Tuesday, December 30, 2014

COAS Hands Out 2014 NFL Awards

256 games are in the books. 32 teams have been narrowed down to 12. In about a month, only one team will remain to stake the claim as best in the NFL. But before we can do any of that, we need to hand out some hardware.

I've had some reasonable success in handing out awards compared to the official results in prior years, though defense is always tough. You can view my picks from 2013 and 2012 at the links provided.

In my work for UKEndzone, I've also been handing out awards at each of the quarter polls in 2014. The first, second, and third quarter awards have only applied to players in the NFC North, as that has been my assigned division, but some of those players will receive votes in these awards as well. Those posts also have some "anti-awards", as it were, primarily to pick on the dumpster fire that is the Chicago Bears franchise. When the awards for the year in the division go live, I will link to it here.

For now, here are my league-wide picks for the major NFL awards.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Hope you all had a Merry Christmas! I'm back to the grind with some football.

The opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs went as expected, for the most part. The top five seeds all advanced, and three lower seeds pulled off the upsets to advance. They all have to go on the road for a second straight week, while the four teams that made the College Football Playoff all get their second straight home game.

So far, I'm actually pretty happy with how things have turned out. In reality, Memphis played poorly but managed a late rally to win in double overtime against BYU before an ugly brawl broke out. They couldn't capitalize on early FSU mistakes in the first round and lost 30-6. Meanwhile, Marshall blew out NIU in Boca Raton, which lends credence to Marshall making it interesting at Ohio State while the Huskies got blown out by Oregon.

Like the first round, this will be a best-of-three simulation in a bit of an effort to minimize luck. Weather conditions around the time of kickoff will be taken into account courtesy of weather.com to make the simulations more accurate. To ensure that any injured players don't impact the proceedings, I check on player statuses from Don Best's handicapping website. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Final Four.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

We've made it to the final week. And somehow, some way... I'm still hanging on.

Adam and I saw the greatest example of groupthink in quite a while last week, and we split the four games we did disagree on. With that split, I hold on to my one game lead with sixteen left to play. However, overall Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark maintains his lead despite a 3-13 week.

The way the Pick 'Em works is that Adam and I each do our picks separately once they go live at 2pm every Tuesday, but he sends his to me to put into the system. With this kind of "home field" advantage, if I really wanted to I could just replicate all of Adam's picks and coast to victory, but what kind of victory would that be? I'm doing this the honorable way and making my picks as I normally would. And if I fall... I fall.

Adam does have a lot to play for this week: if he finishes with more correct picks for the season than me, he gets a guest post here on COAS on any topic he chooses. I don't really get anything if I win, other than maintaining the sanctity of COAS from the prying words of Bears fans.

In this final round, Adam and I disagree on four of the 16 games. This rules out a tie, and means with a split of the games, I win for the season. If Adam wins the week, he wins the season. Good luck to you, sir.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a very Merry Christmas! Let's begin!

Sunday, December 21, 2014

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

We took a couple weeks to allow for final exams, a week of physical rest, and all that jazz. Now, it's time to decide a champion on the field. Or at least, a champion on a simulated computer program since that's the closest we can get to having an actual champion (though this year's championship formula is better than the BCS).

Yesterday was the scheduled day for the opening round of the playoffs, played on campuses from Tuscaloosa to Eugene; Waco to Columbus. Ten conference champions and six fortunate at-large teams got to battle it out for a shot at a national title. After yesterday, only half remain.

In case you aren't familiar with how the Death to the BCS Playoffs work, I'm running this like I have the past couple years. Higher seeds host all the games this weekend, and I am taking weather into account from official conditions in the host cities around kickoff time. Weather data is taken from weather.com. I also take injury reports from Don Best's handicapping website to make sure that injured players don't impact the outcome (as best as I can, anyway). From there, I simulate each matchup as a best-of-three in an effort to get a more accurate picture of who would win that matchup and eliminate luck as a larger factor. The "clinching" game will be the official result for the purposes of the tournament. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some playoff football!

