Sunday, August 31, 2014

AFC West Preview

Everyone has their fourth and final preseason game in the books, so this is the last Sunday for a while without NFL football. The excitement is getting close. With two divisions left to go, each conference still has a wild card that I haven't accounted for, which means there's one more on the docket today.

With just a few days left, you still have time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. It's free to join with an ESPN account (also free), and you can pick games against the spread with me and see how you can compare with someone who's happened to be above .500 the last two seasons.

Advertisement out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, the AFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2013: 13-3 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVIII
The Broncos broke records upon records last year, with Peyton Manning throwing for 55 touchdowns. There will be some regression to the mean this season, especially with Wes Welker missing at least part of the season with a concussion. Manning still has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to throw to though, plus a decent running game with Montee Ball. I question this defense a bit though. Adding Aqib Talib was a good move for the secondary, but I'm not sure how good Rahim Moore will be. The defection of DeMarcus Ware is a big move though too, especially when you have him playing with Von Miller. But really, as long as Peyton is around, the Broncos are the team to beat.
2014 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2013: 9-7 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The power of Phillip Rivers' bolo tie showed up late in the season as the Bolts won their final four games to sneak into the playoffs, and even picked up a playoff win. Early last year, everyone (me included) were down on Rivers. Now, he's worked his way back into the upper tiers of quarterbacks.  It helps that he has some solid weapons again this year with wideouts like Keenan Allen, and Antonio Gates is a veteran presence in the middle of the field. Their running game should be good too with the depth they have. I'm not sure what to make of the defense after they gave up the fourth-most passing yards in 2013. The third place schedule should help a bit though.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
This team was kind of a paper tiger last year; after starting 9-0, they closed the year with a 2-6 mark, including that playoff collapse at Indy. If there's some health on this roster the Chiefs will be in contention for a playoff spot, but I'm not super sold on the depth on defense. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe need to stay healthy. Meanwhile on offense, Dwayne Bowe had a down year again. Is it Alex Smith, or is he past his prime? And just how good is Alex Smith? With Andy Reid at the helm, they can probably do some damage on offense, especially with Jamaal Charles. I just think last year had some flukiness to it.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
The Raiders got next to nothing from the quarterback spot last year. It's a question this year of which Matt Schaub they got: 2012 or 2013. Rookie Derek Carr could take over if it's the latter. The ground game is intriguing this year with the addition of Maurice Jones-Drew to back up Darren McFadden, but in the air, will the Curse of Leaving Aaron Rodgers hurt James Jones like it hurt Greg Jennings? On defense, Khalil Mack will eventually be a big part of this defense, but a lot of the rest looks like veteran retreads (Nick Roach, Charles Woodson and Justin Tuck to name three). Probably not a good year for the silver and black yet again.
2014 Prediction: 4-12


With the AFC done, here's a look at how I would seed the playoffs.
  1. Denver Broncos: 12-4
  2. Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
  3. New England Patriots: 10-6
  4. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6
  5. Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
  6. San Diego Chargers: 9-7
Labor Day is tomorrow, but I still have some football posts to do. However, I'm taking a couple day break from the NFL to go back to covering college football. Tomorrow I look at the games from Week 1, then Tuesday will be coverage of the Week 2 schedule. Wednesday I will have my final division preview with the home of the defending champs.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

NFC North Preview

This is one that I and probably most of the readership was looking forward to. Seeing as I work in Chicago and live in the western suburbs, a lot of my readers are probably here, though I know this blog randomly gets reads from around the world (a lot from Russia for some reason). Today, we look to see if the oldest and greatest NFL rivalry is tilted the other way.

In the meantime, I'm still taking entries for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. I'll have another Bears fan picking games here on COAS with me to provide some semblance of balance, but you can compete against us at the link above. It's free to sign up and join, and you can prove me wrong dozens of times over!

