2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

The good news is that I had my best week of the season to date.

The bad news is that I'm still in last place.

We're onto another week of NFL picks against the spread. Whether it was random variance or Adam happened to be distracted by working in Detroit or wherever, I took three of our four disputed games from last week. It's got me back within one game of him while my dad remains in first place.

Things get a little complicated beginning this week as the bye weeks begin, so there will be fewer than 16 games for the next couple months. It'll make the math a little more complicated, but hopefully not too bad.

If you want to see a breakdown of everyone's picks based on consensus or lack thereof, you can view this breakdown spreadsheet. For this week, groupthink prevails again as Adam and I disagree on only three games out of the 15 being played. Let's get to the picks.

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

Football season is in full swing, but the NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions has been chugging along as we near the end of this year's action.

I took the last 65 NBA champions as well as all nine ABA champions and put them in a tournament to find the best of all time. We're down to four now. One of these teams made it this far last year, two got as far as the quarterfinals, and the other made the Round of 16. Our defending champion is gone, as are both of their opponents in prior championship rounds. Our quest to crown a new champion continues today.

So the two series I'm simulating out today are, like the prior series, best of seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes to the higher seeded team based on Group Play finish, and in the event of a tie, Group Play record is our tiebreaking factor. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up a championship matchup!

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 5

I'm working on trying to get some charts going for my college football rankings this year. There's just not much to show yet; I figured out how to get the First Degree Playoff Points to work fairly easily, but Second Degree Points and Adjusted Playoff Points are a little trickier.

I could conceivably do a similar thing for the NCSS rankings too, but the negative scores would make things tricky. I'll keep thinking about it, but in the meantime, I need to continue analyzing the schedule.

If you need a refresher on how the NCSS rankings work, you can refer back to my season introduction post. Let's get an update. Below are the updated rankings for each conference. Since we're getting into the meat of the conference schedules, I will just mention the games that impact the NCSS scores one way or the other.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 4

We're about a month through the college football season now, which is kind of crazy. Most teams have played four games now, with a few having only played three due to byes some time in the first four weeks. With this though, we're starting to see a little separation again in the numbers.

Last week's numbers will probably be similar, at least in terms of rankings, but the point totals are only going to go up as more games get played.

If you want a look at how these scores are calculated, you can view my season preview post. Let's get a look at the data.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

We're two weeks into the NFL season, and... suffice it to say I'm not off to a rousing start.

There's some separation at the top now as my dad had a phenomenal week, Logan continues basically being a coin flip, and Grant, who led after Week 1 had a down follow up effort. Meanwhile on COAS itself, Adam took five of our seven disputed games this past week to take a three game lead on me.

And so I sit alone in the basement of the COAS standings, but this early, still within striking distance of the lead, so hopefully I can start to turn things around this week. In the meantime, if you want to see a breakdown of picks by everyone, I've compiled the first two weeks' worth here.

Adam is out of town for work this week, but was still able to get me his Week 3 picks in time. I can only hope that I can win a majority of the four disputed games thanks to Adam's being distracted by travel.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 4

We're onto Week 4 of the college football season already. Conference play is starting to pick up a little bit, but we're still a week or two away from the express posts about NCSS rankings.

In the meantime, non-conference games are still a bulk of the docket for this week, so I'm following up on the first three weeks of games with a continued look at how well teams are scheduling their non-conference games.

In the event you need a refresher on how the scoring works for this, you can refer back to my season introductory post. Let's take a look at the updated NCSS rankings.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 3

Here's where analyzing results in college football starts to get fun.

We have three weeks of data to work with now, and as teams start to play more of their schedules, we can know a little better just how good a team is. Last week's numbers were pretty basic, but that's how it always is when you only have two games off of which to base your analysis. Three isn't a lot better, but it will allow us to start to see a difference between teams form.

You can view that prior post or the season preview post to get an idea of how Playoff Points are calculated. Below you will see a ranking of each conference as well as the four independent teams grouped together to see how they're doing.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

To quote a text from my dad on Monday, "You and Adam should be embarassed."

I kind of am after a subpar Week 1 on both of our parts. The good news is that we split our four disputed games to keep us even. The bad news is that we are far and away in last place after Week 1. Fortunately, in the words of Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."
So as we look ahead to Week 2, I'm taking Adam's initiative from late last season and breaking down our group's picks by how many of us are picking these games. As a group, we went 3 of 4 on hero picks, though I can't take any credit for that because I didn't go hero on any of mine. If you want to see the full breakdown, you can view the spreadsheet here. Either I or Adam will try to keep this as up to date as possible as the season goes along.

