I started Confessions of a Sportscaster in 2011, too late to start doing NFL picks against the spread, but I'd made up my mind that I was going to do it in 2012. In 2014 the contest as you see it now really took shape, as my friend Adam Quinn joined the weekly feature with his football IQ and wit. The contest has gone back and forth between the two of us over the last five years, so if the pattern holds firm I'm going to have an awful 2019 campaign and Adam will win. But that's why we make the picks.
We have much of last year's ragtag group back for another season, though two of our top three pickers are not returning for an encore. Maybe that's for the best, with my wife Kristen not caring about football and still putting up an excellent debut campaign, but more so, we won't get our butts kicked by Adam's wife Jen and her combination of random patterns, having a neighbor pick, and whatever other devil magic she used to win last year's contest by a single game over me. We have a chance!
So as in years past, we will be using ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em game to make our picks, and I will be tracking our picks in relation to each other here.
To open the 2019 campaign, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 16. To my fellow competitors... good luck! Let's get started!
Thursday Night
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Yeah, I'm picking with my heart, not my head. But I stand by it: I'm getting points, it's a huge first impression for Matt LaFleur (and Nagy covered in the opener last year), and you have a healthy and possibly pissed off Aaron Rodgers. But most of all, Jay Cutler's going to be in the house and I really hope Mitch Trubisky gives Jay an encore.
Adam: Bears. Surprise, surprise, Adam went with the Bears. But let's face it: the Bears will have a top 5 D this year and The Biscuit is always improving. A-A-Ron is in the sunset of his career. Easy choice: Bears. Even Peyton the Lesser agrees – Packers Suck!
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Lucas: Vikings. For the Bomba Squad.
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 24, 2019Adam: Falcons. I see this as being a close game. Overall I am not high on the Vikings this year and not in this spot. It's still warm in Minnesota, so that will not impact the Falcons. Also Matty Ice will be on this year. He and Julio will combine for 135 and two touchdowns this week starting on Matty Ice’s treat to fantasy QB1.
Lucas note: I should have stopped you partway through that, because I was in Minneapolis about a month ago and went by US Bank Stadium on my way to MSP on the light rail. And there were two things I noticed: it smelled like playoff chokes, and it has a roof, so the weather doesn't matter anyway. (Part of this was I felt obliged to make the correction, but it was also part me taking a potshot at the Vikings even though my dad is no longer emotionally invested in football. I still had to.)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3.5)
Lucas: Jets. We'll probably see a fresh Le'Veon Bell destroy some fools to open the season then come back down to earth a little bit. That or be super rusty, but Josh Allen screws something up. One of the two.
Adam: Jets. An intriguing game between two bottom of the barrel teams. A battle between two young QB's. This one comes down to the new running backs in town: one is new, and one is a Bell Cow. Can you hear that now? Yes, its more Cow Bell!
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-5.5)
Lucas: Browns. All aboard the Browns bandwagon!
Adam: Browns. All the hype in offseason adding a ton of talent around the already talented Baker, OBJ looks like he has all of the makings for a number one receiver and Baker for Player of the year. While I am on the hype train, I may be taking an early stop. I put the Browns close to or in the playoffs 8-8 or 9-7.
Lucas note: I had the same.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I'm sure Jacksonville won't be the dumpster fire they were last year, but getting the Chiefs to open the season doesn't help matters a ton.
Adam: Chiefs. But only just. KC wins by four points and not because of Mahomes, but in spite of him. I see the Jags D all over him. Year 2 will not be so easy for him, but despite my grim outlook on him, there is not much I hate more than Napoleon...
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Lucas: Rams. Partially because Cam Newton probably won't be at 100 percent, partially because I think the Rams might go on a bit of a revenge tour to start the year.
Adam: Rams. Not sure I have much to say here. Not in love with the Panthers, and Goff, despite his huge extension, will still manage a W.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (+4.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I'm a little leery about this since Miami's a tough place to play, but I think Baltimore is the better team, in September I don't know if their home field advantage is as prevalent, and the Dolphins suck.