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Game Notes: University of Dubuque @ North Central College (12/19/14)

Final Score
NCC 110, Dubuque 93

Game Summary
After a long road trip, including a couple games in California, the Cardinals (10-0) came back home and struggled early as the Spartans (4-4) opened with a 10-3 run. The Cardinals would work their way back from a deficit as big as 11 to take a brief 38-37 lead answered by a Dubuque 7-0 run. North Central closed the gap, and trailed 51-50 at the half. The Spartans were able to keep pace for a few minutes in the second half, but saw a 66-62 lead vanish in a 20-2 Cardinal run. The Cardinals would lead by no fewer than eight the rest of the way.

Key Stats
  • Tess Godhardt (NCC): 6-12 FG, 11-12 FT; 23 pts, 13 reb (9 off), 3 stl. Tess was a major part of the comeback effort in the second half, as she was able to find room inside against a tiring defense. She also dominated at the foul line, which continues to be a great sign for this team.
  • Anita Sterling (NCC): 4-9 FG (0-4 3PT), 1-1 FT; 9 pts, 8 reb (4 off), 1 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk. Anita had a great floor game all around (see more below). She was able to find room down low, including a three point play, and played great defense. She's definitely improved from last year.
  • Dubuque 3PT: 11-26 (42.3%). This is mainly what kept the Spartans in the game, especially in the first half. They shot 7-10 in the opening stanza (Meggie Schmidt was 3-4 and Jenna Kotas 3-5) before regression to the mean hit, and hit hard. I called it at halftime: 70 percent from three is unsustainable. Their 25 percent clip in the second half proves that.
North Central System Watch
  • Dubuque Turnovers: 29. Many of these were errant passes, plus a few travels. NCC came away with 17 steals, led by Maryssa Cladis' four. 
  • NCC 3PT: 19-75 (25.3%). The Cardinals didn't start great, missing their first few threes, but they started to fall as the game went along. The 20-2 run included a few threes, but not a ton. Many shots ended up short.
  • NCC Charges Drawn: 3. Anita Sterling drew a pair a few minutes in on consecutive possessions, completely changing the tone of Dubuque's attack. Tess Godhardt also picked one up towards the end of the game.
Final Thoughts
I maintain that "Nobody Believes in Us" is a powerful force. With today's win, NCC has won a program high ten games to start the season, and this was a good win. After struggling early, they settled in and Dubuque's threes stopped falling. Simply put, Dubuque got worn out, something that seems to happen in this system.

North Central is off next week, then closes out the non conference schedule at Eureka on the 30th. Illinois Wesleyan awaits the start of CCIW play in two weeks. 

Thursday, December 18, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 16

We're down to the final two weeks of the regular season and HOLY CRAP, ADAM, WHERE DID YOU COME FROM?!

My lead that I've held pretty firmly since about Week 3 or 4 is all but gone. Just a single game separates us now, and Grabbing the Bull Horns' Geoffrey Clark has all but locked up winning the group this year. But for the love of all that is holy, I need to turn this nonsense around, fast.

Somehow, I still have a shot at finishing at least .500, which would be good, but I'll be fine finishing short of that if it means beating Adam, who took six of the eight disputed games last week to make this a photo finish.

There are a couple Saturday games this week in the NFL ranks since the college ranks are off this week even though the Death to the BCS Playoffs will kick off on Saturday. It's not too late to get your predictions for the tournament in. You can sign up for a free account on bracketmaker.com and make your predictions here. Sunday morning I'll try to run through the results from Round 1.

Meanwhile, in the NFL ranks, we finally get some groupthink! Adam and I only disagree on four of this week's 16 games. This will end up putting a lot of the pressure on Week 17. But that's next week. Let's get to the Week 16 picks.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Flying Under the Radar

We're a few weeks into the college basketball season now. The really good teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack. But what about a women's team that plays in Naperville that has had little history to hang its hat on save a national title in 1983?

