This past Thursday the actual College Football Playoff played its semifinal games in Miami and Arlington, Texas with Clemson and Alabama playing for the actual national title. The question I came into December with was whether or not the simulator would come up with the same matchup or not.
The top two seeds, Clemson and Alabama have taken differing paths to get here, but have made it. Clemson got a good game from San Diego State two weeks ago before needing a late rally to come back and top Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Alabama romped through Arkansas State and Iowa the past two Saturdays to host another game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Clemson's opponent this week pulled an upset, but not a surprising one; Ohio State made relatively quick work of Houston before edging out the Sooners in Norman. On the other side, the Crimson Tide get to host this year's Cinderella in Bowling Green. The MAC champion Falcons went into East Lansing and not only knocked off Michigan State, they beat them handily in round one before going to Fort Worth and jumping all over TCU early to get to this semifinal stage, something that should enhance football all across the country as athletes realize they don't have to go to the flagship schools for exposure and a shot at a national title.
So to determine our paring that will go not to Glendale, but to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl (because let's face it, it's the perfect setting for the biggest game of the year), we are going back to the simulations. Home field advantage is going to our top two seeds, and the weather from kickoff time is going to be taken into account in an effort to make this as realistic as possible. Don Best's handicapping website has been keeping track of player availability, and I use this to minimize the presence of injured or dismissed players from the games (though it's not perfect; I'm pretty sure a guy who tore his ACL or something had a pick-six in a game some time in the past two weeks). For offense though, it usually works well enough to minimize the impact of guys who wouldn't realistically be playing. With those factors in mind, I simulate these games as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up a title game.
3pm Game
Game 1: (2)ALA 41, (14)BGSU 23
Game 2: (2)ALA 21, (14)BGSU 20
The clock struck midnight, but Bowling Green made Alabama earn it. Jake Coker threw a pick on his first pass attempt of the game, but the Alabama special teams blocked a 30 yard field goal attempt. The Tide went to the ground early on the next drive, but Coker was picked again, and this time the Falcons were able to turn it into a field goal and a 3-0 lead. Coker figured out his issues on the ensuing drive though, feeding Calvin Ridley for two catches for 57 yards, including an 18 yard touchdown on a screen. The Falcons answered with a 14 play, 69 yard drive capped off by a Gehrig Dieter 10 yard touchdown catch to make it 10-7 Bowling Green. The Tide responded with four straight plays of at least 10 yards to eventually set up an 11 yard touchdown pass to O.J. Howard. The game turned into a field position battle from there, with the Falcons getting the edge and getting a 37 yard field goal late in the half to go into the locker room only down one. The Falcons broke out quickly in the third, with a 65 yard Travis Greene run setting up a four yard touchdown pass to Derek Lee for a 20-14 Bowling Green lead. The Falcons were able to burn some clock, but didn't get another great chance until the fourth quarter, when Coker was picked off again deep in Falcon territory. Bowling Green marched down field, but Tyler Tate missed a 49 yard field goal that would have made it a two possession game. Alabama tried to take advantage, but missed a 50 yard field goal of their own. Alabama would get the ball back with 3:07 left on their own 14, got a 33 yard pass to Kenyan Drake to help set things up, and Coker found Calvin Ridley for a 22 yard catch and run to pay dirt that gave Alabama the lead with 20 seconds to go. Bowling Green was unable to answer, and Alabama advances to the championship game.
Jake Coker completed 24 of 39 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but was nearly done in by three interceptions. Calvin Ridley had six catches for 101 yards and two scores, including the game-winner. Derrick Henry was held to just 78 yards on 20 carries and three catches for 30 yards. On the other side, Matt Johnson threw for 178 yards on 17 of 29 passing for two scores while Travis Greene had 198 yards on 23 carries. Alfonso Mack, James Sanford, and Isaiah Gourdine all had interceptions for the Falcons.
6pm Game
Game 1: (1)CLEM 34, (5)OSU 31
Game 2: (5)OSU 27, (1)CLEM 21
Game 3: (1)CLEM 40, (5)OSU 26
The top seed survives, and we have an exact title game matchup that reality determined. Clemson forced a three and out to start the game, then marched 89 yards in 12 plays, capped off by Deshaun Watson hitting Jordan Leggett from 12 yards out to get the Tigers on the board. Watson threw a pick on his next drive, and the Buckeyes went to work, with Ezekiel Elliott converting a pair of 4th and 1 situations, but then J.T. Barrett fumbled on the first play of the second quarter and Clemson took over. It wasn't until midway through the quarter with good field position that the Buckeyes got moving again, and Jack Willoughby hit a 45 yard field goal to make it 7-3. Clemson went backwards, Ohio State got a fantastic punt return into Clemson territory, and the Buckeyes cashed in on an Elliott four yard touchdown run. The Tigers answered with a 15 play, 71 yard drive resulting in a Leggett two yard touchdown catch that made it 14-10 Clemson right before halftime. The got the ball to start the second half as well, and were able to get into the red zone before stalling, but Greg Huegel hit a 38 yard field goal to make it 17-10. The Buckeyes returned the favor with a 28 yard Willoughby kick, but a solid kick return set up Clemson with a short field, and Wayne Gallman broke free for a 35 yard touchdown run to make it 24-13. The teams traded punts from there until Ohio State got great field position, and Elliott broke a 33 yard touchdown run to make it 24-19, but J.T. Barrett was stopped short on the two point conversion attempt. The Buckeyes then nearly made a key bend-but-don't-break stop on Clemson's ensuing drive, but a facemask penalty deep in their own territory gave Clemson a first down, and Watson hit Deon Cain from 11 yards out to effectively put the game out of reach. Wanting to ensure a dagger, Carlos Watkins sacked J.T. Barrett on the first play of Ohio State's next drive to set up a quick turnover on downs, and Gallman took three straight carries ahead, the last one a three yard touchdown that effectively iced the contest. The Buckeyes would go 77 yards in just 48 seconds for a touchdown by Elliott and pick off Deshaun Watson on the ensuing drive, but they quickly turned it over on downs again, and a 43 yard run by Wayne Gallman flipped the field and iced the game.
Wayne Gallman had a great game, rushing 34 times for 181 yards and two touchdowns while Deshaun Watson completed 20 of 33 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns and adding 77 yards on 21 carries. Watson was picked twice on the evening though. Ezekiel Elliott led the Buckeyes with 25 carries for 144 yards and three scores, but J.T. Barrett had an awful game, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 109 yards. The Tigers converted 12 of 19 third down opportunities, while the Buckeyes went just 4-16, and followed that up with a 2-4 day on fourth down.
To see the updated bracket, click here.
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| Photo by LM Otero (AP) |
I know bowl season was a little disappointing overall, last night's TCU comeback notwithstanding, but the Death to the BCS Playoffs have offered some spectacular games and a couple of thrilling finishes, as well as a Cinderella run that just concluded today, but not without needing a late rally to knock off. Hopefully the Death to the BCS Championship Game, as well as the College Football Playoff's National Championship Game, will provide the entertainment that all true football fans want!
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