Game Notes: Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/29/17)

Final Score
Benedictine 75, NCC 61

Game Summary
This one looked like it was going to be ugly early as the Eagles (3-1) jumped out to a 6-0 lead and led by ten just four minutes into the game. But the Cardinals (0-4) would rally back, closing the quarter on a 12-4 run to make it 19-17. North Central would take the lead right away on a Siarra O'Neill three, but the Eagles got the lead right back and imposed their will, opening up a nine point advantage, but a 7-0 Cardinal run closed the gap before the Eagles took a 38-34 lead into the break. The Cardinals came out of the intermission strong and tied the game at 42, but the Eagles went on an 11-2 run to regain control of the contest and held a 59-50 lead after three. Mayson Whipple hit a three to open the fourth, but that was as close as the Cardinals would get, with the Eagles leading by as many as 16 in the final frame to snap North Central's five game winning streak over them.

Key Stats

• Madisyn Fischer (BEN): 6-13 FG (4-7 3PT); 16 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. The Eagles shot pretty well for the game, but I think Fischer had the best night of all of them. She was able to get a couple clean looks at the basket while doing a great job finding open teammates. She effectively ended the game in the fourth quarter last night when up seven, she launched a corner three and somehow banked it in. I think even she was in disbelief about it.
• Mayson Whipple (NCC): 7-15 FG (1-5 3PT); 15 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 2 ast. Mayson was a big reason why the Cardinals overcame their slow start. Early in the game, the Eagles couldn't guard her and she was able to get to the rim almost at will. For some reason I feel like North Central went away from that a little bit, but the Eagles also adjusted and better defended the dribble-drive. Still, Mayson has looked pretty good to start the year.
• Andrea Dickerson (NCC): 4-7 FG (3-6 3PT); 11 pts, 6 reb (1 off), 2 blks, 1 stl. Andrea started her collegiate career at Murray State, and I think was at NCC last year but was hurt all year. Getting some action now, she's looked good. She's an excellent shooter, one who I thought did a little more damage than just a trio of triples, but also played some pretty good defense. The best play I saw from her last night was midway through the third quarter with NCC down nine. After a turnover, she got back and played some solid help defense on Venita Parsons on the right wing, then somehow got over to the left wing where Parsons had passed to an open Fischer and blocked her attempted three.

North Central "System" Watch

• Benedictine Turnovers: 17. This number, on one hand, isn't good enough. I know North Central isn't going full "System" anymore, but when you put full court pressure on a fair amount of the time, you should get more than 17 takeaways. Six of them came on steals by six different Cardinals.
• NCC 3PT: 9-33 (27.3%). The Cardinals caught a little fire in the second quarter but went ice cold (0-6) in the final nine-plus minutes. This has always been a team that is live and die by the three, and with attempts down this year, this percentage needs to go up a little bit.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Hannah Vitkus drew one in the first half, which prompted me to bring this feature back. Anita Sterling being gone means that we aren't going to see many of these anymore, but it's something I still intend to keep track of.
• NCC FT: 2-7 (28.6%). Ye gods. There weren't a ton of fouls in this game, so North Central's trips to the line were limited, but even when they got there they didn't take advantage. Not helping the team line is Natali Dimitrova, who went 1-3 at the line last night to take her season average to 31.3 percent. For the season, the Cardinals are now at an even 50 percent from the line. In fairness, Benedictine wasn't great at the line either (7-13), but this continues to be an alarming trend four games in.

Final Thoughts

I told my assistant SID this late in the game, but I'm getting flashbacks to the 2011-12 campaign. That was the last pre-System year, and that team wasn't very good. The difference is that I like the pieces on this year's team, but I definitely think they're still adjusting to a more traditional style of play. Relearning how to play basketball on the fly is going to lead to some growing pains. There was definite effort all game, as I don't think they really had a lapse like they had in the first three games, but this is a pretty good Eagle team.

