2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

I have to get used to the fact that this is not the end and that there's one more week.

I'm actually kind of glad though, because as the coalition returns for the penultimate week of the 2021 campaign, I still have a little work to do.

We went podcast this past week, and while I took three of five from Adam, five of seven from Joe, and Adam took five of eight from Joe, Adam still maintains a five game lead in the group with 32 to play. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

The lack of a Thursday night game means we got to push back the schedule a little bit compared to normal, so this went live on a Friday. Poor Adam noted with his picks that he was so looking forward to a crappy Thursday night game and now he's got nothing.

As we get set to make our picks for the final time in 2021, Adam and I disagree on six games. Joe unfortunately didn't get his picks in on Thursday night at editing time, but I'll add his in after the fact if they come in.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a safe and happy New Year! Let's get to the picks.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

The coalition is back at it as we have just three weeks left in the NFL season!

It was a great showing for Adam this past week as he took four of five disputed games from me, four of six from Joe, and Joe took three of five from me. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

Given that we're approaching Christmas, Adam happened to be in town. Since he's in town, and schedules happened to align where Joe was also free... our Week 16 picks were done in podcast form. You can find that after the jump.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a safe and Merry Christmas!

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

Just four weeks remain, and the coalition is tightening up in our quest to pick NFL games against the spread.

Adam maintains his three game lead through 14 weeks as we split our four disputed games; Joe took three of five from me and four of seven from Adam. But it was Jim who was the big mover this week with a dominant Sunday effort, only missing on that Niners-Jags overtime game, and then on Monday night. He's now in a tie for third, but Adam and I have a few games' worth of cushion at the top. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

With COVID ravaging professional sports, we decided that for this week, mulligans are free if a team has a key player announced out due to protocol that would have one of us change our pick. I haven't used one yet this year; Adam has used a couple.

This week, byes are done, so we're back to the full 16 game slate. Adam and I disagree on five games, Joe and I on six, and Joe and Adam on seven. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois Wesleyan University @ North Central College (12/15/21)

Final Score
IWU 73, NCC 48

Game Summary
The Cardinals (4-3, 1-1) opened the game with back to back threes and had me optimistic about the proceedings. But the Titans (8-1, 2-1) fought back and for a brief moment it seemed like we'd have a nice back and forth on our hands. The Cardinals scored to go up 12-9 with 13:35 to go in the first half. And then it all went to hell, as North Central went without a basket for ten minutes as the Titans scored 25 unanswered points. A late Cardinal surge cut it to 36-20 Titans by halftime, and a decent early push in the second half got it to 39-26 IWU. But the Titans slowly built the lead back up and the Cardinals would get no closer.

Key Players

• Peter Lambesis (IWU): 6-8 FG (0-2 3PT), 3-3 FT; 15 pts, 4 reb, 7 ast, 2 stl. Hard to pick just one or two guys given the good balance this Titan team had, but Lambesis led all scorers in this one and got his teammates involved. A good performance.
• Cory Noe (IWU): 4-7 FG (all 3PT); 12 pts, 1 reb, 1 blk. I could have gone with Luke Yoder (13 pts) or Matt Leritz (11-7), but Noe hit a few big threes for this Titans team that really got the Titan fans in the building going. Again, sheer balance.
• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 4-9 FG (1-5 3PT), 1-3 FT; 10 pts, 7 reb, 1 stl. Not a lot of good picks for the Cardinals tonight. Blaise hit a three on the opening possession and seemed poised for a good night, but he struggled the rest of the way on offense. He got his rebounds and tied for the game-high there, but that was about it.

Key Stats

• NCC: 17-52 FG (32.7%). That includes a 4-23 mark from three (17.4%). The Cardinals missed 15 in a row during that almost ten minute drought. And that was pretty much the ballgame.
• IWU: 27 points off 16 NCC turnovers. That's an impressive number. There were a few fast break opportunities for the Titans, but they also took advantage of dead ball turnovers as well. North Central, for its part, forced 16 turnovers as well, but only got nine points off them.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• WBK: @ IWU 74 (5-4, 3-0), NCC 59 (4-6, 1-1)

Final Thoughts
I'm just gonna leave this here.

https://t.co/uJ4IOeKSrr pic.twitter.com/siiXBJoQ0J

— Lucas Mitzel🎙 (@northsider89) December 16, 2021

There wasn't much to get excited about as a Cardinal fan. This Titan team came in ranked fourth in the country, and showed they deserve that ranking. This was a butt kicking.

The Cardinals are off on the road now for a while, with a game at Millikin on Saturday, a swing through Michigan to hopefully right the ship, then a couple games in Orlando before gettting back into the gauntlet. They'll need to be ready on this trip, because they need to get right with some tough games on the docket.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

The coalition returns as we have just a few weeks left of this NFL season!

I ended up shooting my shot last week, but went 0-3 on my hero picks. Miraculously though, Adam and I split our six disputed games, leaving me still just three out of first place. Joe didn't submit picks last week, so we didn't track how he did in comparison, though he's climbing back into the race a little bit.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. This week, Adam and I disagree on just four games out of 14. Joe is also back after a week off; he and I disagree on five games, while he and Adam disagree on seven. Let's get to it!

2021 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

And now for one of the most fun features I do on a yearly basis.

The FBS regular season is officially complete, the College Football Playoff has its bracket, which also means it's time to unveil this year's Death to the BCS Playoff bracket!

I spent some time Sunday afternoon finalizing metrics, then spent a bunch of time looking over data points to pick the at large teams, and then seed the field. I'm pretty sure I mentioned this in my season opener, but let's go over the primary criteria one more time.

