Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 6

One last post for the month of September.

Conference play is starting en masse now, and teams are starting to get into the meat of their schedule. You know, other than the handful of SEC teams that shamefully have FCS games still coming up on the slate. You know who you are...

For now, we're just looking at what non-conference games happen to be on the slate. For the most part, the rankings of the conferences as they have been in past weeks will remain mostly unchanged. There are independents playing games still, which will throw a monkey wrench into some places here and there.

You can view last week's NCSS rankings here. Here's a look at the upcoming week. The only comments made on each conference are about non-conference games (in-conference games and byes are not mentioned as they don't impact NCSS).


Monday, September 29, 2014

2014 MLB Awards

What a summer it's been. There was a fair amount of parity in Major League Baseball, and it's nice to not have a New York or Boston team in the playoffs (so the East Coast bias can go away for one October). As a Cubs fan, I expected nothing this season. But they overachieved in the first year under Rick Renteria, and we got to see glimpses of the future. I look forward to next April/May when Kris Bryant gets his call.

But for 2014, no teams lost 100 games, and nobody won 100 games; it's the first time since 2007 that this has happened. It took until September 15th for the first playoff spot to be claimed, as the Angels rode a hot second half to a berth. The next day, the first divisions were claimed as Baltimore and Washington got to crack open some champagne. By the start of the final week, only half the spots were claimed. It made for a fun final week.

This season, I only got to one big league game, as my wife kidnapped me to go to Wrigley. This marks the only the second year (the other was 2008) that the Cubs had a sub-.500 record at games I attended, and the first time they went winless. I also didn't get to see Javy Baez in person. Next year, baby.

So with 2014's regular season in the books, it's time for me to hand out awards. For the most part, my votes have concurred with the official results in years past. I'd be willing to bet they'd do so again this year. Let's take a look.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 5

September football is in the books in the college ranks. Several undefeated teams still stand, as is the norm at this level, but a few fell this week. That will mean some major movement in the playoff points rankings for the week.

As a refresher, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are built in the form of a seeded 16-team bracket, where the ten conference champions automatically given berths, and the rest of the field is filled out with at-large berths. At present, 17 teams remain undefeated, so we're just a hair over the threshold. However, the Power conferences all have at least one unbeaten foe, and Marshall out of Conference USA is also undefeated, which means four bids automatically have to go to teams that have already lost games. That means four teams get screwed. I want to minimize the chances of that happening. So hopefully, next week's edition can see the first version of a potential bracket.

For the purposes of most of this post however, I'm going by conference to see how they are doing in relation to each other in terms of wins and Playoff Points. At the end I'll try to look through who the best teams are, plus you can look over the information yourself as well. For reference, here's last week's rankings. Let's see how the weekend changed the conference landscape. All numbers are rounded to the nearest hundredth.


Thursday, September 25, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

The eve of Week 4 is upon us, and with it, another post for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This week though, the byes have begun. Six teams are off this week, so we only have 13 games to cover this week.

We had a historical moment last week as well. Through two seasons, there had never been a sweep among differentiated games between our featured pickers. In Week 2, I swept those three games. Last week, Adam got revenge and swept all four of our contested games. As such, he has retaken the lead. But with so much time left in the season, that can flip back on its head.

It's definitely possible this week, as Adam and I see our biggest disparity yet. We disagree on a whopping eight of the 13 games on this week's slate. Let's see which games we actually find common ground on.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 5

With fall officially underway, we're fully into the football season. Every team has played at least a couple games so far, so we have a fair amount of data to compare non-conference slates. But each week, I need to keep tabs on this to check for any weird developments, like if Florida or Idaho are somehow able to add a 12th game given that their Week 1 contest got cancelled.

If we look back at last week's report, we had a pretty solid week of non-conference scheduling that included some flipping around of positions. Will the MAC keep its hold on the top spot? Or will Conference USA reclaim it? Can the SEC move out of the NCSS basement? Let's do the math. Remember, all numbers are rounded to the nearest hundredth.


