Joe joined us for last week's slate, and for us... it did not go well. And then there's Adam, who swept three hero picks, making the difference as he took four of five from me and six of seven from Joe, while I took three of four from Joe.
This builds Adam's lead to double digits as the rest of us are a mix of treading water above .500 to fairly far below. Adam's incredible success in hero picks (both in terms of rate and volume) is the reason for his large lead. Odd year magic is at it again. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.
Joe joins us again this week, and in this 15 game slate, Adam and I disagree on six, Joe and I on four, and Joe and Adam on four games. Let's get to it!
Editor note: Prior to kickoff on Sunday, both Adam and Joe used a mulligan to change their picks from Ravens -6.5 to Bears +6.5. And then prior to kickoff on Monday, Joe used a second mulligan to change his pick from Buccaneers -11.5 to Giants +11.5. Joe and Adam have both used two of their four mulligans for the season. Column was updated Monday 11/22 to reflect these changes.
Thursday Night
New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I doubt I'll be the hero on this one. Hey, did you know these two teams met in a Super Bowl a few years back, and there was some sort of thing about the numbers 3 and 28? No idea what it means though.
Adam: Falcons. The Pats put on a show last week, and the Falcons... well, not so much. Maybe there is 28-3 blood still left, but I see this as a knee jerk pick to the Pats, so that’s why I am taking the Falcons and going to enjoy my early one game lead for the week over Lucas when he fails with his Pats pick.
Lucas note: Oh goddammit.
Joe: Patriots. I believe the Falcons are in a rebuilding year, and if you look at their roster, they really don’t have guys that are stars yet. I think the Pats pull this one off and make the points.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Lucas: Colts. I don't know what the heck is going on in the AFC. No one seems to want to run away with it, except maybe the Henry-less Titans? No idea, but I'm taking the points here.
Adam: Colts. Prince Harry has been pedestrian at best, and Josh Allen has also returned to earth. The Bills have been so inconsistent I cannot lay a touchdown-plus. Buffalo either wins in a rout or loses in a field goal match.
Joe: Bills. The Colts are going to play in the cold against a Bills team that is in my opinion still a Super Bowl contender. I like the line here for Buffalo.
Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears (+6.5)
Lucas: Bears. Seriously though, the NFL needs to allow more teams to be like the Packers and be publicly owned. Gotta be better than the McCaskey's, right? *thunder*Adam: Ravens. I see this game having about three quarters of solid, nose-grinding football; one in which the Bears' faithful may even see glimmers of hope for a W. But the legs of Jackson take over, no potty break needed, and the game gets out of hand late.Adam note: I was thinking about both this game and on Detroit to the Browns, but I have an unnatural thing for the Lions, so I am officially changing Ravens to Bears +6.5.Joe: Ravens. I see Lamar bouncing back against a Bears team that now has to figure a lot out on offense. As much as I would like to see my Bears win by a touchdown, I don’t see that happening here.
Joe note: With Lamar out, I am switching my Ravens pick to Da Bears +6.5.
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-9.5)
Lucas: Lions. Cleveland probably got to laugh at the Steelers for last week, but they may not be laughing by 4pm local time on Sunday. Taking the points.
Adam: Lions. *checks the cycle* Yep, Baker loses to an inferior team. Oh, and participation medal to the Lions too for making me have a near heart attack. If that FANTASTIC overtime field goal try had been good, I would have been out of my points survivor league. Thank God a tie counts as a W.
Joe: Lions. Yes, I am going with the Lions. They tied the Steelers last week; I guess that would be a win for them. Adam’s former OU quarterback love, Mayfield, is banged up but is saying he is going to play. I think the Lions keep this game close.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
Lucas: Titans. Okay, enough taking points. I'm taking blood here.
Adam: Titans. The Texans are coming off a bye, so that could make the line interesting, but still Tennessee is the far and away better team. I don’t love laying double digits here, but I think it’s the right play.
Joe: Titans. I strongly believe that Houston is tanking to get a great draft pick to replace Taylor and Watson. I don’t see the Texans making this a close game.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. Seemed fitting that this meme popped up this week given Green Bay's stock sale that made me update my birthday/Christmas list.
Adam: Packers. Ummm. How is this only 2.5? One day I may understand these lines. This seems like a slam dunk pick: an 8-2 Green Bay team versus 4-5 Minnesota.
Lucas note: Well, devil's advocate: it's in Minnesota, and the Vikings have tended to play Green Bay fairly well in the past, but at the same time... you have a point.
Joe: Packers. To get an even bigger lead in the pathetic NFC North this year, Rodgers goes out and destroys the Vikings in Mr. Aaron Rodgers fashion. Buy some stock Lucas, own a piece of the Pack while they are good now, it will be the Bears division soon. Fields said so himself, Lucas you can double check that if you want.
Lucas note: Fields better make sure Nagy doesn't break him first and set the franchise back another half decade.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. New York is a rough town. Mike White goes from hero to zero in the span of what, two weeks?
