Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (12/30/13)

Final Score
NCC 108, Aurora 80

Game Summary
This game felt closer than it should have been in the early going. The Cardinals (7-4) needed a couple minutes to get going, but led 11-3 just over four minutes in and 16-5 about five and a half minutes in. The lead stayed around that range for several minutes but the Spartans (4-7) never wavered, narrowing the gap to two points when the halftime buzzer sounded. Order was quickly restored in the second half though as the Cardinals went on a 15-2 run to open up a 60-45 edge two and a half minutes into the frame. Still, the Spartans didn't go away, keeping within striking distance and even got within six at 77-71 with less than 10 mintues to go. From there, the Cardinals decided they'd had enough shenanigans and pulled away for a comfortable win.

Key Stats

• Miranda Grizaffi (NCC): 5-12 FG (5-12 3PT), 2-2 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. I could have gone in a few directions for top NCC player yesterday. I decided on Miranda based on this being kind of her breakout game. She shot well last night and led her team in scoring. She was primarily aided by Larynn Shumaker (16 points on 5-8 shooting plus 6-6 on freebies) and Lauren Hernandez (12 points on 4-11 shooting).
• Anna Roszkowski (AUR): 9-17 FG, 10-14 FT; 28 pts, 20 reb (10 ofr), 2 ast, 1 blk. After the game when the Sports Information guys and a local reporter were looking at the stat sheet, somebody mentioned that this looked like a Karl Malone line. Holy crap. Roszkowski was lethal in the first half, when she had a 23-12. She was a big part of a minute stretch where Aurora maintained possession based on something like 6 or 7 straight offensive rebounds that might have killed me if it had netted more than her one point on a free throw.
• Shay Jenkins (AUR): 10-24 FG (0-1 3PT), 5-8 FT; 25 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl. Like Roszkowski was in the first half, Jenkins was the key for the Spartans after halftime in keeping the game close. She kept finding ways into the lane to drop home floater after floater. Regarding the rebound numbers: she's 5'4". Let that sink in. In the second half, she shot 8-16 and hit all four of her free throws.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 17-62 (27.4%). Percentage-wise, this is lower than you'd like. But when you end up making 17 three's in a game, you can live with it a little more. The shooting seemed more crisp than it did on Saturday, which helped. I said Saturday that this team lives and dies by the three, and the numbers back it up. In the first half, the Cardinals shot 7-33 from deep (21.7%). In the second, they shot 10-29 (34.5%). If they can sustain that shooting percentage closer to 30 percent, and even a few points higher, this team will be very tough to beat.
• Aurora Turnovers: 39. That also helps matters. There weren't a lot of whistles for traveling, and Aurora didn't throw many passes out of bounds. It showed; 27 of those turnovers came off Cardinal steals. 13 players recorded at least one theft, led by Maryssa Cladis' five. Bobbi Johns and Marion Boeck each added four.

Final Thoughts
I told a number of people in the first half that there was no way we should have let Aurora hang around the way they were. Fortunately the Cardinals caught fire and put the game out of reach at the end. They close out non-conference play with the same mark they had last year at 7-4, with no real surprises. The four teams they've lost to are all good teams, especially Hope. There is an interesting stat that we've seen through 11 games. Look at NCC's schedule and results so far. They are 7-0 when scoring at least 100 points and 0-4 when they fail to hit the century mark. The Cardinals only hit that mark six times last year, so clearly in Year Two of the new system, the offense has figured out a lot of the kinks. They've actually scored just over 100 points per game this season, yet still have a total point differential of -1 on the season.

Millikin and North Park play today to hit the 11-game mark, while Wheaton plays its 10th of the year (they have a date against IIT in late January for some reason). Of all the CCIW squads, only Augustana has a losing record. Wheaton sits at 8-1 coming into today, and preseason favorite Carthage is 9-2. I was surprised to see Illinois Wesleyan is only 6-5, but they've played a ton of tough competition, with four of their five losses coming to teams in or just outside the last Top 25 poll. As usual, the CCIW is going to be a gauntlet. The Cardinals snuck into the tournament last year with a 6-8 mark in conference. I don't think it's out of the question to see the Cardinals hit .500 in conference play this year and make the tournament again, but teams will be gunning for them this year.

