Monday, November 29, 2021

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 13

It's nitty-gritty time. Rivalry week is in the rear view mirror, and with Championship Weekend on the horizon, we have one final season-ending update for these rankings to come.

I don't count championship games for Playoff Points; it skews the numbers too much for the roughly 15 percent of teams fortunate enough to get what is essentially an early playoff game that can unfairly alter the picture for the remaining 85 percent. I do update win/loss totals following those games, which will have smaller, ancillary effects on teams, but not the big leaps that we see on a week in, week out basis with these rankings.

I missed the NCSS ranking post this past week, so I'm going to include it as a part of this final batch of rankings for Playoff Points, just as a point of reference for everyone.

American Athletic
Wins: 6.18 (6th)
NCSS: 5.00 (5th). Houston visited UConn.
PP1: 23.18 (9th)
PP2: 11.40 (9th)
aPP: 1.27 (6th)

ACC
Wins: 6.50 (T-4th)
NCSS: 4.29 (6th). Georgia Tech hosted Georgia, Clemson visited South Carolina, Florida State visited Florida, and Louisville hosted Kentucky.
PP1: 29.50 (4th)
PP2: 18.02 (4th)
aPP: 6.36 (4th)

Big Ten
Wins: 6.86 (3rd)
NCSS: 3.57 (8th). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 33.93 (2nd)
PP2: 19.59 (3rd)
aPP: 15.93 (2nd)

Big 12
Wins: 6.90 (2nd)
NCSS: 2.80 (10th). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 33.80 (3rd)
PP2: 21.56 (1st)
aPP: 13.60 (3rd)

Conference USA
Wins: 5.71 (T-10th)
NCSS: 5.21 (3rd). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 20.57 (11th)
PP2: 10.18 (11th)
aPP: -10.93 (11th)

Independents
Wins: 5.71 (T-10th)
NCSS: 19.14 (N/A)
PP1: 25.86 (6th)
PP2: 11.54 (8th)
aPP: -3.14 (8th)

MAC
Wins: 5.75 (T-8th)
NCSS: 5.75 (1st). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 24.08 (8th)
PP2: 16.11 (7th)
aPP: -8.67 (10th)

Mountain West
Wins: 6.50 (T-4th)
NCSS: 5.50 (2nd). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 28.58 (5th)
PP2: 16.27 (6th)
aPP: 4.75 (5th)

Pac 12
Wins: 5.75 (T-8th)
NCSS: 3.00 (9th). Stanford hosted Notre Dame, and USC hosted BYU.
PP1: 24.25 (7th)
PP2: 16.14 (6th)
aPP: -2.83 (7th)

SEC
Wins: 7.43 (1st)
NCSS: 3.79 (7th). Georgia visited Georgia Tech, South Carolina hosted Clemson, Florida hosted Florida State, and Kentucky visited Louisville.
PP1: 37.07 (1st)
PP2: 21.18 (2nd)
aPP: 20.86 (1st)

Sun Belt
Wins: 5.90 (7th)
NCSS: 5.20 (4th). No non-conference games this past week.
PP1: 22.90 (10th)
PP2: 10.62 (10th)
aPP: -3.40 (9th)

To see the updated numbers, click here.

It's interesting to have the sheer number of ties in the win column this week. The one tie that will be broken is the Pac-12 will finish in sole possession of 8th and knock the MAC down to 9th when the Cal-USC game gets made up next week. The remaining rankings didn't see too much of a shakeup, and should provide some decent clues as to which conferences will likely be getting multiple bids in the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Then with NCSS, obviously given the economics of FBS football and how generally the Group of Five teams end up playing at Power Five opponents for their non-conference games, of course the Group of Five will run away with the top five spots, though the ACC put up a solid performance. The Big 12 and Pac-12 being where they are is a result of their respective nine game conference schedules, while the other Power Five's play eight, resulting in an extra opportunity for points. And the of course, the independents don't get ranked in NCSS because, by definition, none of their games are conference games.

Looking at individual teams, Georgia hit 70 points in PP1 to lead the nation, with Oklahoma State not too far behind at 64 points. Michigan is right behind them with 63, followed right up by Alabama with 62 and Notre Dame rounding out the top five with 59 points. PP2 continues to be weird at the top; one strong win by an otherwise mediocre program can really lift these numbers, hence 7-5 Boise State and 5-7 Texas being 1-2 in these rankings with 28.71 and 28.60 points, respectively. Even the rest of the top five aside from third place Oklahoma State (28.36) is a little odd, being rounded out by 8-4 Wisconsin and 6-6 Auburn, tied at 27.00 points. aPP gets us more so back to normal, with the obvious unbeaten Georgia team at the top with 70 points, followed by Michigan at 61, Oklahoma State and Notre Dame tied at 59, and a tie for fifth between Alabama and Cincinnati, tied at 58 points.

This gives us at least a little bit of a picture, but later this week I'll be looking at the upcoming Championship Weekend games and what each conference's playoff pictures look like.
 

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