Monday, September 22, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 4

Some great games and a few upsets over the weekend mean it's time to update the playoff picture for December. Week 4 provided some thrills, along with a bit of bad football that I happened to catch at various times.

With another week in the books, we have more information for the Playoff Points metric. The half dozen winless teams will continue to throw things off a bit, as their wins aren't helping the cause of any teams yet. Of course, other wins will loom pretty big now, and possibly more so as the season goes along.

Included towards the end of this week's post, I'll have a list of teams that I've deemed ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs. A few teams might get a turnaround depending on their schedule later, but a couple I've already deemed out. You probably know one of them if you're a regular reader of COAS.

But enough about the negative. Let's delve into the current Playoff Points situation. If you need a refresher on how this metric works, I've got a summary in the Week 1 post. You can refer back to last week's rankings here.


Thursday, September 18, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

We're onto Week 3 of the NFL season, and it's been a very weird season so far. There's a four-way tie for first in the NFC North, and the Buffalo Bills are the only 2-0 team in the AFC East. Obviously, this is a small sample size and proves why we need those 16 games to determine the best teams in a given season.

I think Adam and I forgot this last week. We had a first in this contest's history: we differed on three games, and I got all three of them. But we combined to go 4-9 on our groupthink games. Some of it was overreaction to Week 1, others of it was the parity of the NFL being on full display.

Overall, I'm tied for first, as three-year contestant Mark Murphy had a monster week despite forgetting his Thursday night pick. He has that going for him, as well as the fact that he's an Internet celebrity now. Fun times in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Contest!

On another fun note, I'm pleased to announce that I am the new NFC North reporter for UKEndzone, a UK-based football site discussing both the professional and college games. I'm thrilled to join their team. You can read my first piece for them here, and I'll be sure to share more of my work as it becomes available!

Even with this new gig, I'm not abandoning COAS. I'm having too much fun. So we're going onto the third week of picks against the spread. This week, Adam and I concur on 12 of the 16 games, so he's got a chance to retake the lead again. Let's get to it.


Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 4

With results and hopefully most scandal out of the way, let's focus on football itself. We're starting to get into more of the nitty-gritty of the college football season. The first three weeks have seen some conference play start up, but it will only start to get busier from here. Even so, there are still non-conference games dotted throughout the slate, and they need to be covered.

I think Week 3 on the whole was probably the best week from a scheduling standpoint I've ever seen. I kind of doubt we'll have anything like it this week, but there's only one way to find out. Let's take a look at how everyone did for this week's schedule.


Monday, September 15, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 3

Wow, what a week this past week has been. Most of the chaos has been at the NFL level of course, but you all know how I feel about the whole Penn State under-the-radar reinstatement. At the moment, I still refuse to reinstate them for the Death to the BCS Playoffs. There's a culture problem there, and I address it in the above post. But enough about stupid fans.

We've played three weeks of football, so the Playoff Points metric is starting to gain a little bit more credibility in terms of separating the haves from the have-nots. It's a metric that builds upon itself as the season goes on, which is why I like it so much. What seems like a great win early in the season based on biased polls can mean more of what it's supposed to mean in this system.

If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here (or click the link to the post on the sidebar). An explanation of how the Playoff Points system works can be found back at the Week 1 post. But let's see how this weekend's action impacts each conference. All scores are rounded to the nearest hundredth for the sake of space, but any rounded ties will be unrounded to determine which is higher, then rerounded for the blog post.


Thursday, September 11, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 2

It's been a crazy football week, especially in the NFL. At least on the field, things were for the most part normal.

It was a pretty strong debut for the coalition for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em. I stayed on my 2013 pace, but it has me in 2nd place out of four competitors this season. You can view the standings so far here.

So this week, Adam and I are at the picks again. Can I regain some ground in a follow up effort? This week, groupthink prevails, as we only disagree on 3 out of 16 picks. Doesn't bode too well for an early comeback and a flip in the standings. Let's take a look at the picks.


Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Did the Punishment Fit the Crime?

Photo by Matthew O'Haren (USA TODAY Sports)
Yesterday, amidst the chaos of the most recent Ray Rice fallout, the NCAA tried to sneak through news that Penn State was being reinstated. They now have all their scholarships again, and are eligible for the College Football Playoff this year. This ends what turned out to be about a two year suspension for the program, out of what was a four year sentence. So did the punishment fit the crime then? Did it fit now that we have the benefit of hindsight?

Yesterday, I still wasn't sure how to feel about the reinstatement. I was open to it, but I felt that the timing was absolutely terrible. Then, I saw a Dan Wetzel tweet last night.

Let me be clear. I have no problem with the fact that students, alums, and other fans assembled to celebrate. That's their right. I might have done the same in their situation. It's a good thing to get your team back to full strength. But the lengths they went to are disturbing. These people are demanding the reinstatement of a statue of someone who admitted they didn't do enough.

There are a few common arguments that Penn State fans and others have been using against the sanctions. "The NCAA doesn't have jurisdiction over what happened." "The people responsible for what happened are no longer at Penn State." "You're punishing innocent kids." "This has nothing to do with the football program." On and on it goes. In 2012, I addressed a few of these concerns. I think they still hold true today.

Obviously, I don't know the exact details of what happened in State College between 1998 and 2011, when the subhuman Jerry Sandusky was finally arrested for his crimes. But based on the Freeh Report (which yes, I know, has some question marks to it based on the reputation of Louis Freeh), unless the emails they found are fake, the following facts can be established.
  1. In May of 1998, there was a police report filed regarding Sandusky showering with one of the victims. An investigation takes place, but police decide there's not enough evidence to charge him. By early June, the investigation is closed.
  2. During this time, PSU officials (including Joe Paterno, according to emails), are kept up to date with the proceedings. They know there's an investigation here.
  3. In 1999, Sandusky retires as an assistant coach of the football team. Despite the lack of precedent for such a move, on August 31 of that year, Sandusky was granted emeritus rank, which allowed him continued access to "recreational facilities" on campus.
  4. In 2000, then again in 2001, janitors and Mike McQueary, respectively, saw alleged sexual misconduct in the football building. While the janitors never reported what they witnessed, McQueary told his father about it, and then went to tell Joe Paterno.
  5. Joe Paterno told a grand jury in 2011 that McQueary told him something sexual in nature happened in the building. Paterno reported it to his superiors, and they met more than once to follow up on the allegations. Despite this, no police report is filed.
I mentioned this in 2012, and I'll say it again. The 1998 investigation was handled the way it should have been. The police got involved, and authorities at Penn State, including Paterno, knew about it. If police didn't have enough evidence to do anything in 1998, I can give the Penn State leaders a pass at that moment. As soon as the 2001 incident came to their attention, their thoughts should have gone back to 1998. Even though there wasn't enough in '98, the fact that a second report, completely unrelated to the first, came out should have raised suspicion. The police should have been contacted. And don't start with the "Gary Schultz was in charge of the campus police!" His title was "Senior Vice President- Finance and Business". If he was in charge of police, his knowledge of these allegations meant he had an obligation to open an investigation too. If police aren't contacted, didn't these men at least have the obligation to revoke Sandusky's access to the football facility?

I don't know what the rationale was in 2001 for not doing more. But based on the facts above, I remain convinced that Paterno, Spanier, Schultz and Curley are all at the very least morally guilty for not doing more to dig into this. Had a police investigation been opened and nothing been found, these men would not be facing the scrutiny they are. Instead it would fall on the police, based on wondering how they could have found nothing not once, but twice.

So back to 2014. For people to think Paterno was innocent (I'm looking at the attorney general as well, despite the claim that Paterno probably wouldn't have faced charges had he not passed away in early 2012) is naive at best. Unquestionably, he did a lot of good for a lot of people. But we can't forget about the people he failed.