With that out of the way, here's how I see the NFC North unfolding.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC East

1. Green Bay Packers
2013: 8-7-1 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
For years, the Packers have had to deal with a ton of major guys missing time due to injury... and yet they've continued to find ways to make the playoffs. Last year the bigger deal was a horrible defense. BJ Raji is already out for the year with a torn bicep, so they'll need their youth to step up. Tramon Williams and Sam Shields need to have bounceback years at corner, but the big hole last year was at safety. Moving Micah Hyde helps, and I was excited to see Ted Thompson draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to help out. On offense, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are a good 1-2 punch, with a lot of youth behind them. Rookie of the year Eddie Lacy is back, as is James Starks. Oh, and that Aaron Rodgers guy. He's pretty good, I guess. As long as he's healthy, the Packers will be fine.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Chicago Bears
2013: 8-8 (2nd), missed playoffs
When I was growing up, the Bears were about good, if not great, defense and horrible offense. That script has flipped. The Bears have arguably the best 1-2 receiver punch in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. They have a very good tight end in Martellus Bennett. Matt Forte is one of the best complete backs in the league. The question mark is Jay Cutler. People are talking about him as an MVP candidate, but he needs to be smarter with the ball. The big question mark here though is defense. Julius Peppers defected to Green Bay, but the Bears replaced him with Jared Allen. He lines up opposite Lamarr Houston, so there's a retooled D-line. If Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman do Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman things again this year, the Bears could steal the division.
2014 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Detroit Lions
2013: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
Reggie Bush was a godsend for this offense last year. He topped 1000 yards and helped balance things out so Matthew Stafford could keep throwing bombs to Megatron. Golden Tate is a good counterpart to him, and there's a lot of talent at tight end. They'll light up some scoreboards. Unfortunately for them, their opponents will probably also light up some scoreboards. I really don't think the secondary improved, and up front, Nick Fairley showed up to training camp overweight. They'll need to win a lot of 35-31 type games to have a shot at the postseason.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Minnesota Vikings
2013: 5-10-1 (4th), missed playoffs
Minnesota is trying its hand at another first round quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, but he won't see the field right away. Instead Matt Cassel gets to show what he can do. I'm not totally sold on him though through no fault of his own; his weapons are the same as last year. Making Norv Turner the offensive coordinator should help though, as it unleashes Adrian Peterson in the passing game. Could be deadly. Some of the defensive line depth is gone now (there's no "Williams" at tackle anymore), and I'm not impressed with the secondary. Captain Munnerlyn is a decent addition, but wasn't a world beater with Carolina. The Vikes need more weapons and defensive help before they can compete with the aerial assaults this division can launch.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

Two wild cards are in, two more remain. Tomorrow I'll head out west for the second-to-last preview before the season starts. That's on Thursday! We're almost there!

Friday, August 29, 2014

AFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we've been working our way around the country. Half the league is done, and we have yet to come across any wild cards. Playing the odds, you'll probably see one today, right? Read on to find out.

Because I have no shame, I'd like to once again invite you readers to join in on picking games against the spread with me. ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em is free, and you can join the COAS group to see how well you can do picking games against me. After all, I can be an idiot sometimes.

But for now, let's get to today's preview. Today, we take a look at the AFC North.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC South

