Monday, February 26, 2018

Good Teams Dance in March

Legendary Aurora Christian basketball coach Don Davidson had a saying, one that I first heard as a senior in high school when we won a regional for the first time in a while and made it to the sectional final: "Good teams play in March." We played in March that year, losing to the hosting Byron Tigers, future home of North Central point guard Mayson Whipple. Mayson got to play in March once at the collegiate level: as a freshman on the legendary 2015 team. The men have gotten to this level in each of the past two years. And now in 2018, the Cardinals return to The Dance.

Screenshot from NCAA.com
North Central had to wait it out this year after losing a CCIW Championship game for the first time, 77-74 at Augustana on Saturday. In a mock selection process on Hoopsville, North Central was one of the bubble teams that got in. Based on the committee's final set of regional rankings, they appeared to agree, and North Central is in. This is the tenth NCAA Tournament berth for the Cardinals, third in a row, and fifth in seven years.

The Cardinals are one of three CCIW teams to make it to The Dance, along with auto bid winner Augustana, who picked up their sixth CCIW Tournament championship over the weekend, and Illinois Wesleyan, who was a bubble team after dropping a pair of games to North Central over the weekend but had a strong enough resume to make it in. This makes eleven years running of the CCIW getting at least one extra bid, and the sixth time in seven years that the conference has gotten two at large berths.

So with all this in mind, let's take a trip up I-94 to see where North Central will be playing, and who will be joining them.

Friday, February 23, 2018

2018 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament Preview

Tonight... the madness begins.

I suppose it has technically already begun; many conference tournaments around Division III are already well underway. But the CCIW, with just four teams surviving beyond the 25 game gauntlet, waits until the weekend to decide its automatic entrant into the NCAA Tournament. Enjoy this; it's the last time the top four are guaranteed entry into this contest.

I've only written about the ones North Central makes, so there's no writeup for the women's tournament being held down in Bloomington this weekend. I do, however, want to take a look at one taking place out west starting tonight.


Thursday, February 22, 2018

2018 NCC Women's Basketball Recap

These are always the posts I don't like writing. It means my job of yelling is done as I hibernate my homerism for seven or eight months.

At the same time, putting this season in the rear view mirror will probably be a little therapeutic. And so with that thought in mind, let's look at the 2017-18 North Central Cardinals women's basketball season.


Wednesday, February 21, 2018

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

And so for the last time this season, I take a look at what the NCAA is thinking before all the information comes in.

Once we hit February every winter, the NCAA begins releasing sets of regional rankings to help give everyone a picture of where teams are in the mix of things. The first set from this season I covered has a nice primer on how these rankings get determined, and Ryan Scott from D3Hoops wrote a good article on the process as well.

In this third set, records against regionally ranked foes comes into play as they did last week, but with this set, there's an important caveat to take into it, especially with regards to the CCIW: these rankings only take into account games played through Sunday. Yesterday's results have no bearing on these rankings. This week's results will get compiled into the fourth set of rankings, which will come up once the NCAA Tournament brackets have been released.

So with all of this in mind, let's take a look at the third set of regional rankings.


Game Notes: (WBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (2/20/18)

Final Score
Augustana 86, NCC 63

Game Summary
This one started okay for the Cardinals (5-20, 3-13), who were able to keep pace early with the Vikings (15-10, 8-8) and even held a four point lead at 14-10 with about two minutes to play before taking a 16-15 lead into the second quarter. Augie opened the second quarter with back to back threes though to open up a 21-16 lead, though the Cardinals wouldn't stay down for long as Siarra O'Neill went on a personal 8-2 run to give the Cardinals the lead back. But after Andrea Dickerson tied the game at 29 again, the Vikings went on a 12-0 run to open the game up, though a Hannah Vitkus three made the margin a single digit one before the break. Then the Cardinals went cold, failing to score for over four minutes of the third while the Vikings slowly started to pull away, leading by as many as 21 before taking a 64-46 edge into the final quarter of the season. Augie pushed the margin as high as 27 before Mark Beinborn called off the dogs, and Michelle Roof was able to get both Mayson Whipple and Michaela Reedy off the floor with about a minute to go to standing ovations for their four years of service to the program.

