Thursday, August 31, 2017

2017 AFC West Preview

We've made it to the end of August, which means football season is almost here! As such, I'm well underway in my set of previews for the upcoming season.

I've spent the last few days going division by division, rounding my way around the country before ultimately ending in the division of the defending champion. After today, we'll be halfway home.

With a week until the start of the NFL season, there is still time to get in on picking NFL games against the spread. Adam Quinn will join me once again in a weekly feature where we'll pick the games, and you can join our fun here.

Let's get on to the preview.


Wednesday, August 30, 2017

2017 NFC West Preview

It's Wednesday, and we're shifting things over to the West Coast as we continue our preview series for the upcoming NFL season.

Today is day three of eight straight weekdays of going division by division, alternating conferences, until I've hit all 32 NFL teams. So far, we've done both the NFC and AFC North, and no wild card spots are accounted for quite yet. We'll see if that changes today.

Before I get into the previews, I'm making yet another shameless plug for the upcoming season and my continuing Pigskin Pick 'Em series that Adam Quinn will join me for once again. You can come pick against us here.

And now, onto the NFC West.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

2017 AFC North Preview

The NFL preview circuit rolls on as we swap conferences, but stay in the north!

I'm hitting up every division over the next several weekdays, with Saturday and Sunday off, even though Monday is Labor Day and a holiday because that's just how the timing works out.

This is also shameless plug time, as Adam Quinn and I will be picking games against the spread once again this season. If you would like to join us and try to beat us, you can do so here.

On to the previews.


2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

Officially, the college football season is underway thanks to Week 1 Creep. Five games were played on Saturday, and for many of these teams, they'll play their second game this coming weekend as part of Week 1 because I don't know.

Pretty much everyone else is beginning sometime between Thursday and Monday, and this post will measure the schedule strength as far as non-conference games are concerned.

Each week I will take a look at the schedule, pick out the non-conference games, and assign the involved teams a score ranging between -1 and 3. Most weeks, because a majority of team schedules are built around conference games, a team's score will be zero. For the other three or four weeks of non-conference games, this is where these measurements come into play. You can view a full primer on how the scoring system works back in my season preview post.

These scores are then averaged out across full conferences, and those averages get posted below. Each team and conference will get an aggregate score at the end of the season, but week by week I'll update the numbers for each team. At the start, some of the Power Five conferences will be towards the top, but they'll shrink towards the bottom over the next couple weeks. This is partially based on how the formula works (the Group of Five conference teams tend to travel to face Power Five opponents in non-conference, which boosts their scores more than the Power Five teams do for hosting these games).

Without further ado, here are the week's rankings, with average scores in parentheses. Writeups for each conference explaining how they arrived at those scores are included.

Monday, August 28, 2017

2017 NFC North Preview

We're only a week and a half away from the start of another NFL season, and I'm starting to get excited again. As such, I need to get the previewing into high gear.

I'm continuing my annual tradition, working my way around the country, only this year I'm going counterclockwise, and alternating conferences until we end with the division of the defending champion.

I also take this opportunity to invite you, dear readers, to join me in picking NFL games against the spread. We're in Year Six of this contest now, with Adam Quinn joining me for a fourth season of a weekly post with our picks. You can join our ESPN group here.

I'm beginning at home again this season with the NFC North.


Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Football Announcing, The Worldwide Leader, and Political Correctness

Photo by Robert Lee (robertleepxp.wordpress.com)
I try to avoid political topics on here. Part of it is I don't like politics, I don't like politicians, and I hate the extremists on both sides of the aisle who just scream back and forth at each other, seemingly now louder than ever. But I heard about this story last night, and now that it's been confirmed, I feel like I had to say something.

By now you've heard ad nauseum about the evils perpetrated around the rallies and counter protests in Charlottsville, Virginia as part of the ongoing craziness that is the United States in 2017. It's prompted many places in southern states to take down statues of figures from the Confederacy or for opponents of these statues to take them down themselves. At the end of the day, this is probably for the best, but this isn't the point of this post... as I'm sure you guessed by the title.

A week from Saturday, the University of Virginia's football team will be playing FCS school William and Mary at home in Charlottesville. Ordinarily, all that would come of this is Virginia losing an NCSS point for the purposes of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, and that would be the end of it because they don't have any other lower level opponents on their schedule at the time of this writing, and thus they won't get a one year ban from the postseason. Virginia will probably win, and William and Mary will take home a decent payday, and everyone goes home none the worse for wear. Instead, in this heated political climate, all hell broke loose last night.


Monday, August 21, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: All Star and All Tournament Teams

After 1,422 games we were able to narrow down 30 teams, one representative from each franchise, to one. The 2016 Chicago Cubs are the Champion of Champions. But I wanted to wrap up the Tournament of Champions with one final post.