Last night's game was the quickest NCC women's game I've worked in a long time. For the last few years I've gotten used to these games taking two hours to complete. This one was done in just over an hour and a half. I just wish we could have gotten a better result on the three year anniversary of this fun game.

#THREEEEEEEEE years ago this afternoon, UW-Eau Claire’s women’s basketball team blew a 19 point lead to @NCCWBB. It’s the greatest comeback I’ve ever seen. Hoping on this anniversary we pull out a win against Benedictine! #WeAreNC pic.twitter.com/MxDXQE7cby

— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) November 29, 2017

NCC have a couple days to go over the film and get ready for CCIW play. I mentioned in my preview that I could have seen the Cardinals going into the North Park game at 4-0. Instead, it's the exact opposite and the Vikings haven't been too bad to start the year. Hopefully the kinks continue to get worked out and they're ready for The Gauntlet.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

The coalition returns to action again this week, and I get the feeling everyone is eager to get back to it, after the week we all had.

Maybe having 11 weeks of data to work with really helped us all. Even though I swept the three picks Adam and I disputed, he and the rest of the group all finished with a winning record. It's created a little log jam in the standings.

Now that said, after giving Adam grief a couple times, I screwed up and made a wrong pick on ESPN, taking the Jaguars on there after taking the Cardinals on here. Since precedent is that COAS picks get priority, I have one more win than ESPN says I do. You can see those adjusted and correct standings, as well as a breakdown of our picks in relation to each other, here.

So with the gap having narrowed, these last 80 games are critical to see who will win. This week, Adam and I disagree on a whopping nine games out of 16. Watch out; we may have a change in the leaderboard this week!

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Automatic Bid Games

I started this feature last year, because in Week 14 it's almost all conference championship games, and as such NCSS really won't make any changes. There are a few games where changes will be made, with that said, and you can check my spreadsheet for those updates. A quick survey of my schedule shows that there are all of two games this week that fit that criteria, though I will throw the Army-Navy game in as a feature for this week even though it's a week and a half out. It does count for those metrics.

Speaking of that Army-Navy game, that game won't have any bearing on the playoffs; neither team is in contention for an at-large bid (Navy has five losses, and Army has three without the requisite metrics to overcome them). As such, it thus comes down to a total of twelve games to fill the ten automatic bids. Nine of those are conference title games; I'll go into those games below. The other three are Sun Belt contests, and as the only conference without a championship game, the tiebreakers are once again messy.

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Mock Bracket

The playoffs are well underway in every division of college football except the FCS. And now that North Central got bounced badly, I can turn my full attention to basketball and the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

The regular season is over for all but one conference, plus some assorted other games including the Army-Navy game that's not going to have any playoff impact. So with the conference title games taking place this coming weekend, I need to do one final mock bracket.

This is for the playoff system created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in the pictured book where there's a 16 team field: 10 automatic bids to every conference champion, plus six at larges to fill the field. They are seeded 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seed for the first three rounds before the title game is held in college football's mecca: Pasadena.

So how do we fill the field, and how is it seeded? Ideally, this would be done by committee, but since we don't have a committee for this, I take that responsibility on, though I don't just do it based on the eye test. I use a number of metrics to help me make the right decision. I glance at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to get a measurement of whether teams are trying to challenge themselves out of their conference schedule (and it also gives me an excuse to call Nick Saban a coward). More importantly, I care about results. That's where First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP) come in. Those factor in who you beat, and also a little bit of who they beat as well as the Adjusted points factoring in losses. This helps differentiate between 10-2 teams or 11-1 teams. Finally, to help factor in margin of victory and create a lack of bias, I also look at computer rankings devised by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman as compiled by a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors, along with factors like head to head victories and wins over other playoff teams combine organically to build the bracket.

And so, with that explanation out of the way, let's look at our final mock bracket for this season.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 13

Rivalry Week is concluded, and now for all intents and purposes, the regular season is done, with one exception.

