2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas! The coalition is getting back to this a couple days late due to the holiday, but we are back one final time in 2019 with our NFL picks as the regular season comes to a close!

It has once again been a fun season of this weekly feature, and I want to thank Adam for his yearlong contributions, as well as Geoffrey and Joe for their fill-in contributions. This column wouldn't be anywhere near as fun without you guys to banter with.

Speaking of these guys, Adam has all but locked the column title up for the year, as well as the group title as a whole. I found myself back in second place after a Week 16 heater, taking five of seven disputed games from Joe. Please note that the standings provided in the first link are a little off due to picking errors both by myself and by Adam; he has one more point than he should, and I have one fewer than I should. It also doesn't take into account games Aiden didn't get a chance to log in and pick, and based on the honor system I gave him credit for a previous week and will do so for his blank Week 16 as well. As of posting time, his Week 16 picks weren't available yet, so his numbers are still old. The correct standings, as well as how we've picked in relation to each other through 15 weeks, can be found here.

Now, Adam sends me his picks to fill out on here, so in theory, I could go opposite of him across the board in an effort to steal the title, but that wouldn't be sporting. He and I disagree on only seven of the final 16 games of the season, so Adam, go ahead and take your victory lap.

Thank you for following along this year! One final time... let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We're down to the second to last week of the NFL season, and with that our quest to pick NFL games against the spread nears its end.

At this point, I think I all but have to concede another odd year victory to Adam. He took four of seven disputed games last week to further solidify his lead, but for most of the group it was a very successful Week 15, even for me. But I now find myself tied for third after a Geoffrey heater pushed him to second, while Jim and I are standing pat together with 32 games to go.

Adam is off gallivanting on a cruise in the Caribbean this week, so I've recruited Joe to fill in for him. With Adam gone, Joe can finally retaliate for all the unprovoked potshots Adam has taken at him this season, so this should be fun.

Joe and I disagree on seven games out of 16. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

We're down to the final three weeks, and the race is getting a little bit tighter as the coalition comes down the stretch!

We were all pretty bunched up together this past week with relatively strong weeks across the board. Adam took four of our seven disputed games last week to push his lead to ten games with 48 to play, so at this point I'm running out of time, but my cushion for second place remains gone, as I'm in a tie with Jim and just one game ahead of Geoffrey for fourth place. It'll be a nail biter for sure.

You can view our ESPN group standings here, bearing in mind that due to various errors on my and Adam's ends, he has one more point than he should and I have one fewer point that I should. The adjusted standings, along with how we've all picked in relation to each other, are here.

Going into Week 15, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 16. Let's get to it!

2019 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

All right, the conference championships are in the books. Let's build a bracket.

I looked over the title games last week, and tried to picture how I anticipated the at large selection process would end up going. And so after a couple hours of deliberation, we're all set for the 2019 Death to the BCS Playoffs! But how do we take the results of so many college football games and pare this down to 16 teams? And why 16?

I ran with the idea that the authors of the book pictured here proposed almost a decade ago as the ultimate counterargument against the corrupt system that was the BCS. The current College Football Playoff is better, but not perfect in my eyes. There's still a level of corruption by the refusal to acknowledge all of the teams at the FBS level. This playoff fixes that by guaranteeing every conference champion a shot at the national title as every other level of NCAA football does. That's ten spots, and I fill out the field with six at large teams to make the numbers even. The best part? The first three rounds are all played at the home stadiums of the higher seeds; no more three-quarter empty bowl games in random places that rob athletic departments blind.

So how do I decide on the six at large teams who make it, and how do I seed the field? I try to be as impartial as I can, and I do that with a number of metrics outlined below and charted here:

• Playoff Points: This is an idea that I originally stole from the IHSA. They use a system of adding up the number of wins by opponents on a team's schedule and use that to try and determine a strength of schedule. This metric comes in three forms.
• First Degree Playoff Points (PP1): The closest to the original idea. For every opponent a team beats, they receive a number of points equal to that opponent's total wins on the season. Those numbers are added for every defeated opponent over the course of a season. As an example, Rutgers went 2-10 on the season with wins over Massachusetts (1-11) and Liberty (7-5), giving them eight PP1 for the year. Obviously, more wins means more chances for points, and wins over better teams means more points from each game. The caveat is that wins over FCS opponents do not award any Playoff Points.
• Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2): An extension of the original idea. PP1 answers the question to an extent of "How good were your opponents?" PP2 extends on that idea, by taking the mean of the PP1 of defeated opponents. Using the Rutgers example again, they beat Massachusetts, who finished with no PP1, and Liberty, who finished with 14. That gives Rutgers a PP2 of 7.00. More wins will generally mean more points, which I why I factor this metric as a mean rather than a sum total. This will result in some quirks; for example this year Miami (Florida) finished with a PP2 of 28.50 despite finishing 6-6; wins over teams like Virginia and Louisville helped bolster this number for them. Again, wins over FCS teams result in a score of zero for that win, which will drag the average down.
• Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP): Similar to PP1, except that for every loss by a team, I subtract the losses by their opponent from the total. This is my way to factor in losses as a metric, something not covered by either of the first two metrics. Obviously, losses to really good teams won't hurt, but losses to mediocre or bad teams will hurt worse. Going once again to the Rutgers example, their eight PP1 points still count, but are offset by each of their ten losses. The loss to undefeated Ohio State didn't cost them any points, but a Week 6 loss to 3-9 Maryland cost them nine points just from that game. All told, Rutgers finished with -33 aPP for the 2019 season. Again, wins over FCS teams don't award any points, but losses to FCS teams apply double the loss penalty. This year, there were three losses by FBS teams to visiting FCS opponents. As an example, Central Arkansas went 9-3 in their regular season (I don't count playoff games for this metric), including a win over Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky lost six aPP due to this loss.
• Computer Rankings: To try and make sure that I'm avoiding any bias, I work other metrics into the fray in the form of computer rankings. While this was a flaw of the BCS, part of the flaw was that margin of victory wasn't factored into theirs. I've found three sets of computer rankings that do, and I average them out to find one average ranking. This ranking is taken from the mean of Jeff Sagarin's rankings, the late David Rothman's rankings, and rankings from All My Sports Teams Suck.
• Results versus playoff teams: This is a fairly new metric kind of formalizing something I already look at to some degree. It's a metric I look at in stages; initially I start only with the ten conference champions as the playoff teams, and look at records for all the candidates at that time. As I add at large teams, I update the records accordingly before picking the next one. This finalizes when the 16 team field is set and I use it to help with seeding. As a general rule, losses aren't killer, and if you play playoff teams you're likely in better shape than if you don't, even if you lose. Wins over other playoff teams though will certainly help your resume.

