build a nine point lead with about five and a half minutes to play. But the Cardinals would not be denied, embarking on a 9-2 run to close the gap and even took the lead late in the half before a three pointer gave the Titans a 35-33 advantage heading to the locker room. The Titans returned to the floor guns blazing, pushing the lead back up to seven a couple times and maintaining control before the Cardinals finally tied the game back up a little over six minutes in. A quick two point lead a minute later was immediately wiped out on a three, and a bit of a back and forth ensued. The Titans seemed poised to control the ending with a three with 4:24 to play, but a conventional three point play sparked an 8-0 Cardinal run, and North Central was able to put the game away from there.
(skip ahead to about the 2:40:00 mark for the men's game)

Key Stats
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-21 FG (2-7 3PT), 5-6 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 1 stl. This was a pretty quiet 25 for Sorenson, but in terms of minutes it was an efficient 25 points. Sorenson was plagued by bulls*** officiating foul trouble and had to sit for a big chunk of the first half, as well as significant time in the second half, but he hit some key buckets when he did see the floor to help keep the Cardinals in the game.
  • Erwin Henry (NCC): 4-7 FG (1-4 3PT), 8-8 FT; 17 pts, 13 reb (1 off), 5 ast, 1 blk. Erwin definitely rebounds bigger than his size and has shown such this season, but I was flabbergasted when I heard his stat line after the game. 13 rebounds and five assists is an incredible floor game. He hit a few key shots to keep the Cardinals around early in the game, then hit eight straight free throws, including a pair of technical free throws, to ice the game.
  • Trevor Seibring (IWU): 6-13 FG, 4-7 FT; 16 pts, 6 reb (2 off). Seibring is Wesleyan's best player, and was the guy to stop if the Cardinals wanted to win. The Titans got some key contributions from a few of their guards to help their early control in this one, but North Central did a pretty good job overall of containing Seibring, though he did show his skills more than once. He also flopped to draw an offensive foul on Sorenson, which was his second of the game and forced Todd Raridon to pull him out.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 82 (4-2, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 69 (2-4, 0-1)
  • North Park 87 (5-0, 1-0), @ Augustana 78 (5-2, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 70 (4-2, 1-0), Millikin 59 (0-6, 0-1)
  • BYE: Carroll (4-1, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I usually don't like to talk about this a ton, especially after a win, but the officiating in this game was awful. Both head coaches were barking at the referees all night, and while I can't recall any specific "NCC got away with that one" calls, the Titans benefited from this as well. I already mentioned the Seibring flop, but Sorenson's third foul was also an iffy one. The team argued about his fourth as well because he was "in the circle" and vertical, but he had also jumped, and I didn't really have any issue with that foul call. Fans on both sides were upset with how the game was called, so maybe it was officiated "fairly," albeit poorly.

Either way, this was a huge win for North Central after a tough loss to Platteville on Tuesday. The slow-developing offense didn't kill them in this one, and Jack Bronec played pretty well in foul trouble relief of Sorenson. Jagger Anderson also came off the bench in this one, but he responded very well to the role. It wasn't North Central's best game, but it was enough. NCC closes out their five game homestand on Wednesday as they welcome in Carthage. I will not be at the mic on Wednesday due to another commitment, but you can catch the game on nctv17.com at 7pm and see the Cardinals back in action.

Game Notes: (WBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/3/16)

Final Score
IWU 118, NCC 113 (OT)

Game Summary
This was another instant classic to add to the rivalry's illustrious history, as an early 5-0 run by the Cardinals (3-2, 0-1) gave them a 5-2 lead, but the Titans (4-3, 1-0) responded with six straight, and the seesaw battle was on. The Cardinals led by as many as seven late in the first quarter, but only carried a 24-23 lead into the second quarter. The Cardinals hit three straight threes to give themselves a six point lead, but the Titans would not go away, building a five point lead of their own. North Central stormed back and built a six point lead, but blew a pair of layups in the closing seconds that kept it a 57-51 lead at the break. The Cardinals led for most of the third quarter, going up by as many as eight points, but the Titans exploded for a 13-1 run to flip the script, though the Cardinals kept it close, only trailing 81-79 after three. The Titans remained just out of reach for most of the quarter, possessing an answer for every Cardinal basket and they would lead by as many as six before the Cardinals finally pushed over the hump and were the first to the century mark. The Titans bounced back again, taking a pair of two point leads in the final minute-plus, but the Cardinals forced overtime on a layup with two seconds to go. The Titans opened the scoring with a three almost a minute into the extra session and would lead by as many as five before the Cardinals came back to tie the game at 113 with 1:18 to play. But the Titans got their game-winning bucket with a minute to play, and the Cardinals were unable to mount a final comeback.