These fans need to realize that it''s okay to celebrate the release of sanctions. They just need to remember why the sanctions were imposed in the first place. Problem is, they aren't. This is why the sanctions were necessary in the first place. People claim there isn't a culture problem at Penn State, but there clearly is. People want not only the statue, but Paterno's official win total to be brought back to its on the field total of 409. Paterno's legacy is more important to some people than what happened in the football facility 15 years ago. That's why I tweeted this last night after seeing Wetzel's tweet.
Priorities, people. You can be happy that sanctions got reduced. Just remember what put you in a position to celebrate their removal in the first place.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

We've got one week of NFL football in the books, and now the college season is starting Week 3 on Thursday. I love this time of year.

I've been able to start measuring Playoff Points to a greater degree with a couple weeks worth of data in the books, and you can see the analysis here. Even though the Playoff Point metric is better, I still think the NCSS metric is an important one, as it faces the reality that a lot of teams suck at scheduling out of conference tests.

We're starting to get into more of a conference play time of year, but there are still plenty of non-conference tilts left, including a bunch this week. If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here. Let's take a look at this week.


Monday, September 8, 2014

The Dark Side of Sports, Part II

Photo uncredited
Wow, it's been crazy today.

Ozzie Newsome took the advice of my open note at the end of that post (...fine, he caved to collective peer pressure) and released Ray Rice. About an hour later, the NFL indefinitely suspended him.

Most of these issues I tackled in the above post, but to recap: the Ravens did the right thing... finally. The NFL also did the right thing... finally. Rice has no recourse with the Ravens, but the NFL Players Association will fight the NFL's decision. It's a second suspension for the same offense. I doubt it stands up. They may go for a middle ground; my coworker thinks that the suspension will ultimately be six games to equal the new system. If he can be reinstated at any point, I would hope NFL general managers realize they will be inviting heavy condemnation if they sign him. If he pays some sort of debt to society and truly repents, I'd be open to him returning, same as Michael Vick. But that isn't happening anytime soon.

Photo by Gene J. Puskar (AP)
Meanwhile, the NCAA decided that this afternoon would be the perfect time to pull a fast one and reinstate Penn State.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the rationale is behind this. What's clear is that the timing is terrible. They knew it would be a controversial decision, and saw a perfect smokescreen with Ray Rice. Fortunately, most of us are smart enough to see through that.

I'm just not sure where to cast my opinion on the decision itself. When the punishment first came down, I was wholeheartedly in support of it. But I need more information. Has the school fully taken steps to turn the corner from a dark part of its history?

Penn State supporters argue that the penalty was unfairly punishing athletes who had nothing to do with what happened. But as much as I dislike the system, bowl games are a privilege, not a right. Officials high up sure seemed like they covered up heinous crimes to protect their football program, and their supposedly sainted head coach was in the middle of it all. The NCAA punished a program that placed football as a higher priority than lives, something I've repeatedly condemned.

So what's the rationale for lifting it now? Has the school done enough to try to atone for the damage caused? I don't have enough information to be the judge of that. Even so, I'm skeptical of this decision, especially given when it was announced. Because of that skepticism, I'm keeping Penn State ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs unless there's enough out there to justify the decision.

The events of today are a great reminder to us all. Sports are great. They can bring people together in ways a lot of other things can't. But sometimes we get too engrossed in sport, and let it blind us to the things that really matter. Temper yourselves, and be careful not to fall into the trap.

The Dark Side of Sports

If you're a regular reader of COAS, or if you know me personally, you know I love sports. It's almost to a fault. I love playing them, watching them, writing about them... it's a big list. It's one of those things that definitely has its flaws and corruptions, but for many of us, we put it on the back burner and deal with it. Sometimes, we see things so heinous that tie to sports, that we are forced to confront the issue head on.