I then try to organically combine all these factors when I build out the field. You will see that field seeded 1-16 after the jump, followed by my at large selection process and a rationale for how I seeded the field.

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

We're officially three-quarters of the way through the NFL season, which means our contest is winding down, and I'm running out of time.

I spent a couple weeks crowing about my Thanksgiving heater, and early in the slate things looked okay... then I went ice cold in the late afternoon and Sunday night games. Adam took four of six disputed games, including going a perfect 3-0 on hero picks, to push his lead over me back to nine games while I still find myself in a tie for second (Adam's tiebreaker stuff be damned), with Geoffrey just one game behind us in fourth.

You can view the standings here, with a couple asterisks. Adam has one more point on here than he should due to an earlier picking error. Meanwhile, after I've spent years giving Adam crap for screwing up, I finally did by forgetting to log my picks on ESPN, meaning I missed the deadline for the Bears-Lions game on Thanksgiving. So in reality, I have one more point on ESPN than I should. You can see accurate standings, as well as how we've all picked in relation to each other, here.

I've all but resigned myself to the pattern holding firm and Adam winning yet another odd numbered year, but with 64 games left, we can't guarantee that. This week, he and I disagree on seven games out of 16, so I've got a chance to make a dent. Let's get to it!

2019 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Auto Bid Games and At Large Picture

I'm going to take a break from reveling in an all-time upset to look at the highest level of college football as we approach Championship Week.

The regular season is finally over and we're onto what are essentially play-in games for the College Football Playoff, but also for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, based off the system proposed in the book pictured here. As I'd hoped, I was able to track results over the course of the entire season and logged my metrics here. I've also, over the past couple weeks, been looking at computer rankings to prepare myself. I haven't officially built a mock bracket yet, but I at least kind of know where I'm going. I just want to get it in writing before the games are played, with the knowledge that computer rankings may change and with new factors getting added that things may end up changing.

But the point of this post, as in years prior, is to look at the upcoming games to determine automatic bids. Most of these are pretty straightforward. One piece I am adding in each entry this year is how at large odds look for each conference. The exact selection method will be explained next week when I build the bracket.

"I Am a Champion, and I Refuse to Lose"

Photo from The Canton Repository

It's November 26, 1994. I've just turned five years old and am probably playing with toys or something while my parents decorate the house for Christmas. Bill Mack has just led the North Central Cardinals football team to their second consecutive 3-6 season, but closed the campaign with back to back victories. Meanwhile, up in Michigan, defending Division III national champion Mount Union has lost to host Albion College in the second round of the playoffs. The Britons would go on to win the Stagg Bowl two weeks later.

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

With the Thanksgiving holiday here, we're getting the coalition back at a little early in our continued quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

The bad news from last week is that I've been caught from behind as I'm now in a tie for second place with Jim, with just a one game lead on the now fourth place person in Geoffrey. The good news is that, after Adam swept two weeks in a row, I swept our two disputed games last week to gain a little bit of ground.

You can view the ESPN standings here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on there than he's supposed to. You can also view how we've picked in relation to each other here. Joe made a crack about matching Adam's picks (which he can do based on how the column works), but is that really the best strategy when you're solidly in fifth place and 14 games out of the lead?

Meanwhile, I'm counting on a repeat of last year and going on a Thanksgiving heater. By talking it up for the past few weeks, I've done one of two things: either jinxed myself horribly to continue the pattern of alternating who wins the column between me and Adam, or spoken into existence my glorious comeback. There is no in between.

As we go into the holiday, Adam and I disagree on six games out of the full 16 game slate. From all of us here at Confessions Of A Sportscaster, have a Happy Thanksgiving! Let's go.

Game Notes: (MBK) Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/26/19)

Final Score
Benedictine 56, NCC 49

Game Summary
This one started okay as the Cardinals (2-2) scored the game's first five points. But the Eagles (5-1) went into heat check mode, with three consecutive threes to grab control. The Cardinals would score the next four to tie the game again, but an 8-0 Eagle run forced a North Central timeout and it was back into chase mode. That eight point lead was the high water mark for the half and the Cardinals managed to fight back to within two at 24-22 at the break. Coming into the second half though it was the Eagles who took the initiative, scoring the half's first five points. The Cardinals managed to make it a one possession game a couple times, but every time Benedictine answered. North Central pulled within one again at 41-40, but a three point play followed by a three a couple minutes later pushed the Eagle lead back to seven, and the Cardinals never got within four the rest of the night.

Key Players

• Mike Boatright (BEN): 6-15 FG (4-10 3PT); 16 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 2 blk, 1 stl. Not a bad box score. The relative of Aurora basketball legend Ryan Boatright was the one who went into Heat Check Mode at the outset, hitting those three three's to get the Eagles back after that early 5-0 deficit. He struggled the rest of the night, but those threes helped set the tone, and I'm a little surprised to see how much more he filled the stat sheet.
• Nick Kosich (BEN): 5-8 FG (2-4 3PT), 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast. I almost went with Eric Grygo here (16 points and 6 boards on 6-11 shooting), but Kosich played a bigger role late I feel like. Serious early foul trouble (he had three in the first half) limited his effectiveness early as he went into the break with just two points, but he had two major daggers late in the second half. With the score at 41-40, he scored all six of those points in the key run, including that three as part of a six point swing (Mike Pollack had a corner three blocked on the preceding possession).
• Connor Raridon (NCC): 7-12 FG (2-6 3PT), 6-6 FT; 22 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. I feel like this was a "quiet" 22 for Connor. He spotted up from deep a few times and had arguably the best night from deep of anyone (except Mike Pollack, who went 3-7 from deep), and spent much of the rest of the night in his office down low. While the Eagles did a pretty good job limiting him, I was still surprised to look at the box and see how many point he did put up; getting to the line half a dozen times helps.

