Yesterday was the scheduled day for the opening round of the playoffs, played on campuses from Tuscaloosa to Eugene; Waco to Columbus. Ten conference champions and six fortunate at-large teams got to battle it out for a shot at a national title. After yesterday, only half remain.
In case you aren't familiar with how the Death to the BCS Playoffs work, I'm running this like I have the past couple years. Higher seeds host all the games this weekend, and I am taking weather into account from official conditions in the host cities around kickoff time. Weather data is taken from weather.com. I also take injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to make sure that injured players don't impact the outcome (as best as I can, anyway). From there, I simulate each matchup as a best-of-three in an effort to get a more accurate picture of who would win that matchup and eliminate luck as a larger factor. The "clinching" game will be the official result for the purposes of the tournament. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some playoff football!
12pm Games
(16)Georgia Southern @ (1)Alabama
Game 2: (1)ALA 48, (16)GSU 7
Georgia Southern actually moved the ball fairly well on their opening drive, but punted from the Alabama 36 yard line. Even if it was fourth and 6, they wasted their best chance. Alabama needed just two plays to pass where the Eagles punted from and would eventually turn it into a touchdown. A 24 point second quarter for the Tide put it away, though the Eagles did avoid the shutout with a late score. Blake Sims completed 24 of his 28 passes for 290 yards and a pair of touchdowns to DeAndrew White. T.J. Yeldon ran for 176 yards on 23 carries while Amari Cooper caught nine passes for 111 yards. Kevin Ellison led the Eagles with 52 yards on 5-10 passing and 69 yards on 16 carries. Matt Breida had the lone Eagle touchdown.
(13)Marshall @ (4)Ohio State
Game 2:(13)MAR 33, (4)OSU 31
Game 3: (4)OSU 49, (13)MAR 34
First matchup of the day that took a third simulation! Marshall played very well early in this one, with Devon Johnson clearly not bothered by his shoulder, running for three first half touchdowns, the first of which came off a Curtis Samuel fumble in the red zone. The Buckeyes kept it close however, only trailing 24-21 at halftime. After a Marshall field goal, Ohio State scored 21 unanswered points to take control, also scoring a huge touchdown with about six minutes left to seal the deal, holding off multiple desperation Marshall drives. Third-string quarterback Cardale Jones was the leader of the rally, completing 24 of 34 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliot ran for 193 yards and two touchdowns while also hauling in a touchdown catch. Devon Johnson led the Herd with 257 yards on 21 carries and three first half scores, including runs of 71 and 64 yards.
3pm Games
(15)Memphis @ (2)Florida State
Game 2: (2)FSU 30, (15)MEM 6
This game was more interesting than the final score would suggest. Florida State turned it over on their first two possessions, both in Memphis territory (including a fumble recovered in the end zone). Memphis would turn the fumble into a field goal. Florida State answered with a field goal a few minutes later, then Dalvin Cook took a sweep 52 yards to the house with under a minute to go to make it 10-3. Memphis got a field goal on their first possession, then blocked an FSU punt and managed a red zone pick. Still, they couldn't do anything. Florida State finally got out of their own way and scored 20 fourth quarter points to put it away. Jameis Winston did not have a great game; despite going22-36 through the air for 295 yards, his three interceptions nearly cost his team. Dalvin Cook helped bail him out with 148 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and the Seminole defense, led by Rick Leonard's two sacks dominated. Memphis also went 0-4 on fourth down attempts, and kicker Jake Elliot went 2-4 on field goals.
(9)Arizona @ (8)Georgia Tech
Game 2: (8)GT 24, (9)ARZ 16
Game 3: (9)ARZ 27, (8)GT 24
What a matchup. Davonte' Neal hauled in a 72 yard pass late in the first quarter to set up a Terris Jones-Grigsby touchdown. The Wildcats would convert a pair of third downs en route to another touchdown to make it 14-0 early in the second quarter. The Jackets came roaring back though; Justin Thomas hit Darren Waller for a 71 yard touchdown pass, then Georgia Tech recovered their own fumble on their next drive and added another touchdown to tie it. Arizona would go up 20-17 after three, but were able to capitalize on their drive bridging the final two quarters with a touchdown to make it 27-17. The Jackets needed just three plays to answer back, aided by a pair of long sweeps. Arizona was able to recover a pair of Tech fumbles late, including one with under a minute to play, and Harrison Butker missed a 49 yard field goal with about four minutes left that would have tied the game. Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon had a good game, completing 20 of 32 passes for 310 yards and a pair of scores. Justin Thomas led the Jackets with 200 yards on eight of 13 passing with a touchdown, but he was held to just 17 yards rushing on 13 carries, plus a lost fumble.
6pm Games
(12)UCLA @ (5)Baylor
Game 2: (5)BAY 43, (12)UCLA 24
This was a fairly competitive game, as each team scored in the opening quarter, but Baylor bridged the first two quarters with a touchdown drive to make it 14-7, then got a short field after pinning UCLA deep and forcing a three and out, and needed just four plays to make it 21-7. UCLA was able to answer with a touchdown, Baylor added a field goal, and Brett Hundley was picked off with under a minute left in the first half to keep it a 24-14 game. Baylor punted in UCLA territory to start the second half, but they took advantage, picking up a safety on a sack of Hundley. UCLA would come back, getting a field goal and then recovered a fumble in Baylor territory, leading to a touchdown to make it 26-24. Baylor got a field goal back, forced a three and out, then marched downfield to add a touchdown to put the game away. Hundley would throw another pick later to kill any thoughts of a comeback. Bryce Petty led Baylor with 300 yards passing on 21 of 30 attempts, while Shock Linwood ran for 114 yards on 29 carries, notching a pair of touchdowns. Hundley completed 14 of 24 passes for 216 yards and a score, but also threw two picks.