Photo from Getty Images
You've no doubt heard the story by now. Ravens running back Ray Rice made headlines back in February when video was leaked showing him dragging his then-fiancee out of an elevator in Atlantic City. He was charged with aggravated assault, but avoided trial by joining an intervention program. Inexplicably, Roger Goodell decided that two games was a long enough suspension for his misdeeds. If that wasn't enough, prior to the suspenion at a press conference, his now wife apologized for her role in what happened in Atlantic City.

Now today, furor has re-exploded thanks to TMZ releasing the video of what happened on the way into the elevator, but more importantly... in the elevator. Apparently, according to an official NFL statement, no one in the league saw this video until now. Fair warning: this video is pretty disturbing. Click on that link at your own risk.


Photo by Kenneth K. Lam (MCT)
I'm with the majority opinion that the 2-game suspension was way too light for the crime, and even Goodell thought that when he revamped the conduct policy to punish domestic violence cases more harshly. Unfortunately, as much as I'd like them to, the NFL can't go back and add games to the suspension. That becomes an ex post facto punishment, which is illegal. Yes, I know the NFL is not the court system, but the players' association would make that ex post facto argument, so the league knows better.

I was listening to Mike and Mike on my drive to the train station this morning, and they were talking about the release of this video. They agreed with the notion above, and suggested a Herm Edwards approach: make Ray Rice inactive. I'd love to see that. But will John Harbaugh do it?

Unfortunately, in the highest level of sports, integrity and character don't seem to matter all that much. If a guy can play, teams will take him, and use him. It's only when the bottom line or public image take a hit that anything gets done. And even then, a lot of times on field production will trump doing what's right.

I've been a married man for about two and a half months now. My wife and I have been together for five and a half years now. I would never even consider putting my hands on her, much less doing to her what Ray Rice did to Janay Rice. It's cowardly and disgusting. Ray Rice should be facing prison time for what he did. Instead, he has one more week before he can play football again.

For now, the NFL's hands are probably tied. But when he comes out of the tunnel in Cleveland (and let's be honest: he will, even though he shouldn't), I'm sure a lot of Browns fans will boo him. Heavily. And they should; he deserves it. But Ravens fans should do something to. Refuse to wear, or get rid of any Rice jerseys you have. Refuse to buy anything with his name or likeness on it, or if you want to go further, boycott stores that sell any of those items.

Photo uncredited
People probably already do that with Michael Vick because of his dogfighting past, but I don't want to see false equivalencies with that. Vick paid his debt to society and repented. He now seems to be an advocate against dogfighting, and as long as that remains true, he deserves the second chance he's gotten and has made the most of. If it comes to light that he went back to dogfighting, he deserves banishment from the league and prosecution to the fullest extent of the law. Ray Rice is different; he's not facing jail time now. He hasn't paid a debt to society in any form. And besides, Vick was let go by the Falcons after he was arrested. Rice, despite all the evidence, remains employed by the Ravens.

My last words are an open message to Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome. Do you want a man who had no problem spitting on, then punching his now wife, knocking her out, on your team? Do you want that man representing you and your organization not only on the field, but in the community? Do the right thing.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 2

Another week of college football is in the books. Everyone should have played at least one game, and a lot of teams have played two now. It's still way too early to be thinking about how to seed the playoffs, despite what some people want to do. But it's enough information now that I can start sharing some more of my numbers.

In last week's Playoff Points post, I explained basically how this metric works, so you can refer back to that one if need be. But after one week, everyone remained at zero playoff points, both in First and Second Degree forms. This week, some separation is starting to take place, but it's pretty miniscule.

Nonetheless, because I like this metric in terms of telling how good some teams are, I'm going to go by conference and take a look at the average number of wins in addition to the average number of both First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points. The idea here is to determine with a little more accuracy which conferences are better than others. This will help when it comes time to determine playoff seeds if two teams are just about even based solely on their own resume.