Key Stats
  • AUG: 30-35 FT (85.7%). This was one of the biggest stats to take away from this one. North Central was in foul trouble pretty much all night and Augustana took full advantage of it. It's hard to pick out just one player for this, because they were all pretty phenomenal.
  • Siarra O'Neill (NCC): 5-18 FG (0-9 3PT); 10 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 2 stl. Siarra all but singlehandedly kept the Cardinals in the game in the second quarter with that aforementioned personal 8-2 run that included some pretty impressive fallaways and a nice layup. The three point line kind of tainted the night a little bit, but it wasn't just her. More below.
  • Mayson Whipple (NCC): 5-14 FG (2-10 3PT), 0-2 FT; 12 pts, 4 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. I'm sure she wished she hit a couple more shots, but all in all it was a fairly nice sendoff for the senior leader. She was able to attack the basket with some success and had some good looks from deep, but they just weren't falling last night. All told, she finishes her career with 946 points (she would have joined the 1000 point club had she not gotten hurt last year) and 334 assists (3rd most in program history, and probably would have finished second, again, without that injury).
North Central "System" Watch
  • Augie Turnovers: 11. Not a good enough total. Augie played a press defense as well that helped force 21 turnovers for their part, though the Cardinals did wreak a little havoc. Siarra O'Neill had two of North Central's seven steals.
  • NCC 3PT: 5-41 (12.2%). Really, this was the game. The Cardinals got plenty of open looks, but when O'Neill is 0-9, senior Michaela Reedy goes out with an 0-8 night, and even Mayson Whipple only went 2-10, you're gonna have a bad time.
  • NCC FT: 6-11 (54.5%). The Achilles heel reared its head again tonight. Mayson lamented missing her two attempts in her final game, but the rest of the roster struggled as well. For the season, the Cardinals clocked a 60.5 percent clip at the line. This has to improve next year.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • IWU 82 (22-3, 15-1), @ ELM 61 (13-12, 9-7)
    • Illinois Wesleyan clinches the #1 seed and hosting rights for the CCIW Tournament
  • @ CAR 90 (18-7, 11-5), CRL 67 (8-17, 5-11)
  • @ MIL 85 (8-17, 3-13), NPU 66 (9-16, 4-12)
  • Bye: WHE (21-4, 14-2)
  • (MBK): NCC 83 (18-7, 11-5), @ IWU 74 (19-6, 12-4)
    • North Central clinches the #3 seed in the CCIW Tournament
    • Augustana clinches the #1 seed and hosting rights for the CCIW Tournament
Final Thoughts
As much as I'd love to point at the free throw and foul disparity and scream about how the Cardinals got screwed, it wouldn't be true. Going 5-41 from deep will kill you every time. This isn't to say that the officiating wasn't questionable last night (the clues are all here on Confessions of a Sportscaster if you know where to look), but it didn't impact the outcome of the game. Michelle Roof got a warning very early in this one for calling out the officials for some poor calls early, but as the game went on she was imploring the team to stop fouling.

This mercifully ends what ultimately was a bad season. It's the fifth 20 loss campaign in program history but the first since 1994. Michelle Roof did express her optimism for next year with the pieces coming in (of which one is confirmed, but I'm sure there's more in the pipeline). One thing I will say: even though I watched a lot of games that went very poorly for the team in red and white, these ladies never gave up. Even last night, they played their hearts out and really, they did all season. I'm proud of this group for keeping their heads up all year long.

Augustana, meanwhile, follows up a conference tournament year with an 8-8 campaign, though they still have some good pieces in place especially on the perimeter. They missed the tournament though, with Elmhurst edging them out with a 9-7 mark, though the Blue Jays are all but certain to be the sacrificial lamb to Illinois Wesleyan, who went 15-1 in the conference this year and are probably on a collision course with Wheaton for the CCIW title.

Later today I'll have a look at the NCAA's third set of regional rankings. I'll very briefly touch on the women's side of Cardinal basketball with more of a look at the rest of the conference (i.e. Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton) as well as the men's rankings. Then, probably tomorrow, I'll do a season recap for the Cardinals' season and bring everything full circle.

Monday, February 19, 2018

One More to Go: A CCIW Update

It's an annual tradition, though maybe not unlike any other.

Tomorrow is the final day of the regular season in the CCIW, and actually the final time that we'll have regular season games on this day after just two years of the return to nine teams in the conference. Next season, the conference tournaments will expand from four teams to six in both men's and women's basketball. It's going to make more games matter at the end and possibly bolster resumes when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. But that's next year.

With the final day approaching, I always take the time leading up to it to look over the conference and see what the tournament scenarios are. This is where it's handy to have access to the list of CCIW tiebreakers, which was last updated in the fall of 2014 and may need to be updated slightly with Carroll's return. Fortunately, any updates that would need to be made won't impact either race. Also, compared to prior years, this year's post will be so much simpler than any other. As with last year, my thanks goes to the D3Boards community for helping sort through all of this.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Game Notes: (MBK) Carroll University @ North Central College (2/14/18)

Final Score
Carroll 77, NCC 73 (OT)