The North Central women's basketball team is off to a historic start in 2014-15, and close out a five game road trip tonight at Monmouth. After a pair of 7-4 starts to the last two seasons, this team is off to a program-best 8-0 start with three games to go before CCIW play begins.

This is Year Three of Michelle Roof implementing a Grinnell-style system at North Central. After a decent Year One saw the team sneak into the CCIW Tournament, most numbers improved in Year Two except for the win total. So far, Year Three has been excellent. Through eight games, the Cardinals are averaging over 100 points per game. Three point shooting so far is back down around Year One levels (26.3 percent), but individual players are having monster years, most notably Miranda Grizaffi (10.8 PPG, 43.8 percent from beyond the arc). The major difference from the last two years has been the inside presence.

The last two years saw Larynn Shumaker show off impressive footwork to beat interior defenders and get some tough points. Shumaker is not with the team this year, and a couple players have almost made some people forget about her. The big landing in the offseason was the transfer of Naperville native Jamie Cuny from D-II's University of Illinois-Springfield. Coach Roof raved about her before I got to see any action, and she hasn't disappointed through eight games. While she hasn't been a major offensive force (8.4 PPG on 30% shooting), the 6'2" forward is a force of nature inside. Coming into the season, the school's single season record for blocked shots was 52, set by Lindsey Feris back in 1997-98. Cuny is already fifth through just eight games. Granted, more than half of those have come in two games where she broke the school's record for blocks (she had eight to help give NCC its first Tip Off Tournament title since 2008, then had ten to notch the program's first ever triple double in the win over Carroll last week), but her mere presence in the paint has been enough to change the scope of games.

They've needed a go-to scorer though, and one has emerged in senior Tess Godhardt. Godhardt transferred from Elmhurst last year, but by CCIW rules was only allowed to play in the final four games of the season. Other than helping lead the Cardinals to their first win at Illinois Wesleyan for the first time since 2006, she didn't have much impact last season. In her first full season as a Cardinal, she's been incredible, leading the team in scoring (18.4 PPG), including dropping a school-record 40 points in that Millsaps win (a performance which earned her Tip Off Tournament MVP honors). Maybe the juju from her pair of state titles at Hinckley-Big Rock are rubbing off on this team.


All of this success so far... and yet, there's been no national recognition for this team. I didn't expect there to be a lot of preseason hype outside the halls of Merner Field and the confines of Confessions of a Sportscaster (and the latter only because I am an unabashed homer), so I don't fault whoever the voters for the D3hoops.com Top 25 are. Then randomly, North Central picked up some voter recognition in the Week 2 poll. Last week they fell off completely, and they remain off every ballot this week. Apparently the fact that this is the last undefeated team in the CCIW means nothing to people.

Initially, I was mad last week that there were no votes. Then I thought about it a little bit. "Nobody Believes in Us" is a powerful force. This year's team is a team that is scoring at a similar, if not better, clip than the past two editions. On top of that, they're finding ways to close out tight games, and they aren't letting deficits keep them down. Sure, there are CCIW teams that scare me: Wheaton is ranked #14 in the country and has thrived so far against the system. North Park is a team on the rise, and Illinois Wesleyan is always a tough battle. But this team has the makings to not only survive the gauntlet, but thrive in it. And right now, people aren't talking about this team. This system was disrespected by the Carroll play by play team last week during the game, a system that beat their team. It's giving this Cardinal team a chip on their shoulder. I like it. It's part of what's gotten them to 8-0 so far. Hopefully, they'll take care of business tonight at Monmouth and come home Friday night for me to go back to yelling "THREEEEEEEEEEEEE!" en route to another victory and a notice to the CCIW:

Nobody believes in us. But we're coming for you.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

I'm not going to say panic mode has set in at COAS Headquarters... but panic is setting in at COAS Headquarters.

