2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

Wow. Okay, now comes the fun part.

Since Week 6, I've been building mock brackets for this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs. It's been a relatively easy ride so far, but things are about to become much more complicated given all of the losses this past week. It's meant a tradeoff of first place teams in multiple conferences and it will require a rearranging of at large teams going in.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, it's pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs is the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a more equitable college football playoff system (where the current system is an improvement, but not enough of one) where we have a 16 team field. 10 of the spots go automatically to the champions of each FBS conference, then the rest of the field is filled with at large bids. The 16 teams are seeded and set up in a standard bracket. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeded team, so getting a top eight seed guarantees you home field in round one, a top four seed guarantees it for two rounds, and a top two seed means you won't have to leave home until the title game in Pasadena.

So how do we decide the at large teams, and what's the seeding process? In my borrowing of their system, I work as the sole member of a selection committee, but I use multiple metrics to help build the field. The decisions are made with seven metrics in mind: Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics kind of organically mesh together, with the computer rankings inserted to help offset any bias I may have while also bringing margin of victory into play.

So with all of this in mind, after much thought, here is the latest mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

1. Alabama (10-0, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 58, PP2: 24.80, aPP: 58, SAG: 1, ROTH: 1, AMSTS: 1. (LW: 1)
2. Ohio State (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 50, PP2: 21.11, aPP: 48, SAG: 2, ROTH: 3, AMSTS: 2. (LW: 4)
3. Clemson (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 3, PP1: 50, PP2: 23.11, aPP: 46, SAG: 5, ROTH: 5, AMSTS: 4. (LW: 2)
4. Michigan (9-1, Big Ten "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 47, PP2: 19.22, aPP: 43, SAG: 3, ROTH: 2, AMSTS: 3. (LW: 3)
5. Louisville (9-1, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 3, PP1: 39, PP2: 14.44, aPP: 38, SAG: 4, ROTH: 6, AMSTS: 5. (LW: 6)
6. Washington (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 34, PP2: 12.89, aPP: 31, SAG: 6, ROTH: 4, AMSTS: 6. (LW: 5)
7. Western Michigan (10-0, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 38, PP2: 11.60, aPP: 38, SAG: 22, ROTH: 12, AMSTS: 7. (LW: 7)
8. Wisconsin (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 38, PP2: 16.75, aPP: 36, SAG: 8, ROTH: 7, AMSTS: 8. (LW: 9)
9. Boise State (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 8, PP1: 42, PP2: 13.44, aPP: 39, SAG: 29, ROTH: 21, AMSTS: 10. (LW: NR)
10. Washington State (8-2, Pac 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 33, PP2: 13.63, aPP: 30, SAG: 11, ROTH: 13, AMSTS: 17. (LW: NR)
11. Oklahoma (8-2, Big XII "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 32, PP2: 11.38, aPP: 29, SAG: 10, ROTH: 23, AMSTS: 14. (LW: 12)
12. Nebraska (8-2, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 34, PP2: 13.25, aPP: 31, SAG: 30, ROTH: 15, AMSTS: 16. (LW: 11)
13. Troy (8-1, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 28, PP2: 11.25, aPP: 27, SAG: 62, ROTH: 28, AMSTS: 15. (LW: NR)
14. San Diego State (9-1, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 25, PP2: 7.67, aPP: 20, SAG: 38, ROTH: 49, AMSTS: 29. (LW: NR)
15. Temple (7-3, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 30, PP2: 13.14, aPP: 19, SAG: 44, ROTH: 45, AMSTS: 39. (LW: 14)
16. Louisiana Tech (8-3, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 7, PP1: 20, PP2: 10.13, aPP: 13, SAG: 65, ROTH: 71, AMSTS: 46. (LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: Auburn (8), Texas A&M (10), Wyoming (13), Appalachian State (15)

This was another tough week, as I had about 10 more teams that I was considering bringing into the equation, but at the end of the day, deciding on the actual field itself wasn't very difficult. I definitely had to battle a little bit over the ordering of the teams, however.