In prior Tournaments of Champions, I have named an All Tournament Team, or at least an MVP. I did the MVP's in the post for the title round, but I wanted to build a 25 man roster around said MVP.

I also decided that, because I have a problem, that wasn't enough. I also did a Consolation Bracket of all the teams that didn't make it to the postseason, and I wanted to make sure that they were all represented as well.

So based on the stats from consolation play, I built National League and American League All Star teams. They had to max out at 25 players, and every team had to be represented by at least one player. This made it a little tricky, but it was fairly easily doable.

More importantly though, I also had to run through the postseason, compiling all of the stats from there, and once again building a 25 man roster with at least one representative from each playoff team. This was also a hard decision between trying to figure out the starting lineup and making sure that I wasn't leaving anyone deserving out.

Let's take a look at the teams.


Sunday, August 20, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: Championship

Four and a half months. 1,415 games. That's how long it has taken for the MLB Tournament of Champions to reach its apex. 30 teams entered this tournament with dreams of being the greatest team of all time, one representative from each franchise. We're now down to two, who will do battle for the title of Champion of Champions.

As with every series to date, I will end up going through game by game, because after all this time, these two teams deserve the fullest attention I can give them.

On one side of the battle, we have what many people probably would have considered one of the pre-tournament favorites: the 2016 Chicago Cubs. The team that every Cubs fan was waiting for came into this tournament and largely dominated, winning a tournament-high 59 games to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. One could argue they've needed it, though they're 3-4 at Wrigley this postseason. It hasn't mattered, as they've done enough on the road, going 4-1 over two series to reach this point. Problem is, in both series they've needed a winner-take-all game to advance, and they've squeaked by in both, needing a walkoff home run by Ben Zobrist to make the NLCS, and requiring some masterful Game 7 pitching by Jake Arrieta to survive and advance to this round. Arrieta has probably been the best pitcher in the tournament, and the Cubs have gotten timely clutch hits from guys like Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and even the ageless David Ross. Now, they are just four more wins from another level of immortality.

Standing in their way was a team that was a strike away from winning the World Series in its time: the 2011 Texas Rangers. After dropping heartbreaking Games 6 and 7 six years ago, the Rangers used that defeat to fuel them in the tightest division race in the tournament en route to 53 wins and an AL West title. It ranked them third among American League division winners, meaning they had to start on the road, but it didn't matter. They took the first two games in Boston in the ALDS and knocked off the 2004 Red Sox in four. They also had to start on the road in the ALCS against Cleveland, but took two out of three both there and at home, including the clinching Game 6 to bring them to this title round.

These two titans will play a best of seven series in a 2-3-2 format to determine the Champion of Champions. The Cubs get home field advantage by virtue of the better tournament record, even though they played no interleague games so there are no common opponents to judge these teams by. This means that in Games 1, 2, and if necessary 6 and 7 pitchers will bat for themselves in the National League park. Games 3, 4, and if necessary 5 in Texas will have the benefit of the designated hitter, so both teams will have some lineup tinkering to do here and there. The Rangers had to do it for their three games in Baltimore, but for the most part have had the benefit of the DH all tournament long. For the Cubs, this is new, and unfortunately unlike the 2016 World Series, Kyle Schwarber is not walking through the virtual clubhouse doors.

I have kept stats for the entire postseason portion of the tournament, and you can view those stats both by round and in aggregate here. I will use these stats when all is said and done to pick both a Series MVP and an overarching Tournament MVP. At a later time I will also make a post with some All-Tournament Teams from the entire tournament. For this series, as with all 1,415 games before, all simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's crown a champion.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Another Year Fighting College Football Corruption

Another fall is upon us, and that means another three or four months up on my soapbox decrying the rampant elitism and corruption in college football. But that doesn't mean that the football itself isn't enjoyable.

That's why I'm here, every year, taking a look at the goings on. Growing up, I didn't care about college football, largely because my dad didn't. I've gotten into it a little bit more just because it's so woven into the fabric of American culture, but I have no rooting interest, other than sheer anarchy, and occasional support for a local team if they've doing well.

My main issue with college football is not the issue of whether or not players should be paid (short answer: they probably should, but maybe not in the way most other people would argue they should be), but with the terrible playoff system they have set up. It's a definite improvement over the garbage that was the BCS, but they can do better. You can read more about my views on this here and in prior season preview posts.


Wednesday, August 9, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: NLCS

The MLB Tournament of Champions rolls on as we continue with the postseason and the League Championship Series!

We're over in the National League today as two of the best teams from the regular season collide. For a series like this, I can't just do this half-heartedly. We're doing a full-on look, game by game, at this series that promises to be a classic.