Key Stats
  • NCC 2nd Half: 13-23 FT (56.5%). I talked to Michelle Roof after the game briefly, and we lamented letting this one get away. The Cardinals got a little sloppy in the second half, but this stat was the one that killed me. In fairness, the Titans missed seven free throws of their own in that half, but with the Cardinals controlling the game for much of the third quarter and being unable to take advantage of free opportunities, this is a loss that might linger a little bit.
  • Molly McGraw (IWU): 13-29 FG (4-8 3PT), 7-9 FT; 37 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 3 blk, 3 stl. McGraw is probably the Titans' best player, and she showed why Saturday night. Usually with The System it's forwards who do most of the scoring damage (and to be fair, this did happen too), but once in a while a guard will have the game of her life against the Cardinals. McGraw had hers, hitting the three to get the Titans started in overtime after scoring 20 points in the second half. The fact that she also filled the rest of the stat sheet speaks to how great a player she is.
  • Mayson Whipple (NCC): 12-22 FG (3-9 3PT), 2-4 FT; 29 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 8 ast. Mayson all but keyed North Central's comeback in this one, as she went into attack mode as the game went on. Her eight assists are a season high, and mark the sixth time in the past two seasons she's reached at least eight in a single game. Mayson also hit the clutch floater to force overtime.
North Central System Watch
  • IWU Turnovers: 28. The Titans are one of the most disciplined teams in the country, so their turnover numbers against The System are going to be a little bit lower than most teams the Cardinals face. But North Central forced 21 of those turnovers in the first 20 minutes, so credit Mia Smith for making adjustments at halftime and to her players for executing as the game went on. Of the 28 assists, 19 of those came off Cardinal steals, led by four for Paula Zerante, while four other players registered two apiece.
  • NCC 3PT: 14-51 (27.5%). This is about the normal pace North Central ends up on, though it ended up about a point and half lower than the season mark to date. North Central had stretches of relatively hot shooting, but not like the five in a row they hit to put Piedmont away a couple weeks ago.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 2. Anita Sterling picked up one late in the game, but someone else drew an offensive foul earlier on, and I didn't quite catch who. But it was good to see Anita get back to her usual self.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • Wheaton 71 (5-1, 1-0), @ Elmhurst 53 (6-1, 0-1)
  • @ Carthage 96 (4-3, 1-0), Millikin 80 (4-2, 0-1)
  • @ Augustana 88 (6-0, 1-0), North Park 85 (3-2, 0-1)
  • UW-Oshkosh 84, @ Carroll 51 (0-7, 0-0)
Final Thoughts
I mentioned it already, but this one hurt. North Central always seems to match up well with Illinois Wesleyan, as the Cardinals had won four of the last six matchups going into Saturday, and the prior few games at Merner against the team in green had been phenomenal. This one gets added to the lore, but with the wrong outcome. Hopefully though, going blow for blow for 45 minutes with one of the country's best teams will bode well going forward.


Over on the Wesleyan side, my best wishes go out to guard Gabrielle Holness, who suffered an injury to her right leg in the second quarter. She had to be helped back to the bench and was on crutches the rest of the evening. I made a point to go over and wish her well before I left for the evening, and she seemed to be in decent spirits (though in fairness, a win probably helps). It's my sincere hope that she'll be able to see the court again before season's end.


Back to North Central, things don't get any easier, as they head up Naper Boulevard to take on Wheaton College on Wednesday and try to snap Wheaton's current win streak in the rivalry at 14.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

Thanksgiving was largely kind to the coalition, as we chug along to the conclusion of the third quarter of our season. We like our group, Logan is our leader in the clubhouse, and we have a lot of football left to play.

I continue to be fascinated by the breakdown of our group's picks so far. Adam has had tremendous success in hero picks, but he finds himself three games out of the lead at this stage. Last week he had Aiden pick for him, and the kid came through pretty well: of our record 12 disputed games, we split those evenly down the middle. Aiden also went hero five times, winning three games. You should be very proud of your son, Adam.

We get our final byes this week, which makes sense because the number of games played is odd. I also had taken a game out of Grant's picks last week because he forgot to pick the Thursday night game in Week 11. Logan did that with the Detroit-Minnesota game last week, but the rest of us were split between the two teams. So I took my dad's advice and counted those as losses.