Game Summary
This one started well enough for the Cardinals (16-7, 9-5), who put the clamps down defensively and opened an 8-0 lead on the Pioneers (10-13, 5-9) five minutes in. Carroll worked its way back in a little bit before the Cardinals started to pull away, making the lead double digits about 10 minutes in. After a Carroll timeout, Blaise Meredith forced an open court steal and dunked it home to make it 20-7 and seemingly putting the Cardinals in total control. North Central pushed the lead as high as 19 with a minute and a half to go, but Carroll closed the half on a 6-0 run to make it 40-27 at the break. After a Carroll three to open the second half, the Cardinals went on an 11-0 run to push the lead to 21 just three minutes into the second half. Then the bottom started to fall out. The Pioneers slowly chipped away at the lead, though the Cardinals still seemed to be in control, leading by 14 with about five and a half minutes to play. With just over three to go the Pioneers cut it to single digits, but even then the Cardinals still looked to be in pretty good shape, leading by six with just under a minute to play. But Troy Howat buried a three with 38 seconds left, the Cardinals blew a transition opportunity, and after a stop, Alex Sorenson came up empty at the free throw line, and Kale Maupin buried the tying three with eight seconds to go. Connor Raridon missed a desperation leaner at the buzzer, and the game went to overtime at 69-all. The Cardinals took a pair of two point leads in the extra session, but couldn't extend the advantages. Joel Heesch put the Pioneers ahead for good with 13 seconds left, Blaise Meredith rimmed out a go-ahead three on the ensuing possession, and Tanner Zaeske split four free throws to put it out of reach.

Key Stats
  • Tanner Zaeske (CRL): 5-9 FG (3-5 3PT), 3-7 FT; 16 pts, 6 reb (1 off), 1 blk. Zaeske didn't have a great night at the line, but did enough in the extra session to put the game away. He did most of his damage early in the game though to keep the Pioneers from getting blown out of the gym.
  • Troy Howat (CRL): 5-8 FG (4-5 3PT); 14 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast. Howat was a spark off the bench for the Pios, as he went 4-4 from beyond the arc in the second half, including the clutch one with 38 seconds left to cut North Central's lead to three. There weren't a lot of other stat-filling guys on Carroll's roster, but Howat was one of the clutch guys.
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 9-15 FG (0-1 3PT), 3-10 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (3 off), 3 ast, 4 blk. Sorenson had a quiet 21, stemming largely from the fact that he only had five points at the break. He broke out in the second half and was excellent on the defensive end before fouling out. The big problem is that glaring 3-10 mark at the line. Sorenson missed his final six free throw attempts of the night, including those two in the closing seconds of regulation that could have put the game out of reach.
  • NCC: 11-22 FT (50.0%). The team itself gets a dishonorable mention, because this wasn't all Sorenson. Connor Raridon split a pair late that could have avoided the extra session and finished 4-7 for the night, and Mike Pollack proved he's human and split a pair. Sorenson's line is obviously the key problem, but it's far from the only one.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ WHE 85 (17-6, 10-4), CAR 77 (12-11, 7-7)
    • Wheaton has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth
    • Augustana has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth
    • North Central has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth
  • IWU 65 (18-5, 11-3), @ MIL 56 (11-13, 4-11)
    • Illinois Wesleyan has clinched a CCIW Tournament berth
  • @ ELM 77 (13-11, 6-9), NPU 63 (5-18, 1-13)
  • BYE: Augustana (18-5, 10-4)
  • WBK: @ CAR 92 (17-6, 10-4), NCC 56 (5-18, 3-11)
Final Thoughts
The reason I hold off on the Game Notes until the day after is twofold: I need to get to bed at a decent time, but also because I need to let the game sink in a little bit and not write this post in a fit of anger. Last night's game deserves peak rage: the Cardinals blew a 21 point lead, the largest blown lead in a game I've ever worked (beating out the legendary time UW-Eau Claire blew a 19 point lead). I'm trying to make that the focus of my rage, because the officiating last night was absolutely horrendous. The Pioneers took advantage of at least two North Central fouls on shot attempts that were either all ball or no contact whatsoever their opportunities at the free throw line to help get back in the game, combined with hot shooting while the Cardinals couldn't put the game away. Carroll earned this win, and and rage I take out on the bad officiating is just pathetic excuse making on my part trying to look for other reasons why the Cardinals couldn't pull this one out.

This also meant that two postgame announcements I was planning on making didn't get made, because the fact that you blew a 21 point lead to lose in overtime overshadows them. The Cardinals hit eight threes last night, bringing their season total to 211, which breaks the program record of 210 set just last year. And thanks to Wheaton's win over Carthage, the Cardinals clinched a CCIW Tournament berth despite the collapse. You can't celebrate a berth after a loss like that.

With the loss, the Cardinals sit in fourth place, a game behind Wheaton and two games out of first place. And with the Augie sweep of the Cardinals, I'm pretty sure hosting rights for the Cardinals in the CCIW Tournament are completely gone. They closed the 2017-18 season with a 9-3 record at home, which is nothing to be ashamed of. They won almost all of the games they were supposed to at Gregory Arena, last night being the only one they should have won but didn't. The other losses came to Illinois Wesleyan in heartbreaking fashion and last week to Augie. Those shouldn't overshadow some fantastic wins, including a buzzer beater over Benedictine, Alex Sorenson's clutch three and the ensuing chaos in the North Park win, and historic nights that saw Todd Raridon's 500th career win, Connor Raridon breaking both the single season and all time program records for assists, and Alex Sorenson singlehandedly destroying Robert Morris to break Bill Warden's longstanding single game scoring record.

