2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

For the fifth season, a college football playoff is playing out here on Confessions of a Sportscaster!

Defending College Football Playoff and (two-time defending) Death to the BCS Playoffs Champion Alabama is our top seed this season. This sort of thing has been par for the course in the history of this tournament: favorites to win the national championship have tended to win this tournament. Of course, we've had some weird things happen. In 2013, Stanford would lose the Rose Bowl to Michigan State, but in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, the third-seeded Cardinal would win the title while the Spartans were on the wrong end of a 5-12 upset. 2014 had a few first round upsets, but chalk got rocked the rest of the way instead of the chaos of reality. Last year had our first real Cinderella story as 14th-seeded MAC champ Bowling Green pulled a pair of upsets before the Tide struck the midnight bell en route to another title.

So how much chalk are we destined to see this year? Will we end up with the same Final Four as the committee created? Or will someone sneak their way in?

To find out, we're going the only way we can really do this: simulation. But we're not simulating these games at neutral sites. Higher seeds have been granted home field advantage this week and each of the next two weeks en route to the title game that gets played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena because where else? Why not play college football's biggest game on the sport's grandest stage? Forget Glendale; the Grandaddy of Them All has to have this honor.

So to determine the teams fighting for this privilege, we're going to take that home field advantage for each of the eight games and take weather as accurately as possible from real conditions and factor that into the simulations. In an attempt to make sure injured players aren't having an impact, I'm using injury data from Don Best's handicapping website to adjust depth charts accordingly. I'm going to simulate each game as a best of three in an attempt to factor out luck, with the "clinching" game serving as the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Without further ado, let's get to the football!

12pm Games

(14) Western Kentucky @ (3) Clemson
Game 1: WKU 48, CLE 31
Game 2: CLE 32, WKU 31
Game 3: WKU 52, CLE 38

Photo by Aaron Doster (USA TODAY Sports)

The upset! Western Kentucky scored 25 seconds into the game on a 69 yard Anthony Wales run, but the Tigers responded with 14 unanswered points, including taking advantage of a Hilltopper fumble. Wales scored from two yards out a few minutes into the second quarter to tie the game, Western Kentucky forced a three and out, got great field position, and retook the lead on a 24 yard touchdown pass to Nicholas Norris. Clemson got a field goal before halftime to make it 21-17. It stayed that way until midway through the third quarter when Mike White found Steve Donatell for a 47 yard catch and run for a touchdown. Western Kentucky added a field goal on their next drive to make it a two touchdown game. Early in the fourth quarter, it turned into a blowout as Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions and the Hilltoppers turned both into touchdowns to make it a rout. The Tigers picked up a couple garbage time touchdowns, including one after Western Kentucky opted to kneel three times inside of two minutes.

Mike White completed 15 of his 25 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns and Anthony Wales had 19 carries for 131 yards and two scores to lead the Hilltoppers to the upset. Deshaun Watson completed 25 of 34 passes for 362 yards and four touchdowns, but threw two costly interceptions. Artavis Scott had two touchdown grabs, Jordan Leggett had 112 receiving yards and a score, and C.J. Fuller ran 10 times for 75 yards and a touchdown for the Tigers.

(12) Houston @ (5) Michigan
Game 1: UM 17, HOU 12
Game 2: UM 44, HOU 3

Photo by Junfu Han (The Ann Arbor News)

This one wasn't close. Houston went three and out on the game's opening possession and they surrendered a 60 yard punt return by (I'm assuming) Jabrill Peppers for a touchdown to get the Wolverines on the board first. The Cougars' offense continued to stall and before they could blink it was 17-0 Michigan. Houston finally got into scoring range, but had to settle for a field goal. That was as close as they would get the rest of the way, as Michigan added a touchdown midway through the second quarter and took a 24-3 lead into the locker room. The Wolverines got a 65 yard touchdown run from Chris Evans in the third quarter as well as a field goal and added 10 more points in the final quarter for an easy first round victory.

Chris Evans finished with 102 yards and three touchdowns on 10 carries, De'Veon Smith added 21 carries for 166 yards, and Wilton Speight only needed to throw 14 passes, completing eight for 115 yards and a touchdown for the Wolverines. Greg Ward, Jr. went 11-21 with 146 yards passing, and Duke Catalon finished with just 71 yards rushing on 19 carries for Houston.

3pm Games

(16) Arkansas State @ (1) Alabama
Game 1: ALA 50, ASU 0
Game 2: ALA 44, ASU 3

Photo by Cedric Mason (Touchdown Alabama Magazine)

Arkansas State punted on its opening possession, and the Tide needed just two plays to take control of the game, as Damien Harris broke free for a 68 yard touchdown run. The Red Wolves managed to march down the field into field goal range, but had the kick blocked. Jalen Hurts would later hit Cam Sims from 12 yards out to make it 14-0 Alabama. Houston would add a field goal before halftime, but that was it. A Hail Mary at the end of the first half was incomplete, they got into the red zone late in the third quarter but lost a fumble, and the Crimson Tide turned it into a touchdown to effectively put the game away. Bo Scarbrough scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in the fourth, Damien Harris broke another big run, and the Tide added a safety in the final two minutes to bring us to the final margin.

