2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

I almost did this wrong. I set a reminder on my phone to go grab weather forecasts for a couple places, but I had them set to go for Saturday the 14th as opposed to Saturday the 21st. Fortunately I caught my mistake and set it up for this weekend.

Part of me loves to process of building the playoffs more than actually running through them, but I think this does a good job of answering questions of who is more likely to be the best team in the nation. Obviously it's not the same as actually playing the games, but it's the best I can do.

If you want to see the playoff bracket as it's set up, you can view it here, or click on the link up at the top of the page. We're playing through the first round today. The simulation rules are pretty simple: higher seeds get home field advantage, and I try to get the weather conditions as accurate as I can for the game (conditions are obtained by weather.com around the predetermined kickoff time). Start times are for the Central time zone, and I try not to screw teams over with start times either too early or too late. I simulate first round games as a best-of-three to get a more accurate result, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Let's play some football.

12:00pm Games

(16)Louisiana-Lafayette @ (1)Florida State
Game 1: (1)FSU 53, (16)ULL 10
Game 2: (1) FSU 48, (16)ULL 10
Both teams ran the ball extremely well. Lafayette actually had leads of 7-0 and 10-7 in the opening stanza, but the Seminoles were too balanced. Heisman winner Jameis Winston threw for 276 yards and two scores, while Devonta Freeman ran for two more. Alonzo Harris ran for 129 yards and the lone Cajun touchdown, while quarterback Terrance Broadway completed just eight of 24 passes for 97 yards.

(15)Rice @ (2)Auburn

Game 1: (2)AUB 33, (15)RICE 14
Game 2: (2)AUB 37, (15)RICE 24
Auburn ran 68 plays from scrimmage. Of those, 63 were running plays. Quarterback Nick Marshall completed three of five passes for 67 yards (all for first downs). Tre Mason ran 29 times for 187 yards and scored twice. Rice opened the scoring a couple minutes in, with the first of Taylor McHargue's three touchdown passes. He threw for 218 yards while Charles Ross ran for 139 on 20 carries.

3:00pm Games

(11)Central Florida @ (6)Ohio State

Game 1: (11)UCF 17, (6)OSU 10
Game 2: (11)UCF 23, (6)OSU 9
A little rain didn't hamper the Knights as they notched the first upset of the tournament. The Buckeyes did run all over Central Florida, with Carlos Hyde picking up 203 yards on 21 carries, but Braxton Miller struggled, managing just 73 yards on nine of 16 passing. Blake Bortles had a good day throwing the ball, completing 22 of 35 passes for 301 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Ultimately, UCF's defense stepped up when they needed to, holding Ohio State to just three of 14 on third down.

(9)Arizona State @ (8)Alabama

Game 1: (8)ALA 30, (9)ASU 9
Game 2: (8)ALA 19, (9)ASU 14
Arizona State led for most of the second half, but TJ Yeldon came up with his second touchdown of the game with 1:46 left. Then the simulator/head coach Todd Graham inexplicably botched their both of the Sun Devils' ensuing drives, and no attempt was even made at a Hail Mary. I don't get it. Anyway, Yeldon ran for 125 yards on the day to help bail out AJ McCarron, who threw for 304 yards on 24 of 37 attempts, but was picked twice (and also ran 6 times for a total loss of 28 yards). Taylor Kelly wasn't much better for the Devils, going 15 of 27 for 167 yards and two scores, but three interceptions.

6:00pm Games

(12)Oklahoma @ (5)Michigan State

Game 1: (12)OU 25, (5)MSU 23
Game 2: (12)OU 28, (5)MSU 16
In a light wintry mix, the Sooners were able to control the clock and move the ball a little bit. Blake Bell threw for only 194 yards on 13 of 28 passing, but had a pair of touchdowns while Brennan Clay ran for 81 yards on 18 carries and the other two scores. The Spartans had over 400 yards of offense, including Connor Cook throwing for 258 yards and ran for the lone touchdown, but he was picked off twice and the Spartans were just one for three on 4th down.

(10)South Carolina @ (7)Missouri

Game 1: (10)SC 20, (7)MIZZ 17
Game 2: (7)MIZZ 24, (10)SC 9
Game 3: (7)MIZZ 31, (10)SC 16
First matchup that needed a deciding third game, and that one was all Missouri as they got revenge for the earlier regular season loss. James Franklin threw for 199 yards and three touchdowns to lead the way for the Tigers, and ran for 252 yards as a team. SC's Connor Shaw went 18 of 34 for 291 yards and a couple scores. The Gamecocks were within five early in the 4th quarter but couldn't get any closer.

9:00pm Games

(14)Bowling Green @ (3)Stanford

Game 1: (3)STAN 51, (14)BGU 10
Game 2: (3)STAN 30, (14)BGU 17
Bowling Green was in it the entire first half and only trailed by three heading to the locker room, but the Cardinal came out swinging in the second half. Tyler Gaffney ran 35 times for 213 yards and scored twice, while backup Anthony Wilkerson added 101 yards on 12 carries plus another score. The Falcons picked off Kevin Hogan twice but couldn't manage much offense on the ground despite two touchdowns to go with 64 yards on 23 carries.

(13)Fresno State @ (4)Baylor

Game 1: (13)FSU 41, (4)BAY 22
Game 2: (4)BAY 35, (13)FSU 17
Game 3: (4)BAY 52, (13)FSU 20
I thought for sure we'd have a huge upset on our hands, then WhatIfSports decided it had had enough.Lache Seastrunk ran 18 times for 188 yards and an astounding five touchdowns (including runs of 71 and 58 yards). Bryce Petty did a good job keeping balance, going 12 of 15 through the air for 267 yards and a touchdown. Derek Carr did everything he could for the Bulldogs, throwing for 338 yards and two touchdowns on 31 of 44 attempts, but he was picked off once and sacked five times by the Bears defense.

Good first round so far. They rocked a lot of chalk, as the top four seeds are all advancing in fairly convincing fashion. I am thrilled by the presence of the couple upsets in the form of Oklahoma over Michigan State and on a grander scale, Central Florida knocking off Ohio State. The second round does lack a little bit of drama with a pair of rematches. Baylor gets to host Oklahoma again after beating them 41-12 at home on November 7, while Auburn gets a rematch of the SEC title game against Missouri, only this time it's at the place where miracles seem to keep happening. Stanford gets a shot at one of the upstart teams in Central Florida. I think the game of the week next week though is the 1-8 matchup as I got a matchup I'm sure a lot of people were hoping for in Florida State-Alabama. They get the primetime Saturday evening game at 7:00 local time, as they should.

We're well on our way to trying to determine who is more likely the best team in college football. At least, according to a simulator. I'll be back next week with quarterfinal action.