As for Week 2, there's a little more disparity than last week as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of the 16. Let's see if I can grab a lead and bounce back.

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Quarterfinals

We take a break from a multitude of football posts to bring you some more basketball action.

74 teams entered this gauntlet earlier this year, and that field has been narrowed down to eight. It's a mix of new and old, as three of last year's quarterfinalists have matched last year's performance by making it this far. In terms of longer term success in prior years, we have two semifinalists from the 2013 tournament and one from last year, but our two-time defending champion is gone, as are their two opponents from the championship rounds.

Thus, a new champion must be crowned. To find that out, we have a pair of series that will result in some cannibalization in a sense as a franchise has two representatives facing each other. All four series though are great, and considering the Round of 16 featured no sweeps and seven of eight series going six games or more, we should be in for a treat.

This round is once again a best-of-seven series played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage is a little trickier to determine from here on out, though the primary factor remains seeding based on group play. If the competitors are seeded the same, the tie is first broken by Group Play record, and if there is still a tie, Group Play point differential will break that. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started!

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

It's kind of crazy that we're already onto Week 3 of the college football season, but here we are. Last week offered some more drama than I had originally expected, given the scores for the week, but there were plenty of points to be had, especially for the Group of Five schools who went on the road to face big time opposition.

Since it's still September, we're still in the thick of non-conference play, so there are plenty more points to be had over the course of the week. Points will be awarded based on the spelled out criteria from the season intro post and added to the first two weeks' scores.

So the scores below will show first the conference's average score for the week, then their cumulative average for the season, and their ranking from last week. I'll also do a brief explanation of how the average score is what it is.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 2

Every Monday (or Tuesday in the event of a holiday weekend such as Columbus Day) I will be running this weekly feature. I touched on this topic back in my season preview post, but every week I am running through the results of every FBS-level college football game and crunching the numbers.

I do want to make note though that between when I wrote that and now, I did decide I wanted to add in another metric. Playoff Points don't measure losses, and that can be a problem. As such, I have created an Adjusted Playoff Points ranking, abbreviated "aPP." Similar to First Degree Playoff Points, I award teams points for the number of wins by teams they've beaten. In the adjusted version, those points remain, but I then subtract points for each loss by teams that have beaten a particular team. So for example, a 10-2 team is awarded points for each win by the ten teams they beat. Then I take the combined losses of the two teams they lost to, and subtract that from the win total. That final score is the Adjusted Playoff Points. Note that this means a score can be negative. I also want to clarify how FCS games work. Wins over FCS teams will still mean no points, but the loss penalty is doubled.

I will cover conference averages of these as well and include that rankings with PP1 and PP2. Adjusted Playoff Points will also be taken into account for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

So below, I will go by conference and rank their averages of each of these metrics, including wins. The four independent schools will be combined into their own conference for this purpose as well. Let's get to it!

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

The longest running series on Confessions of a Sportscaster returns for its fifth season!

I decided in my first full fall of writing for COAS that I wanted to do a weekly series picking NFL games against the spread. It's now Year Five, and I couldn't be more thrilled to pick this series up again.

Of course, I never like to do this alone, so to make a competition out of it I have invited Adam Quinn, a buddy of mine, to join me in this weekly escapade. He and I will post our picks here weekly with a short rationale. Sometimes these will be grounded in reality. Other times, we pick based on things like cheerleaders, polar opposites to gut reactions, or out of disgust for bee uniforms.

Whatever Adam did last year, it worked. He is our defending champion, and will be going up against not only me, but a few invited guests. My dad, who also beat me last year, returns for the second straight year, and I've also recruited my cousin Grant into the fold. My brother Logan, who is a senior at Aurora Central Catholic, will round out our group of five. I will have our standings posted at the bottom every week.

So as we kick off the season, Adam and I disagree on only four of the 16 games. Without any further ado, let's get to it! Good luck to my fellow pickers!

2016 AFC West Preview

After a week of going around the league, we've finally come to the end. The NFL season officially kicks off tomorrow as we seek to crown a new Super Bowl champion.

As has been my tradition, I've alternated conferences and worked my way around the country until I close with the division that houses the defending champion. That means I close with the AFC West and the defending champion Broncos.

So, one final time, if you're looking for something else to do this football season in addition to rooting for your team and your fantasy players, you can join my and Adam Quinn's ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. We will have our Week 1 picks available for you tomorrow.