Alas, the Cardinals end the season on the road with back to back tough games: they head to Wheaton on Saturday with the Thunder thinking revenge for earlier this season, and end the regular season on Tuesday at Illinois Wesleyan, where they may end up heading right back to a week from tomorrow for the CCIW Tournament.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 2 Edition

We're halfway into February now, which means it's time to take our second look at the NCAA's regional rankings.

Last week North Central's women were unranked and the men rounded out the Central region. This week's rankings will encompass an addition criterion that last week's did not: results against regionally ranked opponents. Those records will involve games against teams ranked in Week 1.

I tried to go in depth to explain how the regional rankings work last week. For an in-depth look at the process including interviews with some of the committee members, D3Hoops' Ryan Scott has an excellent piece. But for now, let's look at where North Central stands in this second set of rankings.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Game Notes: (MBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (2/7/18)

Final Score
Augustana 71, NCC 65

Game Summary
The Vikings (17-5, 9-4) pretty quickly silenced the crowd in this one, opening the game on an 8-0 run. The Cardinals (16-6, 9-4) brought Mike Pollack off the bench, and a couple threes got the team back into it, with an Alex Sorenson bucket a couple minutes later narrowing the gap to three. But the Vikings responded with a 10-0 run sparked by back to back Nolan Ebel threes. The Cardinals couldn't make a dent into the lead as Augie would lead by as many as 17 before settling in with a 32-16 halftime advantage. North Central made a bit of a push early in the first half, narrowing the gap to 11 just over five minutes in and forcing an Augustana timeout, but that break stopped the bleeding and prompted an 8-0 Viking run to push the lead back to 19. Augie seemed to have an answer for every Cardinal basket, but holding onto a 16 point lead with eight minutes to play, the Cardinals made their fateful final push, cutting the lead to single digits with four minutes to play, pushing it back under that mark for good with two and a half left, and coming within four at 69-65 with a minute to play. Augie split a pair of free throws, and on the ensuing possession, Mike Pollack missed a three which effectively ended the game.

Key Stats
  • Chrishawn Orange (AUG): 8-12 FG (2-2 3PT), 4-6 FT; 22 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Orange has killed the Cardinals at Gregory Arena in his three games here, and last night was no different. He scored Augie's first eight points before taking more of a backseat offensively, but did a ton of damage as the game went along, finishing perfect from the field in the second half and scoring the remaining 14 of his points.
  • Nolan Ebel (AUG): 5-12 FG (2-4 3PT), 6-8 FT; 18 pts, 6 reb (1 off), 3 ast. Ebel was clutch last night as well. He had 10 at halftime and didn't shoot particularly well in the second half, but he scored Augie's final six points to seal the victory.
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 8-14 FG (2-3 3PT), 1-3 FT; 19 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 5 ast, 1 blk. Alex struggled mightily in the early going of this one; he was 1-6 from the floor with just two points at the break as Augie did a fantastic job defensively on him. But he kept working in the post in the second half to help collapse the defense while getting his points, and hit a couple threes to help spark the late comeback attempt. All in all he ended with a solid night for his part.
Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch
Far and away, this is my favorite part of writing up these game notes... and my favorite non-game related aspect of the season on either the men's or the women's side. As a refresher for those of you who are new to either Confessions of a Sportscaster and/or CCIW men's basketball, Augie head coach Grey Giovanine is one of the best coaches in the country... and also one of the biggest head cases. As I understand it, he's mellowed to some degree from past years, but the most fun thing to watch for in these games is Grey's suit coat.
For years I've run an unofficial pool to see when people think it's coming off. One year I even won a Mountain Dew out of the deal from our former official scorer. This year there are no stakes other than pride and the sheer joy of seeing the coat come off. Last night, Grey took it off with 12:00 remaining in the first half. North Central SID Clark Teuscher won this year's unofficial pool with a guess of seven minutes in.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • WHE 107 (15-6, 8-4), @ IWU 95 (16-5, 9-3)
    • Millikin is eliminated from the CCIW Tournament
  • @ CRL 73 (9-12, 5-7), CAR 69 (12-9, 7-5)
  • MIL 87 (11-11, 4-9), @ ELM 70 (11-11, 4-9)
    • Elmhurst is eliminated from the CCIW Tournament
  • (Tues): @ NPU 87 (5-16, 1-11), East-West 71
  • (WBK): @ MIL 73 (6-15, 1-11), NCC 70 (5-17, 3-10)
Final Thoughts
I talked about how big this game was in yesterday's regional ranking post. Unfortunately, the Cardinals did not come out strong in this one as Augie played fantastic defense all night and hit some shots to pull away early. The Cardinals had some decent looks early on that just didn't fall, as they didn't shoot well in the first half, but shot very well in the second. Unfortunately, Augie heated up offensively as well to have an answer for every potential Cardinal run. They earned a tough road win, their fifth in a row in Naperville. As much as I'd like to complain about some perceived bad calls or the lack of Erwin Henry, Augie absolutely deserved to win this game.

