Sunday, December 20, 2015

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

Yesterday marked the official beginning of bowl season. With that in mind, now comes the fun part for me of the year in running through the what ifs of a 16 team playoff.

The College Football Playoff doesn't begin until New Year's Eve, but their top four teams match the Death to the BCS Playoffs' top four seeds. This playoff just adds the six remaining conference champions along with six other at large teams. Here's the fun part: the higher seeds in this round and the two to follow get home field advantage. It makes things more exciting, as the campuses get to come alive with fans and alums for games that matter more.

So here's how I work running through the results of these games, if you're new to this concept. You can view last year's first round post as an example. The higher seeds (1-8 this week) get to host the matchups, with weather at the time of kickoff being taken into account. In an attempt to make this game as accurate as possible, I use injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to keep injured players out. I will simulate these games using WhatIfSports.com and to minimize luck, I will simulate these games as a best of three, with the clinching game going down as the official result.

Without further ado, here are yesterday's results from the first round.

12pm Games

(15) Arkansas State @ (2) Alabama
Game 1: (2)ALA 52, (15)ARKST 21
Game 2: (2)ALA 48, (15)ARKST 9
Jake Coker threw an interception on the opening drive deep in his own territory, which set up the Red Wolves with fantastic field position. On 4th and 1 from the 3 yard line though, they settled for a field goal. Coker made up for it on the next drive though with a 49 yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley to take the lead. Those were the first of 28 unanswered Alabama points, as the Red Wolves went just 4-17 on third down. Derrick Henry ran 34 times for 245 yards and two touchdowns for the Crimson Tide while Coker completed 26 of his 36 passes for 342 yards and four touchdowns. Fredi Knighten threw for 144 yards on 12 of 23 passing for Arkansas State.

(14) Bowling Green @ (3) Michigan State
Game 1: (14)BGSU 38, (3)MSU 28
Game 2: (14)BGSU 39, (3)MSU 9
Bowling Green's defense came to play in East Lansing, as the Spartans failed to get anything going on the ground, rushing for just 25 yards on 37 carries. Despite that, the Spartans did get a couple first quarter field goals to take a 6-0 lead after one quarter. That lead lasted one play of Bowling Green's first drive of the second quarter, as Fred Coppet broke a 65 yard touchdown run to tie the game, but a missed extra point kept it at 6-all. The Spartans answered with a field goal on the next drive, and that was it for them. Bowling Green attacked the Spartan offense with reckless abandon, sacking Connor Cook five times to help seal the deal while their run game ground the Spartan defense into the turf. Coppet ran 12 times for 115 yards and three scores while Travis Greene added 151 yards and two more scores on 23 carries for Bowling Green. Connor Cook completed 19 of his 31 passes for 263 yards for Michigan State.

3pm Games

(13) Western Kentucky @ (4) Oklahoma
Game 1: (13)WKU 34, (4)OU 32
Game 2: (4)OU 45, (13)WKU 17
Game 3: (4)OU 51, (13)WKU 21
After a scare with the first sim, the Sooners got things going in the other two, proving the first sim to be random luck. Oklahoma's ground game got going right away, as on the third play from scrimmage Samaje Perine broke free for a 52 yard touchdown. Oklahoma added a field goal later, but the Hilltoppers got their offense going from there, going on a ten play touchdown drive, forced a punt, then embarked on another touchdown drive to make it 14-10 Western Kentucky. Baker Mayfield threw a pick on the ensuing drive deep in his own territory, but Brandon Doughty threw one on the second play of the WKU drive, and the Sooners escaped. They scored 17 unanswered points to end the half up 27-14. Oklahoma added the next 24 points in the third quarter to turn it into a laugher. Mayfield was efficient, completing 16 of 21 passes for 241 yards and two scores, while Perine ran 22 times for 186 yards and three touchdowns. Doughty had 283 yards and three scores, but two interceptions for the Hilltoppers.

(12) Houston @ (5) Ohio State
Game 1: (5)OSU 35, (12)HOU 23
Game 2: (5)OSU 43, (12)HOU 18
The Cougars got off to a good start, holding the Buckeyes to a field goal on their opening drive, then Greg Ward threw a 15 yard touchdown pass to Demarcus Ayers to give Houston a 7-3 lead. The Cougars added a field goal early in the second quarter to make it 10-3, but on the ensuing drive, Ezekiel Elliott broke a 33 yard touchdown run to tie the game. Ward fumbled on the ensuing drive, the Buckeyes recovered, and Elliott pounded one in from 17 yards out to give the Buckeyes the lead back. J.T. Barrett added a touchdown pass late in the quarter to make it 24-10, and the rout was on. Barrett threw just 16 passes, completing 11 for 107 yards and a score while Elliott ran 27 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. Greg Ward completed 12 of 24 passes for 144 yards and two touchdowns for the Cougars.

6pm Games

(16) San Diego State @ (1) Clemson
Game 1: (16)SDSU 19, (1)CLEM 9
Game 2: (1)CLEM 39, (16)SDSU 13
Game 3: (1)CLEM 34, (16)SDSU 24
For a second, I thought we'd have another fantastic upset on our hands, and San Diego State gave it a great effort, but Clemson was just too much. Christian Chapman threw a pick on the opening drive, and Clemson cashed in on a Deshaun Watson 11 yard touchdown run. The Aztecs turned the tide with 17 unanswered points from there, including a Damontae Kazee 30 yard pick-six. Clemson answered, as a 53 yard catch and run by Deon Cain helped set up another 11 yard Watson touchdown. The teams traded punts for the whole second quarter until the very end, when Watson hit Cain for a 40 yard catch and run touchdown that gave Clemson the lead. They added a field goal following a Chapman interception in the third quarter to make it 24-17, forced a three and out, and Wayne Gallman sealed the deal with a 65 yard touchdown run on the next play. The Aztecs would pull back within a touchdown late in the third quarter, but would get no closer. Deshaun Watson completed 9-17 passes for 200 yards and a score, and Gallman finished with 166 yards on 25 carries. Donnell Pumphrey led the Aztecs with 176 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, while Christian Chapman finished with 94 yards on 9-19 passing with two picks.