The Sun Belt is still playing out its string, and I'll touch on their automatic bid scenarios tomorrow. Today, though, we need to go through the results from this past week, because a lot of major things happened that need our attention.

Several upsets happened, which will mean some upheaval in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, but I'll get to that later today. For now, like last week, I'm going to update everyone's Playoff Points and update the conference rankings below.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 12

I'm running these a little early because of the holiday. And with plans both later tonight and for Thanksgiving, I wanted to keep up the tradition and get these up a little early. Especially given how early we're playing games tomorrow, I felt that this was important.

Adam I'm sure wants to get right back into this, after he took five of seven disputed games last week to not only extend his lead over me, but to overtake first place in the coalition. And yet he's still complaining about the Browns costing him an extra one (the lesson, as always: don't bet on Cleveland.) You can also see correct standings with a breakdown of our picks in relation to each othere here.

With the byes complete, we have 96 games left over the next six weeks. On this holiday weekend, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 16.

From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, Happy Thanksgiving!

Game Notes: Benedictine University @ North Central College (11/21/17)

Final Score
NCC 82, Benedictine 79

Game Summary
This one didn't look great early as the Eagles (0-3) were red hot coming out of the gate, overcoming a couple early one possession deficits with long range precision, jumping out to a 12-4 lead. The Cardinals (1-1) called a couple timeouts to stop the bleeding, but the threes just kept falling for the Eagles, who led 38-23 with 3:11 to play in the half. Then the Cardinals decided they'd had enough and closed the half on a 15-2 run to go into the break only down two. They carried that momentum into the second half, tying the game immediately and then turning the game into a battle. The lead would change hands seven times over the next few minutes before the Cardinals seemed to take command, going up ten with 6:43 to play, and after back to back threes with under five minutes to play led 74-60. The Eagles had a run in them though and chipped away at the lead with threes and free throws. Up two with 20 seconds left, the Cardinals made a critical turnover, and the Eagles tied the game at the line with 16.7 seconds to go. The Cardinals played for the last shot, and Mike Pollack buried a contested three with 1.1 seconds to go to give the Cardinals the win in the Battle of Chicago/Maple Avenue.

Key Stats

• Mike Pollack (NCC): 8-11 FG (6-9 3PT), 3-4 FT; 25 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. I completely glossed over Pollack in the season preview, but I'm okay with being proven unaware of how good he truly was. Pollack hit three triples in the first half, including two during that key 15-2 run, but he saved his best for the second half. He hit the aforementioned back to back threes that gave the Cardinals their 14 point advantage, then on the final play caught an Alex Sorenson pass on the left wing, took two dribbles to his right, and launched a contested three that I wasn't crazy about at first, but went nuts when he hit it.
• Erwin Henry (NCC): 6-11 FG (2-3 3PT), 6-7 FT; 20 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 8 ast. On a night where Alex Sorenson (2 pts, 2 reb in 13 minutes) was limited by foul trouble, the Cardinals needed another one of their seniors to step up, and Erwin absolutely did. He attacked the basket in the second half to help build that 14 point lead for the Cardinals, and hit some key free throws late to maintain the lead. The fact that he quietly had eight assists as well was even better.
• Brayden Olson (BEN): 10-15 FG (5-9 3PT), 7-9 FT; 32 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 4 ast, 2 stl. Olson went bonkers from beyond the arc in the first half, hitting all five of his threes to help open up that huge Benedictine lead. He turned his focus inside in the second half, attacking the basket and hitting some key free throws to help Benedictine erase that 14 point Cardinal lead. On a team that has seen most of its key personnel from the team that made the national title game two seasons ago, Olson is the key offensive weapon, and really showed it last night.