• Record. This is a given. An undefeated team is getting in. A one loss team is all but a lock to get in. Two losses puts you in decent shape, but you need help. You get the idea.
• Playoff Points. This comes in three types.
• First Degree Playoff Points (PP1). A team receives one point for the number of wins of each opponent they defeat. For example, a two win team that beat a six win team and a one win team would have seven points.
• Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2). This is the average number of First Degree Playoff Points by each opponent they defeat. Back to that two win team example, the six win team had 20 PP1, and the one win team had zero, resulting in a PP2 for our example team of 10.00.
• Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP). The same as First Degree Playoff Points, except the number of losses by each opponent that defeated a team is subtracted from the score. As an example, an 11-1 team whose only loss was to an undefeated team would have an identical aPP to their PP1, but an 11-1 team whose lone loss came to a 6-6 team would have six points deducted from their PP1 to calculate their aPP.
• Computer rankings. Formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS) are synthesized into an average score, but are also looked at individually.
• Record versus Playoff Opponents. As opposed to "wins versus playoff opponents;" if you lose to a playoff team that's not necessarily a bad thing. Wins versus playoff teams, obviously, are a better thing, but an 0-1 record against playoff teams is arguably better than a 0-0 mark, all other things being equal. Obviously, this means head to head results come directly into play.
• IMPORTANT NOTE: This gets recalculated multiple times throughout the process. We start with just the automatic bid teams as being considered, then as each at large team is selected, the numbers get rerun.

Additionally, I do my best to avoid first round rematches unless seedings more or less force my hand (if, say, the 1-16 game would be a rematch but I feel like I can't avoid it without screwing over the #1 seed). Higher seeds host through the first three rounds, before the title game gets played at the Rose Bowl the same night as the national title game. I also want to note from the outset (and if you read the preview for this past week, you'd have seen this), but Baylor is banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs because they should have gotten the death penalty for covering up sexual assault. Call it the Joe Paterno Rule, as Penn State got banned first.

I'm going to go over the rationale for everything after the jump. In the interest of drama... let's go to the podcast for the bracket reveal.

Game Notes: (MBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (12/4/21)

Final Score
NCC 91, Carthage 59

Game Summary
Looking at the final score, you might be surprised that it was the Firebirds (4-3, 0-2) that got off to a hot start, getting an easy layup followed by back to back threes on their first three possessions for an 8-0 lead just two minutes in, forcing a pissed off Todd Raridon to call timeout. Whatever he said worked though, as the Cardinals (4-1, 1-0) responded with a 13-3 run that forced Steve Djurikovic to take one for Carthage. The Firebirds tied it out of the timeout, but a 7-0 Cardinal run gave them control once again, and while Carthage stayed close for a while, the Cardinals slowly pulled away, taking a ten point halftime lead, then survived the early Firebird push that cut it to six, and other than a brief moment where they cut it back to nine a couple minutes later, the Cardinals led by double digits the rest of the way, pushing the margin to 20 with seven and a half to play, and the end of the bench got it over 30 in the final couple minutes.

Key Players

• Matt Helwig (NCC): 10-18 FG (4-5 3PT), 7-7 FT; 31 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 7 ast, 1 stl. Matt Helwig is making an early case for First Team All-CCIW. He's had some huge games out of the gate for the Cardinals, and was huge for them here. He scored NCC's first seven points and 10 of the first 13 to get the Cardinals back into it, then poured it on as the game continued. Adding in all the rebounds and assists (including a couple really nice ones) was the icing on the cake.
• Ethan Helwig (NCC): 9-16 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-6 FT; 25 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast. Ethan had the other three of those first 13 points, but stayed involved throughout the rest of this one, hitting from both outside and inside. While he didn't contribute as much to the box score as Matt did, this has probably been Ethan's best game of his young NCC career.
• Fillip Bulatovic (CAR): 7-18 FG (0-4 3PT), 5-13 FT; 19 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 4 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Bulatovic is one of the best players in the CCIW, and has played some great games at Merner Fieldhouse. This wasn't a bad one... but it wasn't great, either. He had a rough night at the line, and shot okay, though NCC defended him pretty well throughout. He's going to get his, but the Cardinals made him work for it. Bulatovic also got T'd up in this one... more on that later.

Key Stats

• NCC: 12-19 3PT (63.2%). My vocal cords got a workout tonight. They really got this going after that first timeout when Matt Helwig buried a three and got fouled for a four point play to literally cut the Carthage lead in half... something that's really hard to do with an eight point lead. Ethan had a good night as well, Shea hit a few big ones, Blaise got one before Todd Raridon called off the dogs, and Human Victory Cigar Barak Diehl hit a couple in garbage time to push the final margin over 30.
• CAR: 9-20 FT (45.0%). I feel like it's cheating to go with threes for both teams, and there's not a lot else to look at when you lose by 32, so we'll go with a stat that has to be somewhat alarming for the Firebirds. As noted above, a lot of these misses were by Bulatovic. He missed his first two tries of the game, prompting a joking "Time to try the Hack-a-Fillip" from the official scorer, but it's weird how on the money he was. This is something the Firebirds will need to clean up if they want to compete in the CCIW this year.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ MIL 70 (5-3, 1-0), AUG 45 (4-4, 0-1)
• @ ELM 76 (7-1, 1-0), WHE 75 (7-1, 1-1)
• Jake Rhode hit a halfcourt shot at the buzzer
• @ IWU 63, (7-0, 1-0), CRL 44 (3-4, 0-1)
• Illinois Wesleyan retains possession of The Belt^TM
• Eastern Illinois 76, NPU 71 (3-2, 0-0)
• Game does not count toward's NPU's record

Final Thoughts

This was, admittedly, kind of a weird game even beyond those dueling scoring runs in the first couple of minutes. Both teams ended up getting flop warnings (NCC had one by I think Ethan Helwig late in the first half after a three attempt, Carthage got one trying to draw a charge), and after the Carthage one there was a brief stoppage of play. Things got weirder later when Fillip Bulatovic got fouled on a shot attempt, and immediately afterwards, Carthage's Nemi Ostojic got a technical foul, though I didn't see for what. This resulted in Bulatovic getting to shoot his free throws with no one in the lane, followed by Matt Helwig taking technical free throws for the Cardinals. Then with the Cardinals up 18 following a pretty Ethan Helwig layup, he ran into Bulatovic coming back down, Bulatovic pushed him, and I feel like Helwig embellished it a little bit, but he got away with it, drawing a technical foul on Bulatovic and two more Matt Helwig free throws.