Talking to Michelle Roof before the game yesterday, she was thrilled that I had been back after missing a couple games and mentioned that the energy and the aura of the team just seems different at home when I'm there. I'm sure a lot of it is being in a familiar environment without having to travel and knowing the rims and such. I told her that I'm an intangible, but I want to try and give them as much of a home court advantage as I can, and if my work energizes this team, I'm happy to help. But they deserve the credit. I'm just a guy who happens to like yelling "THREEEEEEEEEE!" a lot.

CCIW play begins Saturday, and the Cardinals open at home against North Park. This is a big one for no other reason than how last year's tilt at Merner ended. Hopefully these girls can get some revenge for last year and start CCIW play on the right foot.

COAS Hands Out 2013 NFL Awards

Photo from fanpop.com.

It is said that all good things must come to an end. That means that the 2013 NFL regular season had to. There was a lot of drama all the way through and plenty of games that decided playoff fates of nearly every team in the NFL. I got to see a thrilling game send my Packers to the playoffs when Aaron Rodgers escaped a sack and found a wide open Randall Cobb for the game winner. A lot of Bears fans (including a couple at work) have been extremely classy today. And then there's the idiots that you find on the Internet who are blaming the refs for what came down to Green Bay executing when it mattered most.

Hopefully I won't be as much of an idiot on the Web. Looking back at predictions, I feel dumb about a few things (picking the Vikings at 9-7, underrating Kansas City, San Diego and Arizona), but I nailed a few teams right on the money, so there's that. Ultimately, I think I only got about half of the playoff teams correct though.

Anyway, like I did last year, I'm going to give my (unofficial) votes for the major NFL awards. It's been pretty accurate so far, but I'm certainly open to other guys winning that I don't give my vote to. Let's get to the results.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Bowl season is in full swing now. 15 games have been played to date. And to think: we could have a system where you still play these exhibition games with teams that had decent or good seasons, and still have a playoff to decide who the best of the best truly is.

I'm onto the second round now of what I feel is the best playoff system that was designed by the authors of the book seen to your left, and it had a little bit of drama in Round 1, but now it gets tougher. The top four seeds all advanced and get a second home game, but can they replicate their early results against tougher competition? Or will we see a couple more upsets stacked onto the pair that we had from the opening round? We're about to find out.

Like last round, the higher seeds do get home field advantage, and I tried to make the weather (taken from weather.com) as accurate to real conditions as possible. Each game will simulated as a best-of-three, but I'm only taking the "clinching" game as the real result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started.

Game Notes: St. Mary's University @ North Central College (12/28/13)

Final Score
St. Mary's (MN) 99, NCC 81

Game Summary
In a game where they never trailed, the St. Mary's Cardinals (6-1) scored on their first possession and never looked back. North Central (6-4) kept it within single digits for a good chunk of the half and even pulled within three at 24-21 with 6:53 left in the frame. Then St. Mary's went on a tear, scoring 12 unanswered in less than two and a half minutes. North Central rallied and made it a 49-38 game at halftime. North Central couldn't really close the gap unfortunately, as St. Mary's pulled away slowly but surely, leading by as many as 23 points. North Central pulled to within 13 a couple times but could get no closer in the final minutes.

Key Stats

• NCC: 36 turnovers. Offensively... it was a nightmarish day for this Cardinal team. I don't know if they were tired or weren't entirely ready for the game, but they struggled. They telegraphed a lot of passes and were a little careless with the ball yesterday. Not one of their best performances this season. 20 of those turnovers came in the first half, so they did improve a bit as the game went on.
• Shelby Auseth (SMU): 12-18 FG (2-3 3PT), 2-3 FT; 28 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl, 2 blk. She killed in basically all facets of the game yesterday. St. Mary's was efficient from deep, and Auseth was a part of it. She also had some good looks at layups throughout the game. She took advantage of North Central's system and had herself an excellent game.
• Uzuri Williams (NCC): 6-10 FG, 1-2 FT; 13 pts, 5 reb (2 ofr), 2 stl, 1 blk. I think this was a breakout game for the junior transfer. She showed some decent moves down in the post, rebounded relatively well, and a few times in the game showed great hands on defense. I felt like she had more than the two steals. She could be a valuable piece moving into conference play next weekend.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 8-31 (25.8%). I think this number might have looked uglier than it actually was. A few threes in the first half were pretty bad shots in that they were contested or really, really long. The Cardinals seemed short on a lot of their looks, even the open ones. It just wasn't their day. If they hit even a couple more of those (or move in a tad closer), this becomes more of a ballgame and we don't see the point disparity we did late. Such is the system: you live by the three, you die by the three.
• SMU Turnovers: 28. Not a bad total, though obviously it's bad when you turn it over more than that. North Central forced them into a few mistakes, but also notched 17 steals as a team. Bobbi Johns was her usual self, leading the team with 4 takeaways. Maryssa Cladis and Uzuri Williams each had 2 to help out.

