The early slate was not kind to much of the group, but we all rebounded fairly well in the late afternoon slate and beyond. Adam and I, for our part, split our eight disputed games as he retains his three game column and group lead. We're starting to separate ourselves from the pack a little bit, though Week 4 saw a surge from Aiden to create a little bunch at the bottom of the group. You can view the full group standings here, and a comparison to how we've all picked compared to each other here.
We have another bye this week, so of the 15 tilts on the slate, Adam and I disagree on a record 12 of them. Needless to say... some major changes in the standings could be forthcoming. Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. The Rams were exposed just a few days ago, and I'd argue that Seattle is better than Tampa. Add in that it's a primetime game at home, and I'll lay the small number of points.
Adam: Rams. A division game where both teams will want to tear the other's eyes out. It should be fun. I am basically viewing this game as a pick’em game, so because of the Rams' defense and superior running back I am leaning Rams.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans (-4.5)
Lucas: Texans. The Falcons are bad. Hopefully Deshaun doesn't see as much Cover 4 this week.
Adam: Falcons. I hemmed and hawed over this pick for a few minutes. I had both teams lined up in my pick bar a couple of times before finally settling on the Falcons. I know what everyone is saying: "The Falcons suck." And yes, they have smoked a chode a few times this year already. But I am still not ready to let go of the Ryan/Jones connection along with a decent running back... yes, they are 1-3, but I think they are a strong case for a surge.Deshaun Watson explains Carolina's defense in 66 seconds. pic.twitter.com/8Fn4OAKHk3— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) September 29, 2019
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. Only because I'm not sure if Josh Allen is going to play due to being in concussion protocol. Matt Barkley is... kind of a downgrade, and while Buffalo's defense is good, not having the greatest quarterback can pose a problem.
Adam: Bills. This is the question: Will this a Benny Hill game? What I mean is will Tennessee’s only offensive weapon in Derrick Henry be able to run around like a funny man on the Bills solid run D? Also, will the Bills be able to score...?
Chicago Bears vs Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Bears. On a multi-faceted front: the Bears destroyed Minnesota with a ton of starters out (including Trubisky, which... may actually make the team better), and the Raiders suck. Also, Vontaze Burfict is a thug who deserved every game of his suspension and, I'd argue, should be banned from the league (but I'm not complaining about this being for a full season). And every Raiders fan with a persecution complex complaining about why he got a season for his hit while other hits were less scrutinized needs to drop said persecution complex, watch the below video, and stop defending a thug.
Lucas note: I was going to mention something about this being an annual mention, but I've only reamed Burfict four times in the history of Pigskin Pick 'Em. I thought for sure it would have been more, though I guess you can count the couple times in season previews for six total. Also... little did I know in 2013 that Burfict would be a thug.Time to start talking about a long-term ban for Vontaze Burfict (sound on). pic.twitter.com/oMYegAzYyc— Robert Klemko (@RobertKlemko) September 29, 2019
Adam: Raiders. First London game this year with the Raiders as the home team here but not really at “home” ...or are they? Anyway, with the Biscuit out and the Raiders playing better than anticipated once AB departed I put will take the points. But the game will not really be as close as the final score shows... it will be a late cover.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. HOW ARE THE CARDINALS GETTING THIS MANY POINTS AGAINST THE BUNGLES?! GIMME GIMME GIMME!
Adam: Cardinals. Boomer... Kyler Murray for his first win... Sooner.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+4.5)
Lucas: Giants. Daniel Jones as a home underdog against Kirk Freaking Cousins? With opinion turning on him? Where do I sign?
Adam: Vikings. I guess it really depends on who is quarterback for the Vikes. If it is Cousins, my pick stands, but I reserve the right to change if Adam Thielen’s wife makes the start.
New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins (+15.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I mean... Brett Favre's first career touchdown was thrown to an opponent. Dwayne Haskins could have a similar enough career! Not that it'll really get on track against an elite Patriots defense, but still...
Adam: Redskins. Ummmmmm... dang, I hate this line. The Fins screwed me last week on a long line and other than a few games, the lines over 10 don’t pan out. So I’ll take the points against a Pats team that could only muster 16 points against the Bills and quite frankly should have probably lost to them.
Lucas note: Won't dispute that the Pats didn't look great in Buffalo, but going from facing the fourth-best defense to the seventh-worst by DVOA should help this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. Tough call. I don't think Tampa is going to drop 55 again, but this still assumes that the Saints can win despite them not managing a single offensive touchdown last week. That won't happen again this week, which I think gives me enough leeway.
Adam: Buccaneers. I just changed this last minute. I was thinking about the massive amounts of points that they put up last week; I cannot ignore that.
New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Lucas: Jets. Yeah, we're probably not seeing Sam Darnold yet, and the Jets are hot garbage, but two touchdowns is a lot to lay. I'll take the points here.
Adam: Eagles. Old Sammy Boy, keep that spleen in one piece. The Eagles take their win over Green Bay and keep on flyin’.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Well played on the line here. I need to take a step back with Baltimore now that they've gotten lit up in back to back weeks. Getting lit up by Patrick Mahomes is one thing; getting lit up by Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and company though is another story. I'd love to have another point of leeway, but I'll take what I'm given.
Adam: Ravens. I’ll take a tough loss by the Ravens at the hands of the Browns over the stomping the Steelers put on the Bengals. Lamar Jackson will go nuts this week a la his week 1 numbers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. In the battle of rookie quarterbacks I'm jumping on the bandwagons of, the choice is obvious. Don't bet against Gardner Minshew.
Adam: Jaguars. Foles is out... Mic drop.
Lucas note: Replace me with (gulp) Yamcha, Adam with Tien, and Nick Foles with Vegeta, and this pretty much captures the situation.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Since I'm not sure exactly how good Melvin Gordon is going to be in his first actual game back, I'm going to take the points here and hope.
Adam: Chargers. Gordon's back; line should be 10.5.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Look, it's a Packers-Cowboys game in Dallas. We all know how this is going to go.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Colts. KC struggled a bit in Detroit last week. I'm sure Mahomes won't have another zero-touchdown game again, but double digits is a lot to ask against an Indy team that's exceeding expectations.
Adam: Chiefs. Despite an almost loss to the Lions last week (the Lions are playing out of their gourds BTW,) the Colts are big fakers. Mahomes reverts to his Kermit ways and rib, rib, ribbits past the Colts.
Monday Night
Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Lucas: Browns. Really, I'm just taking the field goal I'm getting and running.
Adam: 49ers. Browns, I was with you to start the season, then I left you quickly when you fell flat. I know you had a big win over the Ravens last week, but I am still not ready to jump back on the wagon. I need another convincing win or two, I just don’t see it here. Now go cut your lawn.
Lucas note: Does the Factory of Sadness have a lawn?
Records So Far
Lucas: 35-28 (9-6 last week)
Adam: 38-25 (9-6 last week)
Joe: 31-32 (7-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 27-36 (7-8 last week)
Aiden: 28-35 (11-4 last week)
Jim: 28-35 (7-8 last week)
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