All of this occurred with former Carthage head coach and current assistant Bosko Djurikovic watching from well behind us. We didn't even know he was there until we heard his familiar bellowing from behind us. It was good to see him back at a CCIW basketball game though.

The Cardinals will have a few days to get ready to get back to work with a tough one on the docket as they head north to go take on UW-Oshkosh for the first time since... well, you remember.

Game Notes: (WBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (12/4/21)

Final Score
NCC 50, Carthage 40

Game Summary
This one was never really in doubt as the Cardinals (4-4, 1-0) jumped out to an 8-0 lead and never looked back. The Firebirds (4-3, 1-1) couldn't really claw back as North Central pushed the lead to double digits by late in the opening frame and led 16-8 after the first ten minutes. The Cardinals got it right back to double digits in the second, and other than a brief moment of Carthage cutting it to nine, it stayed there, with back to back threes late making it 31-16 going into the break. North Central led by as many as 18, and did get cold in the fourth again, but the lead was sufficient, and the Firebirds would get no closer than eight in the closing stages.

Key Players

• Mitrese Smith (NCC): 7-12 FG, 1-1 FT; 15 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 1 blk. It's great to have a threat in the paint, and Mitrese has looked pretty good so far this season. Granted, this is just the second home game of the year, so I haven't seen much, but this was a good showing. She's also picked up a good elbow jumper as well, which is a nice weapon to have in the arsenal.
• Elle Sutter (NCC): 3-7 FG (2-5 3PT), 1-2 FT; 9 pts, 11 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Elle Sutter made some good plays in the opener against St. Mary's, and played well enough to work her way into the starting lineup in recent weeks. She's rewarded the faith placed in her with another good performance in this one on both ends, wreaking some havoc defensively while showing some scoring prowess. And she's only a sophomore.
• Lauren Knight (CAR): 5-9 FG (3-3 3PT), 2-2 FT; 15 pts, 6 reb. Knight went down in the first half with what looked like a leg injury, and couldn't seem to put any weight on it. But she came back in in the second half, and was hitting some long threes to try and get the Firebirds back into it. The Cardinals did a good job after she hit a couple though to try and make her work harder for those shots, and ultimately limited the damage.

Key Stats

• NCC: 14 assists on 18 field goals. It was hard to pick one thing, because a lot of the stats were pretty close in this one, but this jumped out at me when I went to look at it. That level of assists to field goals is really good, and even though the offense went cold in the fourth, the defense stayed strong and held on to get a win against a good Carthage team.
• CAR: 12-53 FG (22.6%). This was the big thing for me. NCC played outstanding defense in this one, including holding the Firebirds to 4-22 shooting from beyond the arc. Getting six steals and blocking three shots, including one or two impressive plays, was awesome too.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ MIL 73 (5-3, 1-0), AUG 62 (5-3, 0-1)
• WHE 75 (8-1, 1-1), @ ELM 57 (1-7, 0-1)
• @ IWU 75 (3-4, 1-0), CRL 62 (5-1, 0-1)
• @ NPU 73 (6-1, 0-0), Chicago 64

Final Thoughts

It was good to get back at it after this team was away from home for so long. I wasn't sure what to expect tonight, considering this Carthage team had just won against Wheaton on Wednesday, and Tim Bernero's squads have always been tough to play. But the Cardinals got out to that great start, literally never trailed, and bounced back in a big way after getting trounced at Chicago on Wednesday. It gets the team to .500 on the year, but also gets a big first conference win, something that took several tries in the shortened campaign last winter. The Cardinals are on the bye in conference on Wednesday, but welcome in UW-Stevens Point for a 6pm contest that night.

2021 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Auto Bid Games and At Large Picture

This is a more recent feature as part of the Death to the BCS Playoff series. Especially since I haven't been doing mock brackets this year, this means this post becomes all the more important.

Championship Weekend is all but upon us. That means ten games to determine ten conference champions, all of whom will get an automatic bid into the Death to the BCS Playoffs. For some, their playoff bid may be a formality, others may need to win that game to ensure they're already in. For still others, this is a game merely for seeding purposes. So many motivations all in play here.

There is one additional game being played this weekend: the makeup of Cal-USC that was postponed due to COVID a few weeks ago. Neither team is in the running for a playoff spot, but that game will have some ancillary effects on playoff contenders (possible additional playoff points).

I'll go into the full playoff criteria when I reveal the playoff field, but to give a general idea of what's going to happen with at large selection, I'm borrowing a process from Division III of the NCAA. They split the country into geographic regions, rank teams in each region, then for at large (what D-III calls "Pool C"), they take the top ranked team from each region that didn't earn an automatic bid and put them "at the table" for selection. They'll pick the best team based on criteria from that group, then the next team up from that region comes to the table. We'll do this for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, except by conference instead of region.

So with that in mind, let's look at the conference title games and what each conference's at large chances are.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

The coalition returns to the column as we move into the final third of the 2021 NFL season!

Just six weeks remain, and most of the byes have been taken at this point, so pretty soon we'll be back to the full 16 game slates. Those will be big, as the gap continues to narrow.