Since I'm ranking three different things, I'll list each conference alphabetically, put in those averages and include how they rank among the 10 conferences. Independents will be included as their own "conference" for the purpose of these metrics. Just so you know what the abbreviations below mean, PP1 is First Degree Playoff Points, and PP2 is Second Degree Playoff Points.


Thursday, September 4, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 1

We're finally here! Tonight begins another campaign. 32 teams. Only one gets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. And for the next five months, people will be guessing over 250 games in an effort to find out who will claim that trophy.

For the third year in a row, Confessions of a Sportscaster will be picking games against the spread as determined by ESPN.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em game. You can join probably up until kickoff tonight.

In addition to actually making those picks though, I like to rationalize them. It was done in partnership with another NFL blog last year, but this year it will be done entirely on COAS. I also have a new partner whose picks will be appearing alongside my own. Adam Quinn, my wife's cousin's husband, was a part of the contest last season on ESPN. Some time last winter (I think after the regular season ended), I had said something to him about possibly joining me in actually picking games on here, and he was excited to join in. Likewise, I'm excited to have him aboard. And he's a Bears fan, so it tempers the bias here a little bit.

You'll see both of our picks for each game in tandem, along with a short rationale for why we picked what we did. Sometimes this has a lot of football based knowledge. Other times, not so much. For the opening week, we agreed on 10 out of the 16 of results. Good luck to you, sir! Let's reveal the Week 1 picks!

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

NFC West Preview

Tomorrow night we begin! With just the one day left, I have only the NFC West left to preview. Some people argued that this division should have had three teams make the playoffs last year, but they only managed Seattle and San Francisco. This year, one wild card still remains, but who will get it?

With the season kicking off tomorrow night, you still have a little time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This is your last chance to join in, but it is free to join. It's also a lot of fun. I've enjoyed it a lot... though maybe it's had something to do with being able to crack numerous jokes. I already have a couple in mind, though more will show up as the season goes on.

But enough about that. Let's predict the NFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks
2013: 13-3 (1st), won Super Bowl XLVIII
The defending champs come into the new season without a ton of lost personnel. Most of the defense returns, with the one major notable departure being Brandon Browner. Other than him, the Legion of Boom is still around. Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith might start at linebacker, and the defensive line is one of the best in football. On offense, Russell Wilson remains the best value in the league and doesn't need to be a world beater with the talent around him. Golden Tate is gone, but he still has Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin to throw to, plus Marshawn Lynch to wreak havoc on the ground. There hasn't been a repeat champion in a decade, but the Seahawks could be the ones to break the streak.
2014 Prediction: 13-3

2. Arizona Cardinals
2013: 10-6 (3rd), missed playoffs
The Cardinals had an excellent 2013, but missed the playoffs because of the strength of the rest of the conference. The league's top run defense returns, and adds some pieces to bolster the pass defense. Adding Antonio Cromartie as your #2 corner across from Patrick Peterson will help, as will the return of Tyrann Mathieu. The question is if Carson Palmer can cut down on the turnovers (22 picks in 2013). Michael Floyd and Ted Ginn should be good pieces to take some pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald, while Andre Ellington will be the top running back this year. This year, they won't miss out.
2014 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card

3. San Francisco 49ers
2013: 12-4 (2nd), lost in NFC Championship Game
Am I crazy? The team that has made three straight NFC title games won't make the playoffs? Colin Kaepernick has a ton of weapons to throw to, yet the Niners had the third fewest passing yards in 2013. There are ground weapons galore though too, with rookie Carlos Hyde backing up veteran Frank Gore. Problem is, there are some questions on the offensive line, and the defense is a question mark. NaVorro Bowman is out to start the year, and Aldon Smith is facing a lengthy suspension. The secondary has also lost a ton of pieces. All these things won't totally kill this talented team, but I think it torpedoes their playoff hopes significantly.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

