It's the second weekend of my borrowed edition of a playoff in college football. Since reading Wetzel, Peter and Passan's work a few years back, I have been a proponent of their "Death to the BCS" playoff system, and will give them credit for the innovation. I've just taken that system and tried to simulate through a postseason done in that fashion.
This past weekend showed the value of such a system. For the most part, chalk reigned. However, we had a pair of incredibly notable games in the massive upset by Bowling Green over third-seeded Michigan State and the instant classic that was Stanford-TCU. It sets up four games scheduled for yesterday that will determine the last four teams that will play in 2016.
The schedule has been adjusted such that no playoff game will compete against another, though we're going to have one super late game in the Midwest. The rules are the same as last round: the higher seeded team in each game will have hosting privileges, and I will take actual weather at those locales into account when setting this up. In an attempt to make this game as accurate as possible, I use injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to keep injured players out, something that did come into play with a few teams last week. These games will be simulated as a best-of-three to minimize luck, with the "clinching" game being the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some football.
12pm Game
Game 1: (4)OU 31, (5)OSU 10
Game 2: (5)OSU 17, (4)OU 10
Game 3: (5)OSU 20, (4)OU 17
In a rainy, cold Norman, Oklahoma, offense was a little tricky to come by early. Each team did score twice in the opening quarter with the difference being an Ezekiel Elliott 62 yard touchdown run following a Baker Mayfield interception that had the Buckeyes up 10-6. The Sooners would get a chance towards the end of the first half, but inexplicably settled for a 34 yard field goal with 13 seconds left in the half to make it 10-9 despite having 2nd and 12 from the Buckeye 17. They did get the ball to start the second half, but stalled near midfield, and Ohio State responded with a nine play, 69 yard drive capped off by an 18 yard Elliott touchdown run. The Sooner offense finally got a break in the fourth quarter, as Mayfield hit DeDe Westbrook on a screen pass, and he took it in from 48 yards out for a touchdown, and Durron Neal caught the two point conversion to tie the game. The Buckeyes went 56 yards in just over five minutes for a 32 yard field goal to retake the lead. Oklahoma marched down the field, but Austin Seibert's 56 yard field goal hit off the upright, and the Buckeyes ran out the clock.
Elliott was the star, running for 20 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. J.T. Barrett completed 10 of 17 passes for 106 yards, and five Buckeyes recorded sacks. Baker Mayfield completed 20 of 31 passes for 276 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in the Sooner loss, while Sterling Shepard had eight catches for 114 yards.
3pm Game
Game 1: (2)ALA 23, (7)IOWA 20
Game 2: (2)ALA 58, (7)IOWA 3
I expected this to be a close game, and the first sim reflected that, but the second one had other ideas. The Hawkeyes had a field goal bounce off the upright on their opening drive, and Alabama responded with a 15 play drive culminating in a Jake Coker to Richard Mullaney nine yard strike to open the scoring. The Tide just poured it on, adding 24 points in the second quarter while the Hawkeyes missed another field goal and lost a fumble, both of which led to Bama touchdowns. Iowa did finally break through with a field goal midway through the third, but not before another Tide touchdown. Coker sat out the fourth quarter with the game in hand, but saw the backup quarterback lead a few more scoring drives, including Derrick Henry finally breaking through on the ground with a 40 yard touchdown run with under two minutes to play.
Coker finished 28 of 42 passing for 402 yards and six touchdowns, all to different receivers. Derrick Henry rushed 31 times for 210 yards and a score while adding two catches for 66 yards and another touchdown through the air. C.J. Beathard was awful for Iowa, completing just 11 of 32 passes for 160 yards. Jordan Canzeri did return for this game and rushed for 105 yards on 19 carries. Kicker Marshall Koehn missed three of his four field goals, all from at least 48 yards away.