Key Stats

• NCC: 6-33 3PT (18.2%). One night after destroying Rose-Hulman from beyond the arc, the Cardinals went ice cold from out there. Benedictine did a better job defending them I feel like, but there were a number of open looks missed. It took the Cardinals almost 16 and a half minutes to hit their first after missing something like their first 13. They won't shoot this poorly every night, but you can't survive against good teams when you shoot like that.
• BEN: Outscored NCC in the paint 28-14. This is where Eric Grygo came into play to some degree. There was a degree of a size advantage here, but not a major one. They just managed to get to the basket and cash in where the Cardinals couldn't.

Final Thoughts

There are two sequences that will haunt me from last night. Down 49-42 with the ball, North Central had a great chance as Blaise Meredith beat his man and had a wide open layup... but missed it. The other came in the final minute with the Cardinals down four. Matt Cappelletti blocked an Eric Grygo layup, but the Cardinal offense bogged down as no one seemed to want to take the shot. Somehow Connor Raridon got free right under the basket and got a great pass from the opposite corner... only to lose the handle and turn it over. Convert one of those chances and the Cardinals might win; convert both and I feel like they do.

Instead, the Eagles took back the Bill Warden-Tony LaScala Trophy as they won the Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue for the first time since 2015-16 when they made the national title game. I went into this game thinking the Cardinals would win by roughly what the final margin turned out to be, but even with some deference to the Eagles going in, I definitely underestimated them. They're legit, and should be in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament when we get to February and March. For the Cardinals though, it's a quality loss... but the quality losses have to turn into quality wins at some point.

The Cardinals close their season opening homestand at 2-2, which is not great. Now they spend a ton of time on the road, as their next eight will be played away from Gregory Arena. That starts this weekend as the Cardinals head to Kalamazoo to play Olivet and the hosts, then open CCIW play the following week up in Kenosha against a Carthage team that has quickly turned into a conference and national dark horse.

Game Notes: (MBK) Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology @ North Central College (11/25/19)

Final Score
NCC 77, RHIT 54

Game Summary
The Engineers (2-3) had a good first couple minutes, winning the opening tip and taking a 9-6 lead just four and a half minutes in. Then the bottom fell out as the Cardinals (2-1) shook off their ten day rust and began to open fire from deep. Leading 16-14 after an Engineer three, the Cardinals went on a 15-4 run to take a double digit lead and never looked back, with a Connor Raridon jumper beating the halftime buzzer to give North Central a 42-26 advantage at the break. The Cardinals effectively put the game away a minute into the second half when, after Blaise Meredith hit a three, Aiden Chang came from out of nowhere to steal the inbounds pass and fed Matt Cappelletti for a three-point play, which prompted Engineer coach Rusty Lloyd to make a wholesale line change. The Engineers would climb back to within 15, but a 9-0 run served as the final dagger. North Central would lead by as many as 29 as Todd Raridon was able to empty his bench in the final minutes.

Key Players

• Will Clausel (NCC): 7-9 FG (3-4 3PT), 2-2 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast. The Swiss Army Knife continues his torrid play to start the season. He went 5-5, including 3-3 from deep in the first half, and I caught him grinning after hitting his third as he helped his team grab firm control of this one. He was a key piece last year, and is only getting better as the sixth man on this year's squad.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 4-9 FG (2-6 3PT), 1-1 FT; 11 pts, 7 reb (4 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. It was such a good team effort last night that it was hard to pick a second guy from the Cardinals, but coming off a 47 point effort, Cap settled into his more traditional role of an inside-out big. He launched several times from his sweet spot in the corner, but only managed to hit a pair of them. His seven rebounds though tied a game high with Connor Raridon, and he had the and-one that all but sealed the deal early in the second half.
• Eli Combs (RHIT): 3-7 FG (1-2 3PT), 2-2 FT; 9 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast. With leading scorer Craig McGee out of commission, the Engineers needed someone to step up, but no Rose-Hulman player cracked double figures, with Combs leading the way, albeit somewhat inefficiently. He also battled some foul trouble in this one.

Key Stats

• NCC: 15-36 3PT (41.7%). Rose-Hulman is a fairly big, physical team. They did a pretty good job limiting the Cardinals in the paint (they had just 16). Of course, this opened up plenty of opportunities on the perimeter... which the Cardinals gladly took advantage of. Their 36 attempts are the most since they took 42 in a loss to Carthage in 2016, while the 15 make are tied for the fourth most in a game in program history. Getting a game plan right in my wheelhouse and succeeding? Always fun.
• RHIT: Outrebounded by NCC 38-27. I mentioned that they're a big, physical team, but they almost didn't play like it on the glass. Their starting lineup featured a trio of 6'2" guards and two 6'7" forwards. On paper, they should have had the advantage. In reality, the Cardinals did a good job boxing out and controlled the glass against a bigger team, something they've done before, but it was a little surprising to look at the box and see the disparity be that wide.

Final Thoughts

Rose-Hulman is not a bad team. They've been competitive in the HCAC, and the Cardinals beat them in their lone other matchup in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament. I figured this would be a win, but that the Engineers would make it a good game. I was a little surprised to see the Cardinals dominate the way they did. But when you're hot, you're hot, and the Cardinals were hot most of the night last night.

It's a good win, but the Cardinals don't have a ton of time to celebrate. They're right back at it tonight as The Battle of Chicago/Maple Avenue is renewed at Gregory Arena when Benedictine comes calling.

Game Notes: (WBK) Concordia University-Wisconsin @ North Central College (11/20/19)

Final Score
NCC 62, CUW 43

Game Summary
I was a little nervous at the outset of this one, as after the Cardinals (2-2) scored the game's first basket a minute in, the Falcons (1-1) responded with a 7-0 run. But that was their high water mark of the day, as after Concordia took an 8-7 lead, the Cardinals scored eight straight to close out the quarter, then tacked on nine more in the first few minutes of the second quarter. The Falcons eventually stopped the bleeding, but not before the Cardinals pushed the lead as high as 20 before taking a 31-14 lead into the locker room. The second half saw the Falcon offense get going a little bit, but the Cardinals had an answer pretty much every time, as they took a 43-26 lead into the final frame. North Central led by as many as 21 in the final frame, with the Falcons cutting it to a dozen just over halfway through the fourth, but a couple threes and some free throws were enough to ice the game away.