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
While I think he's a good quarterback, I don't understand why the Bengals gave Andy Dalton a 9 figure deal. He leads a good offense though; there's a solid two-pronged rushing attack of Giovani Bernard and the Law Firm, and AJ Green is a legitimate #1 receiver. On defense, the front seven is solid, and while I'm not as high on the secondary as I am that front unit, they allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league last year. That has to count for something. They're good enough to make the playoffs again. I'm just not sold on what happens when they get there.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Baltimore Ravens
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
The Ravens are one of 15 defending Super Bowl champs to miss the playoffs in their title defense year. A down year offensively didn't help (the Ravens were 18th in passing and 30th in rushing last year), and missing Ray Rice for the first two games for being a horrible fiancé during the offseason hurts them too (it should hurt them more than just two games, but that's another story). Joe Flacco gets another weapon this year in Steve Smith, which should help the passing game somewhat. The wheels didn't fall off too bad on defense last year either, and the unit they have isn't too shabby. Drafting CJ Mosley out of Alabama was a good pick in the first, and if he can live up to the standard of Ray Lewis, the Ravens should be in the hunt again this year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Cleveland Browns
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Call me crazy, but this defense should be good. Joe Haden is like Nnamdi Asomugha was during his Oakland days, and adding Justin Gilbert to play opposite him makes for a pretty darn good corner tandem. It's the offense that gives me pause. Miles Austin is pretty much the #1 receiver by default since Josh Gordon is done for the year due to suspension. The running game isn't good unless Ben Tate turns into a sleeper, and I'm not sure what to make at quarterback. Brian Hoyer was decent for stretches last year, but if he struggles, Johnny Manziel waits in the wings. (Honestly, I think he's overrated. Will probably become an average starter someday, but not this year).
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
This is probably the biggest "Huh?" that I'm calling for this season., but I think the recent news about top two running backs LeGarrette Blount and Le'veon Bell facing possible suspensions really hurts. Even with Big Ben leading the offense, I'm not sold on their receivers either. There are some interesting names on defense, like first round pick Ryan Shazier, but Troy Polamalu isn't getting any younger. This might be a stretch, but I have a hunch it's going to be a down year for the black and gold.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

There's one wild card, which means the other is coming from the AFC West. If you're looking for a football fix tomorrow before the college games start, I can oblige, especially for my local readers. The NFC North predictions will be up tomorrow! Will they be able to sneak two teams into the playoffs? Check back in the morning and find out!

Thursday, August 28, 2014

NFC East Preview

We're just a week away now! The NFL season is on the horizon, and I have five more divisions to get to. Today I'm switching back over to the NFC but staying out on the East Coast... you know, other than Dallas.

With a week to go, there is still time to get in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the provided link to go to the group page and sign up. It's free to play, and you have an opportunity to make me look like a complete idiot. Everyone wins.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how the NFC East might unfold.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC South

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2013: 10-6 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
Not the easiest schedule in the world for second year coach Chip Kelly. He has the first place teams in the NFC plus the NFC West. Even with that, there's no reason to think this offense still can't blur their way down the field. They were a top-10 passing team and the top rushing attack in 2013. Those numbers will probably drop a bit with Desean Jackson departed for Washington. Shady McCoy will still probably put up huge numbers though. The biggest problem though remains in that this defense couldn't stop a nosebleed last year. They'll have to rely on winning shootouts. Fortunately for them, that's something they can do.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Dallas Cowboys
2013: 8-8 (2nd), missed playoffs
So, other than Jerry Jones turning into Uncle Creepy... this was more of the same old, same old from Arlington. The cap situation is a mess, the team itself is a mess... and yet somehow, despite my grandfather-in-law's lack of faith in this team (he lives in the Dallas area), they'll be in position to make the playoffs in the final week before blowing it in unbelievable fashion. Tony Romo will continue to put up numbers, especially as long as Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are healthy. Problem is, this defense... oh boy. We might see a lot of games like last year's shootout with Denver.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

3. Washington Redskins
2013: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
With the benefit of a (hopefully) healthy RG3 and a last place schedule, the Redskins should be on the way back up this season. Having Desean Jackson defect helps a lot too. Offensively, between the passing game and the Alfred Morris/Roy Helu running back tandem, they'll be fine. It's the defense that's concerning, much like the rest of the division. Picking up Ryan Clark is a pretty good addition to a secondary that will need the help, given Brandon Meriweather is being a thug again. As long as Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan get a decent pass rush, the Skins can be in contention again this year.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. New York Giants
2013: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The G-Men had an off year last year, especially Eli. I doubt he'll have an 18/27 touchdown to pick ration again. It'll be interesting to see though if Rueben Randle can become a competent #2 receiver across from Victor Cruz though. I really don't know what to expect on the ground though; Rashad Jennings was okay as part of a tandem last year, but who backs him up? On defense, getting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie helps shore up the secondary, but can the Giants get the pass rush they've gotten during their two recent Super Bowl runs? If not, it could be a long year in the Meadowlands.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

And with that, we're at the halfway mark. And so far, no wild cards have shown up. You can check back tomorrow to see if one is present in the AFC North.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

AFC East Preview

We're back from the distractions! With Week 1 of the college football schedule numbers out of the way, I can return to NFL-related posting.

