Tuesday, September 14, 2021

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

With two weeks' worth of games in the books and on the sheet, let's look ahead now to Week 3.

There's still a lot of data left to gather given the fact that there's still several weeks of season left to play out, but we're starting to near the end of the bulk of non-conference play. There will still be big jumps for much of the country up to this point.

So as we look at Week 3, we'll add onto the score for Week 2 and compare to where we were just a few days ago.

  1. MAC (1.42; 4.00. LW: 1). With Akron, Bowling Green, and Miami (Ohio) playing FCS games this week, the entire MAC has their FCS games completed. And despite that, the leader in this metric remains at the top. Kent State, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan hitting the road for Power Five games helps with that.
  2. American Athletic (1.64; 3.82. LW: 3). Houston hosts an FBS team, while much of the rest of the conference is on the road for one of the higher scores so far this season. Six games against Power Five foes, four of those on the road, build the bulk of this jump.
  3. Mountain West (1.50; 3.67. LW: 4). Despite a couple conference games, the Mountain West gets a nice boost thanks to Power Five road games by New Mexico, Fresno State, and Nevada. UNLV and Boise State host Power Five teams as well to give an added boost.
  4. Sun Belt (0.80; 3.00. LW: 2). Appalachian State, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, and Texas State all get their FCS Games in this week, but much of the rest of the conference helps make up for it. In particular, Power Five road games for Georgia Southern and Arkansas State bring the average up.
  5. Big Ten (1.36; 2.86. LW: 9). The B1G get a nice boost thanks to only one conference tilt and only Rutgers playing down a level. Power Five road games for Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern give the Big Ten its best score of the season to date and a jump up the list.
  6. Conference USA (0.86; 2.71. LW: 7). With FAU getting an FCS game in, this just leaves Rice as the only school in the conference without a -1 in their row. They, along with Florida International, are on the road against Power Five opponents for the bulk of their scoring. A few conference tilts also bring the average down a tad.
  7. Pac-12 (0.58; 2.58. LW: 5). This gets dragged down by Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona getting their FCS games in this week. Stanford going to Vanderbilt is worth a bunch here, though may not help much in other metrics.
  8. SEC (0.57; 2.50. LW: 6). A couple conference games bring the average down here, as do FCS games for Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. But Auburn heading up to Penn State offsets those losses to help get a semi-respectable score for the week.
  9. Big XII (1.10; 2.30. LW: 10). One conference game brings the average down a tad, but this is more than outweighed by some good games on the docket. West Virginia and Oklahoma host other Power Five schools, with Oklahoma State and Iowa State playing on the road this week.
  10. ACC (0.64; 2.21. LW: 8). A few conference games bring the average down a bit, which to some extent explains the fall to the bottom of the list. Virginia Tech at West Virginia is the headliner here, though a road game for Boston College and Power Five home games for Duke and Miami help. NC State and Syracuse bring the average down though with FCS games. They'll probably end up down here until the final week, when non-conference rivalry games bring the average back up.
To view full spreadsheet, click here.

There are still a handful of teams that have not played an FCS opponent yet. Some will, some won't, but for the most part the impact there is calculated. As a point of reference too, the seven independent schools have an average score of 4.71, which would lead the nation in this metric.

We'll watch the games this weekend and update the Playoff Points numbers early next week!

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