2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Happy Halloween from Confessions of a Sportscaster! Unfortunately, this morning I don't really have anything scary cooked up for you. Instead, I'm back to looking at college football schedules.

The fun part is that tonight begins the reign of MACtion as we get our middle of the week football fix. Last week had a little MACtion on Thursday night, but not the Tuesday-Wednesday mix of stuff that's fun. There are a handful of Thursday games though to take a look at as well.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at what we've got coming up.

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I think this past weekend was the sort of weekend Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan had in mind when they penned the masterpiece you see to your left. There was a ton of chaos, and so many games with playoff impact were played that invoked said chaos. It's further proof that the playoff system they envisioned enhanced the regular season rather than dilute it.

If you haven't read this book, I highly recommend it. But their basic premise for an ideal playoff is this: 16 teams, with each conference getting an automatic bid for its champion, and the field being filled by deserving at large squads. I love the premise, and as such have tried to fill a bracket with their methodology for the last few years. Here's the best part about it though: higher seeds host for the first three rounds, so we're playing games in iconic stadiums on campus in front of partisan crowds instead of neutral site stadiums that may end up half empty. As such, the regular season really matters, because the difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed is a second home game.

The tricky part comes in how to fill the field, and then how to seed it. To do that, I use a number of metrics. I begin with a glance at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which is a rough look at how tough of a non-conference slate teams are playing (basically, are they playing road games against Power Five opponents or a bunch of home games against Group of Five teams or FCS opponents). At the end of the day though, results matter. That's where First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjust Playoff Points (aPP) come in: they go beyond just a won-lost record and figure out how good the teams they beat truly are. Finally, to help reduce bias on my part and to give additional data points, I consult computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), a UCLA staff member using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to build the playoff field.

I'm at the point now where I do a mock bracket every week, at least once I can build it without screwing any undefeated teams out of a spot. With a number of them falling this past week, it may create some at large headaches, but we'll see how it goes!

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

I'm running a little behind this week. With Halloween tomorrow and hosting a family party for several of Kristen's and my parent friends, other than scoreboard glancing I saw pretty much no college football over the weekend and didn't get to poring through results until today.

There was chaos over the weekend though, and the numbers we had last week will probably be vastly different this week.

So this morning, I'm going through all the results, and below you will see how each conference ranks in average win totals and the various forms of Playoff Points. If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 8

We're nearing the halfway point of the season

I'm pretty sure last week Adam and I set a record for groupthink, and we ended up splitting the two games we disagreed on. That keeps him a couple games ahead of me on the year. Meanwhile, Bulls Confidential blogger Geoffrey Clark padded his lead a little bit this week with a 2-1 week on hero picks. It's brought his average back down to earth a little bit, but he's still excelled in those games. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. I share that primarily because the ESPN standings are off by a couple games on Adam's side since he picked wrong on there back in Week 1. Fortunately for him, the official standings are based on the picks we make here.

This week, all semblance of groupthink is gone as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 13. He is in California this week on government business, but still found time in between his work and visiting local breweries to send a short set of picks.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

We only have a few short weeks left before we get to Championship Weekend, but there are still plenty of non-conference games left to be played. As such, it's time to take a look at the schedule again.

Last week saw us settle into what the pecking order basically is in terms of this metric: the Group of Five conference at the top, then the Power Five below them. Of course, some things can change, and they will.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at the schedule!

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Mock Bracket

We're still a little over a month away from Championship Saturday, which means I can't fully prepare an actual playoff bracket quite yet. But it's good to get the practice in, and in an alternate universe where this is the actual playoff format, it's good practice for the selection committee. And so, I undertake my third mock of the season.

This is a playoff system outlined in the book pictured to the left, written a few years back by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. The premise of the book is simple: the old BCS system of deciding a national champion was elitist, possibly illegal, and patently unfair. So they came up with a fairer one that enhances the regular season: 16 teams, made up of the 10 conference champions (11 when the book was written), with the rest of the field filled by at large selections. They play with home field advantage for the first three rounds, making the season really mean something, and meaning that my seeding of this tournament needs to be perfect.

To help decide the at large teams and seed the field, I look over scores and try to watch games if I can, but because I can't watch every game, I use several metrics to help me out. To a minor degree I check a team's non conference schedule in the form of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS). At the end of the day though, I'm more concerned about results, which is why hopefully you read today's Playoff Points rankings, where I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively). That's basically a look at win totals of defeated opponents in a few different ways. You can view a full outline of how that metric works in my season introductory post. Then, to ensure that I eliminate any possible bias I may have, I also check three different computer rankings that factor in margin of victory: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors are all kind of organically combined to build out a bracket, which you can view the newest mock of after the jump.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 8

We continue on with our look at the 2017 college football season with a look back at the numbers from Week 8.