(9) Florida State @ (8) Notre Dame
Game 1: (9)FSU 25, (8)ND 22
Game 2: (8)ND 47, (9)FSU 25
Game 3: (8)ND 39, (9)FSU 23
DeShone Kizer broke free early in the game for an 18 yard touchdown run to open the scoring, but former Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson wouldn't go quietly. He threw a 12 yard touchdown to Jacques Patrick late in the frame to tie the game. The Irish had to settle for field goals on their next two drives, allowing Dalvin Cook's 65 yard touchdown run to give Florida State a 14-13 lead. The teams traded field goals to close out the half, but then the Irish got going. Josh Adams punched one in from three yards out to give the Irish the lead, and Kizer hit Alize Jones from 34 yards out early in the fourth quarter to extend the lead. Injured running back C.J. Prosise came in late to seal the deal with a 26 yard touchdown scamper. He finished with nine carries for 61 yards while Josh Adams had 14 for 131, including one carry that went for 75 yards, while Kizer completed 17 of 23 passes for 263 yards and a score. Dalvin Cook led the Seminoles with 178 yards on 21 carries and two scores, including a 59 yard touchdown run with less than two minutes to go. Golson finished the day 19 of 33 for 199 yards and a touchdown.

9pm Games

(11) TCU @ (6) Stanford
Game 1: (11)TCU 48, (6)STAN 34
Game 2: (11)TCU 49, (6)STAN 45 (OT)
Our first overtime game of the playoffs was an upset, but it shouldn't have required overtime. Aaron Green had three first half touchdowns for the Horned Frogs, who led 28-6 at halftime. Christian McCaffrey took over in the third quarter though, taking his second carry of the drive for a 62 yard touchdown to get the Cardinal back in the game. After a Horned Frog punt, McCaffrey used a 39 yard run to set up a touchdown pass from Kevin Hogan to Francis Owusu to make it 28-20. Green broke a 31 yard touchdown run on the next drive to make it a two score game again, but McCaffrey went bonkers in the fourth quarter with three touchdown runs, including a go-ahead 42 yarder with 2:51 left to go. Trevone Boykin overcame two sacks to start the ensuing drive with a 23 yard pass on 3rd and 21, fought his way into the red zone, then got a spike off with one second left to force a final play from the 15, where he hit Josh Doctson to force overtime. In overtime, Stanford inexplicably only gave McCaffrey one carry and settled for a field goal. Boykin responded with a four play drive capped off by a 13 yard touchdown pass to Dominic Merka. I don't know why, but the simulator forced TCU to kick the extra point, but they made it, hence the four point overtime win. Christian McCaffrey ran 29 times for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. Trevone Boykin completed 22 of his 26 passes for 310 yards and two scores, while Aaron Green had 158 yards and four touchdowns on 25 carries for TCU.

(10) Oklahoma State @ (7) Iowa
Game 1: (7)IOWA 31, (10)OSU 19
Game 2: (10)OSU 27, (7)IOWA 20
Game 3: (7)IOWA 39, (10)OSU 20
The Cowboys went with a quarterback by committee, with J.W. Walsh getting the start due to the injury to Mason Rudolph, yet Rudolph still played a significant chunk of the game. The Oklahoma State offense got off to a good start, as they led 10-0 late in the first quarter before the Hawkeyes started to get going. Akrum Wadley, starting for the injured Jordan Canzeri, run for two second quarter touchdowns to give the Hawkeyes a 16-10 lead going into the half. Iowa then added a field goal and a Henry Krieger Coble touchdown catch to go up 25-10. The Cowboys got a field goal at the end of the third quarter followed by a Chris Carson touchdown to make it 25-20, but J.W. Walsh threw an interception of OSU's next drive at his own 26, and Wadley punched a run in from there to seal the win for Iowa. Wadley finished with 95 yards and three scores on 15 carries, LeShun Daniels went for 98 yards and a score on 19 carries while C.J. Beathard threw for 199 yards on 17 of 22 attempts and a score. Ben Grogan missed three field goals for Oklahoma State, which didn't help matters any.

To see the updated bracket, click here.

Photo by Mike McGinnis (Getty Images)
I don't know why, but it always seems like Michigan State struggles in the Death to the BCS Playoffs. They were seeded high like this a couple years ago too and got upset in the first round, then in reality beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl. I don't get football. We also saw a few other great games, especially that Stanford-TCU classic. Heck, even the lowest seed in San Diego State gave Clemson a game. I'm just glad this year's first round wasn't straight chalk; it makes things more interesting.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson (Getty Images)
The results from this week means we get a new host site for the quarterfinals: Fort Worth, Texas. TCU gets to host a playoff game against the new darlings in Bowling Green while Notre Dame heads to Clemson for a rematch, Ohio State's repeat dreams remain alive but require a trip to Norman, and Alabama hosts Iowa. Game times have already been set, though Stanford made it complicated by losing in overtime after that furious second half. You can view those on the bracket, available at the link above, or by clicking on the Death to the BCS link on the sidebar.

Congratulations to the eight teams still alive for national championship consideration, and good luck to you all next week!

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