This week, Adam and I disagree on only six games out of the 15 being played. Let's see if I can climb out of this fourth place hole.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Game Notes: UW-Platteville @ North Central College (11/29/16)

Final Score
UW-Platteville 57, NCC 40

Game Summary
This was a tough matchup from the outset, but the Cardinals (3-1) were able to open up a 10-5 lead in the early going. The Pioneers (5-1) clamped down on defense and got their offense rolling though, exploding for a 22-4 run over the next ten minutes to take complete control of the game. North Central recovered a little bit and got a three at the buzzer to make it 31-24 heading into the break. Coach Raridon lit into his team in the locker room, and they responded in the first couple minutes, scoring five points on their first two possessions and were able to tie the game at 35 with about 12 minutes to play. But the Pioneers answered immediately to retake the lead, then got a three point play to extend the lead to five. A North Central bucket cut it to three, and the Pioneers responded with nine straight points before an NCC three with 6:35 to play marked the last points of the night the Cardinals would muster.

Key Stats
  • NCC: 16-55 FG (29.1%). The Pioneers came into this game holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor, and under 30 percent from deep. They seemed to be everywhere in their 2-3 zone last night and forced some tough shots, but the Cardinals were just as guilty for this. They had a lot of terrible possessions where they just passed the ball around the perimeter and no one tried to go create a shot until the shot clock was nearly out. They've done this for a chunk of the season to date, but it hadn't cost them until last night.
  • Robert Duax (UWP): 4-8 FG (2-3 3PT), 5-7 FT; 15 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Duax was Platteville's best player coming in, and he sure played like it in this one. Giving up nine rebounds to an opponent is one thing, but to one of their guards? Even if he's one of their leading rebounders, this is an embarrassing total to allow.
  • Alex Sorenson/Connor Raridon: 10-30 FG (2-10 3PT), 3-6 FT; 25 pts, 15 reb (3 off), 5 ast, 4 blk, 2 stl. This... is not ideal. Connor was repeatedly forced into tough fallaway shots all night, and Alex took seven threes, only hitting one. Part of that was a credit to the Pioneer defense for locking down the inside, but you need your best guys to play better than this if you want to win.
Final Thoughts
I don't know how well you'll be able to hear it on the video above, but Todd Raridon's voice was shot in the second half. He could be heard outside the locker room at halftime, he was that upset about what transpired in the first half. To the Cardinals' credit, the team responded early in the second half, but that energy only lasts so long.

All in all, this was an embarrassing loss. You're at home, you're ranked sixth in the country, and you're hosting a team you blew out by 30 at their place last year. This shouldn't happen. The thought I had right at the end last night was that this was a trap game. And the Pioneers sprung the trap perfectly.

I don't want to overreact to this loss too much; it's one game, and one game doesn't define a season. But if the Cardinals play like this against Illinois Wesleyan on Saturday, they're going to lose by at least 30. Hopefully they play sufficiently motivated and angry in that one.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Automatic Bid Games

Tuesday is normally my day of looking at NCSS rankings for college football. But at this point, we are done with all non-conference games, and this coming week is the slowest week in terms of college football games. However, this is a critical week for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Of our ten conferences at the FBS level, eight of them are large enough to accommodate conference championship games (and we'll have a ninth next year because the morons running the Big 12 decided to invalidate the regular season with one in a ten-team conference). The winners of seven of these games will receive automatic bids to the Death to the BCS Playoffs. The Big 12 doesn't have an official title game yet, but has a de facto one this year. And finally, the Sun Belt has a couple games that will impact the playoff picture.

So below, I will outline every game that impacts these automatic bids and how they play out with regards to the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Monday, November 28, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Mock Bracket

And now we get down to the nitty gritty.


I'm still in a state of mourning, but I'll get over it. Wheaton deserved its win on Saturday. And so did all of the teams who won this past weekend as the Death to the BCS Playoff race gets even more complicated.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a 16 team playoff at the highest level of college football, where all conference champions get an automatic bid, and the rest of the field is filled with at large teams. Those auto bids will all be settled next week: eight conference have a conference championship game, the Big 12 has a de facto championship game based on how the schedule aligned, and the Sun Belt will come down to a couple games and some tiebreakers to determine its champion.

From there, the field gets seeded from 1 to 16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. This means finishing in the top two will net you three home games, a #3 or #4 seeds gets you a pair, and finishing in the top eight gives you one in the first round. These figures all assume, of course, that chalk gets rocked. But how do we decide the seeding? Wetzel, Peter, and Passan's idea was for a selection committee to do so, but in my case, I do it myself with the help of some metrics. I use (to an extent) Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics all organically combine to build the exact playoff field.

And so, for the final time this season: let's create a mock bracket.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 13

Welp, just when we think things are pretty set, more chaos unfolds.