Just two weeks ago, Adam had a double digit lead among the group. After I took four of five in last week's podcast episode (and the same margin from Joe while the two of them split their six disputed games), Adam's margin is down to just three games as his success with hero picks has started to come back down to earth. He said when he sent me his picks for this week that it seemed like he was trying to be overly contrarian and is planning to move more to the mean this time around. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 14, so for the first time in a few weeks the lead is up for grabs. Let's get to it!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 13

It's nitty-gritty time. Rivalry week is in the rear view mirror, and with Championship Weekend on the horizon, we have one final season-ending update for these rankings to come.

I don't count championship games for Playoff Points; it skews the numbers too much for the roughly 15 percent of teams fortunate enough to get what is essentially an early playoff game that can unfairly alter the picture for the remaining 85 percent. I do update win/loss totals following those games, which will have smaller, ancillary effects on teams, but not the big leaps that we see on a week in, week out basis with these rankings.

I missed the NCSS ranking post this past week, so I'm going to include it as a part of this final batch of rankings for Playoff Points, just as a point of reference for everyone.

Game Notes: (MBK) Aurora University @ North Central College (11/27/21)

Final Score
NCC 76, Aurora 44

Game Summary
This one didn't get off to a great start as the Spartans (1-4) scored the game's first four points before the Cardinals (3-1) got things figured out and overcame one last deficit at 6-4, embarking on a 14-2 run that spanned about seven minutes and gave North Central total control. Aurora never got closer than within eight the rest of the way as the Cardinals built a 33-15 halftime lead, then all but it out of reach with eight straight to open the second half. The margin was at least 20 from that point on, and was in the 30's for a good chunk of the half, allowing Todd Raridon to empty his bench for the final couple minutes.

Key Players

• Matt Helwig (NCC): 8-14 FG (3-6 3PT), 3-4 FT; 22 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl. Matt has become the go-to offensive guy for the Cardinals in the early going of the campaign; after a monster performance in the Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue earlier in the week, he scored the first dozen points of the game for the Cardinals to help set the tone while the rest of the squad got going.
• Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 4-7 FG (2-4 3PT); 10 pts, 1 reb, 1 stl. There weren't a ton of other outstanding Cardinals looking at the box score, but I was pretty impressed with what Moncrief brought to the table in 22 minutes of action. He was an early sub for the Cardinals and hit a couple threes as part of that 14-2 run that gave the Cardinals control for the evening. He's got good burst and a pretty good shot; I think he'll be a good piece going forward for this team, and as a freshman, he's got time to blossom.
• Shamar Pumphrey (AUR): 3-16 FG (1-5 3PT); 7 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl. There were no good picks for Aurora, so we'll go with a guy that felt like a microcosm of their game tonight. When you tie for your team's lead in scoring with seven points... you're not having a good night.

Key Stats

• NCC: 10-24 3PT (41.7%). Coming into this one, the Cardinals were shooting a putrid 21.7% from three point range, so a confidence booster was needed, and tonight provided one. Getting the early spark from Matt Helwig and Terrance Moncrief was good as other guys got into the action as the game went on. The ten made threes matched the total from the first three games and pumped the Cardinals' numbers for the season up a full seven percentage points to a still rough 28.6 percent. We'll get there.
• AUR: 22 points off 20 NCC turnovers. I don't know if Aurora features a press as part of its main defensive strategy or it's something they saw that had given the Cardinals some fits in the early going, but it did help to some extent. Aurora only managed eight points off turnovers in the first half before picking it up a bit in the second (though a lot of that stemmed from a generally awful first half offensively).

Final Thoughts
There's not much to take from this game, and I won't sugarcoat it: this Spartan team is not very good. You have to beat the teams you're supposed to, and in that regard the Cardinals took care of business. But I'm not lauding this as some sort of masterpiece, because the Cardinals do have to clean some things up. I was a little surprised to see North Central finished with a 40-32 rebounding edge, because the Spartans had an edge in the first half. This is something the Cardinals will need to clean up, because CCIW play is fast approaching. North Central has a week now to prepare for the Carthage Firebirds to come invade Gregory Arena to open conference play.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

The coalition returns... except to your ears this time.

It's tradition for the Week 12 Pigskin Pick 'Em feature to go up a day early given the holiday. The newer tradition is that, instead of going full column, Adam and I are doing a podcast episode with our picks. Joe unfortunately wasn't able to join our recording session on Tuesday, but he did send picks along, so his are all mentioned on here in addition to mine and Adam's for your listening pleasure.

Last week I took five of six disputed picks from Adam and three of four from Joe, while Joe had that same three of four margin over Adam. Adam remains in first place in the group, but his lead narrows. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

Let's get to the table and feast! From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 12

Just one week of the regular season remains!

We have rivalry week coming up this weekend as the conference races start to come to a close and we get ready for postseason play and the Death to the BCS Playoffs. And that's where these rankings come in.

Just about everything is set in stone in terms of conferences, though the individual team races are still somewhat up for grabs.

Let's look at how we stack up through 12 weeks.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

The coalition returns to action for another week of picking NFL games!

Joe joined us for last week's slate, and for us... it did not go well. And then there's Adam, who swept three hero picks, making the difference as he took four of five from me and six of seven from Joe, while I took three of four from Joe.

This builds Adam's lead to double digits as the rest of us are a mix of treading water above .500 to fairly far below. Adam's incredible success in hero picks (both in terms of rate and volume) is the reason for his large lead. Odd year magic is at it again. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

Joe joins us again this week, and in this 15 game slate, Adam and I disagree on six, Joe and I on four, and Joe and Adam on four games. Let's get to it!