Final Thoughts
Any post-Christmas hangovers should be gone now, I'd hope. A few players looked to be out of breath as the game went on. I noticed Larynn Shumaker breathing pretty hard coming out of the game at one point (though despite the fatigue, she had an okay game with 14 points on 6-14 shooting). Ultimately though, one of the worst offensive showings of the young season doomed this team. Side note: you know it's sad when you shoot 40% as a team and score 81 points, yet call it "one of the worst". I trust this team though. St. Mary's is no slouch and they played well yesterday. North Central gets a day to reflect and move on before non conference rival Aurora University visits Gregory Arena. They've had some struggles this year, so I'm looking forward to my Cardinals unleashing the press on them.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

Here we are. Week 17. Several weeks of hard work and determination culminate in a lot of do or die games. Eight spots of the 12 are already determined for the playoffs, but a lot of seeds aren't established yet. One thing that is though is a second straight winning record.

Last week's decent performance was enough to push me over the mark to guarantee a .500 record this season. I'll take it. Even if I go 0-16 this week I'll still finish with 132 wins, but I'm aiming for loftier heights. And a playoff berth for my team, but that's another story.

So below, you can see my final batch of NFL picks against the spread for 2013.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

I almost did this wrong. I set a reminder on my phone to go grab weather forecasts for a couple places, but I had them set to go for Saturday the 14th as opposed to Saturday the 21st. Fortunately I caught my mistake and set it up for this weekend.

Part of me loves to process of building the playoffs more than actually running through them, but I think this does a good job of answering questions of who is more likely to be the best team in the nation. Obviously it's not the same as actually playing the games, but it's the best I can do.

If you want to see the playoff bracket as it's set up, you can view it here, or click on the link up at the top of the page. We're playing through the first round today. The simulation rules are pretty simple: higher seeds get home field advantage, and I try to get the weather conditions as accurate as I can for the game (conditions are obtained by weather.com around the predetermined kickoff time). Start times are for the Central time zone, and I try not to screw teams over with start times either too early or too late. I simulate first round games as a best-of-three to get a more accurate result, with the "clinching" game being the official result. Let's play some football.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 16

We're coming down to two weeks left, and I feel pretty good about how I'm picking stuff. This week provided me with one of my best showings ever, since I only missed games that were total upsets. Such is what makes gambling on football... not the smartest proposition.

Fortunately for me, this isn't based on money. Though looking at records, I'd probably have made money were I gambling. Alas, I'm not that crazy, so I'm sticking to picking for pride at this point. I need just 6 correct picks over the next two weeks combined to finish over .500 for the season. I like those odds.

So without further ado, here are my Week 16 picks.

Dreams of a Red "Purple Bowl"

Photo taken from @JeffySOniiiice

I haven't really devoted the attention to my alma mater's football team that I necessarily would have liked this year, but more important things come up. Even so, I paid as much attention as I could yesterday to the biggest football game in North Central's history.

A little over three years ago, I was in the booth at Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium in Naperville for the school's first quarterfinal berth. Their opponent: one of D-III's two titans of this century: Wisconsin-Whitewater. The 2010 Cardinals had a veteran defense led by the national Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker Matt Wenger, and had some good pieces on offense, including a decent freshman quarterback in Spencer Stanek. The Cardinals started that Whitewater game in good fashion, scoring on the opening drive. Ultimately though, three Cardinal turnovers resulted in 13 Warhawk points, and Whitewater won 20-10 en route to a national title.

Driving through downtown Naperville Saturday morning I had a flashback to that day, because the conditions here were pretty similar to what they were like that fateful day, and were a little heavier out in Alliance, Ohio, where the Cardinals were but a win away from making their first ever Stagg Bowl. Their opponent: another purple-clad titan in Mount Union.