4. St. Louis Rams
2013: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
The RGIII trade gave the Rams a ton of picks to work with, but it hasn't done much for their offense. Sam Bradford will miss the season, which means at least for now Shaun Hill is the Rams' 2014 quarterback. Zac Stacy and Tre Mason will make for a good 1-2 rushing punch, but the passing game will have issues. But you look at that defense... my goodness. The defensive line is probably better than Seattle's, and I really like the linebacking corps. It should help a secondary that I'm not totally convinced of, since quarterbacks will need to throw a little quicker than normal. I just don't know that they can score enough points to make a difference.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

Now that the whole NFC has been predicted, here's how the playoffs will unfold in my vision:
  1. Seattle Seahawks: 13-3
  2. Green Bay Packers: 11-5
  3. New Orleans Saints: 11-5
  4. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
  5. Arizona Cardinals: 11-5
  6. Chicago Bears: 10-6
Tomorrow the season starts, and since it's the beginning of a week, I'll have the Week 1 picks of the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. I have a new guest picker this year as well, and I'll introduce him tomorrow morning. Rest up, football fans: tomorrow night should be amazing!

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Week 1 of the college football season is in the books! There were a few upsets, but for the most part, things went the way one would expect them to. It's way too early to even really think about the playoffs (yet, some "experts are already picking their four playoff teams for the College Football Playoff... come on, guys). I have no intention of looking at potential Death to the BCS Playoffs brackets for another several weeks. I will nonetheless continue to build on the metrics for those playoffs and keep you up to date on what's going on.

So in this week's look at the NCSS rankings, I'll update the cumulative scores of each conference and re-rank them. You'll see both this week's score and the total one, while I look over how well each conference scheduled (and call out teams that have FCS foes on their schedules). Please also note that a game was suspended over the weekend. A makeup date hasn't been announced, but for now, the NCSS scores from Week 1 have been updated to reflect the change.


Monday, September 1, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 1

I'm starting a new weekly post in relation to the Death to the BCS Playoffs this season. Since the NCSS rankings do have a bit of a weakness to them, I want to more closely analyze the standings in this more important metric on a weekly basis after all the teams are done playing in a given week.

The first link above will take you to the guide for how playoff points work, but I'll expand on it here. I borrow a model similar to what the Illinois High School Association uses for its football playoffs. In the IHSA, you make the playoffs automatically if you win a minimum of 6 games, though if you win 5 you can sneak in if you have enough "Playoff points", which equal the total number of wins of all your scheduled opponents. I like the idea, but I'm going a step further. The IHSA includes combined wins of defeated opponents in the chart on their page, and that's the metric I use for "First Degree Playoff Points".

Obviously, the more games your team wins, the more playoff points you'll have, but they're worth more if you beat good teams. But how do we define "good teams"? That's why I added the "Second Degree Playoff Points" metric this season. Those are calculated by taking the average number of First Degree Playoff Points of the teams you beat. The average, however, will be determined out of the number of wins each team has. So for example, so we don't imbalance the difference between an eight-win team and an eleven-win team, the gross number of playoff points of the teams beat by our eight and eleven-win teams in question are divided by eight and eleven, respectively. This is to ensure that a ton of zeroes don't screw over the smaller teams. The Second Degree metric is used to see, on average, how good the teams you beat actually were.

Photo by Steven Branscombe (USA TODAY Sports)
One note to make though: because I condemn most FCS matchups (unless people lose to North Dakota State, which I think is hilarious, and so does Rodger Sherman at SBNation), wins over those schools add no playoff points to your resume, First or Second Degree. The idea is that you want to beat the best opposition possible. Of course, this could theoretically mean that if Iowa State runs the table from here on out, they'd get the Big 12 automatic bid and would look like a tank at 11-1, but I'd have to dock them somewhat for losing to NDSU.

So what I'll do in this post is go by conference and look at the average number of Playoff Points, starting with First Degree and then Second Degree. It may not mean a ton, but it helps rank the conferences a little better.