Final Thoughts

It's not a Battle of Chicago/Maple Avenue without the game being dramatic, and this one certainly lived up to the billing of the last two matchups (NCC won last year on a huge defensive stand on the final possession, and two years ago Benedictine got the end of game heroics. But this was a big win for the Cardinals coming off a double overtime loss over the weekend, and one that lifted my spirits after whatever you want to call the ending of the women's game that preceded it. And somehow, I'm able to talk today after worrying I'd destroyed my vocal cords calling Pollack's game winner.

The Cardinals head to Hawaii for a tournament this weekend, playing Whitworth and Lewis and Clark on Friday and Saturday, respectively. They then get a week off to prepare for the CCIW opener at North Park on December 2nd.

Game Notes: Colorado College @ North Central College (11/21/17)

Final Score
Colorado 60, NCC 56

Game Summary
This game started well enough as the Cardinals (0-3) got a three on their opening possession, but the Tigers (1-2) would score the game's next seven points and pretty much controlled the contest from there. While the Cardinals only trailed by two points after one quarter, the bottom started to fall out as the Tigers would lead by as many as ten before settling into a 33-27 halftime lead. The third quarter was awful for the Cardinals, as they only managed five points for the frame and the Tigers took their biggest lead of the night at 51-32 with ten minutes to play. Fortunately, the Cardinals woke up, going on a 13-2 run in the first four minutes of the frame to cut the lead to eight. They got it down to six with four and a half minutes to play, but then the Cardinals were called for an iffy foul and Michelle Roof received a horrible technical foul for leaving the coach's box with no formal warning. Despite the setback, the Cardinals would get the lead down to four with under a minute to play, but didn't have enough left in the tank to grab their first win of the season.

Key Stats

• McKenzee Gertz (CC): 4-10 FG (4-7 3PT), 5-8 FT; 17 pts, 14 reb (1 off), 2 stl. Gertz is just a freshman, but played a phenomenal game in this one, hitting some early threes to put the Tigers in control. While she missed a couple free throws late that could have iced the game (hold that thought), she also dominated on the glass with a team high in rebounds.
• Haydn Braun (NCC): 6-15 FG (1-5 3PT), 2-4 FT; 15 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. Through two actual games I've seen Haydn play in, she's been fairly impressive so far. She can shoot a little bit (though last night was an off night), but she can also get to the rim. She's quick and seems to be the heir apparent to Mayson Whipple. In the meantime, these two should play off of each other a little bit with the drive/kick opportunities.
• Diamond Calicott (NCC): 3-6 FG, 2-6 FT; 8 pts, 15 reb (9 off), 1 stl. I figured Gertz's 14 boards were a game-high; turns out Calicott's dominance on the offensive glass propelled her to one more. Obviously, she needs to be better at the line (hold that thought as well), but this was a decent game for a player who I wasn't sure would be playing this season.

North Central "System" Watch

• Colorado Turnovers: 23. This was, all told, a pretty sloppy game. Of the 23 turnovers, only eight came off steals, paced by two from Frankie Pettit. The rest were an assortment of mostly travels, though the Cardinals did get a ten second backcourt takeaway, as well as a five second call on a player not advancing towards the basket.
• NCC 3PT: 7-31 (22.6%). After a good outing in the first game (mainly propelled by a hot second half), the team has come back down to earth a bit. They aren't shooting as many threes as they have in years past; some of it is a change of style, some of it is also due to what I fear may be some tentativeness on the part of the Cardinals. They didn't have a ton of "open" looks, and credit Colorado's defense for that, but they also seem to be passing up some looks that they'd probably take in the last five seasons.
• NCC FT: 7-20 (35%). This is getting moved into the "System" Watch feature. It needs to become its own thing outside of the key stats, because this is unacceptable. In a game you lose by four, with 13 missed free throws... you do the math. For the season, the Cardinals are at 52 percent.