This hurts the Cardinals big time. Illinois Wesleyan lost, which had set the stage for the Cardinals to potentially grab first place in the CCIW. Instead, they're effectively third because Augie is now locked into the tiebreaker over North Central with the head to head sweep. Wheaton's win also brings them within half a game of the Cardinals for third place. It's becoming a fairly crowded top of the conference now, and even though Illinois Wesleyan has lost two straight, they're still a threat at the top.

The other problem is that the Cardinals have a bye on Saturday, so they will idle at 9-4 in the conference until next week. The other contenders are all playing teams in the bottom four of the league this Saturday, so all have opportunities to gain ground on the Cardinals or put them in the rear view mirror. North Central returns to action with their final regular season home game on Valentine's Day when Carroll comes calling.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

There are a number of posts related to North Central basketball that I write up every year. You see the multitude of Game Notes that I put up following every game I work, plus the ones I attend as a fan on the rare occasions that I get to go to a game. You also see the season previews and recaps, plus previews of conference tournaments and, when we are fortunate enough, pods in the NCAA Tournament. But in order to reach that magical land of bracketology, you either need to win the aforementioned conference tournament (which for last year's men's team, "they shouldn't have let us in") or hope for one of a number of at large bids.

I've never really done a full primer on how these work exactly; I've always just gone straight into "Here's where North Central is ranked." But that doesn't really do justice to what's going on with these rankings. If you've read entries from prior years, you at least have an idea: the NCAA releases four sets of rankings: on the first three Wednesdays in February, and a final one after all the conference tournaments have been played. It's a benchmark of who they think the best teams in each region are, but they have a greater purpose: these are used to fill the NCAA Tournament field. The primary criteria for regional ranking, and thus, entry to the NCAA Tournament, include win-loss percentage against Division III opposition (duh), strength of schedule (in a nutshell, two-thirds opponents' winning percentage plus one-third opponents' opponents' wining percentage, with home and road factors included), head to head results, common opponent results, and in later rankings, results against regionally ranked opponents. Secondarily, any games played against non-Division III opponents will also be factored in.

The national committee is made up of one head coach or athletic administrator from each of Division III's eight regions. Those committee members also chair regional advisory committees, which are made up of one head coach or athletic administrator from each of the region's conferences. These regional committees are tasked with ranking the top teams in their region. The national committee has the right to make changes to these regional rankings, but for the most part seems to trust the regional committees with this task and accept what they come back with. But the final rankings mainly get turned into the national committee, who use them to fill the rest of the field (what the NCAA calls "Pool C"). The way it works is they take all of the automatic bid winners out of the rankings. The highest remaining ranked teams in each region then get a place at "the table." The merits of all eight teams are debated, and the one the committee deems most worthy based on the above criteria gets put into the field. The next team up from that region then gets a seat at "the table," and the process is repeated until all Pool C bids have been claimed.

Interestingly, Todd Raridon is the CCIW representative on the Central Region committee for the men. He will recuse himself from any discussion involving North Central, as will other members if their own institutions come up for debate. The same would happen at the national level as well, and there doesn't appear to be any impropriety at the D-III level with this system in place.

Anyway, this is all a long-winded explanation of how we arrive at the lists of teams I will link to below, and where North Central fits into the picture.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Game Notes: (MBK) North Park University @ North Central College (2/3/18)

Final Score
NCC 61, NPU 60

Game Summary
The Vikings (4-16, 1-11) crashed an emotional Senior Night party with an early barrage from beyond the arc, leading 9-2 less than five minutes in. Just two minutes later the deficit was double digits, and the Cardinals (16-5, 9-3) just couldn't get anything going offensively. North Park eventually opened up a 24-8 lead ten minutes in and had silenced Gregory Arena. Then the Cardinals woke up a bit, sandwiching a North Park layup with back to back threes to inject a little life in the building. The Vikings kept their advantage at a decent clip, still leading by double digits with 4:35 to go, but the Cardinals closed the half on a 9-0 run from that point, capped by a Blaise Meredith layup with four seconds to go. The Cardinals grabbed a 31-30 lead immediately to start the second half, but the Vikings answered immediately and regained control with a 5-0 mini run, though the Cardinals would not go away, eventually retying the game at 45. The teams traded some one possession leads from there before the Vikings made their run: a 9-0 stretch that spanned nearly five minutes had the Cardinals on the ropes, but North Central immediately answered with a Tommy Koth three. Alex Sorenson added a pair of free throws a minute later, and Connor Raridon tied the game again with a jumper with about a minute and a half left. The teams dug in for a close finish, with North Park's Colin Lake picking Sorenson's pocket with a minute left, then setting up Billy Kirby for the go-ahead layup with about 40 seconds left. On North Central's ensuing possession, they went to their two best guys, with the Vikings inexplicably leaving Alex Sorenson wide open from the top of the key, and he made them pay by burying a three with 27 seconds left. Out of timeouts and with the gym rocking so loud the officials didn't hear North Central's request for one, the Vikings went to Colin Lake on the final possession. He missed an eight foot teardrop, somehow got his own rebound, missed the putback, and saw a loose ball that was almost certainly out of bounds off North Park trickle out to Jack Gurvey who put up a prayer from 15 that hit off the back of the iron and triggered a roar as the Cardinals escaped with the win.