I'm also in mourning today as North Central lost to archrival Wheaton in the second round of the D-III Playoffs on Saturday. Never has holding onto the Little Brass Bell felt so hollow.

I imagine most of the rankings compared to last week are going to remain the same, with maybe some minor changes here and there. If you need a refresher on how these metrics work, you can view those in my season introduction post.

Let's check the numbers.


Sunday, November 27, 2016

Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (11/25/16)

Final Score
NCC 88, Aurora 78

Game Summary
This was a pretty tough game the whole way as the Cardinals (3-0) got out to an early lead, but a 7-0 Spartans (2-2) run gave Aurora the lead. The Cardinals battled back with a 10-0 run of their own to regain control and would lead by as many as 16 before ultimately taking a 47-37 lead into the break. The Spartans came out firing in the second half, cutting the lead down to three points early, but North Central answered with key baskets. The Spartans didn't give up, narrowing the lead to five with a little over seven minutes left, but the Cardinals held onto the ball for a minute and a half before getting a couple free throws, picked up a steal, and got a three to reopen the lead to 10. Aurora would get no closer than eight the rest of the way as the Cardinals picked up their third straight win and avenged last year's loss.

Key Stats
  • Connor Raridon (NCC): 8-14 FG (1-3 3PT), 6-9 FT; 24 pts, 3 reb (2 off), 9 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Todd Raridon has been riding his youngest son the last couple games, as Connor never left the floor on Friday. But he was phenomenal on offense, doing a lot of driving and fading away, but he also did a great job down low and distributing the ball. He looked possibly a little winded late in the game when he was missing free throws, but he played well again.
  • Aiden Chang (NCC): 6-10 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-4 FT; 19 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk. Aiden had arguably the best game of his career on Friday. His 19 points are a career high, and he came up with a few huge buckets. His old fashioned three point play capped North Central's 10-0 run in the first half, and he followed that up on the next possession with a four point play. He's really developing into a great player.
  • Aurora: 13-27 3PT (48.1%). As I was getting ready at Merner on Friday and looking over Aurora's stats, one thing caught my eye: this team can shoot. They were at 39-93 coming into this contest, good for a 41.9 percent clip. They eclipsed that in this game, as those threes are by and large what kept them in the game. Pat Kramp hit five of his six threes, and Ty Carlson added four on six attempts.
Final Thoughts
I definitely thought North Central was the better team in this one, and the argument was made that it shouldn't have been this close. The Cardinals won the rebounding battle 43-23 and shot 54.2 percent from the floor. But they let Aurora stay close thanks to their hot shooting, which isn't the greatest of signs, but it's still early in the season.

I was a little embarrassed by the perceived "home court advantage" in this one, as many Aurora faithful made the short trek to Naperville for this contest. This is a good thing for the sport, but they were very loud... significantly louder than the North Central faithful in attendance. Granted, this was a Black Friday game, but I was not encouraged by this. Hopefully conference play will be better.

Maybe the best part of this contest came right at the end. Multiple players dove for a loose ball along Aurora's bench and took out head coach Lance Robinson as well as pretty much completely destroying his chair. I didn't get a chance to take a picture of it, but one of the legs was completely bent out of shape. All parties involved were all right, which is the most important thing.

This was the second game of a five game home stand for the Cardinals. They return to action on Tuesday as they welcome in Wisconsin-Platteville for a 7:00 tip.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Game Notes: Alma College @ North Central College (11/23/16)

Final Score
NCC 78, Alma 59

Game Summary
This was a tight game early on as the Scots (1-3) took the early lead and traded baskets. The Cardinals (2-0) then embarked on a 13-0 run to take firm control of the ball game. The Scots did manage to keep it around that 10-12 point range for a decent amount of the half and even cut the lead to eight with about two minutes to go, but the Cardinals scored the half's final seven points to make it 43-28 at the break. Alma would get no closer than 14 in the second half, and North Central was able to send in the end of the bench for the final 110 seconds of the contest.