In one dugout we have the 2016 Chicago Cubs. The Cubs won 59 games in the regular season and were pretty much wire to wire the best team in the tournament. They earned the top overall seed in the postseason with those 59 wins, but they faced a tough NLDS opponent in the 1975 Reds. The Cubs needed a pair of walkoff home runs, including one in the winner-take-all Game 5, to advance to this stage. Anthony Rizzo hit a pair of homers against Cincy, including a Game 1 walkoff, while Jake Arrieta pitched masterfully in Games 1 and 5.

They take on the 1995 Atlanta Braves. The Braves overcame having to play on 34 straight days and logged the longest winning streak of any team in the tournament en route to a 55 win campaign. That gave them home field advantage in the last round, though they lost Game 1 against the 2007 Rockies before taking three straight to advance. Ryan Klesko had a monster NLDS with three home runs, and the starting rotation threw 22 1/3 innings and allowed just seven runs against the Rockies.

The Cubs and Braves will play a best of seven series, and by virtue of having the best record in the tournament, the Cubs get home field advantage in a 2-3-2 format. They may need the help, considering the Braves won four of six in the regular season. Stats for this and every series of the tournament can be found here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some baseball!

Monday, August 7, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: ALCS

Just four teams remain, and we're one round away from the Championship of Champions here in the MLB Tournament of Champions!

At the end of July we wrapped up the Division Series round, and we're now onto the LCS round. Once again I'm giving each series its own post so I can do brief writeups for each game in the series and all the players can get their due.

In one corner in this matchup we have the 1995 Cleveland Indians, who came in looking for a greater prize than falling just short in their World Series can bring, and they've done well on that quest: 58 regular season wins, the most in the American League, and an ALDS sweep of the wild card 2001 Seattle Mariners. Their middle of the lineup (read: Albert Belle) produced, and Omar Vizquel proved to be a great table setter, and their pitching staff was lights out against Seattle, especially the bullpen which didn't allow a run.

They take on a team that pulled an upset in the 2011 Texas Rangers. Texas finished a game back of Boston, but the lack of home field advantage didn't matter as they took the first two games at Fenway to close out the Red Sox in four. The Rangers gave up a higher number of runs than you'd like to see out of a postseason team, but they more than made up for that with an elite offense with a middle of the lineup that did a ton of damage over four games, especially Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz.

These two teams will play a best of seven series with the Indians, by virtue of that top record in the AL, getting home field advantage which will be played in a 2-3-2 format. Considering the Indians and Rangers split their six games played during the regular season, they may need that home field advantage to break the deadlock. Statistics for this series, as well as postseason totals, can be found here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play ball!

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket

I just can't help myself.

The postseason of the MLB Tournament of Champions is in full swing. At this point, we're in the League Championship Series portion of the tournament, and I'll have those results in a week or so. In addition to that, I decided that the 92 (or in the case of the 1998 New York Yankees, 93) games these teams played to narrow the field from 30 to 10 wasn't enough. I wanted to run a consolation tournament similar to what I did for the NBA Tournament of Champions last year.

This is another single game per round, double elimination tournament. It's similar to what the NCAA uses for the College World Series, except with more teams. The fair warning with this (that I discovered after the fact) is that when we hit the championship game, it's a winner-take-all, so even if the team out of the winners bracket loses, that's it. In this sense, it's not a true "double-elimination" tournament, but it's close enough.

I split the teams to keep them in their respective leagues until we hit the end, when I'll hold a three game series between the winners from each league. Home field advantage all throughout this portion of the tournament goes to the teams with the better records from the regular season, and the few ties there were were broken based on records against the team seeded first in the tournament, moving on down until the tie was broken.

Here are the seedings and brackets for each league, beginning with the American League:
  1. 1998 New York Yankees
  2. 2008 Tampa Bay Rays
  3. 1989 Oakland Athletics
  4. 1984 Detroit Tigers
  5. 1982 Milwaukee Brewers
  6. 2015 Kansas City Royals
  7. 1991 Minnesota Twins
  8. 2002 Anaheim Angels
  9. 1993 Toronto Blue Jays
  10. 2005 Chicago White Sox
And the National League:
  1. 1965 Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. 1986 New York Mets
  3. 1971 Pittsburgh Pirates
  4. 2005 Houston Astros
  5. 2011 St. Louis Cardinals
  6. 2003 Florida Marlins
  7. 2014 Washington Nationals
  8. 2010 San Francisco Giants
  9. 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
  10. 2008 Philadelphia Phillies
I'm also going to keep stats for this tournament, seeing as there are significantly fewer games to keep track of. You can view those here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play ball!