6pm Game
Game 1: (1)CLEM 30, (8)ND 17
Game 2: (1)CLEM 20, (8)ND 19
The rematch once again favored the home team, but this one came down to the wire. DeShone Kizer threw a deep interception on his first pass attempt of the game, and the Tigers were able to turn it into a field goal thanks to a 53 yard Jordan Leggett catch-and-run. The Irish answered with a 16 play, seven minute drive capped off by an eight yard touchdown catch by Torii Hunter, Jr. Justin Yoon added a couple field goals in the second quarter to take a 13-3 lead with 7:50 left in the half. Clemson answered with a field goal, then recovered a Notre Dame fumble with about 90 seconds left, and Deshaun Watson hit Stanton Seckinger on fourth and goal from the 2 yard line to tie the game. The Irish got going midway through the third quarter again, and Yoon added another field goal to retake the lead. C.J. Prosise, playing despite an ankle injury, broke a 58 yard run on the last play of the third quarter to set up a 1st and goal for Notre Dame, but the Irish again had to settle for three points. The Irish tried to run out the clock and did get into Clemson territory again. Strangely, Notre Dame went for it on 4th and 8 from the Clemson 35, but Dexter Williams fumbled and the Tigers recovered again with 1:49 left. Clemson covered 67 yards in just 58 seconds, with Charone Peake hauling in a 20 yard touchdown pass from Watson and Greg Huegel nailed the extra point to give Clemson its first lead since the opening quarter. The Irish inexplicably ran the ball twice on the final drive despite holding all three time outs, and despite getting two shots at the end zone, Kizer was unable to complete a Hail Mary, and the Tigers escaped with the win.
Watson completed 16 of 24 passes for 199 yards and two scores to lead the Tigers, Wayne Gallman had 102 yards rushing on 24 carries, and D.J. Reader (who for some reason was back on the team in the sim despite being out for personal reasons and there's nothing I can do about his presence) had two sacks. C.J. Prosise, still nursing that ankle injury, had just seven carries but ran for 94 yards, while DeShone Kizer threw for 203 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 15 of 27 attempts.
9pm Game
Game 1: (11)TCU 38, (14)BGSU 21
Game 2: (14)BGSU 20, (11)TCU 9
Game 3: (14)BGSU 31, (11)TCU 19
The slipper still fits! It sure seemed that way early, as the Horned Frogs fumbled on the first play from scrimmage. It was no fluke, as Eilar Hardy picked off Trevone Boykin and ran it back 42 yards for a touchdown to put the Falcons on top early. Tyler Tate bounced a field goal from 43 yards out off the upright following a TCU three and out, but the defense forced another, and this time Matt Johnson hit Ryan Burbrink for a 23 yard catch and run touchdown to make it 14-0. The Falcons again forced three and out, and Tate hit from 38 yards to make it 17-0 Bowling Green late in the first quarter. TCU threatened early in the second quarter, but Darrell Hunter picked off Boykin to end the threat. Bowling Green couldn't capitalize, TCU's Aaron Green answered with a 39 yard touchdown run to get TCU back into the game. On their next drive following a punt, Kolby Listenbee hauled in a 43 yard pass to set up a field goal, Tyler Tate missed from 43, and TCU was able to get downfield for another field goal at the buzzer to pull back within four. In the third quarter, Boykin hit KaVontae Turpin for a 31 yard completion to set up another field goal that made it 17-16 Bowling Green. Tate missed again from 34, but Alfonso Mack picked off Boykin deep in TCU territory, and Travis Greene capitalized with a five yard touchdown to make it 24-16. Johnson threw an interception for Bowling Green early in the fourth, but the Frogs were stuffed at the 11 and had to settle for another field goal. On the next drive, Travis Greene caught a short pass and took it for 70 yards, then Matt Johnson hit Ronnie Moore for a 14 yard touchdown to make it a 12 point game. The Frogs got to 1st and goal, but turned it over on downs, got a defensive stop, and Boykin threw another pick on the final play of the game to James Sanford, who ran out the clock.
Greene led the Falcons with 230 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on the ground, Matt Johnson completed 27 of 41 passes for 361 yards, two touchdowns and one pick, and Tyler Tate avoided wearing goat horns after making just one of his four field goals (though in fairness, the weather was bad). The weather may have also impacted Trevone Boykin, who completed just nine of his 29 passes for 143 yards and threw four interceptions, including a pick-six. Aaron Green ran 24 times for 178 yards and TCU's lone touchdown in the loss.
To see the updated bracket, click here.
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| Photo by Marc Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports) |
Meanwhile, we saw another team from the College Football Playoff fall in Oklahoma, with Ohio State knocking them off after a well-fought game. The defending College Football Playoff champions and semifinalists from the 2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs return to the round of four this year against Clemson, who needed some breaks to stay alive and avoid seeing the Fiesta Bowl predict one semifinal. Over on the other side of the bracket, Alabama ran away with another one and gets to host this year's Cinderella for a trip to Pasadena and a fictional, but more realistic, national championship.
Who will get to play for that national title? Will we see a couple of teams that take actual fields on New Years Eve getting simmed in Pasadena? Or will these two upstarts who crashed the party pull the upsets and get a chance at a national title? Check back next week to find out!
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