Editor note: Prior to kickoff on Sunday, both Adam and Joe used a mulligan to change their picks from Ravens -6.5 to Bears +6.5. And then prior to kickoff on Monday, Joe used a second mulligan to change his pick from Buccaneers -11.5 to Giants +11.5. Joe and Adam have both used two of their four mulligans for the season. Column was updated Monday 11/22 to reflect these changes.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

The penultimate week of the regular season gets underway tonight, which means it's time to get a quick peek at what's coming up.

We've got MACtion again each of the next two nights, which will help determine one automatic bid recipient, and likely not any at large berths. Most of that will come on Saturday, which is also when the D-III playoffs kick off, something I'm excited for.

There won't be many adjustments this week, though next week's batch of rivalry games certainly will. We'll see just how much that swings the pendulum, but for right now, here's where we're at going into Week 12.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 11

I am to some degree in full playoff mode, as D-III had their selection show for the playoffs on Sunday. Meanwhile, the FBS still has two more weeks of regular season games, plus Championship Weekend, on the docket. And with another week's worth of games in the books from last week, I need to take a look at the results and how things change now.

I'm still up in the air about doing a mock bracket, though with basketball clear for another week or two, I may have time to pull that off, and it won't seem like I'm doing too much anymore I don't think.

But for now, let's look at how the results from this past week have changed the numbers here.

Game Notes: California Lutheran University @ North Central College (11/10/21)

Final Score
CLU 80, NCC 79

Game Summary
This was a heartbreaker, but it started well enough as the Cardinals (0-1) scored the game's first five points and held the Kingsmen (1-0) off the board for the first six minutes before their offense finally woke up. It was tight for a while, with a couple lead changes and a few ties before the Cardinals started to separate a little bit with a 12-3 run to build a nine point lead with about five and a half to go in the opening half. But the Kingsmen stuck around, cutting the deficit to three a couple times before going into the break down 35-30 to North Central. The Cardinals started the second half hot, scoring nine of the first ten points within the first two minutes to build a 13 point advantage, their high water mark of the night. But again, the Kingsmen did not go away, as they slowly chipped into NCC's lead, making it a one possession game with about 12 minutes to play, and taking their first lead since the first half about a minute later. The teams traded half a dozen one point leads after that before Cal Lutheran took its biggest lead of the night at five. But the Cardinals had a strong push left in them, and they retook the lead with an 8-0 run with about four minutes to play. North Central had a pair of four point leads in the final two minutes, but both times the Kingsmen responded with a three to cut it to one. After a Cardinal miss with 20 seconds to go, the Kingsmen got a foul call with 5.3 ticks left, hit both free throws to take a one point lead, and the Cardinals' last gasp was well covered and fell short, giving the Kingsmen a great start to their three game Chicago swing.

Key Players

• Mason Johnson (CLU): 7-15 FG (1-3 3PT), 6-10 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 3 stl. There were a number of heroes for the Kingsmen in this one, but we'll go with the guy who gave them the win. Johnson had the ball down on the baseline on their final possession, drew a foul with 5.3 seconds left, and despite Merner getting loud, he calmly hit both free throws (even with a North Central timeout in between) that gave his team the final lead of the game, and the one that held.
• Jacob Alonzo (CLU): 6-9 FG (1-1 3PT), 3-3 FT; 16 pts, 4 reb (3 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. Alonzo was one of the smaller guys on the court last night, but he certainly didn't play like it. He hit several big shots in this one, and the rebounding numbers (especially offensively) were strong. He also distributed the ball well and got a couple steals in the Kingsmen's 3-2 zone trap.
• Matt Helwig (NCC): 9-16 FG (1-3 3PT), 2-2 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. I almost went with Blaise Meredith (18 and 9), but Matt was probably better for more of the game. Most of his points came when the Cardinals were able to break the trap, as they found a ton of easy layups in this one. The rebounding numbers were nice too. Hopefully this is a good start to the season for him.

Key Stats

• NCC: 15-24 FT (62.5%). Look, when you lose by a single point, this is the number I'm going to go look at, and it backs up the result. The big miss for me was when Blaise Meredith was fouled on a made three with 90 seconds to go, and he couldn't cash in on the four point play. That would have gotten the Cardinals to 80, and forced overtime assuming Cal Lutheran went with the same play they did down one. To be fair to Blaise though, he wasn't the only one who struggled; Ethan Helwig hit just one of four freebies in his first game as a Cardinal, Blaise missed a couple others, and Brian Johnson split a pair earlier in the game. But more alarming...
• CLU: 32 points off 21 NCC turnovers. This was the other big number. The Cardinals got sloppy against that zone trap, often getting themselves stuck in corners and having to try to bail themselves out, only to cough it up. 12 of North Central's 21 turnovers came in the second half, with those 12 giveaways leading to 20 Kingsmen points.

Final Thoughts

Photo by Mark Black

Honorable mention stat: 69 of Cal Lutheran's 80 points came off the bench. I don't think I'll ever see a higher percentage of scoring come from reserves, probably not even in a System game.

This one hurt. The Cardinals led for a majority of this game, and while I won't say they were in control necessarily, the lead was such that they had a good margin for much of it. I don't know if they took their feet off the gas or what, but credit the Kingsmen for coming into a tough building and gutting out a hard-fought win. They continue their Chicago trip with a game at IIT on Friday and close it out at North Park on Sunday.

For North Central, this is a tough pill to swallow; normally there's a clunker or two at home, especially at the start of the year. They'll have to get ready to get back to work, because they're going to be running a ton on Saturday as they head out to take on Greenville and The System.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

I can exhale from basketball now for a couple weeks. Let's get back to the coalition, shall we?

