2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Championship

Out of principle, I didn't watch the BCS Championship Game on Monday night. It also didn't help that my TV is messed up and the quick glance I did of the game showed a Mutant Tre Mason.

What's clear to me is that simulations aren't a perfect solution to solving the whole "Best team in the nation" debate because the results of the Rose and Sugar Bowls, as well as Monday's title game have seen some contradictions in what has happened through three rounds of playoff games. Michigan State was a first round elimination here and Stanford is playing for the championship, despite MSU beating Stanford out in Pasadena on New Years Day. On the plus side, we got to see at least a simulation of what would happen if Alabama played FSU, and based on Bama's showing in the Sugar Bowl, I don't think the simulation was quite accurate. But considering the system that put FSU and Auburn up against each other is corrupt, I wanted to run a more equitable system.

So, a week after the college football season is over, I run one last set of simulations. Florida State ran through the highest seed combinations it could en route to Pasadena, and on the other side, Stanford took out an upstart Central Florida team, then blew out Auburn to steal their magic.

Given the magnitude of this game, I'm going to simulate it as a best-of-five, with the "clinching" game being the official one. Weather in Pasadena will be taken into account around the kickoff time mentioned. Simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to one last hurrah.


(3)Stanford vs (1)Florida State

Game 1: (3)STAN 23, (1)FSU 20
Game 2: (3)STAN 35, (1)FSU 28
Game 3: (1)FSU 32, (3)STAN 20
Game 4: (3)STAN 48, (1)FSU 34
This was a very tight game where, in the first three quarters, neither team led by more than 10 points. Stanford tied the game at halftime and again by the end of the 3rd quarter. After an early Florida State field goal to take the lead, the Cardinal scored the final 17 points of the game to walk away champions. Tyler Gaffney ran 26 times for 229 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Remound Wright was the hero with the go-ahead score in the 4th with a 33 yard dash. Kevin Hogan did just enough, completing 14 of 19 passes for 175 yards, a pair of touchdowns and one pick. Jameis Winston went 21-37 for 291 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while struggling down the stretch.

To see the final bracket, click here.

Now see, this is why the playoffs need to actually be played rather than simulated. I have a hard time believing that in simulating this four times, Stanford would win three of the matchups, considering what happened in the Rose Bowl combined with Jameis Winston playing really well in BCS title game. While history will show the Florida State won the BCS title, Stanford gets the title in a more fair and equitable system, and yet neither school will get a banner recognizing their feat in Indianapolis at NCAA headquarters (FCS champion North Dakota State gets the D-I representation). Even so, with a simulated champion, we need to determine a simulated Playoff MVP.

2013 Death to the BCS Playoffs MVP

Tyler Gaffney- RB, Stanford: 117 carries, 829 yards, 8 TD; 9 catches, 54 yards
When you average 7.1 yards a carry over four games and extrapolate that out to managing 200+ rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns per game over the course of the tournament... you're in really good shape. Kevin Hogan was good, don't get me wrong, but he was more of the complementary guy who took advantage of a fantastic rushing attack led by this kid. He didn't do much catching the ball out of the backfield, but clearly he didn't need to.

That does it from the realm of college football for the 2013 season! Hopefully I'll be back at this system again in August next year crunching numbers for a better playoff than the one the conference commissioners are trying out this coming year, and we'll see how close the brackets are to my own.