Today we head out to the East Coast and look at the AFC teams out there. It's all but been a one team division since the last expansion, but will there really be any difference this year?

Random aside before we begin: I'm still taking entries for another week in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em competition. Want to pick games against the spread with me and a guest picker on a weekly basis? Follow the link above to join for free!

All right, enough shameless plugs. Let's get to it.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC North

1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
As long as Tom Brady remains at quarterback for New England, the Pats will be the favorites in the division. The big question remains about their weapons though. When your best two wideouts are Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, you have to be slightly concerned, especially when Rob Gronkowski is still a question mark in terms of health. On defense, the Pats might finally have their stoppers at cornerback after signing Brandon Browner and picking up Darelle Revis. He may not be what we was four years ago, but Revis should be a big help to a middle-of-the-pack back end from last year.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Jets
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Surprise, surprise: the big thing we heard out of Jets camp is big talk. It's what the Jets are best at. It only makes sense then that they picked up Chris Johnson in the offseason, though whether he can regain his form from his heyday remains to be seen. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Calvin Pace called this defense the best in the NFL. Um... no. There's definitely some good young talent in Dee Milliner and Calvin Pryor in the secondary. I'm not totally sold on the rest though. This isn't a bad team like they were towards the end of the Mark Sanchez era. Geno Smith needs to markedly improve from his rookie campaign though if the Jets want to compete.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Really, I'm not sure how last year could have gone worse for the 'Fins. They had the huge controversy with Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin; now both men are gone. Mike Wallace struggled in his first year in Miami, and will need to have a better year if the Dolphins want to compete. The defense is all right, and they added a decent safety in Louis Delmas, but the biggest what-if for Miami is Ryan Tannehill. He's been average in his first couple years, and needs to make a leap if they want a shot at the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
EJ Manuel is in Year Two, and hopefully for the Bills is more prepared this season. He has a fun new toy to work with in first round pick Sammy Watkins. This might mean some serious passing yardage this year, we'll have to see. On defense Jairus Byrd is gone, and now there's something of a void in the middle of the field. The front seven isn't terrible though, depending on how well Mario Williams plays this season. It'll be a rough year I think though, as Manuel continues to go through some growing pains.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'll be back at it tomorrow as we switch conferences and go to arguably the weakest division in football in the NFC East. Also, I get to make fun of Jerry Jones again. Good times.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

We're here! The college football season officially kicks off tomorrow night, and with that, the preparations for the playoffs begin! You can read up on how the playoffs will be set up at the introductory post here. But basically, every Tuesday will be the kickoff of a new week of the season, so every Tuesday I will go through the schedule for the upcoming week and break it down for the NCSS ranking.

While it's imperfect, basically either going on the road or playing a "Power conference" opponent gets you more points, while teams are penalized for cupcake games (even though I understand their purpose, as far as your strength of schedule goes, you deserve a hit for it). What I do in this post is take the average score for each conference on a week by week basis (rounded to the nearest hundredth for ease), with some specifics about what teams are doing. On the whole, the independents will obviously have the highest scores, followed by teams that have more non-conference games (likely, the SEC with its 8 game conference slates will have higher scores than the Big XII teams, with their 9 game conference slates), so it's a flawed system in some ways. But it can help determine the strength of the part of the schedule teams can control. Let's take a look at our opening slate.


Monday, August 25, 2014

NFC South Preview

We're back at it this morning, a little earlier since I'm back at the office. I'm up against the clock, so I'm working to get all of my NFL previews up in time for the season to start in 10 days. With the college season starting up this week, I have to get those posts in too, so I'll have a break from the NFL tomorrow before getting back to it on Wednesday.

