The NFL season is upon us, and with it, the tenth season of one of my favorite features returns as the coalition is back to once again pick NFL games against the spread!
Adam Quinn is once again returning as the featured weekly guest and, if the pattern that we've taken over the last several years holds, he will resume his odd year magic and win the column title.
The rest of the coalition is back aboard this year as well. Our friend/my brother-in-law Joe returns, his uncle and our friend Jim is back as well, and good friend of the COAS franchise and defending group champion Geoffrey Clark.
So for those of you unfamiliar with this feature, we are in a group playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. ESPN sets lines for games the Tuesday prior to kickoff (or in the case of Week 1, way way in advance). We pick the games, Adam and I come on here (or do a podcast) and make our picks, explaining the rationale (or lack thereof) behind them. One point is awarded per win. We'll keep track of how we pick in relation to each other here.
I did add one new wrinkle to the contest this year. In the past, we've been locked into picks once the column/podcast goes live, even if, say, an injury or something occurs after the fact that would change our pick. To avoid this, Adam and I will each get four mulligans to use at any point this season if we decide we want to change our picks after they go live on here but before the game kicks off and ESPN locks it. Posts will be updated if these mulligans get used.
And so without further ado, let's get to this year's contest! To start us off, Adam and I disagree on four games out of the opening 16.
Thursday NightDallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccanneers (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Since the NFL made the season kickoff game hosted by the Super Bowl champion in 2004 (with a couple games that have been exceptions since then), that host team has gone 13-2 straight up. I’m reluctant to buck history, especially since Dem Boyz suck.
Adam: Buccaneers. 6.5 is a tall order. I like the Cowboys to be decent this season and play well enough to just barely make the playoffs and then face dive in Wild Card Weekend. But Week 1 does not do them any favors against the returning champs.
Adam note: Lucas, over/under at 15.5 games. How many does one Dakota Prescott play? I am going to take the under, but just, I think he plays 14-15 games.
Lucas note: Give me the over. I'm not going to ding him for an injury that could happen to anybody.
Adam note: Lucas, over/under at 15.5 games. How many does one Dakota Prescott play? I am going to take the under, but just, I think he plays 14-15 games.
Lucas note: Give me the over. I'm not going to ding him for an injury that could happen to anybody.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. How long before Gardner Minshew unseats Jalen Hurts in Philly? Let’s get the Falcons some early success to try and get their wing trending back upwards.
Adam: Falcons. Week 1, you can get some lines that just don’t seem right. This is one of them. The Eagles will be playing with 2nd year Heisman QB Jalen Hurts. More of an change up QB, I just don’t see him flushing here. I’ll take Matty Ice Ice Baby.Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Lucas: Bills. Just gonna destroy all optimism for the Black and Gold Brigade out the gate, huh, NFL?
Adam: Bills. Bills to the Superbowl. There, I said it. Allen is going to be a stud this year, and one that I would highly recommend you either draft (if you are weird and haven’t had your fantasy draft yet) or sell the farm to get. He will be the overall #1 fantasy player.
Adam: Bills. Bills to the Superbowl. There, I said it. Allen is going to be a stud this year, and one that I would highly recommend you either draft (if you are weird and haven’t had your fantasy draft yet) or sell the farm to get. He will be the overall #1 fantasy player.
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I’m trying to decide whether it’s funny or sad that I go on vacation to Michigan in late July, get to see the commercial for the West Michigan Honda Dealers that stars Kirk Cousins that my agency produced and I trafficked for my day job, then right after I get back from vacation have to turn around and pull that spot from air because Cousins is an idiot. Let’s take the points, and here's a shorter, older online Kirk Cousins-West Michigan Honda ad.
Adam: Bengals. A second line I don’t like. Look, I get that Minnesota on paper should be good, but Cincy will be a killer this year. Burrow's coming back after a solid start last year before his injury. Look for him to keep it going. Minnesota wins, but Cincy covers.San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions (+7.5)
Lucas: Lions. This is more of a "I like getting this many points with a home dog" than any faith whatsoever in a Lions team that parted ways with Matthew Stafford. Also, yeah, the Niners did a whole alternating quarterback thing in the preseason but they need to just bite the bullet and run the Flying Dragon already.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I mean, Derrick Henry is Derrick Henry, but let’s not rule out some Kyler Murray-Deandre Hopkins magic to make this interesting.
