2021-22 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Yesterday was a busy day, and today it continues as the men make their season debut.

It'll be another evening at Merner Fieldhouse for me, which I'm excited for once again. It should be an interesting campaign on this end as well, so let's take a look at what to expect on the other side.

2021-22 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

"Soon, the echoes of #THREEEEEEEEE will return to downtown Naperville."

And by soon, I mean... Tuesday, November 9th.

It's been a crazy year and a half-plus, transitioning to a world of working from home on the regular, going sportsless for months at a time, and even when we first came back, often having those without crowds. But we're starting to get back to normal, and I'm looking forward to it as the NCAA Division III hoops season is officially underway around the country. And as I prepare to begin my 11th season as the resident idiot on the microphone at Merner Fieldhouse, I figure it's time to take a look at the upcoming campaign. Since the women's team tips first, we'll start with them.

A Return to Normalcy and the Death to the BCS Playoffs

For several months I've lain dormant. Yes, sports have come back, I've gone to a couple baseball games this summer, including getting to the new park in Arlington. A new NBA champion was crowned, and will be a great addition to a returning feature coming next summer that I kind of can't wait for. 

But now that we're well into August and football is on the horizon, I've got a couple usual features that will be returning. The first is the annual Pigskin Pick 'Em contest that will feature most of the usual faces, and possibly a new one or two. But the second, and thus the topic of this post, is the return of the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

With the chaos of last year and most conferences playing internally, I cancelled the 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs. I didn't feel that only playing within conferences would have given a fair playoff picture. Now that schedules are more or less what we normally see, we can get back to the usual features.

So for those of you unfamiliar with this, about a decade ago I really enjoyed reading the book you see at the header of this post. Wetzel, Peter, and Passan really tore into the old powers that be in college football and, while the current system is better than the corrupt BCS, that's an awfully low bar. I'm more into a model similar to what Division III uses: access to championships across all conferences, and that's exactly the model the authors proposed in their book. A 16 team tournament with automatic bids going to conference champions, and filled out with at large teams works. What makes this model even better is that instead of half-full bowl games with schools getting fleeced, they get to make more money by playing the first three rounds of the tournament on campus, with the title game at the Grandaddy of them All.

So how do we decide this field? Over the past few years I've developed and refined a few different metrics that will assist with data gathering and ultimately, field selection. You will be seeing the following:

• 

  Advance warning of November's "Nick Saban Is A Coward" Week
  Photo by Rogelio V. Solis (AP)

  
  Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS): On a weekly basis, I look at the schedule and assign teams a number for their game.
• Point System
• -1 point for hosting an FCS opponent
• 0 points for a bye or playing a conference opponent
• 1 point for playing a Group of Five team at home or a neutral site
• 2 points for playing a Group of Five team on the road, or for playing a Power Five team at home or a neutral site
• 3 points for playing a Group of Five team on the road
• Obviously, higher numbers means a "tougher" schedule on paper. Usually the Group of Five teams will end up with significantly higher numbers here
• This is more of a secondary metric; its primary purpose to confirm that no team plays multiple FCS schools in a single season. Playing more than one, except in circumstances of game cancellations forcing a last-minute add, will result in disqualification from the Death to the BCS Playoffs
• Playoff Points: I borrowed and adjusted this metric from the Illinois High School Association's football playoff qualifying system. This metric comes in multiple forms
• First Degree Playoff Points (PP1): Basically a "Who did you beat?" question. You receive points equal to the number of wins of each team you beat, and is cumulative for the whole year.
• In 2019, the top team in this metric was Ohio State with 84 points, and the national average for the season was about 28 points, and among playoff teams the average was 58 points. Note that wins over FCS opponents award no points.
• Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2): Expands on the first question by adding in context of "How good were the teams you beat, really?" Teams are awarded the number of First Degree Playoff Points the teams they beat have earned, and those totals are averaged per win (e.g. a 10-2 team gets PP1 from all ten teams they beat, and that sum is divided by 10; a 1-11 team's PP2 equals the PP1 of the team they beat.)
• In 2019, Ohio State led this metric as well with over 32 PP2. The national average was just shy of 16, and among playoff teams the average was close to 24. Again, wins over FCS opponents award no points, which means a zero is included in the calculation of the average for those teams.
• Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP): Exactly the same as PP1, but taking losses into account. A team that loses has the number of losses by the team that beat them subtracted from their score. Basically something of a "How bad was/were your loss(es)?" question. Obviously, undefeated teams lose no points, and as an added wrinkle, losses to FCS teams count as double (e.g. in 2019, Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel, who went 6-6; Georgia Tech lost 12 aPP from this game.)
• In 2019, Ohio State obviously led this category as well with 84 points as an undefeated regular season team. To illustrate a better example, take a pair of 10-2 teams in Penn State and Notre Dame. Penn State had 55 PP1 and Notre Dame had 61. Penn State's two losses were to 10-2 Minnesota and 13-0 Ohio State, giving them 53 aPP. Notre Dame's two losses were to 11-2 Georgia and 9-3 Michigan, giving them 56 aPP.
• Computer Rankings: This comes in later in the season when I start building out brackets. I use three formulas compiled online. These formulas all take margin of victory into account.
• Jeff Sagarin (He had a formula that was used for the BCS back in the day, but his BCS formula didn't account for margin of victory. The one used for this ranking does.)
• David Rothman (The late statistician also used to have his ranking incorporated into the BCS until they dumped the margin of victory component was to no longer be considered, and he dropped out of the BCS. His formula is open-source and calculations are compiled by a faculty/staff member at UCLA.)
• All My Sports Teams Suck (I wanted an additional source and added this ranking later.)
• Record vs Playoff Teams: This factor was a more recent addition, influenced by regional rankings used in Division III sports. This can be misleading; losses to playoff teams are not a dealbreaker and in fact will often be used to bolster a team's case. All other factors being relatively equal, a 10-2 team whose two losses came to playoff teams may get the edge over a team that went 0-1 or even 1-1 against playoff teams.