That gap between myself and Adam that had been pretty comfortable for a month or two is narrowing... a lot. With three weeks to go, Adam is easily in shouting distance, and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark added to his overall lead.

Adam has figured out some of the NFL's nuances, leading to his taking six of the seven disputed games from last week. I need to turn things around fast. Of course, I've been saying that for a few weeks now. Now it's crunch time.

Before we get to the Week 15 picks, I'd like to take a moment to plug some college football stuff. The 2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs begin on December 20th. You can view the official bracket here, and one of the features BracketMaker.com allows is a prediction system for created tournaments. An account here is free, and you can visit this page to submit a prediction for how the 15 games of the tournament go.

Shameless plug is over. In NFL ranks, Adam and I disagree on eight of the 16 games this week. I'm scared. Let's see how this goes.

Monday, December 8, 2014

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

It all started with an idea. Three sportswriters hated the Bowl Championship Series and all the corruption it stood for, so they set out to write a book. That book, pictured to the left, inspired a poor North Central College graduate who spent three of his four years in college watching his school's football team make a true playoff to action. After starting a small sports blog using the free system Google provides, a playoff system based on that book came to life. 2011 saw the first Death to the BCS Playoffs come to fruition. In the time since, that blogger found full time employment, got married, and made tweaks to the system, running playoffs in 2012 and 2013. This year, he's at it again.

Okay, I wanted to tell a dramatic third-person story about myself. Sue me. Either way, the book co-written by Wetzel, Peter and Passan left a mark. They never left instruction as to how the teams in the field would be selected and seeded, so I took that responsibility upon myself. Overall, I think I'm happy with how the process took shape this year.

I've spent the last 15 weeks looking at schedules, then looking at results, inputting data into a Google doc, then consulting some computer rankings in an effort to not be totally biased on my own rankings. For the past nine, I've been making some mock brackets. Several teams have fallen from those mocks over the past couple months. If you want to refer back to the entire season's worth of data, you can find it all on the COAS Tournaments page. It also contains posts and brackets from the last two years of playoffs for historical purposes.

So this time, I put everything together for real. The system for it remains the same, however. Sixteen teams make the field: all ten conference champions, plus six at-large teams. These teams are then seeded with the help of a lot of data. The following metrics are all considered, and will be included with the playoff teams:
  • Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS): A metric that determines how strong each team's non-conference slate was. Teams are rewarded for playing Power conference foes and/or playing on the road, while being penalized for playing down a division.
  • First Degree/Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1/PP2): A metric that determines how good each team really is. Win totals of defeated teams are added together to determine First Degree Playoff Points, and the average PP1 of each team's vanquished foes is calculated to determine Second Degree Playoff Points.
  • David Rothman Computer Rankings (ROTH): The late David Rothman created a computer ranking during the BCS days, but wasn't allowed to use it because of the fact that margin of victory was a part of his formula. He made his formula public domain, and a staff member at UCLA calculates the rankings weekly.
  • Jeff Sagarin Computer Rankings (SAG): Jeff Sagarin had a computer formula in use for the BCS, but had to change the formula he submitted to take out margin of victory. He still calculated that, however, and released that with his BCS rankings. The margin of victory-included rankings are used here.
With the help of these sets of numbers, I will try to seed this playoff as fairly as I can. If possible, I will try to avoid any rematches throughout the tournament, though this is more important in the early rounds. The other fun factor about the Death to the BCS Playoffs the authors of the book came up with: give home field advantage to the higher seeds through the first three rounds. This puts importance on non-conference scheduling, and makes margin of victory important to a point.

So, enough talk. It's time to unveil the 2014 Death to the BCS Playoff Field.


Sunday, December 7, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 15

If you're reading this, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has already made their choices for the inaugural playoff. But what about the better system? You know, the one where if you win your conference you're automatically in, and games are played on campuses for three rounds? We're going to find out soon.