Key Players

• Alanna Newsome (NCC): 6-13 FG (2-4 3PT), 1-1 FT; 15 pts, 2 reb, 1 stl. It wasn't the most efficient outing, but it was a solid one for the sophomore as she was able to get to the basket a number of times with varying degrees of success. But she shot well from deep and played pretty good defense. All told, a good evening.
• Maya Walls (NCC): 6-7 FG (2-3 3PT); 14 pts, 6 reb, 2 blk. Maya had a really good night. North Central ran a wheel-type play a couple times where Maya came around and cut kind of back door to the basket for a wide open layup. She did some damage on the perimeter as well, playing a good inside-out game on offense, while also playing really good interior defense against a physical opponent.
• Haydn Braun (NCC): 4-7 FG (4-5 3PT), 2-2 FT; 14 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast. Haydn took on the role of sniper in this game, hitting one that tied the game at seven early, one during the 17-0 run, one in the third to push the lead to 19, and the exclamation point at the end last night. I think the number that impresses me more, given her size: five rebounds, good for third-best on the team.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded CUW 45-39. I had a hard time picking out a stat for the Cardinals, almost going with their 22 points off 13 Concordia turnovers, but I like the rebounding number. For a team that typically loses the rebounding battle, going up against a relatively big, physical team to win the battle on the boards like that is a good sign. I mentioned that I was impressed by Hadyn's five, but you got 13 between your two starting forwards (Mitrese Smith had a game-high seven), and everyone who played had at least two, with all but two logging at least three boards. That's a good team effort.
• CUW: 15-59 FG (25.4%), 1-13 3PT (7.7%), 12-24 FT (50.0%). And this doesn't do the numbers justice. The Falcons were an awful 3-24 from the field in the first half, including 0-7 from beyond the arc. Going 8-14 from the line in the first 20 minutes was the only saving grace for their offense. We got regression to the mean in the second half, because no team is going to shoot that poorly for 40 minutes, but that's still an eye-popping final line.

Final Thoughts

I mentioned in the last game notes that Natali Dimitrova was out, and she was again; I thought I heard something about a broken foot, but I don't know what the truth of that is. Regardless, given the two tough losses the Cardinals were coming off, they needed to have this one, and went and got it in pretty convincing fashion. The defense was good, accounting for part of the poor shooting night, but the Falcons also missed a ton of open looks. 43 points is the best defensive performance for the Cardinals since 2011 (pre-System, which makes sense).

Hopefully this gives the Cards something to build off of as they continue their homestand. They host UW-Stevens Point on Saturday.

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

The coalition continues its quest in picking NFL games and... wait a minute, where did you all come from?

I didn't have an awful week in the grand scheme of things, but the gap between me and everyone else has shrunk while the gap between Adam and I has only grown. For the second straight week, he swept our disputed games and I now find myself a season high nine back of the lead. That Thanksgiving heater can't come soon enough.

You can view our standings on ESPN here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on there than he should. Correct standings, as well as how we've picked in comparison to each other, can be found here. One question Adam had was how we suck at consensus games, but if you look back at prior years, we're at about what our usual rate is.

As I try in earnest to get back into contention while Adam continues to rub salt in my open wound from losing nine straight disputed games over the past two weeks, I don't have much of an opportunity to gain ground as we only disagree on two games out of 14. Let's see if I can climb back into it.

Game Notes: (WBK) University of Dubuque @ North Central College (11/16/19)

Final Score
Dubuque 80, NCC 75

Game Summary
Things got off to a good start on Megan Niklas Day as the Cardinals (1-2) opened the scoring and, other than a brief 2-2 tie, led for the entire opening quarter by as many as nine and finishing the opening stanza with a 19-13 advantage. Just a couple minutes into the second quarter, the advantage was double digits, with a high water mark of a 32-17 advantage with about six and a half minutes to go in the frame. But then the Spartans (2-0) slowly started to claw their way back, getting within seven late in the quarter before the Cardinals pushed the advantage back to double figures, going into the break up 45-34. But then the Cardinals came back out ice cold, seeing a 12 point lead evaporate in a 17-3 run. The Cardinals managed to grab the lead right back and took a 57-53 lead into the final frame, but the Spartans pushed again, opening the frame with an extended 15-2 run and eventually going up by as many as 13. The Cardinal offense came back to life too late; North Central would get back within three, but a pair of Dubuque free throws sealed the deal.

Key Players

• Tabria Thomas (DUB): 6-8 FG (0-1 3PT), 3-6 FT; 15 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast, 4 stl. Thomas had quiet first half; she played 10 minutes with limited effectiveness due to some foul trouble, but broke out in the second with a perfect 20 minutes inside the arc and 11 of her 15 points. Three of her four steals also came after the intermission.
• Kennedy Litvinoff (DUB): 3-4 FG (2-2 3PT), 4-4 FT; 12 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 3 stl. Litvinoff came off the bench and did most of her damage in the second half as well, scoring 10 of 12 points after the break. One of her threes came during that crucial 15-2 run that put the Spartans up seven.
• Alanna Newsome (NCC): 5-16 FG (3-6 3PT), 9-11 FT; 22 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl. Alanna continues to develop nicely in her sophomore year, and did well shooting from beyond the arc. Her inside game though needs a little work, as a 2-10 day from two point range is not good enough. She did well at the free throw line, which is good, and hopefully a sign of good things to come.

Key Stats

• NCC: 7-33 FG (21.2%), 3-11 3PT (27.3%), 13-22 FT (59.1%) in the 2nd half. This is... less than ideal. The third quarter was actually worse, as the Cardinals only hit two field goals all period, and it allowed the Spartans to come back. I think I counted between the late third and early fourth quarters four wide open layups the Cardinals missed. Those eight points, combined with nine missed free throws for the half... you do the math.
• DUB: 48 bench points. I normally won't go over bench points, but when your reserves log 60 percent of your scoring for a non-System team, it raises an eyebrow.. That of course includes Litvinoff mentioned above, but four other players scored between eight and 11 points for the game off the bench.

Final Thoughts

Friday night I saw the women's team in attendance for the men's game against Greenville, and I was a little alarmed to see players in walking boots. One of them, Natali Dimitrova, did not dress on Saturday. Had she been present, I'd like to think that her good post game on both ends of the floor would have made enough of a difference. But even so, this is a game you have to win... and they couldn't do it. This team continues to struggle to put together a full 40 minutes. They continue to show though that they're never really out of a game, given the late rally, but some better play earlier in the game probably would have turned the tide. The Cardinals are back at it tomorrow as they welcome Concordia-Wisconsin to Gregory Arena.