Adam: Titans. What is it that you call O Henry boy? The purple gizelle? Yeah, only a 2.5 favorite at home. I must be missing something. I know Murray will be a solid QB this year for Arizona, but not enough to overcome the Titans at home.Lucas note: I guess put Adam down for an early murder by the Euphoric Violet Gazelle.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I forget, was this the week where Russell Wilson cooks and becomes an early front runner for MVP before he has like a four-pick game midseason and throws himself out of the running?
Lucas note: Oh sorry, I’m off by two weeks. Close enough.
Adam: Seahawks. Looks like Indy is on track to have Prince Harry under center. But really, a favorite against Wilson and the high-powered O from Seattle? Hawks fly high.Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team (+1.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Yeah, let’s go with both the West Coast teams playing at noon. What could possibly go wrong here.
Adam: Chargers. I am just disappointed we have to wait until next year to hear the Team’s name. I hope they come up with something awesome like the Algonquin, or the Cherokee... never mind, that wouldn’t work. No matter, the Chargers will do just fine and win with relative ease.New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
Lucas: Panthers. The Jets are a joke until they prove otherwise. Laying the points.
Adam: Panthers. Revenge game for Darnold? Maybe he won’t see any ghosts. Or maybe we will get some epic tweets from Zach Wilson’s mom...Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Let’s get Trevor Lawrence off to a good NFL start before the midseason rookie woes hit.
Adam: Jaguars. I hereby grant this game the Dumpster Fire of the Week award. The Jags under the reigns of a new head coach and new QB will get a taste of full speed NFL action. And the Texans... oh bother. With this win too, the Jags will equal their win total from last year.Lucas note: Is Week 1 too early for a Tank Bowl? Inquiring minds want to know.
Adam note: What will Sunshine’s official TD/INT be. I am guessing 22TD to 30 INT.
Lucas note: Put me down for 20 and 25.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Browns. Call it a hangover from losing the Super Bowl, call it a contender that went on a semi-unexpected playoff run now having higher expectations this year meeting the challenge of a stern Week 1 road test, but I like the Browns outright here. They may not win, but they’re not going to lay down and die for Mahomes and company.
Adam: Chiefs. Should be a solid game. Mahomie will want some revenge this year sliding the ball sideways, no look... hell, backwards too. Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I almost petitioned to rename this the Iron Bowl since we have a duel between Alabama quarterbacks on tap, but you know what, let’s take the completely unjustified potshot and even though he’s super-peripherally involved, call it the Nick Saban Is A Coward Bowl. Stop scheduling your FCS game for the week before Auburn!
Adam: Dolphins. I heard that Mac Jones was teaching the Pats playbook to Mrs. Newton. May have contributed to his getting cut.Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. Important to note: this line was set before hurricanes forced the Saints to abandon the SuperDome again and move this game to Jacksonville. I would have preferred Lambeau Field South (JerryWorld), but either way this pretty much eliminates any home field advantage the now Drew Brees-less Saints would have had. I was taking Green Bay regardless, but these changes just lock it in.
Adam: Packers. A A Ron will be all business now that the season started. And I don’t really know who or what is on New Orleans. Their star receiver is whining like a baby and their QB has crabs or something...Denver Broncos @ New York Giants (+1.5)
Lucas: Giants. How long before our first quarterback change at Mile High? I set the over/under at six and a half games.
Adam: Giants. Daniel Jones will be the key to the G-Men’s success. Came on late last season as I recall and with a healthly Saquon back, the G-Men’s offense could be a force. But it's all up to Jones.Sunday Night
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Lucas: Rams. Because Matt Nagy can’t scheme and Andy Dalton can’t execute this piece of football porn… and this might only be my second-favorite play from that game.
Adam: Rams. Red Rocket is going to crash and burn. That is all. Fields should be starting.Adam note: How many games until Fields gets the start? I say gets put in at half of Week 3, but starts Week 4.
Lucas note: I'm gonna say not until the bye, with some possible mop-up duty in the interim.
Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I feel like Oakland might be decent this year, but I trust the Ravens more.
Adam: Raiders. This is a gut play. The Ravens have been so one note the past several season. I mean, Jackson led the team in rushing by 200 yards! And that is the way it has been for several seasons. Its just not sustainable.
Adam: Raiders. This is a gut play. The Ravens have been so one note the past several season. I mean, Jackson led the team in rushing by 200 yards! And that is the way it has been for several seasons. Its just not sustainable.
Records Last Season
Lucas: 126-130
Adam: 124-132
Joe: 123-133
Geoffrey: 128-128
Jim: 120-136
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