Key Stats
  • Alex Sorenson (NCC): 6-13 FG (2-2 3PT), 7-12 FT; 21 pts, 7 reb (3 off), 4 ast, 1 stl. One of the seniors being honored last night, Alex struggled a little bit early in this one. The Cardinals had a hard time finding openings to get entry passes to him in the post. When he did get the ball down low, he got fouled multiple times and struggled at the line in the first half (just 2-6). He made up for it in the second half though by getting some open looks, settling in at the line, and even hitting a three to help keep the Cardinals in it. On his heroic three, Alex had received the ball in the high post, handed the ball to Connor Raridon, who tried to back into that same high post while Alex drifted out, and Connor dished it out to a wide open Sorenson who made the Vikings pay. After the final buzzer, he leapt close to the Cardinal bench in what looked like celebration but described as relief for escaping with a win.
  • Tommy Koth (NCC): 4-7 FG (2-3 3PT), 1-2 FT; 11 pts, 2 reb (2 off). Earlier this week, Erwin Henry suffered a season-ending injury, a huge blow to this contending Cardinal team. It meant that roles were going to have to change and guys were going to have to step up. One of them is Koth, who pre-injury was North Central's ninth man and guy who would get a handful of minutes a night to spell the main rotation guys. He played 15 minutes last night and had arguably the best night of his career, hitting a couple huge threes, including one with the Cardinals down seven late. They don't need him to score 11 a night the rest of the way, but if he can chip in maybe six or seven while continuing to add excellent perimeter defense, they'll be in good shape.
  • Colin Lake (NPU): 5-15 FG (2-6 3PT), 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 4 ast, 1 stl. With the graduation of Juwan Henry and sabbatical of All American Jordan Robinson, the 5'4" Lake is the best player on what has become a pretty dreadful North Park team. Lake has done basically all he can this year to keep the Vikings afloat, and did so last night, leading the team in scoring and coming up with that key steal from Sorenson in the final minute. I feel kind of bad for him after missing two fairly open looks on that fateful final possession, but he gave his all last night. I have to tip my cap.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ CRL 77 (8-12, 4-7), AUG 69 (16-5, 8-4)
  • @ WHE 82 (14-6, 7-4), ELM 70 (11-10, 4-8)
  • @ CAR 85 (12-8, 7-4), MIL 70 (10-11, 3-9)
  • Bye: IWU (16-4, 9-2)
Final Thoughts
I was a little worried after the fact that I almost jinxed the Cardinals last night. Augie's road loss up in Waukesha was kind of shocking, and I'd made the comment that we'd be in second place by the end of the night. Early on in the game though it looked like we'd stay tied with Augie. So to say that the ending last night was a relief would be an understatement. Both Alex Sorenson and Todd Raridon expressed sentiments as such after the game.

Big picture wise, a Cardinal team that I'd written off for the top of the conference two weeks ago is now just half a game back of Illinois Wesleyan for first place. Augie is still clearly in the mix, but it's down to a two-team race for fourth between Carthage and Wheaton. It's going to make Wednesday's first set of regional rankings that much more interesting, and I'll have a writeup about it before Wednesday's big showdown.

Speaking of which, that showdown is against Augustana at home. Place your bets on Twitter at @northsider89 for the Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch, which I'll tweet out later. The Cardinals follow that with a bye on Saturday, one last home date with Carroll a week from Wednesday, then two tough road dates with Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan. The latter may end up being the game that decides the site of the conference tournament. However, the focus for now is on Wednesday.

Game Notes: (WBK) North Park University @ North Central College (2/3/18)

Final Score
NCC 71, NPU 61

Game Summary
The Cardinals (5-16, 3-9) jumped out to the immediate lead, but it was the Vikings (8-12, 3-8) who took over from there on out and held narrow leads before the Cardinals tied it, but the Vikings did take a 16-14 lead after one quarter. They started to pull away in the second, taking a 32-24 advantage with 4:16 to play. Then the Cardinals warmed up, closing the half on an 11-1 run to go up 35-33 at the break. They kept that momentum after intermission with a strong offensive showing, answering every North Park basket, though the Vikings would keep it close, trimming North Central's lead to one with about three minutes to go, but the Cardinals pushed the lead back to five by the end of the quarter at 51-46. North Central effectively ended the threat just four minutes into the fourth after Michaela Reedy capped a 12-3 run with a three to push the lead to 14. The Vikings cut it to six with just under two minutes to play, but this time the Cardinals closed it out at the line to pull out a Senior Night win.