Game Notes: (MBK) Greenville University @ North Central College (11/15/19)

Final Score
NCC 122, Greenville 103

Game Summary
No, that's not a typo. Getting right to work with The System, the Panthers (1-2) used an early 9-0 run after surrendering a basket on the opening possession to take control. But the Cardinals (1-1) clawed their way back, finally taking their first lead with about 12 and a half minutes left in the half. The teams would trade advantages over the next couple minutes before a 10-2 Cardinal run gave them a seven point lead, but eight straight by the Panthers eliminated it. The Cardinals finally got a little breathing room again right before the half, taking a 47-42 lead into a much needed intermission. The Panthers would tie the game at 49 early in the second half, but the Cardinals responded with a 9-0 run extended to a 14-2 run to take firm control. Greenville would get no closer than seven the rest of the way as North Central began to pull away, going up by 20 with 11 and a half to play, and from that point on would lead by no less than 12, as eventually Todd Raridon was able to go to his reserves.

Key Players

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 6-8 FG, 6-7 FT; 18 pts, 15 reb (2 off), 12 ast, 1 blk. That's a triple-double, by the way; the first in NCC men's basketball history. To an extent, it can come with an asterisk: against a non-System team he's not pulling down 15 rebounds, but it's his ninth career double digit assist game and one off his career high (and program record), and most of his points came in halfcourt sets. Maybe more important though: going up against a pressure defense when primary ball handlers are going to turn it over a bunch, he had just four, good for a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is outstanding. Add it to the list of cool things I've gotten to announce.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 22-26 FG (2-5 3PT), 1-3 FT; 47 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Okay, this one gets a definite asterisk. Cap's previous career high was 35, when he lit up Husson last year at the D3Hoops.com Classic in Vegas. But Friday he was 20-21 from inside the arc, almost all of them right around the basket. He got a couple dunks in the second half as the Cardinals were pulling away, and most of the rest were layups. Almost all of these can be atributed to The System: with the Panthers gambling in the backcourt and getting their share of takeaways, in cases where the Cardinals were able to break it, Cap was often alone going to the basket and had an easy bucket. Forwards always have big scoring nights against System teams... but this was a monster one.
• Henry Johnson (GRE): 7-10 FG (2-3 3PT), 1-2 FT; 17 pts, 1 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 1 stl. It's hard to pick just one guy off a System team, so I'll go with their leading scorer, who was efficient from the floor, even if he didn't do a ton else.

Key Stats

• NCC: 76 points in the paint, 47 fast break points. I'll go with both of these, as both are indicators that you played a System team. Yeah, they turned the ball over a bunch, but the tradeoff was a bunch of easy looks at the basket.
• GRE: 25 turnovers. I'll go over System numbers in a moment, so I wanted to look at something else. This was very reminiscent of NCC women's games running the System; the Cardinals often had a ton of turnovers too, so this was really no exception. Of course they cause the Cardinals fits, but they got in their own way a few times too.

Greenville System Watch

• Wholesale Line Changes: 20-25. I'm bringing back this feature after going away from it after a while with the NCC women. Greenville's guys played longer stretches before a fresh five came to the table than the women did. Usually with the women shifts were maybe 40-60 seconds; Friday night they were closer to two minutes before a fresh group came in.
• NCC Turnovers: 35. This is to be expected. The full court pressure gave the Cardinals fits, especially early in the game; North Central had 19 turnovers in the first half. Of the 35 giveaways for the game, 21 came off steals; Chris Jackson paced the team with five, Riley Simmons and Sontiago Grady each had four, and Barry Nixon logged three. Those 35 turnovesr led directly to 36 Greenville points, which is... less than ideal.
• GRE 3PT: 16-53 (30.2%). Of Greenville's 91 shot attempts, 53 came from beyond the arc. This is normal for a System team, and the percentage is pretty consistent with what you can expect. They were at about 36 percent going into the game, and struggled a bit thanks to good Cardinal defense. The Panthers hit a few early to get that early lead, but finished 6-25 in the first half, a big reason why they trailed.

Final Thoughts

It's hard to make too many conclusions based off of this game. I was always used to announcing for a System team, so to have the shoe on the other foot is a little different. Cap likely won't have another 40 point game (maybe 30 on a great shooting night, but that's about it), and Connor probably won't log another triple-double. But against an opponent you should beat, the Cardinals ultimately took care of business, and now they don't have to worry about a System team again until potentially the NCAA Tournament. It was a good way to right the ship after a season-opening loss. The Cardinals are currently in the midst of a fairly long layoff, but continue the homestand on Monday when Rose-Hulman comes to town.

The System: A Retrospective and a Preview

I don't normally write a preview-type piece for an individual game, especially for a non-conference game. But I feel like in advance of tonight's men's game against Greenville, I need to write a little something. But it's not a preview in the traditional sense. I also need to take a look back at five years that were a hell of a lot of fun.

A good primer in advance of reading this piece is this 2017 piece from D3Hoops.com. There are some good quotes included from former North Central coaches Michelle Roof and Doug Porter as well.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

We're onto Week 11 of the NFL season, and the coalition continues to chug along in our quest to pick games against the spread!

I mentioned last week that it wasn't ideal for Adam or I. Adam rebounded, I didn't; he swept our six disputed games and now has a season-high six game lead. I'm still holding onto second place, but not by a ton. At this point, I'm all but counting on a second straight Thanksgiving heater.

Meanwhile, Adam made another mistake this past week, but it worked out kind of in our favor. He picked the Steelers over the Rams in the column, but picked the Rams on ESPN. This counteracts one of his two screwups from the week before, so he now only has one more point on ESPN than he should. You can view correct standings, as well as how we've picked in relation to each other, here.

As I attempt to get back on track, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 14. Let's see if I can climb back into the race!