(11)Ole Miss @ (6) TCU
Game 2: (11)MISS 31, (6)TCU 20
Trevone Boykin was picked off on the opening possession of the game, but the Rebels couldn't convert a field goal as a result. Boykin then scrambled for short gains as part of a three and out, which set up Bo Wallace to hit Evan Engram for a 47 yard touchdown pass to open the scoring. TCU made it to the red zone finally, but had to settle for a field goal. Wallace would add another touchdown pass early in the second to make it 14-3. Boykin again led the Horned Frogs to the red zone, but took a key sack to only manage another field goal. Ole Miss added a late field goal to make it 17-6 at the break. Boykin would finally break through late in the third quarter with a touchdown run and make it 17-13. Ole Miss converted a third and 15 to open the fourth quarter however, and would add a touchdown despite a sack of Wallace to reopen the gap. TCU missed a field goal, and the Rebels marched downfield again for another touchdown to make it 31-13. The Frogs made it interesting with a quick touchdown and a red zone drive, but the Rebels made a goal line stand to steal the road win. Wallace completed 14 of 27 passes for 261 yards and three scores to lead the way for the Rebels, while their defense made Trevone Boykin's day a nightmare. Boykin completed 17 of 27 passes for 218 yards and an interception, while holding him to just 26 yards rushing on 20 carries, though he did have a rushing touchdown. Aaron Green led the Frogs' rushing attack with 127 yards on 14 carries, including a 74 yard touchdown.
9pm Games
(14)Northern Illinois @ (3)Oregon
Game 2:(14)NIU 33, (3)ORE 24
Game 3: (3)ORE 67, (14)NIU 0
Okay, I knew after NIU pulled that stunner in the Game 2 upset that there was no way they'd win another sim, but damn. Marcus Mariota hit Royce Freeman for a 39 yard touchdown to open the scoring, and it just ballooned from there. The Huskies just couldn't get anything going, missing a field goal in the second quarter when it was 20-0 that might have changed the momentum, then missed another at the end of the first half, but by then it was 33-0. In fairness to the Huskies, they only turned it over once, and that was in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach. Inexplicably, Marcus Mariota played the entire game, completing 18 of 24 passes for 292 yards and four scores. Royce Freeman ran 25 times for 224 yards and a touchdown, while Byron Marshall ran nine times for 117 yards and scored three times. Drew Hare completed just 12 of 26 passes for 153 yards for the Huskies.
(10)Missouri @ (7)Boise State
Game 2: (10)MIZZ 30, (7)BSU 27
Missouri actually had to mount a comeback in this one. A pair of Boise State penalties on the opening drive led to a Tiger field goal, but Dan Goodale missed a 43 yard field goal to tie it (hold that thought). After a Missouri punt, the Broncos moved the ball downfield for a go-ahead touchdown. The Tigers would add another field late in the quarter to make it 7-6, then another in the middle of the second to make it 9-7. Goodale added a pair of his own to make it 13-9 at the break, including one at the buzzer. Missouri's offense finally broke through in the second half though, as Russell Hansbrough punched one in from 13 yards out. Jay Ajayi would answer with one of his own to retake the lead. Late in the quarter, Missouri added another field goal to make it a one point game, then Ian Simon picked off Grant Hedrick. Another field goal gave the Tigers the lead back, but it wouldn't last. Hedrick hit Chaz Anderson for a 53 yard gain, setting up a 10 yard touchdown to Dallas Burroughs. With 6:44 left, Missouri took over on their 13 and marched downfield, converting a 3rd and 15 and a 3rd and 4 from the five, as Hansbrough plunged it i. Maty Mauk hit Bud Sasser for two and took a 30-27 lead with 2:08 left. The Broncos would get as close as the Tiger 31, but Hedrick was sacked twice, including on the final play of the game by Charles Harris to clinch the win for the Tigers. Hedrick would finish 20 of 26 for 300 yards and two scores, but a costly pick that led to Missouri points, while Jay Ajayi finished with 157 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, plus 53 yards on three catches. Russell Hansbrough was the hero for the Tigers, rushing for 131 yards on 20 carries and two touchdowns, including the game winner.
To see the updated bracket, click here.
The quarterfinals feature some pretty compelling games. A lot of people argued about either Baylor or TCU getting the last College Football Playoff spot. With TCU out, the task falls to Baylor, and they get their chance in Columbus next week. Alabama has to face a pretty good Arizona team in prime time, but it's in Alabama. The early game sends Missouri to Tallahassee to take on the Seminoles in what should be a really good game, and we close out the round with Ole Miss heading out to Oregon. It should be a pretty compelling week next week. Check back on Sunday to see the second round results.
Christmas is on Thursday, so I'm taking a break for most of the week, save for the Week 17 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em picks, which are important because of how tight the race is. To you and yours, have a Merry Christmas!
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