Final Thoughts

Hang on, I'm not done complaining about stuff from this game. I want to start with the technical foul. Coach Roof received it for being out of the coach's box. According to the rulebook, this is a violation that is worthy of a tech, but the rulebook also states that a warning is to be issued. I talked to her after the game, and she said she was warned earlier in the game, but the table was never made aware, something that I thought was supposed to happen. I chalk this up to a lack of communication, something that seemed pretty rampant in this game. It also seemed in real time with the tech that the head official talked the official who came to the table to report the tech into making it a tech. I'm just going to leave this link here and let you put two and two together.

Back to actual in-game stuff that isn't official-related, watch the final sequence by North Central. I feel like one disadvantage of The System not often brought up is that sometimes you're not fully prepared for critical end of game situations. Such was the case on the final possession of the game where North Central needed a basket and failed to get a shot off entirely. This was with multiple veterans on the floor. If you get off a bad shot and miss, I wouldn't be crazy about it, but you at least got something off. Not getting off a shot is about as inexcusable as the baker's dozen missed free throws.

This was a game the Cardinals should have won. The Tigers aren't very good (they were 2-23 last year) and given the score with some of the context, even hitting 60 percent of your free throws turns a four point loss into a one point win. This was a team that I thought could start 4-0. Even factoring in an understandable loss to Louisiana, they should have beaten both Lake Forest and Colorado. Instead, they're 0-3 and have a week to prepare for the rivalry game with Benedictine. Hopefully, the Cardinals can get some of the kinks worked out after the holiday and finally get into the win column.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 13

With Nick Saban Is A Coward Week behind us, we can get to the week everybody loves in the regular season: Rivalry Week!

For the most part, these rivalry games are played in conference, but there are a number of games that are played between interconference rivals, and these games need to be accounted for. That, combined with the four independent schools, and the need for this post for one final week this season becomes clear.

You can find a primer on how the NCSS metric works in my season introductory post. Here's the final set of rankings by conference for the 2017 season.

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Mock Bracket

Over in Division III of the NCAA, Saturday was the first round of the playoffs, North Central is still alive as one of the top 16 teams in the country. It's a shame that in reality, a 16 team bracket at the FBS level is nothing more than a pipe dream because of corruption and greed. That's where I'm glad Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan wrote the book pictured here.

In this 2010 (and updated in 2011) classic they tear the old Bowl Championship Series apart piece by piece and introduce their replacement plan, which I've adopted as my pick I'd advocate for: a 16 team field where every conference gets its champion in automatically. The rest of the field is filled with deserving at large candidates, and home field advantage reigns for the first three rounds.

The at large selections and seeding processes are suggested to be done by a committee. Since said committee doesn't exist, I try my best to be the committee and build out this scenario to the best of my ability. To do so, I use a number of metrics. I start with a casual look at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which gives a score based on what that schedule looks like. More points are awarded for road games and/or games against Power Five schools, while teams get penalized for playing down a level, though they don't get soapboxed unless you're one of the five schools full of cowards this past week. More importantly, I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, aPP, respectively) as a way of looking beyond records to how good the teams you beat were. Finally, to help reduce bias, and also to factor margin of victory in, I use three sets of computer rankings: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), those compiled by a UCLA staffer using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and those from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS).

These factors all somewhat organically combine to build the field. So without further ado, here is my penultimate 2017 mock bracket.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 12

Nick Saban Is A Coward Week is in the books, and with that, it's time to survey the landscape.

There was nowhere near as much chaos this week as there was last week, which will be a good thing when I go to the lab later today to build out another mock bracket. For reference, here's last week's.

We won't worry too much about that yet, though. First, I need to update all of the numbers for everyone, and then below you will find the rankings for each conference. I will later go through the top teams in every category. If you need a refresher on how each of the three types of Playoff Points works, you can view a description of them back in my season introductory post.

