Just six weeks remain, and most of the byes have been taken at this point, so pretty soon we'll be back to the full 16 game slates. Those will be big, as the gap continues to narrow.
Just two weeks ago, Adam had a double digit lead among the group. After I took four of five in last week's podcast episode (and the same margin from Joe while the two of them split their six disputed games), Adam's margin is down to just three games as his success with hero picks has started to come back down to earth. He said when he sent me his picks for this week that it seemed like he was trying to be overly contrarian and is planning to move more to the mean this time around. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.
This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 14, so for the first time in a few weeks the lead is up for grabs. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. They're due to right the ship after a tough loss on Thanksgiving, but I think they're slated to get some reinforcements back. Honestly, I'd rather have Amari Cooper added back to the receiving corps in exchange for Mike McCarthy being out with COVID. If anything, might make the Heiferladies more of a threat. Adam, we are calling them the Heiferladies now, right?
Adam: Cowboys Heiferladies. If New Orleans had a “real” quarterback, I might go the other way, but they have had a down November due largely to the many injuries/COVID issues they have had. The Heiferladies should be getting Cooper back and should take the Dub easily.
Lucas note: Important reminder: Adam and I make our picks independently of each other; I don't look at what he sends me before I finish my writeup, and Adam doesn't see what I pick until the column goes live. I just assumed based off last week and Dallas being close to "Heiferlady" level that they probably crossed the threshold after their Thanksgiving loss. And I was right.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (+10.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Okay, had to make sure this was still a December game. Taking the points, figuring the Bucs will win, but not quite cover. That comes in January.
Adam: Buccaneers. Tough line, but the Falcons seem to just be broken. Looks like this year can be chalked up as another year of wasting Matty Ice Ice Baby.
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears (+7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. A win on Thanksgiving (even if it was by the skin of their teeth) means Matt Nagy gets to stick around! (Well, that, plus the fact that the Bears don't fire coaches mid-year.) We'll call this a trailer for next week's premiere of the blockbuster trilogy conclusion. You know where I'm going with this.
Adam: Cardinals. “The Bears are who we thought they were...” but this time they won’t be let off the hook. Fields should be shut down the rest of the year; no need to put him at risk. Lick their wounds and move on.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Kitty goes meow.
Adam: Bengals. Man, the Bengals have been a bipolar team this year. Some games they're lights out good; other games a stinky doo doo team (technical term there). I think Kevin is looking to protect the toy store this week and will prevail.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+7.5)
Lucas: Lions. They're going to get one. I don't know when, and maybe their best chance is already behind them, but I feel like they're bound to get one. Adam keeps saying they're the best 0-[whatever]-1 team in history, and I agree with him. I think they at least cover this with a chance to win.
Adam: Lions. Went back and forth here, but I am still looking at Detroit as a team that has been the unlucky recipient of bounces this year. In all honestly, they should have beaten the Bears last week. I don’t see a win here, but I like the points and the cover.
Lucas note: The one thing I haven't done yet this year is look at Detroit's Pythagorean win percentage (basically, based on point differential, what their record should be). Coming into this one, they should be 2-8-1, which honestly seems about right.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. One thing that didn't get picked up on the recording from last week's podcast was me clapping when we talked about Jason Garrett getting fired. The headphones I was wearing are now in the trash (mainly because they broke and they were a cheap pair I got from Five Below anyway). Those headphones are much like the Giants.
Adam: Dolphins. Not much of an opinion here, just going to take the home team.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Lucas: Jets. I can't believe I'm willingly taking the Jets here. Really, I'm just taking the points and hoping I don't get burned by Jalen Hurts.
Adam: Eagles. Rough week for the Eagles last week, losing to the Freddy Kitchens-led G-Men. They come out hungry and trounce the Jets.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+9.5)
Lucas: Texans. I think this line is an overreaction to last week. I don't believe Indy is double digits better, especially on the road, against Tyrod, who's been all right so far. Taking the points and hoping Jonathan Taylor doesn't pull an Ethan Greenfield.
🚨 CARDINAL TOUCHDOWN 🚨
— NCC Cardinals (@NCC_Athletics) November 27, 2021
Cards get it rollin 🔄🔄🔄
Greenfield rushing 4 and into the end zone, Meyer +1 to answer the Eagles
NCC: 27
UWLAX: 13
13:21 Q4 #WeAreNC | #d3fb pic.twitter.com/wqOzsxRTYd
Adam: Colts. Gave up a big lead to Tampa last week in a game I went Hero and thought I was going to cruise to a W. No matter; even on the road, the Colts are the much better team and will romp.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Washington. I'm rooting for chaos in Tank Division.
Adam: Raiders. The Team needed some point after/two point conversion help all day in order to pull that game out. Not sure the status of their kicker, but Sid and team will do just fine at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)
Lucas: Rams. Assuming, at least, that Jalen Ramsey didn't spin off into another dimension courtesy of an old man with a broken toe.
Adam: Jaguars. Hot take: Stafford gets crushed (sacked) early in the game and the Rams' backup quarterback, Mrs Stafford (who practices by thowing pretzels at people), takes over. Jags make the game close and -you heard it here first- back door chance for the win straight up!
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I almost went the other way on this one initially, before changing my mind. Lamar's not going to throw four picks again; not against this defense.
Adam: Ravens. Not much here other than thank you for the 3.5 points. Won’t need them, but thank you just in case.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Russell Wilson broke the Seahawks in Super Bowl IL. It's the only logical explanation, and the fact that he continues to throw on the goal line brings me joy.
RUSSELL WILSON AND THROWING GOAL-LINE INTERCEPTIONS IN HUGE MOMENTS
— Chad Ryan (@ChadwikoTWW) November 30, 2021
NAME A BETTER COMBO
Kendall Fuller you star!#WashingtonFootball pic.twitter.com/k8l9ANYDtE
Adam: 49ers. Rumor has it the Niners may look to move Jimmy G. Maybe they should send him up to Seattle; I hear they don’t have even a serviceable quarterback right now. Sorry, too easy of a shot at a terrible Seattle team. They have lost their way. But maybe that not surprising, seeing as Pete C@rro!! is their coach.
Sunday Night
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Lucas: Broncos. The Chiefs shouldn't be double digit favorites; they haven't earned it this year. I think they win, but it's closer than it maybe should be.
Adam: Broncos. Another hot take: Kansas City regresses back to their early season dud form. Denver’s D is good, so I see KC winning but that defense keeps it close.
Monday Night
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Outright upset. Bill Belichick is a Sith Lord.
Adam: Bills. This is going to be my final chance for the Bills. They are so much better than that 7-4 record, or at least they should be on paper. Not really sure what their issue is. So one more chance, Mafia, one more chance.
Records So Far
Lucas: 97-83 (10-5 last week)
Adam: 100-80 (7-8 last week)
Joe: 83-97 (7-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 90-90 (8-7 last week)
Jim: 87-93 (7-8 last week)
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