For the fifth straight week, the top of the standings at least partially changed hands, as Kristen remains in first but in a tie with Joe. But now there's a jumble just a couple games out of first place with a three-way tie for third. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here, which also adjusts for an early picking error on ESPN. Meanwhile, the standings below also take Addy's picks from Thanksgiving week into account, and she acquitted herself pretty well.
I haven't done my two-to-three times a week series of posts on the 2018 college football season because I wasn't sure if my work would end up coming to fruition. But the 2017 college football teams showed up on my simulator, which likely means the 2018 teams are going to be coming as well.
In the interim, I have been continuing to track college football results and update my usual set of metrics. With Conference Championship Weekend approaching, that means the field will soon have its ten automatic bid recipients, and I'll need to pick my six at large teams and seed everyone. But that's getting a little ahead of myself.
As I've done in years past, I will go through the schedule for Week 14, noting that there are some additional games going on based on postponements from the regular season. Those games will get factored into teams' numbers and will obviously impact some things in terms of computer rankings. But the important games... the games that will determine automatic bid winners? Information on those comes after the jump.
Game Summary
The outcome of this one was never really in doubt as the Cardinals (3-0) jumped out to an early 4-0 lead. The Scots (0-3) did score the next six points to grab a lead, but it was short-lived and their only one of the game as a 12-0 Cardinal run put the game firmly in North Central's control. Alma did manage to keep it relatively close for much of the first half, pulling back within four a few times, but the Cardinals made it a 45-33 game going into intermission. The second half was more of the same as North Central pushed its lead into the 20's about seven minutes in and led by as many as 25 in the second half, before with just under three minutes to play Todd Raridon called off the dogs and put in the end of his bench.
Key Players
Connor Raridon (NCC): 6-14 FG (1-1 3PT), 12-13 FT; 25 pts, 10 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk. After struggling from the field in the opener, Raridon has bounced back nicely with a good effort at Benedictine on Tuesday night followed by a dominant first half in this one. He got to the line ten times in the first half alone and hit a number of fallaways as Alma had no answer for him defensively. The double-double was also a nice way to end the game.
Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 7-12 FG (1-2 3PT), 3-4 FT; 18 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 1 ast. It was another nice night for Cap, this time as more of the complementary scorer to Raridon, but he had a phenomenal floor game, hitting both layups and jumpers in this one. He also got a nice tipin off a miss that I thought I saw him get, but our official scorer told me it was a Jack Bronec make. Apparently Cap was pointing at himself to try and get the credit, the Cardinal bench made those overtures as well, and we overrode it. Cap got credit for the basket in all official channels except over the PA, because by then the play was long over, and I did tell him after the game he got credit for it.
Kevin Gamble (ALMA): 6-9 FG (0-2 3PT), 2-3 FT; 14 pts, 8 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 1 stl. The Scot big had a pretty good night, taking advantage of North Central occasionally going small to find easy baskets. He missed his pair of three point attempts, and I'm not sure why he took either of them. To be fair to him though, he's a career 34.5 percent shooter from beyond the arc, but it wasn't Alma's night. See more below.
Key Stats
NCC: 22-27 FT (81.5%). Fouls were abundant in the first half, with each team getting whistled for a dozen. North Central made the most of this on their end, as many of Alma's first half fouls came on shot attempts, and the Cardinals made them pay, hitting 14 of 17 to help build that 12 point lead.
Alma: 4-20 3PT (20%). Alma is a team built around shooting. Two years ago they hit over 40 percent of their attempts as a team, with last year's numbers falling to about 36 percent. Through their first two games this season they were just below that mark, but tonight will drop their season average by a fairly significant margin. Their two highest volume shooters, Kyle Woodruff and Cole Kleiver, were a combined 2-10 from deep, while Kyle Stevens, who was red hot to start the year, heaved only one try from deep, missing it. The Scots hitting closer to their average would have made the game closer, but I don't think it would have impacted the outcome.
Final Thoughts
Fouls played a fairly significant role in this one, but the Cardinals took advantage early to build that lead and never relinquished it. To be fair, both teams adjusted well in the second half and the fouls were not as prevalent. Regardless, this was a good win for North Central, who has started the year 3-0, a good beginning for a group that lost two of its best players to graduation. The Cardinals next have a tough road trip (in the travel sense) to Finlandia on Tuesday, returning the home and home favor from last year against a team that wasn't very good. That will be the final tuneup before we kick off CCIW play a week from tonight as Millikin comes to town.
Like TV stations have their accelerated deadlines for commercial copy to air around holidays, Confessions of a Sportscaster is going up early this week due to the holiday and the early slate of games this week!
Adam is coming off starting last week "perfect," in a sense: he's the second person in contest history to go 0-for-the-afternoon-slates and only the first to be winless going into the Sunday night contest. His Sunday night and Monday night wins were the only things that saved him from the worst week in contest history. That brutal start helped me grab six of our seven disputed games from last week, including me going two of three on hero picks. I'm still nine games out of the overall lead at this juncture though.