Game Notes: (MBK) UW-Oshkosh @ North Central College (11/12/19)

Final Score
UW-Oshkosh 76, NCC 66

Game Summary
The first few minutes were a microcosm of the contest as the Titans (2-0) punched the Cardinals in the mouth by opening on a 9-2 run, forcing a Todd Raridon timeout. The Cardinals (0-1) were able to rally, getting it back to a one possession game once before the Titans got hot, pushing the lead as high as 13 before settling into the break with a 45-33 lead. The Cardinals came out strong to start the second half, dropping the deficit to seven before a Titan heat check got the lead back up to 13, but the Cardinals refused to go away, pulling back within six with just over seven minutes to play. But in a key sequence late, after the Cardinals were down seven, missed two open threes to cut it to four, and a jumper-stop-dagger three sequence put the game away.

Key Players

• Eric Peterson (UWO): 7-11 FG (2-3 3PT), 2-5 FT; 18 pts, 12 reb (1 off), 5 ast. On a night where Oshkosh's bigs struggled, the Titans needed their perimeter guys to step up... and step up they did. Peterson was able to get to the basket with relative ease tonight, hit a couple key threes, and dominated the glass amongst the trees. The Batavia native posted career highs in each of the aforementioned categories.
• Adam Fravert (UWO): 6-13 FG (3-6 3PT), 0-2 FT; 15 pts, 8 reb (1 off), 2 blk, 2 stl. Similar thing here for Fravert. He got some easy looks at the basket and hit a few key threes as well. It was Fravert's triple in that late sequence that served as the dagger.
• Will Clausel (NCC): 6-9 FG (0-3 3PT), 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 blk. On a night where the stars struggled some offensively, the Cardinals needed a spark off the bench, and Will stepped up. While he struggled from deep, he was able to take advantage of drives to the basket. Additionally, his post defense against Oshkosh's bigs who had a major size advantage on him was phenomenal and helped keep the Cardinals in the game.

Key Stats

• NCC: 6-23 3PT (26.1%). Sometimes it's the simple things. On a night where Oshkosh was hot from deep, the Cardinals couldn't match. They'll shoot better as the year goes on, I'm sure; Cap won't go 1-6 every night, and Mike Pollack won't miss four straight after making his first.
• UWO: 6-10 3PT in the first half (60.0%). It's pretty much this simple. The Titans got hot early and that helped them build the lead. In a game where a lot of other things were even (Oshkosh won the rebounding battle 40-39 and had 40 points in the paint to NCC's 38), things like this make the difference.

Final Thoughts

Oshkosh is the defending champion, and despite losing a couple key pieces from their title team, they still brought back a significant chunk of last year's core, and it showed. This team is elite, and they played up to it in a tough environment. They have a legitimate shot at repeating this March.

From North Central's perspective, the other big problem was they committed a few dumb turnovers. While they only resulted in nine Titan points, it set a bad tone. I think this team will clean it up though. Big picture wise, getting a tough test like this to open the year will be good for them. Oshkosh will be regionally ranked come February, and a regionally ranked loss is still a good resume builder. This team should be fine.

It was great to see Aiden Chang return to the floor last night. I put a little extra into introducing him, and I even choked up a bit when I got to him. He played fairly well in his first game back, and I'm sure getting that first one out of the way helps.

The Cardinals have a couple days to reset, but they're going to have to be ready. Greenville comes to town on Friday, and North Central will have to be ready to run against a System team. There's going to be well over 300 points scored on Friday and I can't wait.

2019-20 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Friday we checked in on the women. Today, we flip on over to North Central's men's team. They get a little bit later of a start to their season, and were extremely late in posting the official team roster, so I partially wanted to hold off for that.

But the anticipation for this group is really high, as are the expectations. Let's see what the outlook for the season is.

2019-20 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

With the calendar now flipped to November, the weather getting colder, and the time change meaning it's dark way earlier than it's supposed to be, that means it's about time for me to get back to one of my favorite times of year: basketball season!

The season officially tips off this weekend; the women get things started before the men do, so I'll do my first of two season previews and take a look at what the North Central College women's basketball team has on tap for the next few months!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

As we move onto the second half of the 2019 NFL season, the coalition chugs on in its quest to successfully pick games against the spread!

Last week was... less than ideal for our group. Adam and I were both due for clunkers, and while I took two of our three disputed games to tie Adam once again, our lead on the rest of the group has shrunk to just two games.

You will notice that the standings in the link I just provided will differ from what's on our tracker as well as the official standings at the end of this post. Aiden forgot to pick almost every game a few weeks back, but Adam was able to get me his retroactive picks where he went 5-9 and has a more respectable record. But it wouldn't be a Pigskin Pick 'Em contest without Adam accidentally picking the wrong team on ESPN. He informed me early on Sunday that when he originally filled his picks out he took the Chiefs over the Vikings before changing his mind for the column and forgetting to change it back on ESPN. I also noticed when numbers didn't add up that he accidentally took the Broncos on ESPN instead of the Browns. Unfortunately, these didn't cancel each other out, which would have been great; instead Adam has two more wins than he does in reality because the column is the official pick.

Anyway, onto this week. Adam and I disagree on six games out of 13. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

During the noon slate on Sunday, we will officially hit the halfway point of the 2019 NFL season. But with a little over half the season to go, the race is starting to heat up a little bit as the coalition continues its quest to pick NFL games!

I'd have to go back and look, but I think collectively this was the best week we've ever had as a group; going 4-0 in consensus games probably for the first time ever helps with that. But the tiers are starting to look a little closer together even though Adam and I still have a decent lead on the rest of the group. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Remember that Aiden forgot to get some picks in on ESPN, but we credited him with five extra wins from that week since he didn't know what had happened.

There is no longer a tie atop the group though, as Adam took three of the five disputed games last week and Geoffy took two of three to win the week; this gives Adam a one game lead again and Geoffy has a one game lead on Jim for third place, but he's five back of me for second.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

After accelerating things for the past couple weeks, the coalition is back on its normal schedule as we resume our quest to pick games against the spread!

Groupthink prevailed to an extent last week, and it ended up creating a deadlock: Adam took two of our three disputed games to move back into a tie for first as my uncontested lead lasted all of four days. He was happy to pull back into a tie for first, but wasn't happy with how the spread gods said no to what he thought were solid picks.