I'm okay, I guess, with how I closed out the first half of the season. I'm not thrilled that Adam took four of our six disputed games last week, but I am happy that I did well enough that I'm now tied for second in the group with Geoffrey and behind just Adam for the group lead, even if the gap is widening a little bit.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's big advantage has come in the fact that he has almost half of the group's total hero picks, and he's hit on half of those; he's also done really well in minority picks (where just he and one other of us have gotten that game right). We're also doing pretty well when we all come to a consensus.

The other fun thing this week: after some bullying persuading, we finally talked Joe into joining the column. I'm not sure if this will be a permanent thing or not, but given his enjoyment of the memes over our group text, I'm glad he's finally sharing his wit with all of you.

This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14, Joe and I on four, and Adam and Joe on seven. Let's get to it!

2021-22 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Yesterday was a busy day, and today it continues as the men make their season debut.

It'll be another evening at Merner Fieldhouse for me, which I'm excited for once again. It should be an interesting campaign on this end as well, so let's take a look at what to expect on the other side.

Game Notes: St. Mary's College @ North Central College (11/9/21)

Final Score
NCC 58, SMC 47

Game Summary
Wasn't the prettiest game, but the Cardinals (1-0) came out of the gate strong on the defensive end, putting the clamps on the Belles (0-1) for the first several minutes, allowing just a single free throw as they were able to build a 15-1 lead eight minutes in. Then the cold spell set in, as the Belles scored the last five of the opening quarter and the first 11 of the second quarter to take their first lead of the contest. St. Mary's would push their lead as high as seven midway through the frame before the Cardinal offense woke up, and thanks in part to a late jumper cut it to two at 27-25 Belles going into the break. The Cardinals opened the second half on a 6-0 run, keeping the Belles off the board for the first four and a half minutes and only allowed a single field goal, giving NCC a 35-31 lead after three. A 7-0 Cardinal run early in the fourth pushed NCC's lead back to double digits, and the Belles would get no closer than within seven the rest of the way.

Key Players

• Allison Pearson (NCC): 5-12 FG (4-9 3PT); 14 pts, 7 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. The five turnovers were a little alarming, but the six assists more than made up for it. She hit a trio of early threes, including one that kind of banked home and elicited a smile coming back down the court. I wondered if it was a sign of a good day upcoming, and her numbers tonight were good, but she didn't threaten the record book or anything. Underrated is the rebounding, especially among some taller players. Good start to the year.
• IxChel Leeuwenburgh (NCC): 5-14 FG; 10 pts, 11 reb (5 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. I continue to be impressed at how well IxChel has improved as a player. She had a very strong outing in this one, and while the shooting left a little to be desired, she led all players in rebounds, bearing in mind that she did double dip on a couple offensive boards to get a putback at one point. I'll allow it though.
• Elle Deardorff (SMC): 6-13 FG (3-6 3PT), 4-6 FT; 19 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 1 stl. Deardorff was probably the best player for a team playing its first game in almost two years. It was a pretty good shooting night for her, with all of her made threes coming in the second quarter to get her to double figures by the break. She got slowed down in the second half, which was a big reason for the Cardinal victory.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded SMC 45-31. I'm so used to this going the other way, but the Cardinals did an outstanding job on the glass in this one. North Central held an 18-11 edge on the offensive glass, helping steer a 15-9 advantage in second chance points. It didn't account for all of it, but it was a big contributor.
• SMC: Outscored NCC off turnovers 16-14. This was a big thing for me, especially early, as the Cardinals for stretches in the first half were a little careless with the ball. There were two unforced turnovers in the backcourt by North Central, and while I don't remember if the Belles scored directly off either, they didn't help. It was part of why Saint Mary's got out to the lead in the second quarter.

Final Thoughts
For a first game, you expect some rust and some kinks to be worked out, and that was definitely the case. I'm also not terribly surprised that the Cardinals had an offensive cold spell, but I'm glad it happened when it did and not late in the game. North Central played really good defense in this one, and did enough on offense, especially late in the game, to seal this one out and open the campaign with a win.

It was also great to get back to having a game with fans in the building, and they definitely helped bring some energy in this one. Nature is healing.

The Cardinals will hit the road this weekend to Southwest Michigan to play in Hope College's Tip Off Tournament. They'll get Mount Union in the opener on Friday, then will play either Edgewood or the host Flying Dutch on Saturday.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

While I'm back at Merner Fieldhouse tonight straining my vocal cords some more, MACtion will be back in full swing, so it's time to take a look at the upcoming slate of college football action.

I did have a revision that I needed to make to last week's rankings, not knowing what was going on. I missed that the Wake Forest-North Carolina game was technically being considered a non-conference tilt. As such, the Week 10 numbers have been updated giving Wake and UNC both some additional NCSS points. That updated number will be reflected in this week's set of rankings.

So without further ado, let's get to it!

2021-22 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

"Soon, the echoes of #THREEEEEEEEE will return to downtown Naperville."

And by soon, I mean... Tuesday, November 9th.

It's been a crazy year and a half-plus, transitioning to a world of working from home on the regular, going sportsless for months at a time, and even when we first came back, often having those without crowds. But we're starting to get back to normal, and I'm looking forward to it as the NCAA Division III hoops season is officially underway around the country. And as I prepare to begin my 11th season as the resident idiot on the microphone at Merner Fieldhouse, I figure it's time to take a look at the upcoming campaign. Since the women's team tips first, we'll start with them.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

The football gods were offered chaos this past week, which means there's a lot to look into now.

I still haven't decided if I'm going to do mock brackets or not, since it's tough with no clearly determined conference champion to really get a clear bracket picture, but I may try. Given the amount of content coming though, that may not be until next week's results are in, though I am trying to track computer rankings as well, which are part of the selection and seeding process.

So without further ado, let's look at the results from last week and see where the conferences stand with their rankings.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

The coalition is back as we approach the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season!