Key Stats

  • Connor Raridon (NCC): 10-13 FG (3-4 3PT), 1-2 FT; 24 pts, 10 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Connor's fifth career double double was a pretty efficient one, as he shot very well and had a great floor game. He commanded the boards well, distributed the ball well as the game went on, and played 37 minutes including some time bringing the ball up.
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 7-15 FG (2-6 3PT), 0-1 FT; 16 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. Kristen came to this game and noted that Alex played really well. He put up these numbers in just 25 minutes of action, which is pretty impressive. Given the lead he was able to sit for most of the second half to get Jack Bronec and Sam Fehrle some minutes, which was good. Alex struggled from deep a little bit, but he'll hit those shots when he needs to.
  • Trevor Gernaat (ALMA): 2-8 FG (2-6 3PT), 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast. Gernaat was the guy I was most worried about in this one having looked at the numbers. But the Cardinals did a great job keeping him in check tonight. He hit a couple threes, but the team as a whole shot just 27.3 percent from deep, with Gernaat hitting two of his team's six total threes. He also turned the ball over four times, so for the Cardinals to shut him down was a great sign.
Final Thoughts
Alma came into the season ranked #14 by D3Hoops.com, which some thought was a little high given what they lost. But they started this game very well despite getting stuck in traffic on the way to Naperville. Eventually they just succumbed to North Central's superior talent. I worry a bit that the Cardinals can get a little careless, but it's only their second game of the season. I'm not super concerned yet, not until we get into conference play. North Central will be back in action on Friday renewing the rivalry with Aurora University at home at 2:00pm.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, I'm trying to get a beat on everything. Yes, this means I'm spending my 27th birthday looking over NFL games.

Unfortunately this past week, I performed worse than NFL place kickers. I'm still out of the basement, but Adam took four of our five disputed games this past week to rebuild his lead over me. I also have a Google sheet with updated standings through last week with a breakdown of how we're picking in relation to each other.

We're done with bye weeks finally, so we're back to the 16 games. Adam has decided, despite his success last week, that he needs some mojo. He had Aiden pick games based on mascot names, and he would come up with the justifications. Because of that, the disparity this week is enormous. We disagree on a whopping 12 games, which I think is a COAS record.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a wonderful Thanksgiving!


Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Bad Calls, Missed Opportunities, and Lawsuits

I haven't paid a ton of attention to high school football in years. Aurora Christian had a strong football program when I was in high school, and they made three state title games in the six years after I graduated, winning two of them. Logan has been on the roster of Aurora Central Catholic's football team for four years, and they made the playoffs three of his years. None of those trips resulted in deep runs, but it's not like ACC was a slouch by any stretch of the imagination. I also called some DVC football games during my tenure at WONC, including an overtime thriller between Naperville North and Neuqua Valley, as well as one of the classic Naperville North-Naperville Central battles that ended up coming down to a missed field goal as time expired that allowed Central to escape with a win.

I can appreciate good football, even at the high school level. But I've also been critical of the powers that be at many levels of the sport... okay, mainly at the NFL, and to a degree at the Cartel that allowed the BCS to carry out injustice for so long. But bad decisions can stretch down even to the prep level. And we saw that in action over the weekend.


2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 13

We move on from my taking potshots at Nick Saban to Rivalry Week in college football! How fitting, then, that the fate of the universe will be decided in a second round playoff game in Naperville on Saturday. Beat Wheaton.

In the meantime, conference championship games will get decided this weekend. A few matchups are already set, but others require action to determine those matchups, which will help determine our Death to the BCS Playoffs field.

But there are also a number of non-conference games, but unlike last week, the cowardice is complete. Or at least, it should be. My season introduction post contains an explanation for how the NCSS metric works. Let's get to it!

Monday, November 21, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Mock Bracket

With the chaotic part of the week out of the way, it's time to sort through the craziness and establish a pecking order.

The D-III playoffs saw chalk advance, and a battle for the fate of the universe will take place in Naperville on Saturday as North Central gets a rematch with Wheaton in Round 2. Meanwhile, several teams are still fighting at the FBS level for conference championships and a berth in the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

This is a concept created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan several years ago, where instead of the BCS nonsense or the slightly improved, but in their eyes not quite there College Football Playoff, the Death to the BCS Playoff system is a 16 team field where every conference champion gets an automatic bid, and the rest of the field is filled with at large berths. The field is then seeded 1-16, with home field advantage given to the higher seeds in the first three rounds.

I credit them for this because it was originally their idea. They wanted a selection committee to select the teams and seedings. I've chosen for a few years to take their system and fill the field based on a little bit of the eye test on my part, as well as some metrics chosen to help remove any bias I may have. You will see listed after each team in this field a set of stats. I use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP) as well as computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), and organically combine all of these to build that 16 team field.

So without further ado, let's build a mock playoff field.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 12

Hope you enjoyed Nick Saban Is A Coward Week! All the games are in the books for the week, and the regular season is almost complete. There are just two weeks left, but we can worry about that in a bit.

There were a number of FCS games on the docket this past weekend, and those games are worth no Playoff Points, so we might see some shifts in the rankings from last week.

There was a little chaos as well this week, and we'll eventually see how that impacts the playoff picture. If you're unfamiliar with the Playoff Points system, you can view a primer in my season introductory post. Let's get to the scores.