Adam: Ravens. So which route to go to explain my pick? Do I go "Miami sucks," or that I always seem to forget about and underrate the Ravens? I’m going with the underrating. So this year I have made a concerted effort to follow the Ravens a little more closely, but all I can say at this point is that I have learned that Lamar Jackson really likes to run.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Taking the points and running; I don't think Philly will be quite on full cylinders yet.
Adam: Redskins. Now that the Eagles are Napoleon-less I can show a little more love... or maybe it's the less than great Skins team. ...yeaaaahhhhhh. But early in the season I am not willing to lay 9.5 points just yet.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Since I started the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest for 2012, Seattle is 30-21-2 against the spread as a home favorite, fifth best mark in the league in that time, and boasts the second best margin of victory and margin by which they cover the spread. Unfortunately I couldn't get numbers for when they're double digit home favorites, but given the trends I could find I like these odds, and I'll ride them against a crappy Bungles squad.
Adam: Bengals. I seriously thought about changing this to Seattle once they picked up Clowney. Have you seen the deal? Seattle bent Houston over, but enough about that. Like the Eagles/Skins game, I just don’t like laying the 9.5 points this early in the season.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I know this line got set well before Andrew Luck retired, so a ton of people are taking advantage of what should be an easy point. And I'm also going to take advantage of the opportunity to take potshots at Jim Irsay and his old brass.
Dearest Elisa,
Please take care of the great Captain Luck.
-NFL Fans
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants. This is more of a "take the points!" kind of pick. Dallas is clearly the better team, but I'm not sure if they're a touchdown better, especially since it's hard to say how good the newly re-signed Zeke will be.
Adam: Cowboys. SMH. 6 years, $90 million- from an owner who quipped “Zeke who?” not a few weeks earlier. At least they will have a good running back for years to come; too bad they are about to drop 35+ on possible a bottom ten QB that everyone thinks is a top ten QB in Dak. Oh well, Zeke still rolls in limited action carrying the team to a 10 point victory.
Lucas note: I think bottom ten is a bit harsh, but I absolutely agree he's not top ten. If you had your choice of every NFL quarterback, how many would you take ahead of Prescott? My rough count is 18.
Adam note: Quick count, 23. I'm not really high on him; never have been.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Lions. Are Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury going to get their first NFL wins this weekend? I'll let Gowron handle this.
Lucas note: Counterpoint: Sam Darnold against the Lions to open the season last year, pretty efficient 16-21 for 198, two scores, and one pick, while Stafford was intercepted four times. Not saying I disagree, but it's not a sure thing, and it's eerie that the Lions are involved again.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Straight up. Also, I'm not entirely sure why this game got moved to the late afternoon slot unless it's to try not to screw over the Niners... which begs the question of why Rams-Panthers is at noon. I'll chalk it up to the NFL doesn't know what it's doing even though they maybe do.
Adam: 49ers. The books put this game as a toss-up. I am a little higher on 49ers, that’s about it.
Sunday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I'm just taking the points here because I got screwed on the last title celebration and I feel like the Steelers could give New England a game again.
Adam: Patriots. The Goat spanks a team who thought their best moves were to let their two best players leave! OK, maybe that's a little harsh, but still, the Goat!!!!
Monday Night
Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Lucas: Saints. Okay, can Saints fans get their butthurt over an obvious bad call out of the way finally and move on to this season? Cool, thanks.
Adam: Saints. Before the torn ACL, I think I would have taken the Texans, but with the loss of Miller and the departure of Clowney, I don’t see how the Texans keep up on the road against Brees, Thomas and Kamara.
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Don't bet against... *checks notes* ... Joe Flacco at night? All right, whatever.
Lucas note: I mean, this game is in Oakland, so dumpster fires are definitely on the table.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 136-120
Adam: 109-147
Joe: 128-128
Geoffrey: 115-141
Aiden: 112-144
Jim: 0-0
Kristen: 133-123
Jen: 137-119
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