Key Stats
  • Mayson Whipple (NCC): 4-15 FG (0-6 3PT), 3-4 FT; 11 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 4 stl. Mayson's outside shot wasn't falling last night, but she was hitting fairly well on her driving attempts to the basket. She also did a phenomenal job on the glass, got her teammates involved as she always has, and wreaked havoc defensively.
  • Michaela Reedy (NCC): 3-15 FG (2-11 3PT); 8 pts, 9 reb (5 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. Mike has had a lot of shooting nights like this where she's getting open looks and they just aren't falling. This was one of them, but she always brings a lot more to the table. She might be the best rebounder on the team, as she goes up strong to pull down rebounds, even amongst taller players. Her nine boards were a team high.
  • Lyndsay Brennan (NCC): 5-8 FG (0-1 3PT), 0-2 FT; 10 pts, 8 reb (5 off), 6 ast, 7 stl. I was going to mainly focus on the two seniors, but Lyndsay put up a quadruple-nickel. That deserves recognition. That steal total unfortunately didn't crack the top five in program history (the record is nine, and of that game, plus the four games tied for second with eight, only one came in The System Era. Basketball is weird.)
  • Lauryn Alba Garner (NPU): 7-9 FG (3-3 3PT), 1-1 FT; 18 pts, 1 ast, 1 stl. The freshman impressed me last night. She was the key to North Park's offense, and she's going to be a force for this team for years to come. It hasn't been a great year for the Vikings, but they've got a nice piece to build around.
North Central "System" Watch
  • NPU Turnovers: 27. After a few games of this number being lower than I'd like, the Cardinals finally wreaked a ton of havoc. North Park threw a fair number of passes away, but to their credit the Cardinals picked up 16 steals on the night, paced by Brennan's seven and Whipple's four.
  • NCC 3PT: 6-32 (18.8%). Go figure; the Cardinals lose a game where they shot over 30 percent from beyond the arc, then follow that up with a win where they shot under 20 percent. It took until midway through the second quarter for the Cardinals to get their first three, as they got a couple during that 11-1 run to finish the first half at 2-14. They weren't much better in the second half at 4-18, but hit some key ones, including a few major momentum threes to help end this one.
  • NCC FT: 13-22 (59.1%). I'd like to see this figure be a little better, but given where they've been this season, it works. The Cardinals were over 60 percent in the second half (10-16), so they made them when it counted, which is good.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 3. I'm reviving this feature for this game. It was a staple in prior years because Anita Sterling was the master at this art, but the team did a phenomenal job last night. They drew one early, but I missed who took it. Maya Walls and Natali Dimitrova drew the last two and did an excellent job of doing it.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ CRL 75 (7-13, 4-7), AUG 69 (12-9, 5-7)
  • @ WHE 70 (17-4, 10-2), ELM 58 (12-9, 8-4)
    • Wheaton clinches a berth in the CCIW Tournament
  • @ CAR 78 (15-6, 8-4), MIL 60 (5-15, 0-11)
    • With Carthage's win, North Central is eliminated from CCIW Tournament contention
  • Bye: IWU (18-2, 11-0)
Final Thoughts
I didn't realize the Cardinals had gotten bounced until I went to update the standings on the sidebar of Confessions of a Sportscaster this afternoon. I'm not surprised by it given how the season has gone, and it makes it two years in a row Senior Night has been the night of mathematical elimination. This time though, I'm just glad it resulted in a win. After Wednesday night's debacle, this team needed a pick me up. They got one last night. I'm sure the emotions of Senior Night helped, but so did stifling defense and opportunistic passing lane jumps. The loss is North Park's eighth in a row, and has to be a tough one for them. They're not mathematically out yet, but for all intents and purposes they're just playing out the string now.

Looking at the big picture, the top of the conference is set. Illinois Wesleyan has its toughest test in a long time with a trip to Wheaton on Wednesday and might be their toughest test on the road to a 16-0 CCIW campaign, something that hasn't happened in a very long time. Meanwhile, Carthage and Elmhurst appear to all but have those last two spots locked up. That leaves the bottom five, including a free falling Augie to fight for position.

The Cardinals have four games left, the next three of which are on the road. They have a winnable game at Millikin on Wednesday, then after a Saturday bye head up to Kenosha to play Carthage, who they haven't beat there since 2006. They then close at Wheaton and at home against Augustana on the final day of the regular season. Those last three are tough, but if the Cardinals can at least get to 5-11 in the conference, I think I can live with it.

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Super Bowl LII Predictions and Prop Bets

And so as Super Bowl Sunday approaches, I need to do one final look at an NFL football game for this season. And as has become tradition, Adam will be joining me once again.

He beat me fair and square in the regular season in our Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but we always do a special for the Super Bowl with some of the prop bets that you can make. We won't be wagering money; instead we're doing this with a point system: bet 100 points to win however many based on lines from Bovada.

Those will follow below. But first, here's how we're both predicting the Super Bowl to go.