Game Notes: Louisiana College vs North Central College (11/17/17)

Final Score
Louisiana 77, NCC 71

Game Summary
Playing in Wheaton College's Beth Baker Classic to open the season, the Cardinals (0-1) started out pretty well, playing good defense and getting some early baskets, leading by as many as six in the opening frame. But the Wildcats (2-0) fought back and managed to narrow the gap to a single point after one quarter. The bottom fell out in the second quarter, as the Wildcats got a three from RyDeja McQuarn to take the lead a minute in, and while the Cardinals would tie it right back up, the Wildcats took command with a 12-4 run over the next four minutes and opened up a 42-26 halftime lead. Whatever coach Michelle Roof said in the locker room worked, as the Cardinals came back with a barrage of threes, using a 16-8 run to help narrow the gap to as close as 50-45 before the Wildcats recovered. They led 60-52 after three and would push the lead to 11 in the fourth, but the Cardinals had one more rally in them, using a 9-1 run over the next two minutes to cut the gap to 73-70. But North Central committed a pair of turnovers in the final minute and Louisiana was able to escape with the win.

Key Stats

• Brooke Jones (LC): 7-10 FG (0-1 3PT), 3-4 FT; 17 pts, 16 reb (6 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. In a game where North Central got outrebounded 52-42, you look for one player who jumps out at you, and Jones was it. She was able to hit not only layups, but some midrange jumpers as well which helped the Wildcats take command in this one.
• NCC: 15-25 FT (60%). I missed this both during the game itself and in my first look at the box score, but ye gods. There's one player in particular (I'll get to her) who needs to work on this, but you can't shoot 60 percent from the line with more opportunities than your opponent and expect to win.
• Natali Dimitrova (NCC): 5-10 FG (4-8 3PT), 2-7 FT; 16 pts, 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl. I thought all in all, Natali played really well. She was the hot shooter for the Cardinals yesterday and helped them both stake the early lead and make the late comeback. I would like to see a little more rebounding, obviously, and definitely an improvement at the line.

North Central "System" Watch

I use the term in quotations, because what North Central ran yesterday was not "The System" as we've become used to. The offense was still fairly similar, and the Cardinals still pressed a little bit, but not as much, and didn't do the hockey-style line changes yesterday. It meant a more normal minutes distribution and less fatigue, though the tempo of the game was still fairly fast. Anyway, I'm still going to look at the two major stats I've been looking at, while taking charges out of it because Anita Sterling is gone.

• Louisiana College Turnovers: 20. This isn't a bad total, given the change of pace. I wouldn't say the Wildcats played sloppy, especially since North Central committed 19 turnovers on their side. The Cardinals picked up 11 steals in this one, paced by three apiece from Haydn Braun and Lyndsay Brennan.
• NCC 3PT: 12-33 (36.4%). I feel like the Cardinals passed up some opportunities, especially early on. But in the first half, by and large the threes weren't falling, as they shot 4-17. They heated up in the second half because of course they did, but unfortunately it wasn't enough. On the whole though, I'll take that clip any day.

Final Thoughts

Yesterday was the first North Central women's game I attended as a fan since 2012. It's been a long time. But they were local and I wanted to go support them, and I also wanted to give Matthew an introduction to North Central basketball. I hadn't been to King Arena since 2010, and it's still as nice a facility (maybe even a little nicer) as it was when I was last there.

Ultimately, that second quarter is what killed the Cardinals. They gave up too many easy layups (48 points in the paint) and too many second chance points (18). I am happy with how they didn't just lay down and came out strong after halftime. They shot with confidence against a team that, one could argue, is more talented than them. Coach Roof even said that this team has been pretty good every year, though they had a down year last year before a late run. It ruins the 4-0 start I'd pegged the Cardinals for, but I think they have some good things they can take from this one. Their two freshmen who figure to play the most key of roles (Braun and Bekah Foley) both shot poorly in this one (combined 2-14, 0-6 from deep), and that won't happen every game.

North Central is back in action this afternoon against a not very good Lake Forest College team. Wheaton dispatched them 74-57 yesterday after I left, and this should be a good opportunity for North Central to get in the win column. After this they open their home schedule on Tuesday against Colorado College.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 11

The coalition is moving on to Week 11, but I feel like it was a subpar week overall.