I'm still not totally sure if it's hit me yet that everyone is playing 17 games this season; maybe it's because I think the change was dumb, but the almighty dollar continues to rule the NFL. Meanwhile, ruling the group still continues to be Adam, though his lead is narrowing. After using his first mulligan on Sunday night, that was the deciding game that gave the narrow edge for the week as I took four of seven disputed games. Adam remains in the lead, but it's down to just two games as Geoffrey had a monster Week 8 to get within striking distance.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's early success in hero picks has regressed back to the mean a little bit, though among more split picks he's been really good, which is how he's still out in front. I'm hanging on despite a rough hero start.

This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Happy MACtion month.

I'm making sure I get this done earlier than I have a couple times earlier this season where the NCSS numbers aren't getting updated until way late in the week. But with more Tuesday and Wednesday night games (thanks MAC and ESPN), I'm trying to make sure I'm all caught up here.

Most of the games still from here on out will continue to be in-conference, but given the presence of seven independent teams, plus a rivalry week coming up sooner than we think, these numbers will continue to change.

So without further ado, let's see what's coming up!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

Nine weeks are in the books, and we only have about a month left to go before the Death to the BCS Playoffs begin.

At this point we're starting to get a pretty clear separation, and it's going to be getting harder and harder to pick at large teams. But we'll worry about that as we get closer.

For now, let's take a look at how the results from Week 9 impact the Playoff Point numbers.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

The coalition is back at it as we near the halfway point of this NFL season!

After earning a narrow split victory two weeks ago, that gain is wiped away as Adam took two of three this past week to push his lead back to six. I'm in the thick of the rest of the race thankfully. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. 

As we look ahead to Week 8, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 15. Let's get to it!

Editor note: Prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game, Adam used the first of his mulligans to change his pick from Dallas -2.5 to Minnesota +2.5, making the seventh dispute of the week. Column was updated Monday 11/1 to reflect this change.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

With eight weeks in the books, let's turn our attention to Week 9.

Pretty much everyone has played at least seven games to this point, and several teams are up to eight or even nine. By and large non-conference play is done, but we're here to chart how this is going still.

There's still one more massive shift yet coming in the final week of the regular season, but this week it didn't look like there was a ton. Let's take a look.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 8

Nearing the end of October, we're starting to get into the nitty gritty of things a little bit. There's still a lot of time left for teams to try to make runs to the Death to the BCS Playoffs, but that time will run out quick.

There's been a fair amount of chaos still, and it's continued throughout much of the year even into this week. I don't think there's much of a change in how the conferences are ranked, since conference play dilutes most of this.

But without further ado, let's take a look at where we're at.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 7

The coalition returns to action as we're back with yet another week of picking NFL games against the spread!

I'd call it history, but I don't think it's the first time I've pulled it off: I took two of three disputed games from Adam last week to narrow the gap ever so slightly, but what's impressive is how I did it: I ended up sweeping the entire non-primetime slate, losing all three night games that took place. Given the circumstances though, I'll take it.

That performance moved me out of last place for the group proper, though Adam maintains a three game lead among the coalition, with me just a game out of second place. Baby steps! You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 13. Let's get back to it!

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 8

I'm trying to move on quickly as it's time to get a look in at the upcoming schedule for Week 8!

I'm sure we're going to have more byes this week as things start to even out a little bit, but since we're now well into the thick of the conference race, there will be minimal changes in conference scores here.

So below, let's take a look at the games that will change any numbers among the conference for this coming week.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 7

Seven weeks are in the books, we're down to just 11 unbeaten teams in the FCS, and the playoff picture is starting to sort itself into place.

I don't think I'm quite ready to start building out mock brackets quite yet, but I'm still going to be charting playoff points over the next several weeks as more data points means a better picture at who the best teams are and who is deserving of advancing.

So without further ado, here are the numbers through seven weeks.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 6

The coalition is back at it now that we're into the second quarter of the season, and while I had a better week... it didn't amount to much.

Last week Adam took four of seven disputed games, including the rubber match on Monday night, to increase his column lead to six, and he has a two game lead among the whole group. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here. The main difference to date? I've sucked at hero picks, while Adam has been really good, even with the high volume of them last week.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 7

We're back at it again as we get ready for Week 7. Especially considering Tuesday Night Football is back on the docket... this is kind of important to make sure we're on schedule.

I noticed a bunch of byes this week, which we were definitely due since a majority of the country has played every week to this point. I'm sure we'll see a fair amount more over the next few as we start to get towards the end of the regular season.

So since we're back on schedule, I'm only looking at the games for Week 7 this time around. Let's get to it!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 6

Chaos reigned a little bit on Saturday, which means crunching the numbers here today will be fun.

The number of undefeated teams is shrinking, which means before too long I'll be able to start building out mock playoff brackets before the real thing comes out in December. I'm tentatively thinking of doing a podcast for the field reveal; we'll see how that goes though.

For now, let's look at how the Week 6 results impact the numbers.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

We're approaching the quarter pole of the NFL season and... oh. Oh no.

In our biggest disputed week of the season so far, Adam took five of seven games and now find myself... woefully behind. Despite the excellent week for one Mr. Quinn, he is not in first place at this point. That honor belong to Jim, who has a one game lead on Adam among the group, thanks in large part to his dominance in hero picks. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

I came really close to pulling an Adam and doing Opposite Week, and I was also tempted to try and do this podcast style just to try and change things up. For now, I'll hold off on that as Adam and I once again disagree on seven games out of 16.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 6

After missing a week, let's get back on track here.

Fortunately we didn't miss a ton last week as conference play began in full force, but there's still updates that need to be made. So this week, I'm going to look back at the numbers from Week 5, as well as from Week 6.