I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.

With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. New Orleans Saints
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Carolina Panthers
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

AFC South Preview

We're almost here! I've been kind of anxious for the NFL season to get underway for a while now. I've been wanting to get to preparing for another college football playoff, a process that starts Tuesday, but I'm just as excited for the pro level to begin.

Like in previous years, I'm going division by division to preview how I think teams are going to finish the 2014 campaign. Like last year, I'm ending with the division of the defending champ, so the NFC West will pop up next week.

Also this year, I will be renewing the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em, and I will be re-instituting picking with a guest writer. He's been excited to join in on this since during the season last year, and I'm excited to have him.

So without further ado, let's dive into the previews, starting with the AFC South.

Common opponents: AFC North, NFC East

1.  Indianapolis Colts
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The schedule gets tougher for this year's Colts after they reclaimed ownership of the division last year. To me for this year, the bigger issue is the offensive line, and how well they do protecting third-year star Andrew Luck. Luck has good weapons at receiver again this year, but I wonder about his running game too. Will Trent Richardson bounce back from an awful year last year? And what about the defense? They've gotten away with it the past couple years in terms of getting to the postseason, but will they hold up against the attacks of teams like Philly, Denver and New England? I think given their overall schedule, they'll be fine.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Houston Texans
2013: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
One of the biggest goofs I made last year? Picking the Texans to repeat as division champs. For whatever reason, Matt Schaub turned into a pick-6 machine and Houston couldn't really stop anything. They shored up their defense in the offseason, including drafting Jadeveon Clowney to line up opposite JJ Watt, which is terrifying. Facing a last place schedule, they have some very winnable games. Bill O'Brien proved he's a good coach during his stint at Penn State. But can he get Ryan Fitzpatrick back to the level he was at a few years ago when he got that big contract from Buffalo? If he does, the Texans might contend for a wild card.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Tennessee Titans
2013: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The keys to the Titan offense have officially been passed to Jake Locker. Looking at his stats, he's actually been a bit better than I would have thought. They made a change at running back too, with Shonn Greene taking over the starting running back role with the departure of Chris Johnson. I'm not too sold on their receiving corps, with Nate Washington as the #1 guy. Defensively, I'm not really sold on these guys either. And Tennessee isn't playing New England, so the Bernard Karmell Pollard curse isn't a factor.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013: 4-12 (3rd), missed playoffs
This team was bad last year (remember, they were 27.5 point dogs at Denver last year). The advantage of being so bad? They potentially have their franchise quarterback now in Blake Bortles, though we said that about Blaine Gabbert too. Problem is, their starting running back is Toby Gerhart, though he was a good backup to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Meanwhile, this is a bad defense that really didn't do a lot to improve. They're on the right track as long as Bortles develops well, but they're not going anywhere this year.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'm back to work tomorrow, and I'll switch conferences over to the NFC South.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Dead BCS, Living Better Playoff

In 2012, the yearnings of fans finally broke through the corrupt umbrella of the big conference commissioners: the FBS level schools finally agreed to put an end to the travesty known as the BCS and adopt a playoff to determine a champion. So for the first time, biased and uninformed polls as well as corrupt computer formulas won't decide a paper champion in college football. This year, a selection committee picks the four teams that will get to play for a title. It's a step in the right direction... but it's not quite enough.

This is the new playoff. It's a start.
My concern remains that the committee will be biased towards the big conferences, even if a mid major runs the table. This is why I continue to advocate for the system created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in Death to the BCS. Though with realignment, we have 10 conferences instead of 11, I still like the idea of a 16 team tournament where in reality, every team has a chance to play for a title (win your conference, and you're automatically in). The odds of, say, the Sun Belt champion going on the road to Tuscaloosa or some other traditional football power source and winning is very slim, but they at least have a shot at it, unlike how the old system (and even the current system) plays out.