Over the next few months, I'm going to try to go back to old patterns of posting once or twice a week, looking over NCSS and Playoff Point scores, comparing by conference every week and linking to the sheet where I tally all of these. As we get closer to playoff time, I may even do some mock brackets again. But following conference championship weekend, I'll go into the lab, look over all this data, and build out the bracket. I may even do some guest assistance with this; we'll see.

This is, however, also the part where I need to make a couple disclaimers. Ohio State was briefly serving an at large suspension due to actions by one of their assistant coaches; that suspension has been served and is thus lifted, so they are fully eligible for the playoffs. However, two schools are not, and if you've been a COAS reader from the beginning, you know who they are. Baylor, due to its coverup of sexual assault by players under Art Briles some time back, is permanently banned from the playoffs despite having made prior appearances. But the other, who has never appeared in the playoff, and never will, is the cult at Penn State. I've said it for years, and I'll say it again: Joe and the administration knew, and when you're a cult that prioritizes football over the well being of children, you don't deserve a football program. Penn State should have gotten the death penalty, and their football stadium and all football-related facilities should be burned to the ground and the earth salted where those places stood.

The season kicks off with a random Big Ten game in about a week for something of a Week Zero, then Week 1 kicks off in full next week. Next week is probably when I'll start with my first NCSS post, and we'll pick it up as the season goes along. Good luck to your teams this season, and I look forward to kicking the Death to the BCS Playoffs back off!

2021 NL West Preview

And so, just one division remains.

With Major League Baseball starting in less than 24 hours, I've covered ground in five of the six Major League divisions, having worked my way from the east coast all the way out west now.

And so, let's tackle the NL West and conclude the series. Happy Opening Day, and good luck to your team!

2021 AL West Preview

Happy Opening Day Eve!

With the Major League season kicking off tomorrow, I have one day left to get this in. The past couple of days, I've gone through both East and Central divisions for the upcoming season, leaving us with just a pair of divisions to go today.

So before we tackle our defending champion, let's take a look at the American League West.

2021 NL Central Preview

We're halfway through Major League Baseball for the 2021 season, and with the West slated for tomorrow, it's time for me to get back to work and start the second half of the preview series for 2021.

Earlier today I attacked the AL Central, so this afternoon I'll swap leagues and attack my home division.

Let's look at the NL Central.

2021 AL Central Preview

Day two of my set of previews for the upcoming MLB season is underway!

Yesterday I covered both East divisions, and I'm working my way west over the next couple days. Since our champion came from out west, I'm saving them for tomorrow, which means I'm staying close to home today.

Starting things off, let's look at the American League Central.

2021 NL East Preview

Finishing up the first day of two-a-day's as we approach the start of the 2021 MLB season!

Earlier today I did my predictions for the AL East as I alternate leagues and work my way across the country to end with the division of our defending champion. Tomorrow I'll be in the Central divisions.

To finish today, let's look at the NL East.

2021 AL East Preview

You know we're getting back to some semblance of normalcy when you're looking at a Thursday start to the Major League Baseball season with a full 162 game slate scheduled. And since they're going all out on this... I figure I need to get back to my normal pattern as well.

Last year I didn't do a preview series for Major League Baseball because of the delay in the start of the season, then the quick start up to the abridged one. But with a full year coming up, I feel like I need to get back to my usual pattern. So each of the next few days, I'll look at two divisions a day, alternating leagues as I used to, finishing up with the division hosting our defending champion. With the playoff picture for 2021 up in the air, I won't go into Wild Card picks since my picks could be rendered meaningless in a month or two, I'll just go with record projections.

So, without further ado, here's my first look at the upcoming season.

2020 NFL Preview

 

Fear not, Confessions of a Sportscaster is back from hiatus!

The COVID-19 pandemic threw a huge monkey wrench into the world of sports that... I'm still not totally over. I kind of feel bad that I haven't written anything since feeling compelled to address a race issue on North Central's campus, but for a long time there wasn't anything to watch except for old sporting events. Then the NBA and NHL set up some bubbles and got started, which I took in some of.

But now the NFL season is upon us, and by some miracle (and largely timing of everything) the season appears to be going on as planned, with the only difference being a ton of empty stadiums for the time being.