Geoffrey Clark remains in the lead that he has held for a good chunk of the season, and currently has sole possession of first place. I gained the tiniest bit of ground on Adam after taking three of five disputed games last week. Adam did goof again last week, accidentally picking Dallas on ESPN when he picked Atlanta for the blog. He gets credit for it, which means ESPN is now short three wins for him. You can view an accurate count, as well as a breakdown of all our picks in relation to each other, here.

This week, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of the 14 being played, a high for recently.

2017-18 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

The women's preview is up and running, but with the season starting today, I need to get the men's preview up and running as well.

I'm about to begin year four of full time announcing for the North Central men's team, and it's given me the privilege of working for a team that has been good over the last few years, and I'm honored to continue to work for them.

I mentioned this in the women's preview, but I want to bring it up again. If you're on the full version of the website, you'll notice in the sidebar on the right that I have a standings feature for both the men's and women's teams of the CCIW, something I will try to update daily if I can. It'll be harder during non-conference play, but a lot more doable when we are in conference play since everyone will be going at it all at once.

Let's take a look at what the men have in store for us this winter.

2017-18 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

The Division III football playoffs near this weekend, but another season is about to get underway. Today marks the official start of basketball season for the division, and that means I need to prepare my vocal cords for a seventh year of their gradual destruction.

I used this feature last year, and I'm bringing it back again for use on the main site (there's no way to make it available on mobile, so if you read this on your phone you'll need to enable the full site). On the right sidebar with my post archives you'll find near the top I'm going to have standings for the CCIW all season long, with plans to update every day, or close to it. It will be easier once conference play starts, but overall it should be a good tool to keep tabs on the action.

Every year I've done a preview of North Central basketball, but it's only been the last couple years where I've split the women's and men's previews into their own posts. We'll start on the side I've been with for longer and take a look at the women's team first.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

For those of you who either ignored my warning yesterday afternoon or were intrigued by it, I have one thing to say to you this morning: Happy Nick Saban Is A Coward Week!

To be completely fair to Coach Saban, it's not just him. During last year's Nick Saban Is A Coward Week, five other teams joined in on the cowardice of playing an FCS team the second to last week of the regular season, and all of those coaches are equally as cowardly as Saban. Saban is just the highest profile coach of a team who does this, and thus has the indignity of getting this week named after him.

Also to be fair, there are still other non-conference games that need to be factored into NCSS scores, and with the way the Sun Belt has scheduled out its season, they could finally supplant the MAC atop the conference rankings. But we have to check to find out.

You can find a primer on how the NCSS metric works in my season introductory post. Below are the ten FBS conference ranked by average NCSS.

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

I mentioned it early this morning, but in case you didn't see, chaos reigned during Week 11 of the college season. There was even a little bit in D-III as well, where the playoff brackets are built, North Central won the CCIW's automatic bid, and until they get bounced in a disappointing Round 2 performance by UW-Oshkosh or something to that effect, all is right with the world.

Meanwhile, the selection committee for the College Football Playoff has a tall task on its hands, but not as tall as I've got. They only have to fill four spots; I have to fill 16. Now what helps is that, per the design created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan and perfected in the book pictured here, 10 of those spots go to conference champions, the way God and nature intended, yet is perverted by the greed of the big time conference commissioners. So it is that every year I try to take this system built by these authors, and set up a 16 team playoff the way they intend: seeded and on campuses through three rounds.

The trick is how to build the field. Since I don't have the benefit of a selection committee, I use a number of metrics to try and help myself out. To a very minor extent I look at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to see how tough teams made their out of conference schedules. This is mainly just a look at road/home imbalance and how Power Five teams tend to fill their schedules with home games against Group of Five teams (and tomorrow, you get my best rant of the year as to how Nick Saban is a coward). More weight then gets put on First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP). This is basically a tabulation of wins of vanquished teams by a given program, then a deeper look at how good those teams actually were, and then an adjustment to factor in losses. Finally, to make sure I get rid of any bias, I also look at three separate computer rankings: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS).