The Stagg Bowl has a long and illustrious history as D-III's title game, and moved around a fair amount in its first 20 years before settling in at its current home in Salem, Virginia. It is hallowed ground for the small schools. CCIW rival Augustana had a run of four straight titles in the 80's, but in the past decade or so, two titans have controlled Division III: Mount Union and Wisconsin-Whitewater. The two have combined to win every title since 2005, and during that time, only once has one failed to show up for their date (Whitewater last season, when they missed the playoffs). Every year, teams line up hoping to get a shot at these giants in hopes of being the ones to slay them.

And boy, did North Central do everything it could to eliminate the defending champs. In wintry conditions like there were (see above), the Cardinals still moved the ball pretty effectively. They made mistakes along the way; Stanek threw a pick-6 late in the second quarter to give up a lead. The Cardinals also struggled after scoring touchdowns and left points on the field. A pair of blocked extra points, plus a botched two-point conversion late kept the door open for Mount Union with 1:38 left to come down and take a lead. They only needed 31 seconds. The winning touchdown was a beautiful pass and great execution on the part of the Raiders, if we're talking objectively. But they left just over a minute for North Central to come back.

Photo by Dan Poel of D3photography.com.

The Cardinals had traded punches with a heavyweight all game. They moved downfield with relative ease much of the day. The running game was doing plenty of damage. Peter Sorensen made catch after catch, including the brilliant one depicted above that ESPN apparently completely ignored in its Top 10. I mean, look at that! How he got a foot down on his way out of bounds boggles my mind. They had an opportunity to take down the defending champs with a last minute drive. They got to the 30 of the Raiders with plenty of time and a pair of timeouts left. They just couldn't quite get it done. A 4th down pass was deflected down, and the Raiders were able to walk off their home turf with a trip to the Stagg Bowl.

Through all of that, I'm incredibly proud of my Cardinals. They thought going in that they could win. They almost did. They traded punches for 60 minutes with a team many thought invincible. You take away some of those mistakes, maybe the Cardinals are preparing for a trip to Salem. Maybe Mount Union finds another way to get through. We'll never know. But this Cardinal team took Naperville for a thrill ride that won't soon be forgotten.

Photo from the 2010 Stagg Bowl. No photographer credited.

What can't be understated though is this: the Cardinals had a chance to face the elite. A ten-game regular season slate sets the stage for 32 of the nation's best teams to do battle. It doesn't take away from the regular season; rather it enhances it. The best teams fight to run the table and earn precious home field advantage for a month of games. Including Saturday's semis, 24 of the 30 games went to the home team. The NCAA rewarded teams for regular season success, something big time college football doesn't quite seem to get. If D-III had a BCS style system, would voter fatigue have ended the Mount Union-Whitewater run of title game matchups? Would a Mary Hardin-Baylor or Linfield have made it? Would a North Central team who had only ever made it to the quarterfinals twice and making their first ever semifinal appearance have even gotten a shot? D-III is football how it should be played: the champion is decided on the field. Those of us who may be sick of seeing Whitewater and Mount Union play in Salem have no gripes. Our teams have had repeated chances and can't pull the trigger. North Central had its first shot at Mount Union Saturday and gave the champs their best shot. It wasn't quite enough. If you want them out of the title game, knock them out yourself. Pure football. Simple as that.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

We're coming down to the wire! Three weeks, 48 games remain. Only three playoff spots are locked up, and a lot of races are probably going down to the wire.

Last week was a pretty high week; I got 9 of the possible 16 games right, but Nathaniel caught fire, picking 12 right. I still hold a narrow lead at this stage.

Unfortunately, for the stretch run I decided to go separate. Just my picks will be featured here the next three weeks. You can view them coming up after the jump. Hopefully I can still do well enough on these without a foil.


Thursday Night
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-10.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Obviously Peyton didn't like the "sucks in cold weather" narrative, and neither did Denver. I think San Diego is slightly more competent than Tennessee at this stage, though.

Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Even realizing that Washington is just awful, remember that of Atlanta's 21 points, all came in the first half, 7 came off kind of a fluky pick-6, and another 7 came off of a Green Bay turnover deep in their own territory. There weren't really any lengthy drives aside from the one that opened the game. And Green Bay's defense sucks. Points, please.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Why do I feel like I'm all in on these guys. Maybe I should move down there and take advantage of the apparently super cheap tickets I was talking about with an old friend on Monday. Then again, I'm getting married in less than 200 days and I don't think my wife-to-be wants to move. Probably should hold off.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Lucas: Bears. How, exactly, is Cleveland favored here? I get that their defense is decent and it's Jason Campbell starting as opposed to Brandon Weeden, but have you seen the ridiculousness coming out of Alshon Jeffrey lately? Then again, if the Bears had a competent defense...

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. We all remember what happened the last time Wade Phillips was in charge of a team, right?

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. WHY GRONK NO GET TO GO PLAY IN MIAMI? GRONK WANT PARTY WITH PRETTY LADIES WHILE DOING KEGSTANDS. GRONK NO CARE IF GRONK'S KNEE TORN APART AND IN TREMENDOUS PAIN!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Obviously snow wasn't a problem for Chip Kelly, but put them in a dome? Have fun, Leslie.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants (+6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'm writing off the Giants now. Partially because it's the Seahawks, but mostly because I think, for real, the Giants are done now.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. San Fran reestablished themselves with that big win over Seattle. Facing a weak team this week helps quite a bit.

Sunday, Late Afternoon
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Because we have to delay giving Denver the AFC West as long as possible. Could KC finish 13-3 and be a wild card? It's doable, right?

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-11.5)
Lucas: Jets. I'm sorry, but even with the disparity between these guys, I can't lay that many points. Cam Newton, please don't hurt me.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Lucas: Packers. Look, I'm aware it's stupid too with Rodgers likely not playing. But as bad as Dallas' defense is, is it that unreasonable to think Matt Flynn could pull out another one? Also, Dallas in December. Remember this.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Tennessee gets a slightly weaker opponent, which helps, but I like how Arizona looks overall. Larry Fitzgerald is overjoyed that he has a competent quarterback again!

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+5.5)
Lucas: Saints. With the cold and winter weather that has abounded in the past week or two, Drew Brees put "playing every game indoors" on his Christmas list.

Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Andy Dalton looks pretty good this year, doesn't he? Maybe the Bengals can actually avoid being one-and-done this time.

Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Even though it's in Detroit, the Lions are the Lions. I can't shake the feeling that something is going to happen where Detroit screws themselves over. It's what they do.

Record So Far
111-101 (9-7 last week)

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

Saturday was the BCS' final gasp. As far as drama goes, it went well for the "Cartel", what with the couple upsets and some compelling games. I maintain that having this 16-team playoff would do a lot of favors for the sport in that yesterday, basically every game would have had truer postseason impacts. It would also reduce a lot of the sheer hatred NIU suffered. I saw one person on Facebook who just lambasted them for no reason other than they were the modern day Boise State and dared tread on what elitists consider the sacred turf of the BCS. It's ludicrous.

Ultimately, that's why I started compiling stuff for a playoff system outlined in the book seen here. I'm sick of people talking crap about conferences like the MAC just because they're not the SEC, Pac-12 or what have you. So, with the regular season officially done (unless the Army-Navy game intrigues you to no end) it's time to outline what a truer college football postseason looks like.

A lot of people are arguing for either the 4-team playoff that gets implemented next year, but more people want either a four or eight-team playoff, with even some arguments for 10 or 12-team brackets. I'm arguing 16 because that gives every conference champion the opportunity to play for a national title. At that point you truly have every game really counting for something. To fill out the field, I will take 6 teams that didn't win a conference title but still had great regular seasons. Most years, this will likely mean most, if not all, one-loss teams and two-loss teams will also have a good shot.

The 16 teams will be seeded by a selection committee (read: me) with the help of some number crunching. The main reason for this is the other aspect of this playoff that really makes every game count: for the first three rounds, higher seeds get to host the games. Consider it a reward for a really good season.