So with that out of the way, let's finish this off.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

We're back with another look at the landscape of college football!

We're a week in, and some chaos has already happened as a result of some overall solid scheduling around the country. Week 2 will probably see a drop off in this to some degree, but there are still some good matchups on the docket.

So in each of the following weeks I will build on what I did earlier in the season. Today, that means taking the Week 1 rankings and adding to them based on the schedule. Each team will once again get a score between -1 and 3 based on the established criteria. Teams with a zero are either playing in conference or have a bye. The latter will be represented in purple.

So without further ado, here's our updated scores for Week 2. In parentheses are the average score for the week, then the cumulative season score, and finally, where each conference was ranked last week.

2016 NFC West Preview

We've finally worked our way west in my series of NFL previews as we're now just two days away from the official start of the NFL season.

After years of rumblings, the NFL has also finally returned to Los Angeles, so I've had to alter one of my labels for this post. Sorry, St. Louis football fans. I hate a lot of the economics of the sport that forced the Rams out. They and the rest of the NFC West get their preview on today.

You still have a couple days to get in on the spread picking action. Adam Quinn returns to defend his crown in our annual ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, which you can join at the link provided. We weren't very good last year... or the year before... so you have a decent shot at beating us.

Without further ado, let's hit up the NFC West.

2016 AFC South Preview

Happy Labor Day! I don't take a ton of holidays when it comes to previews and posts like this, just because sports continue on on holidays. The NFL season is also just three days away. Good thing I only have three more division previews to get to.

I've almost made my way around the country to this point, with tomorrow being the final region of the country I have to focus on. Today, meanwhile, I'm moving on to the AFC South.

As another reminder with just three days left, you still have time to get in on the action of picking NFL games against the spread. Adam Quinn and I return our weekly feature of picking games on here, and Adam seeks to defend his 2015 title. You can join us in this endeavor at our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Let's get to the predictions.

2016 NFC South Preview

We're onto the second half of our NFL predictions for the upcoming season. I'm on track to finish these up by Wednesday, giving me a day to spare and do Week 1 picks.

I'm going around in a clockwise circle of sorts, going division by division with my picks and alternating conferences daily. Today, we're onto the South divisions, and we start again with the NFC.

Before I preview this division, one more time I want to make a shameless plug for the weekly picks. I will be joined again this year by Adam Quinn, who beat me handily last season and is returning to defend his crown. If you want to try to beat us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Without further ado, here's our preview.

2016 AFC East Preview

Today will mark the halfway point as I work my way around the country previewing the upcoming NFL season.

As a general rule, I tend to get a lot of these picks completely wrong. It's the nature of the predictions business. Some picks are obvious, but every year there's always at least one or two teams that surprise in one direction or the other.

Before I get to the AFC, I want to do another shameless plug for NFL picks. Adam Quinn will be defending his title against me, and we will continue our weekly picks post for the third straight year and my fifth doing at least some on this forum. If you want to pick against us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Here's a look at our next NFL preview.

2016 NFC East Preview

We're onto Day 3 of our NFL previews as I work to get all 32 NFL teams pegged out for the upcoming season.

I'm done in the North divisions and am working my way clockwise around the country alternating conferences to get to eight. Today, I'm onto the NFC East.

Before I do that, once again this season I'm picking NFL games against the spread. I will be joined by defending champion Adam Quinn for our third year of weekly posts with our picks. If you want to try and beat us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em Group.

Let's take a look at the previews.

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 16 Part 2

Way back in April, I set up a large tournament with 74 NBA and ABA teams. After a lengthy preranking tournament with the ABA teams and knocking a couple fringe NBA teams out, we had 72 teams spend 36 days narrowing themselves down to 32. The Consolation Bracket is complete, and our Championship field is down to 12 as I finish up the Round of 16.

Yesterday I ran with four series of this round, but you'll note that I haven't set up any matchups for the quarterfinals. Those matchups will be set today.

As has been the case throughout the Elimination Stage, these four series are best of seven played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes to the higher seeded team based on placing in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

2016 AFC North Preview

Welcome to September! We are officially a week away from the start of football season, and as such, I have more work to get to.

I'm going division by division predicting records for all 32 NFL teams, and I'm one division in. Today, I swap conferences and go to the AFC North.

With a week to go, you still have time if you want to join in on an NFL contest as Adam Quinn and I pick NFL game against the spread. If you think you can beat us, which isn't super difficult given how the last two years have gone, you can join our ESPN group here.

Let's get to the preview.