Tuesday, September 21, 2021

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 3

With Week 3 of the college slate in the books, let's take a look back at what happened.

Now for me, the most important game of the weekend occurred in Wheaton, Illinois, where the Little Brass Bell came home where it belongs. No other result really mattered from the weekend, though I know that's not why you're here.

The FBS continued its season over the weekend, and with more results we're going to start seeing some separation from the pack. I'll go over some more team-specific rankings later, but here are how the conferences stack up with three weeks' worth of data.

American Athletic
Wins: 1.55 (7th)
PP1: 1.00 (8th)
PP2: 0.18 (9th)
aPP: 0.27 (8th)

ACC
Wins: 1.86 (T-5th)
PP1: 1.29 (6th)
PP2: 0.45 (3rd)
aPP: 0.50 (T-5th)

Big Ten
Wins: 2.14 (3rd)
PP1: 2.21 (2nd)
PP2: 0.51 (2nd)
aPP: 1.79 (3rd)

Big 12
Wins: 2.40 (1st)
PP1: 1.80 (3rd)
PP2: 0.42 (4th)
aPP: 1.80 (2nd)

Conference USA
Wins: 1.43 (9th)
PP1: 0.50 (10th)
PP2: 0.08 (10th)
aPP: -0.57 (10th)

Independents
Wins: 1.86 (T-5th)
PP1: 1.57 (4th)
PP2: 0.24 (7th)
aPP: 0.57 (4th)

MAC
Wins: 1.08 (11th)
PP1: 0.25 (11th)
PP2: 0.08 (11th)
aPP: -1.08 (11th)

Mountain West
Wins: 1.92 (4th)
PP1: 1.25 (7th)
PP2: 0.19 (8th)
aPP: 0.50 (T-5th)

Pac 12
Wins: 1.50 (8th)
PP1: 1.33 (5th)
PP2: 0.36 (5th)
aPP: 0.50 (T-5th)

SEC
Wins: 2.36 (2nd)
PP1: 2.43 (1st)
PP2: 0.55 (1st)
aPP: 2.21 (1st)

Sun Belt
Wins: 1.20 (10th)
PP1: 0.90 (9th)
PP2: 0.30 (6th)
aPP: 0.00 (9th)

To see the updated numbers, click here.

Ultimately I'm not super surprised by a lot of these numbers. The SEC is doing what the SEC normally does, and that's largely clean house in the advanced metrics. For a conference a lot of people drag as being overrated, year in and year out, they are consistently at the top of the rankings, which bodes well for them when I go to start picking at large teams in about two and a half months.

With three weeks of data, if we want to start looking at national leaders, Georgia currently leads in First Degree Playoff Points with six, Stanford and Georgia State are tied atop the Second Degree Playoff Points list with two, and Georgia also leads Adjusted Playoff Points with those six. Stanford is our highest ranked team with a loss in that category, sitting on three points.

Obviously, three weeks' worth of data still isn't a lot, but we're starting to see a little bit of separation, and that will only grow as we move into the season. Each week, not only are we getting that game impacting these scores, but marking down wins for teams also accumulates points for their prior wins (or deducts for prior losses in the case of aPP). This will increase the separation and probably in about a month's time, we'll start to get a pretty good picture of who the playoff contenders are.

I will follow up soon with the NCSS numbers for Week 4!

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