Seedings are determined by kind of an organic process. I will look over schedules to try and decide who had some signature wins, how margin of victory looked, how bad their losses were, etc. I will also employ some math to help quantify things. Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) tries to analyze how well a team scheduled its out of conference slate. While it doesn't look at record, it rewards teams for playing major conference opponents and/or on the road and punishes scheduling cupcakes. It's not entirely a fair formula, but it can help a little bit. The more significant one that I created is the Playoff Points (PP) metric, which is basically the combined number of wins of each team a given school has beaten. It's a concept I borrowed from the IHSA. I also use a pair of computer rankings created by current or former people whose formulas were used by the BCS. Current computer guy Jeff Sagarin (SAG) has a "politically correct" version he sends them, but has a better ranking that I use. The late David Rothman (FACT) also created a formula that the BCS stopped using when they decided margin of victory wasn't important (or more so, decided it went against sportsmanship, which is something of a bogus argument). His formula is public domain and I found someone at UCLA who compiles it at the given link.

So without any further long-winded explanation or grandstanding, here's how the 2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs will be arranged.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 14

Only four weeks remain in this NFL season, but there's still plenty of contention for playoff spots. It's still fairly competitive in picking games against the spread though too. Nathaniel and I each got back to at least .500 to keep numbers high, but I'm up to a 9 game lead with those 64 games left to be played. Such is what happens when despite the holiday, you go 11-5. Nathaniel didn't do too bad himself though, sitting at 8-8 on the week. Clearly, anything can happen.

Likewise in the NFL, a lot of playoff spots are still wide open. In the great tradition of December football, I use ESPN's Playoff Machine to mess up the NFL world as best I can. This was the best I could come up with: New England and Indianapolis miss the playoffs, Green Bay wins the NFC North, and the road to the Super Bowl runs through Philadelphia and... Miami?! Click here for the fun details.

Nathaniel has had a busy week, so he was only able to get quick synopses on all the games. This week, we disagree on 5 games out of the 16 on the slate. Let's see how this goes.

2013 FBS Rankings: Week 15

Other than the annual Army-Navy game, this is it for the big time college football regular season. Most teams are done, but a handful are playing their 13th games. Heck, a couple have already played 13 games and it's throwing me off. Either way, by about midnight on Sunday, we will know who won each conference and thus earned an automatic bid to the unfortunately simulated Death to the BCS Playoffs. But for this final post analyzing schedules, I figured I'd unveil my overall rankings. It only seems fair that everyone get to see what the NCSS numbers actually look like for everyone.

Before we get into that though, I was planning on sharing the final conference rankings with updates from this week, but every game on this week's slate is in conference, so there will be no changes. What I did do is for this week, put the Army-Navy game in so that I could go ahead and run the numbers here. Since neither team is in the running for the playoffs, I don't have to worry about the implications of those games. If you want to see what ultimately became the final conference rankings, check last week's post here.

Instead today after the jump, I'll have the full, final NCSS rankings for each FBS team. As a refresher, NCSS ignores record, instead focusing on whether the teams on the non-conference schedule are in a "power conference" or not, with a bonus for playing on the road. Teams are also penalized for facing FCS competition.

Full disclosure: This should be obvious, but independents will have the highest NCSS scores since none of their games are played in conference. The Sun Belt, being an 8-team conference will also have inflated scores while the Big 12 and Pac-12 might have slightly lower scores since they only play three games outside their respective conferences.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 14 Seedings

Happy December! Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving weekend full of family (first and foremost), food and football. And really, the football part (Green Bay getting smoked aside) was amazing.

I didn't watch much football this weekend with a lot going on, but I was thrilled Saturday to see my North Central Cardinals earn a trip back to the quarterfinals of the D-III playoffs for the first time since 2010. And the Death to the BCS Playoffs get quite a shakeup as well. I didn't watch much of the big-time action this weekend, but I did see the end of the Iron Bowl. Holy crap.

With Alabama and a couple other key teams losing, there is a definite shakeup in the overall standings, which impacts the playoff seedings compared to last week. As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are based on the system in the book whose cover is seen here, where a 16 team playoff is built from all conference champions plus at-large bids. I'm acting as a one-man selection committee who is giving tentative conference titles based on records and filling in the at larges from there. Seedings are based on a review of each team's resume, with help from a few formulas. I include my Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS, for which you can see the most up to date info based on conferences here), Playoff Points (PP, basically showing how many wins the teams you've beaten have as something of a "strength of schedule" metric), and then computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG, found here, using the rankings in order of the list) and the late David Rothman (FACT, found here, though his formula is public domain and rankings based on his algorithm is compiled by someone at UCLA) which use margin of victory as a factor.

So with all the chaos and math in mind, let's see how things unfold.