Adam: Jets. I know Miami is coming off a big win last Thursday, and the Jets are the Jets... but I see this as a trap game for the Fins. Tua is back, or at least I would expect him to start, and who know what the Jets will get from Flacco? So at home, I’ll roll the dice and take the points.
Joe: Dolphins. The way they played against the Ravens was impressive. That O-lineman knew what he was doing all along. I mean it was a TNF game last week, so why not show off? Joe Flacco’s first game of the season, I am sure he will have some rust on him.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. Nothing to say about this game, just taking the road team.
Adam: Eagles. This may be one of the tougher games to pick. I think the Eagles win outright, so really the question for me then is it a one point or greater win. I like it to be 3-5 points.
Joe: Eagles.
Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I'm calling letdown game after beating up on the Bucs. Yeah, that ten minute game-killing drive was awesome, but you're not gonna do that every week.
Adam: Panthers. Super Cam.
"I'M BAAAAAAACK!"
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 14, 2021
Cam Newton scores in his first play back with the Panthers!
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/URzAh9L5qF
Joe: Panthers. Cam is back, and I could not believe what the team did against Arizona last week. I am sure they will have the same showing with Cam’s first game back at home against Washington.
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. They get to build a little momentum after shutting down the Dream Team on Monday. You love to see it. (The Dream Team losing part, not necessarily the Niners building momentum.)
Adam: Jaguars. Originally I had this as San Francisco. I get it: they roasted the Rams over the coals. Word is OBS is making a new “get me out of here” mix tape for OBJ... Anyway, Jacksonville and Sunshine have really come together the past few games and I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt at home.
Joe: 49ers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Expecting a Cincy bounceback coming off of the bye. Kitty goes meow.
Adam: Raiders. Here is another game I had originally picked differently yesterday when I added in my snap decision picks. Now that I see the line and think about Sid the Kid vs Kevin McCallister, it’s a no brainer. Sid will blow up any toys and Micro Machines Kevin leaves out, though Kevin may call the cops...
Lucas note:
Joe: Raiders. It is such a small point spread here. But I am going with the home team. Sometimes the house loses in Vegas, but I see the Raiders winning by three here.
Lucas note:
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Because someone needs to knock Dem Boyz back down a peg, and I really hope the Chiefs can pull it off...
Adam: Chiefs. You know what biggest talking points are right now on the FAN in Dallas? It’s that they don’t think the Cowgirls have been given enough credit in the odds to with the Super Bowl. Right now they're sixth behind some much better teams. Seems a bit high to me; should be closer to 10th, but whatever.
Lucas note: Yeah, I'd maybe say eighth or so?
Joe: Chiefs. I do think both offenses will be fun to watch this week, but I do think that Kansas City is finally figuring it out. It will be a close game, but the home team takes this one by three.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. DK is overrated; change my mind.
Adam: Seahawks. This is being selected on the basis that Kyler will not play, and apparently backup Colt McCoy is also injured. I will ear mark this for a potential mulligan if Kyler plays.
Joe: Seahawks. I think Russell getting his first shutout of his career really got to him last week against another 7-2 team. He will cook at home this week.
Sunday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Took the Chargers originally, but with the line as it is, I've got some cushion for when the primetime Special Teams Eff Up happens.
Adam: Steelers. With Big Ben out and his status still up in the air, and Watt injured, and back up Mason Rudolph performing poorly, AND giving the Lions their first non-loss of the season, this seems like a perfect game to pick the Chargers. And that’s exactly why I will pick the Steelers.
Joe: Steelers. With that tie to the Lions, I can see the players on both sides of the ball really stepping it up here.
Monday Night
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5)
Lucas: Giants. Look, it's late November, the Bucs will probably win the one, but look a little vulnerable in doing so, leading to a bunch of "that's it, they're done" takes before they rattle off four or five straight to close out the year, knock off Green Bay in the NFC title game again after some more refball, then see Brady go on one more magical title-winning drive against whoever comes out of the mess that is the AFC to win his eighth ring. I hate everything.
Adam: Giants. Look, I know TB will do TB things in TB. But with Barkley coming back, and TB in TB looking somewhat pedestrian the past couple weeks, I don’t see a 3rd loss for TB and TB team, but New York keeps it close. I am happy to take these points.
Lucas note: Normally I'd edit all the "TB's" here, but based on a text by Adam prior to posting, I'm pretty sure he was shooting for the record for "Most TB's in a single pick."Joe: Buccaneers. Tom Brady on Monday Night Football at home? I can see him having a huge game after losing to the WFT.
Joe note: I have a gut feeling for some reason; something about New York and Tom and a former Super Bowl. Switched to the Giants +11.5.
Records So Far
Lucas: 77-73 (5-9 last week)
Adam: 87-63 (8-6 last week)
Joe: 68-82 (3-11 last week)
Geoffrey: 75-75 (3-11 last week)
Jim: 73-77 (5-9 last week)
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