What I found funny was, after confirming that fact with Adam on Sunday afternoon, Joe texted that he would be right up there with us... if you consider ten games out "right up there." Now I refuse to count him out; I wasn't looking great going into Thanksgiving last year, then had the best week in contest history to get right back into contention. But leapfrogging four people and picking up ten games is a tall order, even with more than half the season still to go. It doesn't help that Joe generally... doesn't go hero; over the past 24 weeks of the contest, he has made exactly two hero picks. And it's those hero picks that have really helped Adam be in the tie for first, with an 8-4 record in those games, best in the group (technically tied with a 2-1 Geoffrey, but larger sample size wins). I'm riding a 10-2 mark in games where the group has split evenly on who we've picked to my spot at the top with Adam. You can view a full breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other here.

You will also notice that, if you look at the record on here as well as on that spreadsheet, there's a major discrepancy with our ESPN standings. You may remember last week that Aiden forgot to pick every game other than the Thursday night contest in Week 6. In the interest of fair play combined with him not having any clue how those games played out, Adam got his picks for that week and found that he retroactively went 5-9. I've taken out the note about Aiden forgetting from last week's post and credited him the five points ESPN doesn't have logged for him.

I also got a little confused in prepping stuff for this week. Talking with Adam when he was in town last week, he's going to be on vacation one week in December where I'll need a backup for him. I mistook that for being this week and lined up Geoffrey Clark as a backup. Since I asked him to go through the effort I'll include his picks for this week as well, and hopefully he'll be able to join me again in December. Either way, I promise jabs about Jeff Blauser will be kept to a minimum.

This week Adam and I disagree on just five games out of 15; Geoffy and I only dispute three. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 7

We're well into October now as the coalition continues its quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

We saw a little bit of tier evolution in Week 6, as well as a changing of the guard. The big issue, and something that happened last year as well, was that Aiden missed the deadline for a bunch of picks and thus "officially" went 0-14 last week, but for the purposes of record keeping, it doesn't go down as the worst week ever.

Meanwhile, up in that upper tier, I swiped six of eight disputed games from Adam to take over the group lead. It's a tenuous one game advantage, and it may not last, but I will enjoy it while I can. Adam apparently turned into Matt Nagy, claiming he got too cute last week and saw it blow up in his face. You can view the full group standings here, and how the entire group has picked in relation to each other here.

This week, the disparities fall mostly by the wayside and groupthink prevails as Adam and I only disagree on three games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 6

Now a little ways past the quarter pole, the coalition chugs along as we continue our quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

At this point, the group seems to be fully separated into tiers. It's your featured columnists... and everybody else a sizable chunk behind us. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Suffice it to say that, based on the tiers, looking at frequency and success of hero picks have been one of the reasons why Adam and I have found a little separation.

I buried the lede a little bit here from last week. Adam and I tied the record for number of disputed games with a dozen last week; the only other time that happened was back in 2016 (thanks to Adam for doing the research), but that was with a full 16 game slate. I'd argue disputing 12 out of 15 is the tiebreaker. Anyway, with that much disparity, I hinted that we may see a flip in the standings; go figure we split the disputed games evenly. That means Adam's three game lead over me holds, but to quote Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."

This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

With the conclusion of tonight's game, we will hit the quarter pole of the 2019 NFL season. And with that thought in mind, the coalition works its way into its fifth week of work!

The early slate was not kind to much of the group, but we all rebounded fairly well in the late afternoon slate and beyond. Adam and I, for our part, split our eight disputed games as he retains his three game column and group lead. We're starting to separate ourselves from the pack a little bit, though Week 4 saw a surge from Aiden to create a little bunch at the bottom of the group. You can view the full group standings here, and a comparison to how we've all picked compared to each other here.

We have another bye this week, so of the 15 tilts on the slate, Adam and I disagree on a record 12 of them. Needless to say... some major changes in the standings could be forthcoming. Let's get to the picks!

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Championship

128 teams entered. Over six thousand games later, we're down to just two teams as we renew our quest to find the greatest MLB team of all time as part of the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions. Every World Series champion got an invitation to the fun, and every franchise without a title got at least one iteration from their history into the festivities. They then went through a grueling 90 game double round robin to build up a significant sample size.

That accounted for 5,760 of the 6000-plus games, but that was just the beginning as I began a single elimination tournament from the top eight teams from each of the groups I'd built out for this tournament. Five rounds later, we have our top two teams left standing. And the fun part for this: we get an old rematch.

On one side was arguably the favorite coming into this whole thing. They were the best team in the 2017 Tournament of Champions, but proceeded to need every possible game to win the Championship of Champions. For a title defense, the 2016 Cubs seemed poised to be a dominant force once again, but ran into some slight hiccups. Despite losing their final four series in group play, the Cubs went 54-36, good for second place in Group H. They swept the 1919 Cincinnati Reds in the opening round of the postseason before needing winner-take-all games at home to finish off the 1972 Oakland Athletics and 1938 New York Yankees. A quarterfinal sweep over the 1944 St. Louis Cardinals, winners of their own group, and a six game victory of the legendary 1927 New York Yankees, have the Cubs back to within four wins of further immortality.

On the other side was a team that, in 2017, tied for the third-best record among my National League representatives, but was relegated to Wild Card status for the postseason. They won the Wild Card series that year before dropping a heartbreaking fifth game on a walk-off homer to... the 2016 Cubs. The 1975 Cincinnati Reds came back two years later placed in a different group, and worked to a 57-33 record... which unfortunately for them was only good for third in their group as they finished just one game behind the co-leaders. But the Reds won their first two series in four games apiece over the 2004 Boston Red Sox and 1912 Boston Red Sox, respectively, before punching their ticket to the quarterfinals with a sweep of the group champion 1924 Washington Senators. Cincinnati followed that up with a six game victory over the 1984 Detroit Tigers to remove the DH from the rest of the tournament, then won a hard-fought seven game series over the 1953 New York Yankees to get one more crack at the team that knocked them off two years ago.

This time around, the Reds will get home field advantage by virtue of their better Group Play record. It's a best of seven series played in a 2-3-2 format, so the Reds will get a little more leeway than the best-of-five they had to play in two years ago. In prior rounds of this postseason I've just gone with results and records. This time, I'm going to do brief writeups of each game in this series. You can view the bracket to date, as well as scores and standings from as far back as group play, here. All simulations for the entire Tournament of Champions are provided by WhatIfSports.com. And so, one final time this year... let's play ball!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 4

It wasn't the greatest week on the whole for the coalition, but we nonetheless chug along into the fourth week of the NFL season!