Photo by Kevin C. Cox (Getty Images)

The top of the bracket remains as obvious as it's ever been: Alabama is far and away the best team in the country, and all of my metrics that I primarily use agree (and even their NCSS is excellent). It gets a little trickier to find a #2 seed with the nation having just two undefeated teams in total now. I can't justify bringing up Western Michigan to take the other spot based solely on their 10-0 record, so instead we get a rising team in Ohio State. The Buckeyes were my #4 seed last week, and this week the computers love them and they have high Playoff Points scores, so Columbus will host three playoff games as well. From there, Clemson, and Michigan, who each lost in heartbreaking fashion on Saturday, drop a spot, with the Tigers continuing to hold the edge over the Wolverines. Those two teams will still each get a pair of home playoff games if chalk holds.

Photo by Brandon Pry (Bleacher Report)

With Washington's upset loss, Louisville leapfrogs the Huskies for the #5 seed. Based on the better ACC record, Louisville is technically the ACC "champion" at 7-1 while Clemson is 6-1, but Clemson's head to head win drops the Cardinals below them. The Huskies are still loved by the computers, which is why their loss to USC doesn't hurt them as badly as one might think. Western Michigan maintains its hold on the #7 seed, as I can't justify dropping them any lower, and the unbeaten team should get at least one game at home this postseason. That leaves Wisconsin, who have bounced back nicely from losses to Michigan and Ohio State, both seeded above them, to become the third Big Ten team in the top eight, and while the argument could be made to bump Wisconsin up a spot, their two losses keep them only moving up a single spot.

Photo by James Snook (USA TODAY Sports)

Boise State makes its triumphant reentry into the Death to the BCS Playoffs as our #9 seed with Wyoming's loss, though the Broncos are an at large team. Their very high Playoff Points numbers, as well as a win over a conference "champion" give them the road trip to Madison in the first round in this mock. That head to head win drops Washington State, who is undefeated in Pac 12 play and thus gets the auto bid, down to the #10 seed as we welcome them into these playoffs for the first time ever. Meanwhile, looking at Oklahoma's numbers finally gets them out of the #12 seed and up a spot to #11, with Nebraska falling down a spot to take their place. Neither team really has a signature win, but Oklahoma played Ohio State closer, so the Sooners get the edge over the Cornhuskers in this one.

Photo by Allyson Lamb (Appalachian State Strategic Comm.)

This leaves us with four conference champions to fill out the bracket. Troy returns after a one week hiatus thanks to their win over Appalachian State, and they even move up a spot from where they were two weeks ago. At 8-1, assuming they win out they should be in decent shape to possibly even move up more and avoid the gauntlet at the top of the bracket. Next, after weeks of considering them I welcome San Diego State to the field as they are the only team who hasn't lost a Mountain West matchup yet. Their Playoff Point numbers leave a little something to be desired, but the computers are higher on them than they are my #15 seed in Temple, and the fact that Temple has three losses also hurts the Owls' cause. Temple does have a decent PP1 showing, but a lower aPP. It's still enough to give them a significant edge over my Conference USA champ in Louisiana Tech, who is easily the worst team in the field and as such they get rewarded for their temporary hold on the league title with a trip to Tuscaloosa in the first round.

Photographer uncredited (photo from FoxSports.com)

There wasn't a lot of deciding that needed to be done with regards to who got the final at large berth. Texas A&M and Auburn both just lost their third game of the season, and I can't justify a three loss team getting an at large berth, not with several one and two loss tams still on the table. West Virginia, Utah, Colorado, Navy, Houston, Florida, and South Florida are all on the outside looking in, but all are still in consideration for if somebody slips up in the final weeks of the season. I didn't really look super closely at putting any of these teams in given Boise State's high Playoff Point count and decent computer rankings, even though teams like Colorado are ranked higher. That big Boise State win, combined with only one loss, is enough for me.

I should note that, were they eligible, Penn State would probably top all of those teams on the outside looking in for an at large berth, given their incredibly high rankings pretty much across the board. Unfortunately, given their permanent ban from the Death to the BCS Playoff, all they can do is serve as a comparison point and award points to other teams. This also means that, should Penn State end up winning the Big Ten East, whoever wins the West would get the Big Ten's automatic bid to the Death to the BCS Playoffs. We had a similar issue last year in the ACC where North Carolina was disqualified due to playing a pair of FCS games, but they made the ACC title game against Clemson. Fortunately, that ended up not mattering, but it could matter this year in the Big Ten. If you don't like it, stop drinking the cult's Kool-Aid.

So for this week, that's it. The mock bracket is set, but it could completely change once again next week if more chaos happens. In the meantime, I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the Week 12 schedule in preparation for another set of looking at results and setting up another mock bracket as we near my setup of the official one!