Thursday, December 16, 2021

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

Just four weeks remain, and the coalition is tightening up in our quest to pick NFL games against the spread.

Adam maintains his three game lead through 14 weeks as we split our four disputed games; Joe took three of five from me and four of seven from Adam. But it was Jim who was the big mover this week with a dominant Sunday effort, only missing on that Niners-Jags overtime game, and then on Monday night. He's now in a tie for third, but Adam and I have a few games' worth of cushion at the top. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

With COVID ravaging professional sports, we decided that for this week, mulligans are free if a team has a key player announced out due to protocol that would have one of us change our pick. I haven't used one yet this year; Adam has used a couple.

This week, byes are done, so we're back to the full 16 game slate. Adam and I disagree on five games, Joe and I on six, and Joe and Adam on seven. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Reports of KC's demise, like the reports of my incarceration in Mexico back in like 2012, are greatly exaggerated.
Adam: Chiefs. Mahomie and crew have been looking much better and now sit atop the AFC West. Should be a good Thursday game, but Mahomes wins.
Joe: Chiefs. Another great primetime matchup. Both teams are fighting for a good playoff spot. Chiefs make an upset in LA.
Lucas note: Is it an upset if you're favored...?

Saturday Afternoon

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
Lucas: Raiders. A COVID-decimated Browns team has to have Sid drooling, right?
Adam: Raiders. Making this purely on the Bakers and like half the Browns team being in the protocol.
Joe: Raiders. Since the majority of the stars for the Browns are on COVID IR, Derek Carr aka Marv from Home Alone will get the W in Cleveland.

Saturday Night

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Patriots. The more things change, the more they stay the same, huh?
Adam: Colts. Maybe a hot take, maybe just the league's best running back here, and, dare I say, Mac Jones is just a bus driver...
Joe: Patriots. This team is En Fuego right now. Mac Jones might be turning into Brady 2.0 with Wild Bill coaching him up; it is too soon to tell for sure, but from what we are seeing out of the 2021 quarterback class, Jones is way ahead of his class.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
Lucas: Bills. They've got to rebound at some point. Getting a bad Carolina team at home is the perfect time, and if they can't pull this off...
Adam: Bills. I know I swore them off, and with Allen day to day with in injured foot, that means its baking time with The Biscuit. Who doesn’t like a nice warm biscuit?
Joe: Bills. They have had some tough losses. I see them getting back on the win wagon here against the Panthers here. I think they just make the cover.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I feel like a month ago this Dolphin team was written off. They're in the mix now, and I'm not sure who that says more about: Miami or the AFC as a whole.
Adam: Dolphins. Hey, what ever happened to the weird guy that always posted on NFL Memes? “Dolphins fan here” haha.
Joe: Dolphins. The Jets might have Flacco, but being 3-10 and with three games left to play this season, I think they take the loss to move up in the 2022 draft.

Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Lucas: Washington. I still don't totally trust Philly. Not that I trust Washington, but I feel like this line is perfect for taking the points.
Adam: Eagles. Here is the real question: are the Eagles a better team with Gardner or Hurts? I mean, didn’t you hear that Gardner’s tears can end world hunger?
Joe: Washington. This will be another close game, but I think Washington has a better shot in the playoffs than the Eagles. I see the WFT winning by seven.

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (+13.5)
Lucas: Lions. Taking the points here with Hopkins out for the rest of the regular season.
Adam: Lions. Man, I am flipping on this. Arizona without Hopkins is still tough, but no where near the monster that they could be.
Joe: Cardinals. Even with Hopkins out for the last three games this season, this will not hurt the Cardinals on offense one bit in Detroit. They have a strong defense as well. They beat the Lions by 17.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+10.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. And I hate that I'm taking them. I still think they're frauds who are going to crash and burn come playoff time though.
Adam: Giants. Now that I can clean my ears out from the Fan just smoozing all over Parsons. They are starting to have talks about Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year... wow, drink that Kool Aid. You know what they are tossing to the side: their homeboy Dak. Haha. Heiferladies.
Joe: Cowboys. Dak has to be on point this week and the defense has to play like they did in Washington last week. With all the starting wideouts back, I see the Cowboys making the spread here.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
Lucas: Titans. Pittsburgh: Where wide receivers go to go full diva. Never go full diva, because now it's infected Chase Claypool.