Sunday, November 20, 2016

Game Notes: Piedmont College @ North Central College (11/18/16)

Final Score
NCC 101, Piedmont 67

Game Summary
It was a very sluggish start for both teams, but the Lions (1-1) got the first basket of the game to take the early lead. The Cardinals (1-0) finally broke through shortly after that, scoring nine unanswered points to take control, and they led 18-8 after one quarter. Piedmont scored the first four points of the second quarter, but then the Cardinals broke open the floodgates, hitting five straight threes to key a 15-1 run that turned a six point lead into 20, and the Cardinals only kept it up from there, raising the advantage to 30 by halftime. The Lions managed to trim the deficit to about 23 a couple times in the third quarter, but the Cardinals kept hitting big shots to increase the lead, and the Lions were unable to get over the hump. North Central sealed the Big Macs in the final minute to the delight of a player's family sitting behind me.

Key Stats
  • Anita Sterling (NCC): 4-7 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-6 FT; 15 pts, 4 reb, 2 stl. Anita isn't one of the primary offensive threats, but she has typically been pretty efficient on her shots. She led all scorers Friday night and did a nice job on the defensive end as well.
  • Siarra O'Neill (NCC): 3-8 FG (2-4 3PT); 8 pts, 2 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 1 blk. The numbers here aren't outstanding, but I was really impressed with O'Neill's game on Friday. She was driving hard to the basket a lot and shot well from beyond the arc, while also playing solid defense.
  • Jamie Cuny (NCC): 1-8 FG (all 3PT), 2-2 FT; 4 pts, 10 reb (4 off), 2 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk. Jamie struggled from beyond the arc in this one, but she was a dominant force on the glass and picked up her first block on the year. She wasn't playing safety as much as she has in prior years, so that explains the low block total on the night, but she did alter a number of other looks.
North Central System Watch
  • Piedmont Turnovers: 44. I'm sure every team looks at tape of this North Central team going in, so teams know what they're in for, but Piedmont looked utterly unprepared for this game. They committed 16 turnovers in the first quarter alone and were up to 30 by halftime. Many of these were passes well off the mark, but the Cardinals also picked up 23 teals, led by Paula Zerante's four.
  • NCC 3PT: 18-65 (27.7%). This is about par for the course for the Cardinals. They started very cold in this one, hitting just one of 11 attempts in the opening quarter. But they caught fire in the second quarter, hitting five in a row to break it open. If you're new to seeing stuff about North Central, know that they take this high number of threes every game, and percentage largely doesn't matter when you're taking that many; you'll eventually start hitting.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita picked up one charge fairly early in the game, keeping up her usual pace from prior years. The Cardinals did commit a couple charges early in the game, however.
Final Thoughts
I'm going to be honest, I expected a closer game. Piedmont was very good last year, and while they lost a few key pieces, they beat a pretty good Birmingham Southern team earlier in the week at home. I just think they were utterly unprepared for the intensity of North Central's defense, and it showed in the turnover numbers.

During halftime of this game I got a chance to say hello to a couple of leaders from the legendary 2015 Cardinal team in Tess Godhardt and Bobbi Johns. Both were very impressed with the play of the freshmen on this squad, as was I overall. They're going to be very valuable going forward, and this team might be a huge threat to the CCIW, maybe even bigger than anticipated.

It's a fair amount of time on the road now for the Cardinals, as this was their lone non-conference home game. They play in the Battle of Chicago Avenue on Tuesday and aren't back home until December 3rd when we kick off CCIW play against Illinois Wesleyan.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

The coalition is chugging along, and I'm continuing to move on up!

It was a reasonably strong week all around, but we have a new leader in the clubhouse: Logan took over first place after a strong week last week. Meanwhile, I took four of five disputed games from Adam. He still holds a one game lead over me, but he's out of the top spot now. We're all still fairly bunched up at this stage, though.

I have a Google sheet with updated standings through last week with a breakdown of how we're picking in relation to each other. I now have the best hero pick percentage, but out of three games, you can scream "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!" at me. I can take it.

This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14 again. With a chance to tie or overtake him, and possibly go grab first place, let's get to the picks!

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

2016-17 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Yesterday saw the official start of the NCAA Division III basketball season. It also saw me get a jump on the season with a preview of North Central's women's basketball team. Today, I'm switching my focus over to the men.

Like with the women, the main version of the website contains a standings page for the CCIW for the men over on the right sidebar. If you're viewing the mobile version of Confessions of a Sportscaster, this feature won't be available, so you'll need to scroll to the bottom and click to view the full version of the website. I figured this would be a better feature than just taking screenshots of an Excel spreadsheet like I did last season.