Thursday, February 1, 2018

Game Notes: (WBK) Carroll University @ North Central College (1/31/18)

Final Score
Carroll 60, NCC 55

Game Summary
This one started out well enough for the Cardinals (4-16, 2-9), who fought off a decent start from the Pioneers (6-13, 3-7) with some timely threes and solid free throw shooting and took a 17-12 lead after one quarter. North Central would lead by as many as seven early in the second, but the Pioneers wouldn't go away, cutting the lead to one a couple times before settling into the half down 30-26. The Cardinals came out of the gate strong in the second half, scoring five straight points to push the lead to nine, but Carroll went on a 13-4 run to tie the game at 39. A three gave the Cardinals the lead right back, but they only took a 42-41 advantage into the final frame. The teams traded advantages a bit in the early going, but the Cardinals seemed in control with a six point lead with just under five minutes to play and a five point lead with just under three to go on a Haydn Braun layup. But that was all the Cardinal offense could muster as Rachel Van Sluys scored five straight to tie the game with about a minute and a half to play, and Emily Majerus hit the go ahead three with 40 seconds to play to give the Pioneers the season sweep.

Key Stats
  • Brittney Wald (CRL): 9-19 FG (2-3 3PT), 3-5 FT; 23 pts, 12 reb (4 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. Wald was the Carroll offense for much of this one. She scored 12 of Carroll's first 19 points before starting to be contained a little bit, but she still got too many good looks. Her 12 rebounds were also a game high... and she's a 5'6" guard.
  • Rachel Van Sluys (CRL): 5-13 FG, 5-8 FT; 15 pts, 10 reb (5 off), 2 stl. Van Sluys missed a significant chunk of the season due to injury and this was her first game back, and she made sure to make the most of it. She came off the bench to ease her way back in and didn't really do anything in the first half (just two rebounds), but came alive in the second half. She scored seven of Carroll's last ten points that sealed the game for them, including the tying basket and the clinching free throws.
  • Maya Walls (NCC): 4-7 FG (2-2 3PT); 10 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 2 blk, 3 stl. I had a bit of a hard time deciding which Cardinal to highlight, but Maya had a decent game. She could have done a better job rebounding, but was a pretty good part of the offense, getting to the basket a couple times and hitting a couple threes, while making a couple great plays on defense.
North Central "System" Watch
  • Carroll Turnovers: 16. This number isn't good enough, especially considering the Cardinals had 19 on their end. North Central did a pretty good job jumping passing lanes though as they logged 12 steals, paced by four from Michaela Reedy, plus Wall's three. They also forced a shot clock violation.
  • NCC 3PT: 9-28 (32.1%). It's rare for the Cardinals to shoot this well percentage wise from deep and lose the game. They got some well timed threes throughout the game, but couldn't hit a tying effort late after Majerus' go-ahead bomb. The percentages were also pretty consistent across the halves (4-12 in the first half, 5-16 in the second).
  • NCC FT: 6-9 (66.7%). I can't really complain about this part. The Cardinals hit their first three and started 4-5 at the line before regressing to the mean and going 2-4 the rest of the way. They got to the line fairly early and I would have liked to see that trend continue, but it just wasn't meant to be. All in all though, this raises their season average a little bit.
CCIW Scoreboard Watch
  • @ IWU 99 (18-2, 11-0), AUG 70 (12-8, 5-6)
    • Illinois Wesleyan clinches a CCIW Tournament berth
  • @ WHE 54 (16-4, 9-2), CAR 35 (14-6, 7-4)
  • @ ELM 55 (12-8, 8-3), MIL 53 (5-14, 0-10)
    • Millikin is eliminated from CCIW Tournament contention
  • Bye: NPU (8-11, 3-7)
  • MBK: NCC 79 (15-5, 8-3), @ CAR 75 (11-8, 6-4)
Final Thoughts
Photo from WONC Sports
One important note to take from this game is that the Cardinals weren't at full strength. Bekah Foley was on crutches last night and I don't know whether she'll be good to go or not. There was also late doubt about Mayson Whipple, who participated in warmups, but did not play last night with a hamstring. I also don't know whether this is a long term injury or not.

Despite being down their best player and one of their better freshmen, you have to beat the bad teams at home. Carroll isn't that good, but my sense of deja vu proved to come true as the Cardinals went ice cold in the final minutes and once again, Carroll took advantage. They celebrated quite a bit after the win, which I don't blame them for. It's their first win in Naperville this century and for quite the young team, it's a confidence booster going forward. But for the Cardinals, it's an incredibly frustrating loss. I know it was for me.

Looking at the big picture, Illinois Wesleyan locked up the formality of a CCIW Tournament berth, which we pretty much all knew was going to happen. Their biggest threat to a 16-0 conference record is next Wednesday when they head to Wheaton, but it's all but a foregone conclusion that the tournament will be in Bloomington. The Cardinals aren't mathematically eliminated, but a loss Saturday to North Park will be the death blow to a dismal season. It will be Senior Night however, as I bid farewell to the final players remaining from the legendary 2014-15 season.