So it's time to get back into the swing of things. With the college football season largely in shambles even though some FBS conferences are playing on as if nothing is happening, this means we won't see a 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs, though I still have to simulate through the 2019 iteration. I have ideas for a pseudo-Tournament of Champions for the Death to the BCS Playoffs of the past that, time permitting, I may try to undertake. But more importantly... the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its ninth season as I try to maintain even year magic and retake my crown from Adam.

So with that in mind, I need to power through some NFL previews. Last year I condensed the eight posts, one for each division, down to two. This year I'm cutting it down to one and cutting back because I haven't paid a ton of attention to preseason training camps, and without preseason games or anything, it's hard to get a read on some things. But even so, I'm willing to put my neck out there and make predictions that almost certainly will go wrong.

2019-20 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Friday we checked in on the women. Today, we flip on over to North Central's men's team. They get a little bit later of a start to their season, and were extremely late in posting the official team roster, so I partially wanted to hold off for that.

But the anticipation for this group is really high, as are the expectations. Let's see what the outlook for the season is.

2019-20 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

With the calendar now flipped to November, the weather getting colder, and the time change meaning it's dark way earlier than it's supposed to be, that means it's about time for me to get back to one of my favorite times of year: basketball season!

The season officially tips off this weekend; the women get things started before the men do, so I'll do my first of two season previews and take a look at what the North Central College women's basketball team has on tap for the next few months!

2019 AFC Preview

We're just two days away from the start of the 100th NFL season, which means I have to finish up my preview series!

Yesterday I tackled the NFC as I condensed everything down for this season into two posts instead of eight. As I've done in years past, I will still do a little bit of a dive into each team along with my prediction for their season. At the end I will reveal my full playoff picture for the AFC.

You also have a couple days to get into the annual Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest! Adam and I are renewing this feature for its sixth year (eighth overall going back to the origins of this), so check back here every week for our picks against the spread!

Without further ado or shameless plugging, let's look at the AFC.

2019 NFC Preview

With the NFL season just days away, I figure it's time to get on the preview train!

I'm doing this a little bit differently compared to prior years. In the past I've done a post for each division, and I used to do one a day for eight days leading up to the season. This year I'm condensing it down from divisions to one post for each of the two conferences. It will make these posts a little bit longer, so I'll try to keep my thoughts about the individual teams brief.

Part of the reason I'm condensing this down is due to time; I think it's easier to build out two long posts especially given when I had a chance to sit down and write this out. But I'm also doing this because in talks with Adam we may have another NFL preview feature coming to lead up to my favorite series in Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.

For now, let's take a look at the NFC.

2019 MLB Preview: AL East

And with this, we are at the end of the preview road.

Back on Monday I started going division by division to look at the upcoming Major League Baseball season, alternating leagues and moving across the country. As is customary, I always conclude with the defending champion's division.

So to wrap this all up, let's grab a look at the AL East. Happy baseball season!

2019 MLB Preview: NL East

Opening Day is tomorrow! Let's celebrate by cranking out the last of the season previews!

I've condensed this down from prior years; I used to do one division a day. With a mid-week start to the season, I've changed that to doing two-a-days. I'm still sticking with my same pattern of rounding my way around the country, alternating leagues, and always ending with the division of the defending champion.

With the West and Central under wraps, and the defending champion Red Sox getting to round out the previews, we look at the NL East.

2019 MLB Preview: AL Central

We're halfway through the MLB preview series for 2019! Thursday everyone except the Mariners and A's open the season (since they played a pair in Japan already), so I'm working my way through the league early this week to be ready for Opening Day.

Earlier today I touched on my home division in the NL Central, so this afternoon we flip leagues and head over to the American League to see how the Central shapes up.

2019 MLB Preview: NL Central

The preview series continues on with, for all intents and purposes, official Opening Day coming on Thursday. And with four divisions left to cover before then... I'd better get to work.

As in prior years, I'm going across the country and alternating leagues, ending with the defending champion's division. That means tomorrow afternoon is when I'll have a gander at the AL East. But for now, let's visit the middle of the country and look at the NL Central.

2019 MLB Preview: NL West

I know technically, the Major League season started last week when the Mariners and A's played a couple games over in Japan. But two games out of 162 isn't enough for me to have justified running this feature early.

In what has become an annual tradition, one of the ones where I make an idiot out of myself, I run through all six MLB divisions and make my predictions for the season. Last year I condensed the posts to a span of three days, but I continued the pattern of going across the country and alternating leagues, ending with the defending champion's division.

With that in mind, we'll kick things off out west in the National League.

2019 March Madness Preview

I got some of my March Madness kicks early this year. But with the Division III Tournament complete and UW-Oshkosh taking the walnut and bronze home, it's time to fully turn my attention to Division I.

I haven't really watched much, if any, D-I hoops this year, but brackets are brackets. I have to do this.

Once again though, I won't be alone in this quest. Adam Quinn, who joins me every fall for Pigskin Pick 'Em, will join me again for NCAA Tournament picks. As we've done the past couple years, we're going to go region by region and make our Final Four picks, plus a few other things. Then to round it out, we'll make our title game predictions.