All but one of us finished below .500 for the week last week, and while I don't necessarily want to say that we're seeing some separation... we kind of are. Adam took five of our eight disputed games from last week to extend his lead over me, but I remain in second place with a slight cushion. You can view the full standings here, and how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

We have our first set of byes this week to cut the slate down to 15 games.  Adam calls this week:

"The great reversal for about the next 3-4 weeks... where the oddsmakers over-correct and therefore cause many people to pick the wrong side of a game. While I am tempted to do an opposite week, with my [three] game lead I am going to just be more thoughtful about the picks."

As part of "The Great Reversal," Adam and I disagree on eight games. Onward to the picks!

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

And then there were four.

I started this project all the way back in April with 128 teams, including every World Series champion dating back to 1903. After 90 games for each team, that got narrowed down to 64. And after four grueling rounds, we've finally advanced to the semifinals, and there are some big names here. Murderer's Row is here, along with another Yankee iteration a generation later, the Big Red Machine has advanced after having to settle for a Wild Card and getting bounced in the NLDS two years ago, and our defending Champion of Champions in the 2016 Cubs round out what's left.

To narrow the field down to just two teams, we will play a pair of best-of-seven series in a 2-3-2 format, with home field advantage going to the team with the better group play record (and as luck would have it, seedings match that as well). With all of our 1973-onward American League teams gone, so is the designated hitter for the remainder of the tournament.

You can view the bracket to date as well as how group play went here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition chugs along as we advance into the third week of the 2019 NFL season!

Two weeks in we're all still fairly close together but a little bit of a gap is starting to take shape with 32 games in the books. Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, which has him still leading me by the narrowest of margins, but we both had excellent Week 2's.

Hero picks have come back down to earth, but only slightly; as a group we're 50-50 on those as well as on consensus picks (though the one that happened last week was on a technicality since Aiden forgot to get his picks in for the Thursday night game, so his Week 2 mark is a little bit misleading.) But the hero mark has been trending up since I started keeping track in 2016. You can view a full breakdown of the group's picks in relation to each other here. Our group's standings and weekly pick grids can be found here as well.

This week, Adam and I disagree on half of this week's 16 tilts. Let's get to it!

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Quarterfinals

We're down to the final eight teams as the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions rolls on!

We've finally moved beyond the confines of group play, as the 90 round robin games and three playoff rounds were enough. We now have group "champions" as we move on to the tournament's quarterfinals.

There was a good blend of chalk and upsets through the first three rounds, as only three round robin group winners have advanced to this stage alongside a two, three, four, five, and six seed apiece. Some of the most legendary teams are included in this group, including a playoff team from the 2017 tournament as well as the defending Champion of Champions.

At this point, for all intents and purposes, seedings based on finish in group play are being dropped and home field advantage will go to the team with the better record from group play. For this round, the higher "seeds" did have better records, but I'm making this change for this round onward because I think the sample size speaks for itself. For the remainder of the tournament as well, we're expanding the rounds from best of five to best of seven to be played in a 2-3-2 format as used in Major League Baseball's postseason. We have one series that this will impact in this round, but since the 1984 Detroit Tigers played in the DH era, all of their home games will be played with a designated hitter. All other games will have the pitcher batting ninth.

You can view the updated bracket, as well as scores and standings from group play, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play ball!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

One week and 16 games are in the books as the coalition rolls on to the second week of the NFL season!

Week 1 saw a lot of balance, but it also brought a situation that did not occur a single time last season: Adam has a lead. He took three of our five disputed games last week to tie for the early group lead, but I'm right on his heels. Even our last place person in Aiden is only three games out a week in, though that was with getting a couple hero picks to go his way.

Speaking of hero picks, five of our six pickers put in for one in the opening week, with four of us getting at least one right. In total, we went 5-2 on hero picks last week while going ahead of our historical average on consensus picks, nailing two of three. You can view a full breakdown of how we picked in relation to each other here.

As we roll into our second week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16. Let's get to it!

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Group Finals

I'm breaking from football again for a little bit because the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions is still rolling on!

We've managed to narrow the field down to 16 teams from the original 128, including every World Series champion. It's a little amazing when in other sports that I've done Tournaments of Champions for it's all more modern teams, while here, half the remaining field is from before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Our two highest seeds from group play, as well as our defending Champion of Champions from 2017 are all still in contention.

So today I'm going through the third round, which is the last set of series that will be played within the confines of the groups I set up at the beginning of the tournament. It's also the final round of a best-of-five. Home field advantage goes to the higher seed based on group finish in a 2-2-1 format. This is only a factor for three teams and thus three series, but any home games for American Leagues from 1973 onward are played with a designated hitter; all other games have the pitcher batting ninth.

You can view the bracket so far, as well as go back to see how group play went, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Elite Eight!

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

The long spring and summer of discontent is over, and at long last... NFL football is back. And with it... not quite my longest-running, but arguably my favorite, feature returns once again.

I started Confessions of a Sportscaster in 2011, too late to start doing NFL picks against the spread, but I'd made up my mind that I was going to do it in 2012. In 2014 the contest as you see it now really took shape, as my friend Adam Quinn joined the weekly feature with his football IQ and wit. The contest has gone back and forth between the two of us over the last five years, so if the pattern holds firm I'm going to have an awful 2019 campaign and Adam will win. But that's why we make the picks.

We have much of last year's ragtag group back for another season, though two of our top three pickers are not returning for an encore. Maybe that's for the best, with my wife Kristen not caring about football and still putting up an excellent debut campaign, but more so, we won't get our butts kicked by Adam's wife Jen and her combination of random patterns, having a neighbor pick, and whatever other devil magic she used to win last year's contest by a single game over me. We have a chance!

Coming back this year is my brother-in-law Joe, who was in contention for a good chunk of the year; Adam and Jen's son Aiden, who was also in contention for a bit until one week where he forgot to pick torpedoed his season; Geoffrey Clark, he of Chicago Bulls Confidential and 90's Youth Life fame, is also back once again. And this year, rounding out our group is Kristen and Jen's uncle Jim, making his contest debut.

So as in years past, we will be using ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em game to make our picks, and I will be tracking our picks in relation to each other here.

To open the 2019 campaign, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 16. To my fellow competitors... good luck! Let's get started!