Adam: Titans. Not much I want to say here.
Joe: Steelers. I think Big Ben gets an upset here and the line is only +1.5. Steelers win at home in a cold Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Cue the Roundball Rock.


Adam: Texans. Can we end the Urban Meyer’s experiment yet? A new report is out that he kicked, yes kicked, a player during a preseason game warmup.
Lucas note: Recycling from the bar story that seems like forever ago.

Joe: Texans. The Tank Bowl. This was a tough choice for me since the line is only 2.5. I think the Jags are the slightly weaker team here.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Maybe I've been too high on the Bengals, and not high enough on Denver. Let's try flipping that just in time for the Bengals to destroy them this week. Also, I should have used a mulligan after the Demaryius Thomas news broke.
Adam: Bengals. Very fitting for what the Broncos did for Thomas. But even those emotions aside, Cincy will prevail.
Joe: Bengals. Another close line. I know the Bengals are on a hot then cold streak this season. I think the hot streak comes back in Denver.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Lucas: 49ers. This Niner team is sneaky good. They could be a threat in January.
Adam: 49ers. I predict George Kittle will do more George Kittle like things. I mean 13/15 for 151 and a touchdown. Could he improve on this? Yes.
Joe: 49ers. I mean, come on man, Samuel is a beast and he went off last week. I think the Niners go off again at home and win by double digits.

Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens (+4.5)
Lucas: Packers. An injured Lamar Jackson gives me a confidence boost in this one. There's only one thing that scares me: whatever the hell you call Green Bay's special teams.
Adam: Packers. Even with a healthy Jackson, I think this is a runaway Green Bay win. With Jackson being a “maybe” and not trending well, barring a Green Bay setback, this is a pretty straightforward pick.
Joe: Packers. With Lamar most likely out, and the way Green Bay has been playing, easy points here. Rodgers destroys the Ravens.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Lucas: Rams. Grateful for the Rams win that gave Green Bay the top seed for the time being. But I gotta be careful what I wish for now...
Adam: Rams. Got to love that the incident I swore I would never speak of again was a trivia question Tuesday night at my regular trivia spot.
Lucas note: This needs context.
Joe: Rams. Stafford proved that he wasn’t as stale as Adam thought last week. I was the only one in the group to pick the Rams on Monday night, amnd I see an easy win against a poor Seahawks team this week.

Sunday Night

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5)
Lucas: Saints. Something about the regular season Saints against Tampa. Taking the points.
Adam: Saints. With Hill looking to make his third straight start, this will either be a nailbiter or a blowout.
Joe: Buccaneers. Tom Brady at home on SUNDAY NIIIIIIGHT. The run defense for the Bucs is awesome; they will keep Kamara in check. Brady goes off and I am hoping for a few touchdownss for Gronk since he is on my fantasy team.

Monday Night

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Lucas: Vikings. 


Adam: Vikings. Seems like a generous line and an overreaction to the Bears keeping it close in the first half last week against the Packers. I don’t see that happening again, and even at home, a loss is in their future.
Joe: Bears. Da Bears held their own against a strong Packers team, but only for a quarter. But in that quarter, they scored 24 points. If they can do that again and if the Bears' defense stays strong playing at home, I can see the Bears winning by six. But I know it will be tough with the Vikings fighting hard for that wild card spot. Vikings.
Lucas note: Joe changed this but didn't tell us. Ultimately I let it go and let him make the swap.

Records So Far
Lucas: 112-96 (8-6 last week)
Adam: 115-93 (8-6 last week)
Joe: 102-106 (9-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 107-101 (10-4 last week)
Jim: 107-101 (12-2 last week)

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