These factors are all kind of organically combined to build the 16 team field that would decide a national champion. After much consideration, as well as some waiting for computer rankings to update while I was working on this, here is the sixth mock bracket of the season.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 11

Wow. Where to begin?

I always expect some degree of chaos in college football, but not like this. The top of the College Football Playoff rankings got shaken up last night, which means last week's mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs needs to be blown up and rebuilt from scratch. But I'll get to that later.

For now, as I've done every Monday morning for the past several weeks, I'm running through results and updating my spreadsheet for Playoff Points. If you need a refresher on how these work, you can view that in my season introductory post.

Below are the averages for win totals and First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points for each conference, along with how they rank.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 10

We're past the halfway point of the 2017 NFL season, and the coalition marches on!

Adam had a nice bounceback week, taking three of four disputed games (including two of three hero picks) to not only extend his lead that he's held all season, but also to move back into a tie for first place with Geoffrey Clark. My dad is even starting to catch back up to the pack a little bit. You can look at our ESPN standings here, but with a Week 1 error on there, you can view correct standings and a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here.

This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

We're officially a week away from Nick Saban Is A Coward Week... not my favorite week of the college football season, but one of the more fun ones because of the potshots I get to take.

Last week saw the beginning of full on MACtion, which part of me wishes would take place sooner in the schedule, but once the World Series ends there's not a ton of competition on TV, and it gives every team a chance to get their bye weeks in.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Here's what's on tap for Week 11.

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

I think we're down to just four weeks of the college football season left, which means there aren't too many mock brackets left to make. But every week, things seem to keep getting more and more confusing in the college football landscape, which makes building these mocks more and more complicated.

If you're unfamiliar with this playoff system, it's pretty simple. It's an expanded version of what college football currently uses, based on the system outlined by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in the book pictured here: 16 team playoff, with each conference champion getting an automatic bid, and higher seeds host for the first three rounds. It enhances the college football regular season by attaching meaning to far more games.

Now, to fill and seed the field, the authors wanted a selection committee, and for the purposes of this series of posts, I take on the mantle of selection committee. But I don't just blindly fill the field. I use a number of metrics to help me make my decisions. I look a little bit at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to see how tough of a non-conference slate teams built. More importantly, I look at results based on how good defeated teams are. That's where First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively), come into play. Then to reduce any bias on my part, I look at computer rankings from Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to create the seedings.

So, without further ado, let's build another mock bracket!

2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 10

I'm back on my normal schedule with these posts, which is good because there was chaos again this past week.

As I did last week and all season to date, on Monday I go through what each team pulled off over the weekend, then run the numbers comparing every conference to each other. We've for the most part settled into a pecking order, but some teams have better metrics than others. I'll look into team rankings after the conference ones.

If you need a refresher on what each score stands for and how they get computed, you can view that back in my season introductory post.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 9

In the wake of maybe the greatest NFL trade deadline ever, the coalition returns to picking games against the spread!

Adam is back home from California, though he did pretty well for himself out on the West Coast. He took four of our seven disputed games to increase his lead over me to three games. That said, Geoffrey Clark has increased his own lead atop our group. You can take a look at our ESPN standings here, and a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here.

When Adam sent me his picks this week, he included this little nugget.

I was reminded a few days ago that this week (Week 9) 3 years ago I executed the most fabulous picks... cheerleaders... all cheerleaders... well alas not this week; I have limited time between work, packing, moving boxes and painting... things are changing for the Quinn's... much like the NFL this past week.

...and you thought I was kidding about Adam making picks based on cheerleaders. His family's move just down the road a little bit in the suburbs of Dallas takes priority, but he still found time for his weekly contribution. This week, we disagree on just four games out of 13.