2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

The undefeated team count remains at five after ten weeks, but it doesn't make building the Death to the BCS Playoffs bracket any less complicated.

I'm doing a week by week mock of the tournament following every week, beating out the College Football Playoff committee by several weeks, in a series of practice exercises for the real thing following the end of the regular season.

The methodology behind this is pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs are a 16 team playoff field designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan where all conference champions get an automatic berth to the playoffs, and the rest of the field is filled in with at large teams. While their format had a committee selecting the field, I form a committee of one, albeit a semieducated one who tries to compile a number of metrics to help make an educated decision.

Using Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings from Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), I will seed the field from 1-16. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeds, and the championship game is played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Let's see what the latest mock road to Southern California maps out as.

1. Alabama (9-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 49, PP2: 20.78, aPP: 49, SAG: 1, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 2. (LW: 1)
2. Clemson (9-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 45, PP2: 18.00, aPP: 45, SAG: 4, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 3. (LW: 2)
3. Michigan (9-0, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 42, PP2: 15.78, aPP: 42, SAG: 2, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1. (LW: 3)
4. Ohio State (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 40, PP2: 17.13, aPP: 38, SAG: 3, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 4. (LW: 5)
5. Washington (9-0, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 31, PP2: 10.56, aPP: 31, SAG: 5, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 5. (LW: 4)
6. Louisville (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 29, PP2: 10.13, aPP: 29, SAG: 6, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 6. (LW: 7)
7. Western Michigan (9-0, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 33, PP2: 10.00, aPP: 33, SAG: 19, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 7. (LW: 8)
8. Auburn (7-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 30, PP2: 15.00, aPP: 28, SAG: 7, ROTH: 8, AMSTS: 8.(LW: 9)
9. Wisconsin (7-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 30, PP2: 13.00, aPP: 29, SAG: 9, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 9.(LW: 10)
10. Texas A&M (7-2, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 29, PP2: 17.43, aPP: 24, SAG: 10, ROTH: 9, AMSTS: 10. (LW: 6)
11. Nebraska (7-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 26, PP2: 10.86, aPP: 23, SAG: 29, ROTH: 16, AMSTS: 15. (LW: 11)
12. Oklahoma (7-2, Big XII "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 24, PP2: 9.00, aPP: 21, SAG: 11, ROTH: 26, AMSTS: 19. (LW: 12)
13. Wyoming (7-2, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 28, PP2: 11.14, aPP: 22, SAG: 75, ROTH: 41, AMSTS: 16.(LW: 14)
14. Temple (7-3, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 27, PP2: 10.57, aPP: 18, SAG: 43, ROTH: 45, AMSTS: 37.(LW: 15)
15. Appalachian State (7-2, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 8, PP1: 27, PP2: 9.14, aPP: 20, SAG: 61, ROTH: 46, AMSTS: 36. (LW: NR)
16. Louisiana Tech (7-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 20, PP2: 7.00, aPP: 8, SAG: 63, ROTH: 74, AMSTS: 46.(LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: Troy (14)

When I was looking to fill the field, I actually had a total of 25 teams I was looking at, and I've only swapped out one team. I've kept Troy as the Sun Belt "Champion" for the last couple weeks, but Appalachian State has a better Sun Belt record, so they take over the league title slot until the two teams play on Saturday.

Photo by Vasha Hunt (al.com)

The top of the bracket needs little change. Alabama remains the #1 team in the nation almost undisputed; a couple computer rankings favor Michigan over the Tide, but I'd argue a 10-0 win at LSU means more than a blowout of either Syracuse or Maryland is enough to turn the tables. Michigan has the argument based on the computers to leapfrog Clemson for the other guaranteed third home game, but Clemson has the better resume with wins over two playoff teams plus a third that only got knocked out this week on a technicality while the Wolverines only have one win over a playoff team. That means Michigan will have to settle for only two home games, but they get joined in that category by an at large team. Ohio State leapfrogs Washington with a huge win over Nebraska backed up by a lead in every category.

Photographer uncredited (photo from HuskieNewEra.com)

This next bunch saw a lot more movement. Washington drops into the #5 spot, but can't really fall any farther thanks to their undefeated status. That, combined with better across-the-board numbers gives them the edge over Louisville, who still moves up a spot from where they were last week. Another team on the way up is Western Michigan, who while still undefeated should be guaranteed a first round home game, gets a slightly better situation in the #7 spot. Also moving up is Auburn, who has the better win over LSU to edge out Wisconsin for home field advantage in the 8-9 home game.

Photo by Reese Strickland (USA TODAY Sports)

The Badgers settle into that #9 seed, also leapfrogging Texas A&M. The Aggies are still plenty good enough to be in the conversation here, though one could argue they deserve to be seeded higher than Auburn thanks to their head to head win. But the Tigers' other loss is to Clemson, while A&M just got beat by Mississippi State. Likewise here, Wisconsin's two losses are to Michigan and Ohio State, which beats out losses to Alabama and Mississippi State. Nebraska, despite the loss to Ohio State, hangs onto the sixth and final at large berth and has the better numbers to beat out Oklahoma for the #11 seed. The Sooners are lower on the Playoff Point totem pole than many of the other conference champions, but hold better computer rankings and their two losses are more forgivable than fellow two loss teams Appalachian State and Wyoming.

Photographer uncredited (photo from Wyoming Football Twitter)

Speaking of the Cowboys, they jump a spot this week with Troy out, boasting one of the higher Playoff Point totals in the nation and, Sagarin ranking aside, are pretty well favored by the computers. Temple goes up a spot as well, as they have slight edges in every category over Appalachian State, our newcomer. That of course leaves our Conference USA champ in Louisiana Tech bringing up the rear thanks to holding the worst numbers of anyone in the field, as well as Conference USA being the worst conference in the country this season.

Photo by Joe Jaszewski (Idaho Statesman)

I looked at a host of 7-2 teams to grab that sixth and final at large berth from Nebraska, as well as San Diego State and Boise State. The Aztecs don't have the best Playoff Points numbers, so they fell out reasonably quickly, as did most of the 7-2 teams. My first team out was Boise State, who lost to Wyoming while Nebraska beat them. The common opponent tiebreaker there was obvious. Meanwhile, I also gave strong consideration to Colorado and Washington State, though the Cougars have the problem of a loss to FCS Eastern Washington on their resume, even though Eastern Washington is a powerhouse in the FCS.

I want to make sure I'm clear, too, about one thing if you're new to Confessions of a Sportscaster. Despite their 7-2 record and strong showing across all metrics, Penn State is banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs due to their placing priorities on protecting their football program's image over protecting the innocence of children, and this ban is permanent. Baylor is facing the exact same ban thanks to their sexual abuse scandal, though they don't have the numbers to threaten making the Death to the BCS Playoffs were they even eligible. The only other way to be disqualified is to play multiple FCS teams in the same season, and this year the only team to do so thus far (Kent State) is not in a position to make the postseason.

All in all, not a terribly difficult mock bracket to build. I'll have another one live next week following the results of Week 11.