Monday, June 16, 2014

Overanalyzing the NBA Finals

Photo from the @spurs Twitter account
I didn't pay a ton of attention to the NBA this season compared to the NFL or the NHL. I followed the Bulls to some extent, and was, like a majority of people outside the Miami area, rooting for anyone but the Heat to win the title. So when I turned on ESPN on my way home last night to listen to Game 5, I was pleased to hear that the San Antonio Spurs were dominating the Miami Heat en route to their fifth title in 15 years. I of course had to watch the end of it. Even though I didn't see much of the series, the parts I did were just beautiful basketball.

I'm on the record here as hating the Miami Heat. I do. I respect the talent on that team, especially LeBron. But I hate the collusion that took place to build that core. I hate the arrogance they displayed once assembled. I don't like that LeBron rarely gets called for traveling despite traveling on a semiregular basis. I hate that he and Dwyane Wade flop. I hate that the two of them whine like there's no tomorrow. I don't have as big a problem with LeBron as a I do with Wade, but that combination... I hate the Heat. So I was thrilled with how the Finals turned out. If that makes me a "hater", so be it. I'm not ashamed of it.

Photo from Reuters
So what does this mean for various legacies among these two teams? For the Spurs, I'd argue that it makes them the best franchise in the post-Jordan era (it's either them or the Lakers). A lot of knowledgeable basketball fans already had him here, but he's cemented his place as the best power forward of all time. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili become arguably the best players from France and Argentina, respectively, and are in the conversation for best foreign-born player. And with the youth on this team, even if Duncan were to retire, this team still has a pretty solid core around to reload. They've kept proving people who call them too old or too boring wrong for years now. And they put on one of the best performances in the history of the NBA Finals to win their fifth title.

On the other side, a lot of people are, whether you think it's fair or not, blaming LeBron for the loss. Honestly... I can't do it. Let's look at the numbers:
  • LeBron James: 28.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.0 spg, 0.4 bpg; 57% FG/52% 3PT/79% FT (while he falls just short of Bill Simmons' "42 Club", can you really complain about these numbers? This doesn't account for the cramps in Game 1 or his leaving for good with about 6:30 left last night, but I can't really blame him for those either. Especially when you consider...)
  • Dwyane Wade: 15.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.0 bpg; 44% FG/33 % 3PT/69% FT (as I was compiling these stats... they aren't horrible, but for someone who's supposed to be a "superstar", it's not good, especially when you see how much he fell off the table in the final two games.)
  • Chris Bosh: 14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg; 55% FG/38% 3PT/82% FT (Again, he did almost nothing here, though his shooting numbers aren't terrible. He had minimal shots in Game 3, and other games he was so-so.)
Photo from Andy Lions (NBAE/Getty Images)
One of the big takeaways is that LeBron did pretty much all he could, he just got no help from his supporting cast. The troll in me would like to point out that Game 6 of the '98 Finals was pretty much singlehandedly won by MJ as a counterpoint, but I'm not sure how apt that comparison is. Ultimately though, this year's Finals reminded us what it takes to win an NBA championship, and it's something I tackled in the NBA Tournament of Champions I ran last summer. The Spurs are the essence of a team, and they proved it throughout this series. It's arguably one of the most one-sided Finals in history, especially in recent memory.

It also means that the Heat need to go back to the drawing board, and maybe try to add a couple role players to help out. LeBron can't do it himself. Either way, I considered last night a victory for not only San Antonio, *puts on "hater" hat*, but for America and the good of basketball everywhere. To me, this series was a restoration of the balance of the basketball universe for the reasons stated above. I'm legitimately happy for this Spurs team. They proved they were the best team in the league this year in a major way these past couple weeks. And they earned an invitation to next summer's NBA Tournament of Champions II, which I will hopefully have the time and energy for, since I'll have access to all 64 teams invited this time.

Sunday, June 15, 2014

COAS Picks the 2014 MLB All Stars

It may be a little early for this, but I'm going to be on a writing leave in about a week for a while. You know, getting married is kind of a big deal. Balloting for the MLB All Star Game is open until July 3rd and last year I waited until right before the deadline to make my selections, but given that I will be preoccupied, I'm voting early.