Harris finished with 200 yards on 13 carries and two touchdowns, Scarbrough ran 16 times for 130 yards and three scores, and Jalen Hurts completed nine of 17 passes for 124 yards, a touchdown, and a pick for Alabama. Justice Hansen was not very good, completing just 16 of 41 passes for 216 yards with two interceptions, and Warren Wand ran 23 times for 76 yards for the Red Wolves.

(10) Colorado @ (7) Western Michigan
Game 1: WMU 36, COL 26
Game 2: WMU 25, COL 21

Photo by Raj Mehta (USA TODAY Sports)

Row the boat! After trading punts to open the game, the Broncos marched downfield and got a field goal to open the scoring. The Buffaloes responded with a five minute touchdown drive capped by a Kyle Evans five yard touchdown run. Colorado fumbled on their first possession of the second quarter deep in their own territory, but Western Michigan got flagged for holding and had to settle for another field goal. The Broncos forced a three and out and managed to get as close as the five yard line, but again had to settle for three points. They repeated the process again, and that field goal made it 12-7 Broncos at the half. The Buffaloes embarked on a six minute touchdown drive to open the second half and retake the lead, but they missed the extra point that would loom relatively large. The Broncos answered with another field goal, forced another fumble in Colorado territory, and converted another field goal to make it 18-13. Colorado bridged the final quarters with a touchdown drive and added a two point conversion to make it a three point game. Finally, it was the Western Michigan defense that broke the touchdown barrier for them, as Caleb Bailey picked off Sefo Liufau and returned it 11 yards for a touchdown. The Broncos were able to then force a punt, run the clock down to about three minutes, and made a heroic red zone stand as Liufau missed a pair of passes from the 11 yard line and the Broncos showed they deserved the first round home game.

Zach Terrell completed 20 of 32 passes for 197 yards, Jarvion Franklin and Jamauri Bogan combined for 126 yards on 34 carries, and kicker Butch Hampton made all six of his attempted field goals for Western Michigan. Phillip Lindsay picked up 72 yards on 22 carries and added 34 yards on three catches, but had a pair of costly fumbles, while Sefo Liufau completed 16 of 27 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown, but had that one mistake to Caleb Bailey.

6pm Games

(15) San Diego State @ (2) Ohio State
Game 1: OSU 34, SDSU 24
Game 2: SDSU 53, OSU 50 (4OT)
Game 3: OSU 42, SDSU 9

Photo from USATSI (photographer uncredited)

That second simulation gave me hope for a little more chaos, but alas it was not meant to be. The Aztecs did force a three and out of Ohio State's first possession, and got a field goal for their troubles, but couldn't get much more going offensively, and Christian Chapman threw a pick late in the first quarter that turned the momentum of the game around. The Buckeyes converted a pair of third downs on the ensuing drive, the latter of which Dontre Wilson broke for a 25 yard touchdown to give the Buckeyes the lead. The Aztecs stalled at midfield on their next drive, and Ohio State marched 83 yards in just under four minutes for another touchdown on a 23 yard Parris Campbell touchdown grab to make it 14-3. Ohio State forced a punt on the first possession of the second half, then responded with another Campbell touchdown grab to make it 21-3, and the rout was effectively on. Ohio State would miss a field goal, but would go on to force an Aztec fumble, and J.T Barrett provided the dagger with a 22 yard keeper. San Diego State found the end zone two plays later to make the score more respectable, but the Buckeyes pounded the ground the rest of the way, adding a pair of rushing touchdowns to the final margin.

J.T. Barrett completed 16 of 22 passes for 245 yards and three touchdowns and added 61 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries for Ohio State, while Mike Weber ran 15 times for 102 yards and a score and Curtis Samuel chipped in a late touchdown plunge. Christian Chapman was contained to a 16-33 day passing for 113 yards and an interception for the Aztecs. Donnel Pumphrey picked up 194 yards and a touchdown on 37 carries.

(11) Florida State @ (6) Oklahoma
Game 1: OU 50, FSU 40
Game 2: FSU 31, OU 30
Game 3: OU 41, FSU 31

Photo by Nate Billings (The Oklahoman)

Oklahoma forced a three and out on the opening possession, then marched downfield for a quick touchdown to take the early 7-0 lead. The Seminoles got back downfield quickly, but stalled at the 11 yard line and settled for a field goal. Oklahoma added a field goal later, but Florida State responded with a touchdown drive with 25 seconds left in the quarter to tie the game at 10. The Sooners exploded right back downfield, using a 32 yard completion to Dede Westbrook to set up a one yard Joe Mixon touchdown catch. The Sooners would then force a three and out and add a field goal. The Seminoles threatened late in the first half, but Deondre Francois threw a pick in the red zone to kill the drive and keep it 20-10 Sooners at the break. Francois was picked again from his own five yard line on Florida State's first possession of the third quarter, and Oklahoma capitalized on its first play to make it a 17 point game. Florida State got that touchdown back on the ensuing drive, forced a punt, and Francois led a long touchdown drive capped by a 10 yard touchdown pass to Ryan Izzo to make it 27-24. But the Sooners got a couple explosive plays to respond, and Samaje Perine punched it in from a yard out to bring the lead back to 10 points, and Abdul Adams served as the dagger from a yard out with four minutes left to seal the deal.

Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 25 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns, Dede Westbrook caught six passes for 144 yards, with five of those catches going for at least 20 yards, and Samaje Perine had 78 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries for the Sooners. Dalvin Cook had 27 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown and added 80 yards on six catches to lead the Seminoles, while Deondre Francois had a decent day with 307 yards on 25 of 38 passing for two touchdowns, but those two interceptions loomed large in the ten point loss.

9pm Games

(13) Temple @ (4) Washington
Game 1: WAS 44, TEM 10
Game 2: WAS 45, TEM 27

Photo by Otto Greule, Jr. (Getty Images)

Washington forced a quick three and out, then marched downfield in three and a half minutes to open the scoring on a Jake Browning touchdown to Darnell Daniels. The Huskies' defense suffered a breakdown later in the quarter though as Ryquell Armstead broke a 56 yard touchdown run to tie the game. It was all Washington from there, as the Huskies embarked on a 13 play, five minute drive that culminated in a Browning to John Ross five yard strike. Washington added another touchdown with just over four minutes remaining, then hit a field goal at the buzzer to make it 24-7 going into halftime. Temple made some great adjustments in the locker room: despite Washington getting great field position to start the second half, Browning was picked off by Nate Hairston, who took it back 70 yards for the score. Temple couldn't keep up the momentum, however, as the Huskies eventually got good field position and used a four play, 41 yard drive to push the lead back to 17. But on their next possession, Browning was picked again, this time by Delvon Randall, and the Owls capitalized nine plays later to bring the lead back down to 10. The Huskies regained their composure and went on a 90 yard drive that bridged the third and fourth quarters capped by a Lavon Coleman eight yard touchdown run, and the game was out of reach.

Jake Browning completed 21 of 33 passes for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, Myles Gaskin ran 27 times for 150 yards and two scores, and the Huskies' defense sacked Phillip Walker four times, led by two from Greg Gaines. Walker finished the day 15 of 28 for 155 yards and two touchdowns, and Ryquell Armstead added 94 yards rushing and a touchdown on 10 carries.

(9) USC @ (8) Wisconsin
Game 1: USC 43, WIS 17
Game 2: USC 34, WIS 10

Photo by Harry How (Getty Images)

This was a game of field position early, and the Trojans took the early advantage of a short field as Sam Darnold hit Deontay Burnett from five yards out to give USC the early advantage. Things got a little weird in the second quarter, as Wisconsin was able to eventually get down the field, but Andrew Endicott bounced a 40 yard field goal off the upright. USC marched downfield and got as far as the seven, but Ronald Jones II fumbled and Wisconsin recovered. Despite an encroachment penalty on the first play, Wisconsin went three and out, but Adoree' Jackson returned the punt 56 yards for a touchdown to make it 14-0 USC. The two teams swapped field goals in the final minute to make it a 17-3 game at the break. Sam Darnold was picked off in the red zone early in the second half, but the Badgers couldn't take advantage. They eventually found the end zone thanks to a Corey Clement 46 yard run that set up Bradrick Shaw to punch one in from five yards out and make it 17-10, but the Trojans needed less than two minutes to answer as Ronald Jones II broke a 64 yard run to set up a four yard touchdown pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Badgers would not threaten again, other than Endicott bouncing a 50 yard field goal off the upright, and the Trojans added 10 points off a turnover on downs and an interception to reach the final margin.

Ronald Jones II had 18 carries for 183 yards for USC, Sam Darnold completed 17 of 29 passes for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick, and the Trojan defense recorded three sacks. Alex Hornibrook did not complete the game after going 14-30 through the air for 210 yards, and the Badgers were unable to take advantage of 155 yards on 32 carries from Corey Clement or 10 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown from Bradrick Shaw.

To see the updated bracket, click here. 

Photo by Tyler Smith (Getty Images)

So, other than a stunner in South Carolina, most of the first round was chalk, which was to be expected. So on Friday, USC will get another crack at Alabama, this time in Tuscaloosa, Western Michigan will have to continue its quest for a perfect season in Columbus, Oklahoma gets a second home game thanks to the Western Kentucky upset, and Washington will host Michigan.

It's four interesting matchups and some good possible games coming up on New Years Eve pending Friday's results. I'll try to keep an eye on the stats as well so I can hand out a Death to the BCS Playoffs MVP award after the title game.

Check back early next week for the results of the quarterfinals!