I'd call it history, but I don't think it's the first time I've pulled it off: I took two of three disputed games from Adam last week to narrow the gap ever so slightly, but what's impressive is how I did it: I ended up sweeping the entire non-primetime slate, losing all three night games that took place. Given the circumstances though, I'll take it.
That performance moved me out of last place for the group proper, though Adam maintains a three game lead among the coalition, with me just a game out of second place. Baby steps! You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 13. Let's get back to it!
Thursday Night
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Lucas: Browns. Tempted to play the opposite game right off the bat, given that I think I'm 1-5 on Thursday night games so far this year. But the Broncos clearly got the benefit of a soft schedule to open the year, and even a banged up Cleveland team that will trot out Case Keenum isn't enough for me to want to flip. I look forward to making it 1-6 now.
Adam: Broncos. Looks like Mayfield will be out for this game, so against a career backup in Case Keenum, the Browns will languish and Denver’s D will rise to the occasion.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. I mean, the old throwbacks used to guarantee an absolute blowout. Hoping the same happens with the new throwbacks.
Adam: Packers. Maybe I am crazy, but I think this line is too short. Could be well into double digits.Debuting the 50s Classic uniforms this week.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 20, 2021
👀: https://t.co/UhUI3bh4jW#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/BMlZDgsmkf
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5)
Lucas: Titans. Taking 4.5 points is probably the perfect amount for a relatively close game. Gives you credit if the favorite either hits a last second field goal or scores that touchdown plus PAT to require a touchdown to win. Also helps that taking the points means I get to ride the Euphoric Violet Gazelle again. Don't worry, Micah Hyde, they will sing songs of you in Sto'Vo'Kor.
Adam: Titans. I feel like Mahomie and the Chiefs are getting a little bit of credit despite being .500 right now. Now don’t get me wrong, Tennessee has not played up to snuff either, but I don’t think they should be a dog at home.Dorktown: Derrick Henry pic.twitter.com/VXRqx6dRYC
— Secret Base (@secretbase) October 20, 2021
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Hey Miami, just trade for Deshaun Watson already. You clearly need the help, for all the good it'll do you.
Adam: Falcons. Picking this off of gut. I didn’t have a chance to watch much of the NFL games last weekend.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. The Pats are going to set up another decade of ownership against the Jets, aren't they.
Adam: Jets. With the Jets coming off a bye, maybe giving the team some time to gel a little more, plus the Pats are coming off a hard-fought game against the offensive powerhouse that is Dallas (holding them to sub 40 is border line impressive). But I think they come out flat and the Jets are able to keep this one close.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (+2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. You know what a good cure for a slump is? The Sentient Derp that is the New York Giants.
Adam: Panthers. I know the Panthers have faltered in some games we thought otherwise, but the Giants are just bad in general. And who know if Jones was really ready to come back after that vicious hit despite being cleared.
Lucas note: I doubt he was. You know, the whole NFL not giving a crap about player safety thing.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I'm calling trap game. Division opponent, at home following a game many expected you to lose, just makes sense here.
Adam: Bengals. Tough game and tough line. Depends on which quarterbacks show up. Not the people; of course it will be Burrow and Jackson. But I mean, the lights out QB, or the "What the hell are you thinking?" QB. I hope we get two lights out examples and this game comes down to who has the ball last.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Lucas: Raiders. You know, I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Raiders, but the schedule so far has been forgiving. But a reckoning is coming for Vegas.
Adam: Raiders. Seems almost too much like a no brainer.
Lucas note: Oh god the reckoning is coming this week, isn't it.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams (-15.5)
Lucas: Rams. Why couldn't this game be in Detroit so Lions fans could give Matthew Stafford the standing ovation he clearly deserves, given that he spent the better part of a decade keeping the Lions mediocre at worst? Give them something, at least, football gods.
Adam: Lions. Ahhh, the joy of having to figure out a line between a top tier team and the bottom. AND we get to see the quarterbacks that were swapped playing against each other! This will be fun no matter what and that is why it will stay close. Dare I say even less than a single score?
Lucas note: So... a tie? Would be funny if the Lions went 0-16-1 with a tie to the Rams.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-16.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. You know what, screw it, two massive double digit favorites in a row. My only question is whether these Cardinals will run up the score like I hope NCC runs up the score on Illinois Wesleyan on Saturday. Hey Norm, you still think the '19 Cardinals weren't 69-14 better than you?
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5)
Lucas: Bears. Yeah, three in a row is too rich for my blood, but maybe I'm picking the wrong one. I look forward to more Bears' offensive ineptitude and Bears fans calling for Nagy's and Pace's heads.
Adam: Bears. Dang, three double digit games in a row. This one I am not sure I agree with. The other two make sense. But the Bears are a much better team than +13.5 against Tampa. I’ll take those points fully expecting a good game; not necessarily close, but not a blowout.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. I don't remember at what point the NFL allows games to be flexed out of the primetime slot, because if they could, they'd have flexed this one out hard. Terrible Sunday Night game. Taking the points and moving on.
Adam: Colts. At the beginning of the year this would have been a no brainer for San Francisco. But as the year has gone on and injuries have piled up and games have been played, Indy is better now and I will happily take 3.5 in this spot.
Monday Night
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (+4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I actually get to use the proper line for this one, even though I've used this already once or twice this year. But you know what I've said: shady [expletive] happens on Monday nights in Seattle.
Adam: Seahawks. Shut up and take my money! Seattle a dog to the Saints at home even with Wilson out, fumbles by Smith aside, that line is cray in my opinion. But I also looked at the ESPN percentage who has picked Seattle +4.5 and its only 42% as of Wednesday afternoon. WOW, that is surprising to me. Maybe I am missing something.
Records So Far
Lucas: 48-46 (11-3 last week)
Adam: 53-41 (10-4 last week)
Joe: 46-48 (7-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 49-45 (9-5 last week)
Jim: 48-46 (7-7 last week)
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