Of the four major sports, I'd say baseball has the best All Star Game. You get to see the best players in the game on the field, and they're all trying. That said, the fact that the All Star Game decides home field advantage for the World Series is a joke. Either decide by better overall record, or for a possibly better barometer, use their records against common opponents or something. But that's a post for another time.

Since the reality is that the game decides so much, having the fans vote on the starting lineup makes the starters something of a joke. I take this vote seriously though, and only intend to vote for the guys who deserve to start. Below you will see the starting lineups I voted for 75 times (you get 25 votes per email address, and I'm using the three I have. Sue me.) Stats included with the line are in average/homers/RBI's format and assumed to be the stat lines after all action on June 14th since the voting was conducted on June 15th.

American League
1B: Miguel Cabrera (DET)- .325/12/55
2B: Robinson Cano (SEA)- .331/3/36
SS: Alexei Ramirez (CHW)- .309/7/36
3B: Josh Donaldson (OAK)- .250/17/50
C: Kurt Suzuki (MIN)- .305/2/29
DH: Victor Martinez (DET)- .329/17/43
OF: Jose Bautista (TOR)- .311/15/46
OF: Mike Trout (LAA)- .299/13/49
OF: Michael Brantley (CLE)- .319/10/44

Miggy is the obvious choice for first base, with all due respect to the damage Jose Abreu has done on the South Side. Second is a little tougher, but Cano has done fairly well in his new digs. Derek Jeter will end up starting at short based on sentimentality, which would be fine were this just an exhibition game, but Alexei deserves the start based on numbers. Josh Donaldson has the worst average of my starting lineup, but he's been mashing, so it's fine. Catcher was tough, but Suzuki has done a decent amount of damage for the Twins so I'm in. In the outfield, Bautista and Trout were the no-brainers, and I opted for Brantley over Adam Jones of the Orioles. I almost didn't vote for a DH out of principle (the designated hitter is for sissies), but since I have to, I can't argue against V-Mart's eye-popping numbers.

National League
1B: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)- .309/14/50
2B: Neil Walker (PIT)- .280/11/35
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (COL)- .355/17/43
3B: Todd Frazier (CIN)- .272/14/35
C: Evan Gattis (ATL)- .293/15/35
DH*: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)- .302/18/54
OF: Carlos Gomez (MIL)- .310/12/38
OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT)- .323/11/41
OF: Yasiel Puig (LAD)- .318/11/40

Goldschmidt is the best choice at first, though I did consider Anthony Rizzo. Second base is a little shallow, but I think Neil Walker had the best, most balanced numbers. Tulo is having a monster year, so he's a no brainer at short. Third base was kind of tough too, but Todd Frazier has had a good year, so he's in there. Evan Gattis is hitting really well behind the plate, so he gets the nod there. With the outfield, I cheated a little bit. Stanton was a for-sure pick, as was Puig. I omitted Puig last year based on lack of service time, but that's not an excuse this time. I was torn between McCutchen and Gomez for the third outfielder. Ultimately I decided to cheat; Stanton will be the unofficial DH since the game is being played at an American League park, and the other three outfielders got my vote. Considering Stanton is second among NL outfielders at last update, I think he'll be fine, and all four of these guys will make the team one way or another anyway.

The Official COAS All Star Ballot
Proof of my lack of bias here: no Cubs are starting. Let's be honest, none of them deserve it. They'll get at least one rep obviously, though there might be a shot at a couple. Rizzo might be a backup at first, and I think Jeff Samardzija, even though he's come back to Earth a little bit, could get a nod as one of the pitchers. That's probably it for them, though. On the South Side, I already gave Alexei the starting nod even though Jeter will win. Ramirez will probably still make the team though. Chris Sale will be a pitcher almost definitely. Jose Abreu has a shot, and while I'm considering asking where the love for Paul Konerko is, he's done nothing this year to deserve making the team. Too bad, I actually have a lot of respect for Paulie.

On this Father's Day, enjoy spending time with your dad. To those of you readers who are dads, especially mine, thank you for everything that you do. Enjoy this day, you deserve it.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Unwritten Rules versus Thug Baseball

Photo by Greg Fiume (Getty Images)
There's a lot of tradition in baseball, considering it's been a major American sport for 150 years. Over all that time, a lot of unwritten rules have popped up, some of them good, others stupid. And I think over the weekend in Baltimore, an incident Friday night over a "breach" of unwritten rules turned into what I think can accurately be described as "thug baseball".

