We saw a little bit of tier evolution in Week 6, as well as a changing of the guard. The big issue, and something that happened last year as well, was that Aiden missed the deadline for a bunch of picks and thus "officially" went 0-14 last week, but for the purposes of record keeping, it doesn't go down as the worst week ever.
Meanwhile, up in that upper tier, I swiped six of eight disputed games from Adam to take over the group lead. It's a tenuous one game advantage, and it may not last, but I will enjoy it while I can. Adam apparently turned into Matt Nagy, claiming he got too cute last week and saw it blow up in his face. You can view the full group standings here, and how the entire group has picked in relation to each other here.
This week, the disparities fall mostly by the wayside and groupthink prevails as Adam and I only disagree on three games out of 14. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+3.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Kansas City has looked quite mortal the last few weeks, and on short rest, on the road, against a division rival, I'll take the points.
Adam: Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off two tough home losses in which Mahomes has averaged about 300 yards and two touchdowns. Those are winning numbers in my book. The only equalizer is being in Denver, but I think the high-powered offense of the Chiefs prevails.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Lucas: Rams. I'll buck my normal wisdom here and take the West Coast team playing at noon; the Falcons suck and the Rams just pushed all their chips to the middle by going and getting Jalen Ramsey. I think for now, it'll work.
— Jalen Ramsey (@jalenramsey) October 15, 2019Adam: Rams. This comes down to two things: the Rams are capable of putting up points (aside from only putting up seven against the 49ers, they have averaged about 28-30 points), and with a cupcake of a defense that Atlanta is, that's another easy 30. And second, Atlanta is just not the team that we think they should be. Officially off any hype train.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
Lucas: Bills. Miami just beat the spread for the first time this season this past week, and that was against a bad Washington team. 'Nuff said.
Adam: Dolphins. Wow, wow, wow. I wonder what Vegas would have put as odd of the Bills being double digit favorites at any time this year. While the Fins are bad... and I mean bad, this Bills team seems to have an inability to score and constantly shoots themselves in the foot.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. The Jags have looked a little more mortal of late, but if I only have to lay just over a field goal against a bad Bengals team... I'll take it.
Adam: Jaguars. AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA... BING... there’s the hate B@N&R. Jags by 14.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Lucas: Lions. Look, I'll freely admit: the Lions got screwed quite a bit on Monday night up at Lambeau, but again, don't chalk up to malice that which can easily be explained by incompetence. As long as refball doesn't rear its ugly head again on Sunday, I think this is a Lions revenge game.
Adam: Lions. I’m just going to leave it here: the Lions got screwed. Revenge win... sorry, not sorry it had to come against Minnesota.
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Lucas: Raiders. This line seems a little high. Given that Aaron Rodgers kind of MacGuyver'd his way to a win on Monday without his best receiver and one of his other top guys leaving early in the second half, combined with the fact that Oakland is better than I and others gave them credit for, I say Green Bay still wins but Oakland back door covers.
Lucas note: Let me put my meatball hat on for a moment... Seattle in 2012. The Jerry Rice fumble in the playoffs in '99/'00 that led to the challenge system being implemented. ...Sorry, I had to break out my persecution complex for a moment. Let's continue.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Colts. With Houston flying high after a nice win over Kansas City, beware the letdown game. I don't know that I'd qualify this as a possible trap game, but screw it.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-2.5)
Lucas: Giants. This one, I'll go back to the normal trend of don't pick the West Coast team (yeah, I know Arizona's not on the coast, shut up) at noon playing out east, if for no other reason than I don't totally trust the Cardinals. Though this line is roughly consistent with a pick 'em, so I'll take the conventional wisdom.
Adam: Giants. I am making this pick on Wednesday with all signs pointing to Barkley being back in the mix. With that being true, this is an easy W for the G-Men at home. But I am reserving the right to change to Arizona if Barkley is a scratch as I like this line for AZ without him.
Lucas note: Yeah... normally I don't allow that, but I'll make an exception in the interest of fair play. As of posting time, Saquon was a full participant in Wednesday practice, but if there's a setback I'll allow the change and note it here.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins (+9.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Then I'll immediately ignore my usual wisdom again, if for no other reason than the Redskins are a dumpster fire.
Adam: 49ers. I always hate when the game lines get this high, but the Skins have sputters with any signs of life and the 49ers seem like they are on an absolute tear. I am basing this on the fact that they just almost lost to the Fins last week; 49ers roll.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Getting a couple points against *checks notes* Ryan Tannehill? Sign me up!
Adam: Chargers. New quarterback under center for the Titans; Adios to Mariota, so long and don’t let the door hit you on the way out. On the flip side, the Chargers have not shown much sign of life and have way underperformed expectations, but still I like this spot and even better getting two and a half. Score!
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. This is risky; Alvin Kamara's got an ankle injury, there's the whole Saints-outdoors-in-cold-weather thing... but I don't know that I trust the Bears by a touchdown against a resourceful Saints squad. Taking the points.
Adam: Saints. Long on IR, Hicks on IR eligible to return, offense in shambles... how are the Bears giving points in this game? OK, I get it, the defense is still solid, maybe the changes to the O-line will spark the offense, and Teddy Bridgewater is under center, but I don’t like the Bears giving points in this spot. This will be a last minute field goal for the win by whichever team has it...
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I think the Ravens were a bit of a paper tiger; they beat up on some weak teams earlier in the year, then struggled a bit with a bad Bengals team this past week. Going into one of the NFL's tougher venues, I like the line.
Adam: Seahawks. This game has shootout written all over it. The Ravens' defense has not played up to par and Wilson is arguably having the best start of his career. I mean, he tries to throw the ball out of bounds and ends up connecting on a spectacular back of the endzone toe tapper highlight reel touchdown.
Sunday Night
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Lucas: Eagles.
Monday Night
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+9.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Sam Darnold won last week as an 8.5 point underdog. But these... are not the Cowboys.
Adam: Patriots. I am a little surprised; I sat and thought about this game way more than I expected. The Jets look like they have the kinks worked out and with Darnold back in this could rise to an acceptable early season MNF game. But the Pats have been humming, so I am not betting against that.
Records So Far
Lucas: 52-40 (9-5 last week)
Adam: 51-41 (5-9 last week)
Joe: 41-51 (4-10 last week)
Geoffrey: 42-50 (7-7 last week)
Aiden: 40-52 (5-9* retroactive last week)
Jim: 42-50 (6-8 last week)
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