The last of the byes occur this week, leaving full 16 game slates over the final five weeks. As for this week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 15. As a special holiday treat though, Adam had a guest picker to go alongside him this week:
Addy picked with me this week. I was half tempted to enter her picks, but provide both sets of explanations.
Addy's picks will appear below Adam's, but will count separate from his. They disagree on 11 games, while she and I disagree on only seven.
From all of us here at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a wonderful Thanksgiving! Let's get to the picks.
Game Summary
Things got off to a slow start as the Cardinals (1-0) scored on the opening possession but surrendered the lead almost immediately to the Student Princes (0-1). But the Cardinals quickly got the lead back and led by as many as seven in the first half before the Princes fought back to make it a 26-24 game at the break. Heidelberg hit a three just 12 seconds into the second half to take the lead back, but the Cardinals responded with an 11-1 run to recapture command of the game. Heidelberg hung tough, but a couple threes by the Cardinals pushed the lead to 13 with under 10 minutes to go. The Princes would get no closer than seven the rest of the way as the Cardinals were able to put the game away.
Key Players
Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 6-12 FG (0-2 3PT), 7-9 FT; 19 pts, 11 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 1 stl. On an off night for guys like Connor Raridon (3-14 FG), it was nice to see a guy like Cap pick up the slack in the scoring department. He also did a good job on the boards as well as putting the game away late at the line. This is big year for the junior, who will need to step up on a team without a true elite big.
Blaise Meredith (NCC): 3-7 FG (0-3 3PT), 4-5 FT; 10 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 stl, 1 blk. Blaise was a key spark plug for this team. He played excellent defense, picking a couple pockets for some wide open dunks that got the crowd (and himself) into a frenzy. The fact that he crashed the boards with such impunity helped as well.
Myron Prewitt (HEI): 4-8 FG (0-2 3PT), 2-5 FT; 10 pts, 11 reb (4 off). Prewitt is the main returning piece from last year's Heidelberg team, but he got off to a slow start in this one, posting just two points and four rebounds in the first half. His second half was better, albeit flawed, as he picked up a key technical following getting fouled on a shot, so instead of trimming the Berg deficit to seven, it was held at nine. He would foul out a couple minutes later.
Key Stats
NCC: 3-23 3PT (13.0%). I talked to assistant coach Vince Kmiec after the game, as well as a few fans/insiders I've developed relationships with over the past few years, and the common refrain was about how this was a sloppy game. This was part of the reason why. But we all agreed there's too much shooting talent on this team for them to shoot this poorly every night. One game I'm willing to ignore as an aberration, and the fact that this team still found a way to win speaks volumes.
Heidelberg: 9-16 FT (56.3%). I wonder if this played as big a role in the Student Prince defeat. They hit both attempts in the first half before falling to a 50 percent clip in the second half. Making even three or four more of those wouldn't have changed the outcome, but it might have made things a little more interesting down the stretch.
Final Thoughts
Like I mentioned above, this game was a little sloppy for both teams, but North Central especially. They aren't going to shoot this poorly though, so I'm optimistic going forward. The concern I have is going to be how this team will match up. Their big flaw this season, after years of it not being an issue, is the lack of size. Jack Bronec was the only true "big" on this team to see action on Saturday, and it was for only 16 minutes. He played well (6 points, 5 rebounds, an assist and a block), but the Cardinals don't have much behind him other than a very green Jack Clausel, who didn't see the floor.
Instead, the Cardinals spent a bunch of time playing small ball with Cappelletti and Raridon as your forwards and a rotating backcourt. I do think they can get away with this against a lot of teams, the most notable exceptions being Augie and Illinois Wesleyan. They're a little ways ahead though, so I don't want to start worrying about those games yet. And the Cardinals won't either... not with the Battle of Chicago/Maple Avenue coming up tomorrow night.
Officially, the Division III basketball season has already begun. But North Central's entry into the fray was later than anyone else's, hence the delay in getting this post up. But with their season opener forthcoming, let's take a look at how the men's basketball team shapes up heading into a new campaign.
The rest of the group was thrown into some disarray this past week. The top of the standings changed once again as Aiden continues his torrid stretch and finds himself alone in first place for the first time. He has a three game lead on Joe and a four game lead on Kristen, with Jen just six games out. The big drop came from Geoffrey Clark, who tied the record for worst week in contest history only because he forgot to make his picks until the late afternoon slate. He did reach out yesterday to confirm that he made all his picks for this week.
Game Summary
Kicking off a new era of North Central basketball, the Cardinals (1-0) took a few minutes to get on the board as the Prairie Fire (0-1) scored the game's first five points. But the Cardinals hung around to only trail by one after the first quarter. The Cardinals took a four point lead early in the second, but the Fire went on a 10-0 run to flip the script, and they took a 28-22 lead into the break. They would lead by as many as ten in the third quarter, but a 9-0 Cardinal run got it close again, and the teams traded one point leads to end the third, with Knox leading 38-37 with ten minutes to go. The Cardinals grabbed the lead about a minute into the fourth and never relinquished it, following that up with back to back threes, and the Prairie Fire never got back within four after that.