Anyway, now that NCC's roster is up and I have a chance to look things over, let's take a gander at what to expect for the coming winter.


Game Notes: College of Faith vs Hope College (11/16/12)

I normally save these kinds of features for games I attend, and try to do them immediately after the game is over, but I'm doing a retroactive Game Notes on the fourth anniversary of this game because, why not. This game deserves its recognition.

Final Score
Hope 118, College of Faith 20

Game Summary
Where do I even begin? The Dutchmen (1-0) won the opening tip, got a dunk four seconds into the game, and it just went downhill from there. The Mighty Believers (0-1) (yes, that was their actual team name at the time), fell behind 7-0 before scoring their first basket 100 seconds into the game. After going to their bench to get the starters some rest following a made free throw, the Dutch went on a 24-0 run spanning six and a half minutes to blow it open. The Mighty Believers managed a few more points, breaking into double digits with a little over five minutes to play in the half, but Hope scored the final 19 points of the stanza to lead 67-11 going into the break. They scored four unanswered to start the second half, surrendered a jumper, and then the floodgates opened as Hope went on an 11 minute, 30-0 run capped by a three that put Hope over the century mark before a three with about seven and a half minutes left snapped the drought. The Dutchmen had a chance to make it a 100 point margin, but after a missed jumper at the end of the shot clock with 32 seconds left resulted in an offensive rebound, they opted to run out the clock and end this affair.

Key Stats
  • College of Faith: 6-50 FG (12.0%), 3-14 3PT (16.7%), 5-24 FT (20.8%). I've seen teams shoot poorly before, but never like this. The three point performance I can understand; that's not out of the realm of possibility. But to only make three of your 36 two point shot attempts?! Granted, Hope played stellar defense, but still! The free throw performance is just inexcusable.
  • Nate Snuggerud (HOPE): 13-13 (2-2 3PT), 1-2 FT; 29 pts, 11 reb (2 off), 3 stl. If only he had made that second free throw. Even so, a perfect day from the field is impressive, and that he made it a double-double in just 17 minutes of action is icing on the cake.
  • Caleb Byers (HOPE): 8-9 FG, 3-6 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 5 stl. For reference: Byers averaged 5.3 points per game in 26 games that season, including 11 starts. But I feel safe assuming he never had a game quite like this one, especially since he did all that damage in just 12 minutes.
Final Thoughts
I've never seen a game like this one. I never will again. That's what makes this one so special. The paid attendance was only 56. Counting players, coaches, officials, and game staff, that makes me one of roughly 100 people who saw this game. I will tell my grandchildren about this game one day, they will think I'm making it up, and I will show them the picture I took of the scoreboard at the end as proof that this actually happened and I was there.

Photo by Robert Kurtycz (Hope Athletic Department)
Hope opened that season ranked #7 in the country according to D3hoops.com. They followed this win up with a loss to North Central, who would go on to a Final Four. The Dutchmen would finish 18-9 overall, losing in the MIAA Championship Game at Calvin. College of Faith, meanwhile, has expanded to multiple locations in the United States. Their uniforms are less intramural-like, but the NCAA has taken a hard look at the school. They have their place, but on a football field or basketball court against NCAA teams in games that count... sadly, no. That means that that game I announced on the afternoon of November 16, 2012 is of the type that will never occur again. It is lost to history, but it will always live on in my memories.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

2016-17 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

Even in the midst of a busy football time where the NFL is still in the thick of the regular season, the FBS is approaching its climax, and D-III begins its playoffs this weekend, one of my great loves begins anew.

It's time for another college basketball season, as I begin my tenth year of paying attention to the Division III level of hoops to some degree. It has stretched from casual following and researching for games I called when I was an undergrad at North Central, to now my being an unabashed NCC homer and ardent disciple of The System. The season officially begins today, but North Central's first game is not for another few days yet.

One feature I decided to add for this year can be found on the right sidebar on the main site (but unfortunately is not available on the mobile site, so phone readers will need to view the full web page) in the form of a standings list for the CCIW. I will try to update it following every team playing games over the course of the season. Last year I started taking screenshots of standings and throwing them in every post following conference games, but I want to have a more permanent, updatable feature on the site for this season.

So with a couple days to prepare for Year Six of the gradual destruction of my vocal cords, let's take a look at North Central's women's basketball program.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

Good morning, and happy Nick Saban Is A Coward Week!