You've probably noted by now that by and large, I don't really go into individual results of games. This post takes into focus conference averages of win totals and more of an in depth look into how good teams actually are.

With these numbers in mind, combined with a few others, later today I'll come back with my third Death to the BCS Playoffs mock bracket. But for now, here are the updated Playoff Point numbers. In case you need a reminder of how these work, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

Overall, it wasn't a great week for the coalition, though I personally can't complain.

For the first time since Week 4 of last year, we had a sweep, as I took all three of the games Adam and I disputed. Unfortunately, I can't be fooled by the ESPN standings; some entry errors on Adam's part early in the year have him with two more wins than the site gives him credit for. Even with that though, he's now one game back of Geoffrey Clark for first place in the group. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. The most eye-popping stat to me: Geoff is 9-2 in hero picks. That'll usually get you ahead.

Adam is actually back up in Chicago this week, and on Monday we got to carpool home from work and get into general sports yak. Adam said that he was overdue for his bad week, and now that it's come and gone, he hinted that it may be time for one of his weeks of going insane with his picks. He didn't actually go insane though, and groupthink must really have come into play here. We only have two disputed games out of 15 this week, which I'm pretty sure is a record.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 8

We're halfway through the college football regular season now, with just seven weeks left to play. Only six of these weeks will actually involve full slates of games, with Week 14 being Championship Week. I'll get to that when the time comes though.

For now, we're focused on the upcoming schedule for Week 8. With conference play in full swing, there are very few non-conference games on the schedule, but they happen. With four independent teams, there's always going to be at least a few games that fit this banner. And that's before we get to Nick Saban Is A Coward Week, which is coming up in about a month.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at the schedule!

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 7 Mock Bracket

Last week I had just enough room in my first mock bracket of the season to squeeze in every eligible unbeaten team. And then, go figure, a bunch of them fell like flies.

This complicates the Death to the BCS Playoff picture, even though we still have a good month and a half of season left to play. Teams will separate from the pack a little bit more, and hopefully things will become easier, but in the meantime, I need the practice for bracket building.

So here's a refresher on how this works. The ten conference champions, along with six at large selections, will be seeded 1-16, with higher seeds getting home field advantage for three rounds. To pick out the at large teams and seed the field, I use several of my own metrics, focusing a little on Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) and more so on First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively) to help. Then, to help reduce bias, I use computer rankings that factor in margin of victory created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all get kind of organically combined to build the field. The Rothman rankings are up this week, so unlike last week, all three computer rankings will be under consideration.

So without further ado, let's make a mock bracket.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 7

I was waiting for the chaotic week. And go figure: the first week after I start doing mock brackets, all hell breaks loose.

I'll delve into how this affects the Death to the BCS Playoffs later today; I need time to look over the numbers. But we have to get the numbers first, and that's where this comes in.

You can view last week's rankings here. If you need a refresher on how each of the various Playoffs Points scores are calculated, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 6

The coalition returns for more NFL picks, and now that we're a little ways into the season, I'm starting to get into the swing of things.

Through the first four weeks, I had made one hero pick and lost it. Last week I made up for it, going hero five times and winning three of them. It propelled me to winning my first week against Adam, taking four of our six disputed games, but Adam still holds a fairly solid lead at this point. However, he's out of first place as Geoffrey Clark took over the top spot with a couple more successful hero picks. He's 9-1 on those picks, and it's why he holds a narrow lead. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here, and our ESPN standings here, though bear in mind that Adam has two more points than ESPN says he does.

We move onto another 14 game week with the set of byes in place. Groupthink prevailed this round, as Adam and I disagree on only three games this time.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 7

We're into the full swing of conference play, and the Sun Belt seems to be aiming to steal some of MACtion's thunder here in October. But MACtion doesn't come for another few weeks, so I guess it's all okay.

Last week saw a rare week of a conference getting a negative score with the Big Ten's lone non-conference game being an FCS game for Indiana. It's kind of late in the season for it, but it's not quite to the level of Nick Saban Is A Coward Week, which I will hype up until it comes. This week, there shouldn't be another negative week as far as I know... at least, I hope not. If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post.

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 6 Mock Bracket

Over the last few years I have come to discover a pattern. By Week 6, enough teams have at least one loss on their resume, which allows me to start thinking about playoff brackets.