Ultimately, I don't think we're going to see a ton of changes from here on out, except maybe a bit in the SEC and ACC since there's some cross-conference rivalry games in here. Let's get to it.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 5

I missed the NCSS post this past week in what was a pretty chaotic week of work, but those numbers are updated on the sheet following Week 5's action. We'll follow up with a Week 6 post later. For now, let's look at a fun Week 5 of collegiate action.

One thing I realized I forgot last week was to update loss totals for FCS teams that were victorious. Those numbers are updated now as well.

So without further ado, let's go to the numbers.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 4

The coalition is back at it for a fourth week of picking NFL games!

I was a little worried early in the day on Sunday, as I fell behind early, but rallied back late, to split the four games I had disputed with Adam. Adam retains a two game lead on me in the column, and a one game lead on Jim and Joe among the entire group.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. This week, Adam and I disagree on a season high seven games out of 16.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 4

Through four weeks of the season, we're starting to get the slightest bit of separation around the country in college football. But with 26 teams still unbeaten at this stage, there's still a long way to go before we can narrow the country down to a field of 16 for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

So while we work on narrowing that down, let's look at the past weekend's results and how that has the conferences stacking up through four weeks of action.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition returns for its third week of the year picking NFL games against the spread!

If the pattern of even/odd years is holding true, this past week was not a good omen, as Adam took four of six disputed games, the difference being a couple successful hero picks, to take a two game lead. He and Joe are tied among the group at large, while I'm in a three way tie two games back of them.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. This week, Adam and I disagree on just four games out of 16.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 4

We're about a month into the season, as we move into Week 4 of the campaign and we take a look at the upcoming non-conference slate. 

More and more teams are starting to get into conference play, but we're not quite there yet, so this week and possibly next we're still going to be going a little more in depth about schedules for the week. Obviously, with the seven independent schools, there will still be updates to this on a weekly basis, but eventually the numbers will start to level off here.

So without further ado, here's the numbers for Week 4.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 3

With Week 3 of the college slate in the books, let's take a look back at what happened.

Now for me, the most important game of the weekend occurred in Wheaton, Illinois, where the Little Brass Bell came home where it belongs. No other result really mattered from the weekend, though I know that's not why you're here.

The FBS continued its season over the weekend, and with more results we're going to start seeing some separation from the pack. I'll go over some more team-specific rankings later, but here are how the conferences stack up with three weeks' worth of data.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

It was a bit of a rough start, but the coalition is back for a second week of picking NFL games against the spread!

No one really separated themselves and we're all pretty bunched up through 16 games. For the column's part, Adam and I split our four disputed games last week as we finished .500 through the first slate. Jim matched our total, with Joe and Geoffrey sitting just one game back. In the words of Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."

You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here. It was a hero-heavy week, as nine of the 16 games were hero picks, five of which were successful. Let's see if that will become a trend.

So without further ado, let's get to Week 2. This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

With two weeks' worth of games in the books and on the sheet, let's look ahead now to Week 3.

There's still a lot of data left to gather given the fact that there's still several weeks of season left to play out, but we're starting to near the end of the bulk of non-conference play. There will still be big jumps for much of the country up to this point.

So as we look at Week 3, we'll add onto the score for Week 2 and compare to where we were just a few days ago.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 2

Now that most teams have a couple games under their belts, let's get a look at how things have been going.

There's been a ton of chaos through two weeks, as multiple FCS teams have picked up wins, and some highly ranked teams have already dropped games. This may be the time to do it since there's time to recover, but losing a non-conference game isn't necessarily a death knell, with conference titles still entirely up for grabs across the country.

So for this weekly feature, I'm going to look at every conference (and for this post, I include the seven independent teams as their own conference, for what it's worth). I'll note the average of wins, First Degree Playoff Points, Second Degree Playoff Points, and Adjusted Playoff Points.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

I'm running way behind this week between the holiday, a heavy work week, and making sure this year's Pigskin Pick 'Em contest got off the ground. But we're catching up, so let's get back to the college gridiron!

Week 1 is always a fun one because of the massive non-conference games that help kick the season off. And because for almost the entire division this was the first game of the season, I'm skipping the Week 1 Playoff Points post. I'll look into that early next week when the Week 2 games are in the books.

So now that I have a baseline though with a week's worth of games, I'll have a comparison point. Each conference will list what their average score for the week was, followed by their cumulative score for the season to date. I'll also include where that league ranked last week. This is being written from the perspective of the games being upcoming even though it's Sunday night and everything is complete.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

Nature is healing.

The NFL season is upon us, and with it, the tenth season of one of my favorite features returns as the coalition is back to once again pick NFL games against the spread!

Adam Quinn is once again returning as the featured weekly guest and, if the pattern that we've taken over the last several years holds, he will resume his odd year magic and win the column title.

The rest of the coalition is back aboard this year as well. Our friend/my brother-in-law Joe returns, his uncle and our friend Jim is back as well, and good friend of the COAS franchise and defending group champion Geoffrey Clark.

So for those of you unfamiliar with this feature, we are in a group playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. ESPN sets lines for games the Tuesday prior to kickoff (or in the case of Week 1, way way in advance). We pick the games, Adam and I come on here (or do a podcast) and make our picks, explaining the rationale (or lack thereof) behind them. One point is awarded per win. We'll keep track of how we pick in relation to each other here.

I did add one new wrinkle to the contest this year. In the past, we've been locked into picks once the column/podcast goes live, even if, say, an injury or something occurs after the fact that would change our pick. To avoid this, Adam and I will each get four mulligans to use at any point this season if we decide we want to change our picks after they go live on here but before the game kicks off and ESPN locks it. Posts will be updated if these mulligans get used.

And so without further ado, let's get to this year's contest! To start us off, Adam and I disagree on four games out of the opening 16.