This week means that we're almost through our entire regular season in college football. Division III just announced its playoff field on Sunday with a potential rematch for the fate of the universe looming in Round 2 before the inevitable Purple Bowl in about a month. But in the FBS level, as we saw yesterday, time is running out and chaos is starting to reign. I love it.

This week's cowardice is joined by multiple other non-conference games that are not cowardice, which is nice after a week where literally the only non-conference games were between two independents and a third independent hosting an FCS game. A primer on how this metric works can be found in my season introductory post.

Monday, November 14, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

Wow. Okay, now comes the fun part.

Since Week 6, I've been building mock brackets for this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs. It's been a relatively easy ride so far, but things are about to become much more complicated given all of the losses this past week. It's meant a tradeoff of first place teams in multiple conferences and it will require a rearranging of at large teams going in.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, it's pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs is the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a more equitable college football playoff system (where the current system is an improvement, but not enough of one) where we have a 16 team field. 10 of the spots go automatically to the champions of each FBS conference, then the rest of the field is filled with at large bids. The 16 teams are seeded and set up in a standard bracket. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeded team, so getting a top eight seed guarantees you home field in round one, a top four seed guarantees it for two rounds, and a top two seed means you won't have to leave home until the title game in Pasadena.

So how do we decide the at large teams, and what's the seeding process? In my borrowing of their system, I work as the sole member of a selection committee, but I use multiple metrics to help build the field. The decisions are made with seven metrics in mind: Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics kind of organically mesh together, with the computer rankings inserted to help offset any bias I may have while also bringing margin of victory into play.

So with all of this in mind, after much thought, here is the latest mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 11

All right. Who broke college football?

I thought it was crazy enough that Mount Union, one of the purple-clad titans of Division III who we can all but pencil in for the Stagg Bowl on a yearly basis, lost a regular season game for the first time in 113 tries. But then all of the nonsense happened at the FBS level as well, and suddenly I have a lot to sort out.

Fortunately, this is the easy part. This morning, I am running through all of the results from the past week and updating our Playoff Points numbers, which might see some stark differences from last week. If you're unfamiliar with how this metric works, you can view that in my season introduction post.


Thursday, November 10, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

We're into Week 10, and the gap has narrowed.

I turned into Steph Curry this past Monday from Thursday through about 6:00 on Sunday evening, winning my first nine picks before coming back down to earth. In the end I took four of the six disputed games between Adam and I, and I've climbed out of the group basement. Adam is now tied with Logan atop our standings, and the difference between first place and last place is just five games. Parity; we has it.

If you want to look at a breakdown of how we've picked games based on majority/minority and things of that nature, I have all that set up on a Google sheet. My thanks do go to Adam for coming up with this idea midway through last season, and I've tried to keep it updated all year.

This week, he and I disagree on just five games out of the 14 being played. Let's see if I can keep the momentum going.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

We interrupt any and all political bullcrap you may be reading today to bring you a little something football related, in hopes that maybe it will distract you from our impending doom.

Whatever side of the aisle you may fall on, we can pretty much all agree that football is awesome, and as we start to see the regular season wind down the games become more and more critical.

For the last several weeks, we've seen very little change in our NCSS rankings. Last week saw just a swap at the top, but other than that teams appear to have settled into their final spots... at least until the final two weeks when we get a bevy of non-conference games, including the annual Nick Saban Is A Coward Week.

If you want a refresher on how this metric works, you can check that out in my season introductory post. Let's look at this week's rankings.

Monday, November 7, 2016

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

The undefeated team count remains at five after ten weeks, but it doesn't make building the Death to the BCS Playoffs bracket any less complicated.

I'm doing a week by week mock of the tournament following every week, beating out the College Football Playoff committee by several weeks, in a series of practice exercises for the real thing following the end of the regular season.

The methodology behind this is pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs are a 16 team playoff field designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan where all conference champions get an automatic berth to the playoffs, and the rest of the field is filled in with at large teams. While their format had a committee selecting the field, I form a committee of one, albeit a semieducated one who tries to compile a number of metrics to help make an educated decision.

Using Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings from Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), I will seed the field from 1-16. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeds, and the championship game is played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Let's see what the latest mock road to Southern California maps out as.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

Another week of football is in the books. We're starting to see some playoff clinches in other divisions, as North Central clinched its first berth in the D-III playoffs in three years. We're still a long ways away in the FBS level, though.

We still have about a month's worth of football left to play, and we've definitely seen some separation at the top in terms of Playoff Points, but the middle of the pack is still tightly bunched up. We'll look at what that means for the playoffs later this afternoon.

If you are unfamiliar with how Playoff Points work, you can view a primer on those in my season introduction post. A look at last week's rankings can be found here.