The current system set up by the FBS conference commissioners is a decent start. It's a definite improvement over the garbage that was the BCS. If you think the BCS wasn't all that bad, go read the book pictured to the left authored by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan, then come back and tell me with a straight face that the system was all right. If you do, I will call you a liar, because the BCS was a joke.

And that's what inspired an idea by these three men: building a more equitable playoff for college football, like what is run in the lower divisions of the NCAA. That's basically what I aim to build here.

If you missed my season introductory post where I explained their playoff system, here's the CliffNotes version: 16 teams (all ten conference champions plus six at large) seeded 1-16, with home field advantage granted to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. In their system they had a selection committee, which is a role I've taken by proxy for several years now, and tried to build a bracket based on their specifications.

To do that, I use a number of metrics. To a minor degree, Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) gets factored in, though its impact is minimal when it comes to filling and seeding the field. More important are First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively), which dig beyond the won-loss record to get an idea of just how good a team actually is.

Now, I don't want to appear biased, so I also use computer rankings to help me determine if I'm making the right choices, but the computer rankings need to be good. I have found three that factor in margin of victory, which is kind of important when we're trying to figure out how good teams actually are. For the purposes of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, I use Jeff Sagarin's (SAG) model, the late David Rothman's (ROTH) model as compiled by a UCLA faculty member, and the rankings from All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). Currently the Rothman model has no data for 2017, so I'm sticking with just the Sagarin and All My Sports Teams Suck models for now, which is enough to start.

These factors all kind of organically combine to build the field of 16, which will be built out below.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 6

Saturday saw a lot of chaos in college football, which I love. It means that the order of things gets thrown out of wack, and forces everyone to look differently at the playoff picture.

I'm not quite there yet, because after last week, there were still too many undefeated teams to build out a mock playoff bracket. That may change after today, but I need to run the numbers to be sure.

Below I will run through the average win totals for each conference, plus the independents collected as their own "conference" for the purposes of these rankings. I will also update the Playoff Point totals and give each conference average for those as well. A primer on how exactly these metrics work can be found here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 5

I had a good week last week as the coalition continued its quest to correctly pick NFL games against the spread. Unfortunately, Adam was better for the fourth straight week. He took three of our five disputed games... and even that took a ridiculous finish for me to salvage a second one. But more on that in a bit.

Through 63 games and four weeks I currently sit in third place in the coalition thanks to my dad having back to back awful weeks. Adam sits in first place a game ahead of Geoffrey Clark, who has gone hero eight times and gotten seven of them right. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. You can also check our full standings page here, just bear in mind that Adam has two more correct games than what ESPN says he does based on his picks here.

This week, we're onto the byes so there are fewer points up for grabs. Adam and I disagree on six games of the fourteen on the docket. Let's get to it!

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 6

We're officially playing games in October now, which means we're well into the college football season. Conference play is also largely underway at this point, which means there's not much left for me to do in this one.

However, there are still the independent teams who need to play games, and we have the occasional interconference game that takes place. We also still have Nick Saban Is A Coward Week and Rivalry Week on the docket, where some major changes will take place.

But for now, I'm going to look at the schedule for this upcoming week and make whatever adjustments to each school's NCSS score, then average them out by conference. I will highlight all non-conference games with each league's score below.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, it is explained in my season introductory post.

COAS Hands Out 2017 MLB Awards

We interrupt the mostly football-related postings on Confessions of a Sportscaster to bring you another annual feature that I like to do, because running through stats is fun, especially when you don't have to do all the compiling.

It was a pretty busy summer for baseball here on COAS, as I spent the spring and summer working on a much more massive Tournament of Champions than I'd attempted in years prior, but it all worked out in the end when after 1,422 games the 2016 Chicago Cubs took home the Championship of Champions. I'm also hoping that the 2017 Cubs can pull off a repeat and give me a bonus title on top of the one from last year.

But before they can do that, and before any playoff games taint the sample, I want to go through the 2017 Major League Baseball season and, as I have done in years past, make my votes for the four most major awards in each league.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 5

Five weeks are in the books, and with another week completed it's time to take a look at the results.

Last week was the final week of mass non-conference games as pretty much all of the Power Five leagues have begun conference play in earnest. I'll have more about the non-conference schedules tomorrow.

Below I will rank the average scores in terms of wins and the various Playoff Points numbers for each conference through five weeks. If you need a refresher of how these metrics work, you can view that in my season introductory post.