The Committee released its final rankings earlier today, and they may or may not agree with what my final decision for the Death to the BCS Playoffs are going to be. First though, we need to run through the results from the weekend one final time.

I think last week I made decent decisions with the mock bracket, and amazingly, we didn't have any upsets in any conference title games. That will make my process for tomorrow's unveiling of the bracket that much easier.

As for Playoff Points, there aren't going to be many changes this week. Every game was in conference, and like I mentioned in looking at Playoff Points last week, conference championship games will not factor into Playoff Points, out of fairness to the American Athletic, Big XII, and Sun Belt conferences. It creates a more level playing field for when I decide seedings.

So for one final time this season, let's crunch some numbers. In case you need one last refresher on how this system works, you can refer back to my Week 1 Playoff Points post.


Thursday, December 4, 2014

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 14

The coalition returns with another batch of NFL picks against the spread!

I'm starting to worry about my lead. I'm up to four straight subpar weeks, with this last one being the worst. Adam ended up taking five of our seven disputed games last week, so my lead is down to ten games with four weeks to go. I need a spark. Desperately. I'm no longer in first place among our group; that honor belongs to Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark. I'm only four back of him though, so things could change! I must believe!

This week, Adam and I disagree on seven of the 16 games on the slate. Let's try to right this ship. I need it for my lead to remain safe.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 15

The final week of the regular season is upon us!

Only fourteen games separate us from the end of the supposed "most sacred" regular season in sports. I've refuted it enough times on here that I won't do so again. Instead, I'm going to shift the focus to the games on the field.

At this point, all non-conference games are complete. Army and Navy still have to play their game in a couple weeks, but the two teams have a combined ten wins, so neither is a threat to make the Death to the BCS Playoffs. Most of the 28 teams who are playing between Thursday and Saturday however, are. Some need this win to get in. Others are likely safe without, if this week's mock bracket has any indication.

Since there are no non-conference games left, I'll copy my NCSS rankings list from last week. These are the official numbers and are used with the assumption that I didn't mess something up somewhere. Listed with each conference today are the remaining games in conference that have an impact on the conference championship. To follow, I'll make some final comments about NCSS.


Monday, December 1, 2014

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 14 Edition

I get to do one last practice bracket before I have to put together the real thing. Good thing, too.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has had some disagreements, which are to be expected, but they've done a decent job so far this year, including last week, even if it disagreed with my last bracket. Looking back, I feel like I may have goofed on that one. Fortunately, it was just a mock.

In case you aren't familiar with how Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan set up their playoff formula, it was a sixteen-team field. All of the conference champions make the playoff, and the rest of the bracket is filled in with at-large teams. The higher seeds get home field advantage through the first three rounds, which incentivizes the regular season rather than cheapen it. They found their own way to determine the field, but never officially published it. I have my own setup using metrics both of my design and designed by others.

We start by loosely looking at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to determine how well each team scheduled games it could control, albeit years in advance. It rewards going on the road and/or facing teams from Power conferences, and punishes facing lower level competition. To a larger degree, I use First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2, respectively) to see how good each team was and how good the teams they beat were. From there, I add in other opinions in the form of computer rankings that take margin of victory into account. These formulas were written by the late David Rothman (ROTH) and Jeff Sagarin (SAG). Combining these factors, I try to build a fair playoff bracket that culminates in a trip to Arlington, Texas, the site of the national championship game.

So for one final time... let's build a mock bracket.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 14

There was a little chaos... but not enough for my taste.

I'm back on my normal schedule for college football now after taking the last couple of Mondays off due to birthdays and Blackhawk games. And with the season about to wrap up, it's good to do so.

The Committee largely kept things intact, while I made some changes out of protest to the SEC's weak out of conference scheduling, and it made for a weird mock bracket last week. This week saw much improvement in the scheduling, and with it some key number changes that need to be addressed.

If you need a reminder of how this stuff works, you can go back to my explanation of Playoff Points from my Week 1 post. Let's take a look at the damage.