So for the fourth year in a row (I guess technically third, since the first year had a belated test run with the system), I will be building a playoff using the Wetzel, Peter and Passan system. Sixteen teams enter: the ten conference champions all get in automatically, with the rest of the field being filled out by either independents who ran the table, or any teams that saw some stumbling blocks on their road but still played excellent football for three months. And as I've gotten more experience following regular season results to build a field, I've been able to advance my tools to help me build said field.

The teams that make the tournament are seeded by a selection committee (read: me, though contact me if you want to be a part of the committee to give me another set of eyes and another brain to help decide these things) in an evolving process. The first time was a very organic "Who had the best records, and of them, who had the best wins and/or the least egregious losses?" process. This has since led to my building new metrics to help me out, or borrowing them from Illinois' high school football system. I've made some tweaks to the system this year.


Friday, August 15, 2014

Game Notes: Quad Cities River Bandits @ Kane County Cougars (8/14/14)

Final Score
It was a relatively quick game that started as a pitchers duel. The River Bandits (60-61) had a few early chances, but couldn't push a run across. Meanwhile, the Cougars (77-45) didn't see a base runner until the 5th. Quad Cities manufactured a run in the 6th and with their pitching, it seemed like a good chance of holding up. But the Kane County bats came to life in the 8th when they scored their 4 runs and shut the door in the 9th to lock down the sweep.

Pitchers of Record
W: Jasvir Rakkar (1-0)- 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB. The Canadian prospect came in in the 8th to maintain the status quo, and did well. Gave up all fly ball outs, but hey, whatever works.
L: Troy Scribner (0-2)- 7.1 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 5 H, 10 K. The undrafted 23-year-old looked really good, retiring the first 14 men he faced. (Full confession: I alluded to the perfect game to my wife trying not to jinx it. My bad.) He had no problems up until the 8th, when the first four guys all hit the ball pretty hard... Especially the last guy he faced.

Key Stats
  • Trey Martin (KC)- 1-3, HR (2), 3 RBI. I was up getting Dippin Dots during the rally. A leadoff double was followed by a line out and a base hit to set the stage for what turned out to be Martin's game-winner. I could tell purely by sound it was hit well, but I had to rely on other fans to know that it was gone, just over the wall by the scoreboard.
  • Duane Underwood (KC)- 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K. The Cougar starter only lasted 5 because of a fairly high pitch count. After a perfect first inning, he gave up a single and a walk to start the second inning. A groundout moved the runners over, but a great play at first nailed the runner going home for the second out and he escaped. In the third, the River Bandits loaded the bases with one out but Underwood struck out the next two guys. Then in the 4th after giving up a leadoff single, catcher Victor Caratini threw out the runner trying to steal. Underwood then walked the next batter before inducing an inning-ending double play.
  • James Ramsay (QC)- 1-5, 1B, 2 SB. The Astro's 2013 7th round pick hit the ball really well last night. He opened the game with a rocket the opposite way that Shawon Dunston, Jr. made a great catch at the wall on. He singled with one out in the third, stole second ahead of a Bobby Boyd walk, then swiped third as part of a double steal. He would advance no further. Keep an eye on this guy though; he's got 28 steals on the season. In just over a full season's worth of games, he's only hitting .243 between short-season A-ball and the Midwest League, but he's got a .336 on base percentage and 35 steals in 46 attempts.

Final Thoughts
Growing up, heading out to Geneva to catch a Cougars game was always a treat. After a few year hiatus, it was good to get back for an amazing game last year. I'd wanted to bring Kristen along for a game out here, so we went with my dad and Logan. I think Kristen mainly came for the food (there were funnel cakes right behind our seats), but overall I think she had a pretty good time. As for the game, the Cougars have had some magic at home this season, and it showed last night as they came from behind late to rally and win. They've already locked up a playoff berth after winning the Midwest League Western Division First Half title, but they've just kept rolling, and are in first place in the second half too. Maybe we'll see a 2014 Midwest League Championship for this amazing Minor League program.