In case you haven't been paying attention (though I'm sure just about everyone has at this point), it all started in Friday's third inning when Machado was tagged out on a fielder's choice advancing to third base. Machado made an effort to get out of the way of Josh Donaldson's tag, but fell off balance. Somehow, he felt this was grounds to throw his batting helmet in the direction of Donaldson, then get in his face. Next time Donaldson stepped up, Oriole starter Wei-Yin Chen decided to throw at him, and got him on the elbow the second time.

Photo by Greg Fiume (Getty Images)
Look, I don't have a problem with protecting your teammates. A purpose pitch to the back is a part of the "unwritten rules", and it's not something everyone is a fan of, but either that or a brushback pitch is a good way to let an opponent know, "Hey, we don't respect what you did," and let everyone get on with it. Problem here is, Donaldson did absolutely nothing wrong. If you're going to try to dodge a tag, the fielder might make an added effort to make sure the tag is applied. But Donaldson's tag was in no way too hard; I watched the replay. It's a blatant overreaction by Machado that put bad blood into a series where it didn't need to be.

If that were it, I wouldn't be writing this post. Instead, things continued on Sunday when Manny Machado injured A's catcher Derek Norris with not one, but two consecutive backswings. Supposedly, this is a part of Machado's swing (I don't watch him enough to know for sure), but the fact that it happened twice in a row is suspicious. Then, when you add in the fact that he was caught smiling after hitting Norris one of those times instead of checking to see if he's okay... that's not right.

So of course, the next time Machado came to bat, A's pitcher Fernando Abad threw in tight at Machado. This is much closer to a "protecting your teammates" incident, and actually is since Machado took a player out of the game. Potential problem was, the pitch was thrown low and in, towards Machado's knee, which he hurt last year. I can understand being upset about it. But then he reacted.

Photo by Gail Burton (AP)
Supposedly, the bat slipped out of his hands. I don't buy it. I'm not convinced that Abad should have thrown the second pitch in tight, and for that, I could see why he got tossed on Sunday. But that in no way excuses what Manny Machado did in throwing the bat. It's completely indefensible. It is, like the title suggests, "Thug baseball".

Machado did apologize yesterday, though for a lot of people the authenticity of it is debatable. I'm willing to accept it, but still believe that he needs to punished. Harshly. His defenders (who should all be ashamed, because this really is indefensible) say that "He's just a kid", or that "Abad should be suspended too because he was throwing at Manny's injured knee", or some other nonsense. I don't get it.

An old friend of mine from my WONC days shared the following post on Facebook, and I think this is the major thing to talk about from this weekend:
"People like Machado and Carlos Gomez actually make baseball more exciting. All the baseball purists need to chill bc (sic) watching a hitter flip his bat after a home run or stare down a pitcher after a bomb is good theater and likewise a pitcher striking someone out at a crucial time and letting em know about it just makes things more exciting in a game that's lacked some of that lately."
I wasn't thrilled with the comparison of Machado to Gomez. I don't really have a problem with Go-Go, other than his use of his helmet as a weapon a month or so ago. Later comparisons were made with young stars like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Yasiel Puig. They all wear their emotions on their sleeves, something that isn't a problem. I don't really have an issue with bat flips or celebrations on the field or anything of that nature. But to put Machado's name in that argument is to compare apples and oranges. If throwing a hissy fit over a tag, then injuring an opponent while showing no concern, and then throwing a bat into the field of play is "exciting", I don't know where his line for dirty, unsportsmanlike play falls. This goes far beyond "cockiness", as my friend put it. This is downright thug behavior that needs to be nipped in the bud now.

I'm not really sure what the precedent for this sort of behavior in terms of punishment. But ESPN put up a poll question asking what Machado's punishment should be. At posting time, 85 percent of people felt that he deserved a suspension, and a majority felt that he needs at least five games. I'm in that group. I would go so far as to say he deserves at least 10 games off, if not more. The argument that he's only 21 and "still a kid" has no bearing. He should have known since he was a kid that you don't throw a bat like that. If it were just the bat, I'd be more willing to be lenient. Considering his whole weekend, he needs a long break to realize that he needs to calm down a little bit. He can still play with some passion. He just needs to channel it the right way.