Key Players
Alanna Newsome (NCC): 5-12 FG (2-6 3PT), 5-7 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 4 ast, 3 stl. Newsome played well in North Central's exhibition at Loyola last weekend and followed that up with an outstanding game off the bench tonight. She hit the second of the back to back threes in the fourth to give North Central a seven point edge and was phenomenal on defense.
Tyonne Howard (NCC): 2-10 FG (1-5 3PT), 3-8 FT; 8 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk. Howard didn't have the best night on offense, but she was everywhere on defense as well. Howard came up with the ball on defense more than three times, but was the beneficiary of some great defense by teammates as well. The shots will fall on other nights, so it was good to see her find other ways to be a key piece.
Jarrelyn McCall (KNOX): 8-17 FG (0-1 3PT), 1-2 FT; 17 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 1 stl. McCall was the big reason why the Prairie Fire had the halftime lead, as she took over the game in the second quarter, scoring 11 points. But she was quiet much of the second half despite having a solid game on the boards.
Key Stats
NCC: 13 steals. A lot of this was chaos being caused by Howard and Newsome, but the team defense was outstanding. All told, the Cardinals forced 25 turnovers, including drawing three offensive fouls/
Knox: 1-12 3PT (8.3%). Knox's outside shots just didn't fall, as they missed all eight attempts in the second half. That's a little bit of luck for a North Central team that also struggled a bit from deep (7-27 for 25.7%). Both teams will shoot better as the season goes on.
Final Thoughts
I decided to change up the pattern a little bit this year, sticking with the three "Key Stats" only changing it specifically to players while then making sure to touch on some of the team stats. Given the coaching change as well, I had to drop the old "System Watch" as well. Once conference play starts I will still go through scores there as well.
All in all, this was a pretty good game. It wasn't the prettiest at times as North Central shot poorly in the first half before getting it figured out late, but the defense was excellent in this one, hence the 13 steals. One thing I worry about still is free throws, as North Central hit just 60 percent of theirs. But they hit enough late to seal the deal, which is all that matters.
It's a nice first win for Maggie McCloskey-Bax, and I'm already excited for this season. This is going to be a fun team to watch this year, especially since this group seems to have a fire and a swagger I haven't seen in a while. They hit the road now for the rest of the month, with their next game coming in about a week and a half against Benedictine.
The coalition is chugging on as we enter the double digit weeks and second half of the NFL season!
The top of the standings have changed once again; Kristen has moved back into a tie for first place with her brother Joe, while Aiden fell to a game back. You can view the standings here (bearing in mind that there is a picking error where Adam has one more win than he should on ESPN).
We finally got a couple of consensus picks correct after missing our first eight this past week; you can view all of our picks in relation to each other here. Those two consensus wins were almost the only success for one member of the coalition: I took six of seven disputed picks from Adam last week as his old strategy of Opposite Week, ironically, went the opposite of how he intended it to go. I'm well back of the top of the pack, but I've got a pretty large cushion through nine weeks to stay out of the basement.
This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14. Due to work commitments, Adam's picks this week are a little shorter than normal, but he still found time to get them in. Let's see if I can get a little more cushion on him and make up some ground at the top!
Earlier this year the NCAA voted to move up the start date of basketball season, so I get to resume the gradual destruction of my vocal cords a little earlier this year!
Officially, the season begins on November 8th, so I'll have the men's preview out next week. The women's preview comes well in advance for reasons you will read about coming up. Let's get to it!
As the calendar turns to November, the halfway point of the NFL season is upon us as the coalition enters its ninth week of picking games against the spread!
Really, the only good news from last week is that I took five of the seven disputed games from Adam to open up a six game lead on him. Unfortunately for me, that six game lead is what's keeping me out of the cellar in the group. You can view the full standings here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on ESPN than he's supposed to due to an early picking error.
Meanwhile, we have a change at the top of the standings as Kristen's long run atop the standings comes to an end. She is now a game back of her brother Joe, who finally leapfrogged her, and a red hot Aiden, who has literally gone worst-to-first in the span of four weeks. You can see a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other here, noting that we are still winless in consensus picks.
Moving onto Week 9, Adam's desperation to get out of last place has led him back to an old gimmick:
Once again I had a terrible week, so I am going to employ an older tactic of mine: opposite week. I will write my justification for one team, but actually pick the opposing team on ESPN. For example, if I pick the Bills to cover against the Bears, I would justify why the Bills will cover, but then actually pick the Bears on ESPN. This will be represented like this in each pick: Adam: Bills Bears.
This week, we disagree on seven games out of 13. Let's get to it!
