I spent a couple weeks crowing about my Thanksgiving heater, and early in the slate things looked okay... then I went ice cold in the late afternoon and Sunday night games. Adam took four of six disputed games, including going a perfect 3-0 on hero picks, to push his lead over me back to nine games while I still find myself in a tie for second (Adam's tiebreaker stuff be damned), with Geoffrey just one game behind us in fourth.
You can view the standings here, with a couple asterisks. Adam has one more point on here than he should due to an earlier picking error. Meanwhile, after I've spent years giving Adam crap for screwing up, I finally did by forgetting to log my picks on ESPN, meaning I missed the deadline for the Bears-Lions game on Thanksgiving. So in reality, I have one more point on ESPN than I should. You can see accurate standings, as well as how we've all picked in relation to each other, here.
I've all but resigned myself to the pattern holding firm and Adam winning yet another odd numbered year, but with 64 games left, we can't guarantee that. This week, he and I disagree on seven games out of 16, so I've got a chance to make a dent. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Bears. I shouldn't trust Mitch even though he looked pretty good against a bad Lions defense, but I don't exactly trust the Cowboys either, hence me repeatedly posting the meme. I'm holding off on the meme this week only because seeing Mitch on there as well would be hilarious.
Adam: Cowboys. Ahhhhhhh. I hate this pick. The local Dallas radio actually is more concerned about this game than I anticipated, and The Biscuit did have a 300 yard performance last Thursday... but I just don’t see the Bears being able to stop the Dallas offense more than our own offense can stay on the field.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I live in a world where I have more faith in a bad Falcons team that required ritual sacrifice of the young than a Panthers team that has been in free fall for weeks resulting in Riverboat Ron losing his job. Some say it's the result of the Black Cat from the Meadowlands... can't rule it out.
Adam: Falcons. I am not sure what to make of the Panthers. They have, arguably, the best running back in the league, and really played a fine open to the season, but have been down lately. And now just fired their coach mid-season, so this team could rise up and destroy or throw in the towel.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (+5.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Buffalo's got a defense that could (emphasis: "could") contain Lamar Jackson and company. Unfortunately I'm not sure Josh Allen can go point for point with him even with some stops.
Adam: Ravens. The Bills are certainly a solid team and have been playing very well, but the Ravens will be the AFC champs this year. I don’t see how anyone can slow them down. L-Jack for MVP!
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-8.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Cincy's got all the momentum after freeing themselves from the Tournament of the Winless I was hoping to run, while the Browns couldn't walk the walk after talking the talk leading up to the game in Pittsburgh. Taking the points.
Adam: Bengals. Congrats to the Bengals on win #1 in Week... ummm... 13! OK, thanks for playing. I’ll give you a gold star and hope you show up with some life for the Battle of Ohio.
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
Lucas: Texans. Prepare to sense a theme. Denver is bad and Houston just picked up a signature win; I'll lay double digits here.
Adam: Texans. Not too sure here, just a gut pick. Houston is 8-4 but I think has played better than that. Denver is also a team that has had some downs this year, but still rolling that gut here.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13.5)
Lucas: Vikings. David Blough acquitted himself quite well in his first career start, but it wasn't quite enough against a mediocre Bears team. Going up against a much better team means Kirk Cousins should have relatively easy pickings.
Adam: Lions. Once you start getting up into the 10 point range, I start to lean towards taking the points; once you get past about 12 points it like a no brainer in most cases. The Lions are not a bad team. They could easily have another two to four wins if a few bounces go their way. I’ll take the points here even on the road against a superior team.
Lucas note: I mean... offensively they're okay, but they're an absolute mess on defense (25th in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, primarily through the air). But their Pythagorean Win Percentage (basically, based on your points scored/allowed, what should your record be) is at roughly 5-7, so yeah, there's your two wins.
Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Lucas: Packers. Washington has been absolutely awful, and if a good but not great Green Bay team can own a bad Giants team on the road in the snow, they can own a worse Skins team at home.
Adam: Redskins. Similar argument as the Lions/Vikes game, but this one I actually almost took the Packers. As opposed to the earlier game, the Packers are better than the Vikes and the Skins are weaker than the Lions. But I'm still playing the odds.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Don't really care about this game; just going to take the couple points and move on.
Adam: Buccaneers. Giving the edge to the home team; that’s about it. Now go eat some crab.
Lucas note: Can I just note that we both, independently of each other, basically couldn't give two craps about this game? That's awesome. As you were.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-5.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Screw this crapshoot at the bottom of the AFC East, but I honestly have more faith in the Dolphins right now.
Adam: Jets. Let’s hope that Darnold doesn’t see any ghosts this week. With their loss to the Bengals last week, the Jets have become the only team to ever lose to 2 teams in the same year that started 0-7. But let's all remember how the Jets beat the Cowgirls. Jim, do you remember?
Lucas note: ...okay, I said I wasn't going to share the meme but now I have to.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Lucas: Saints. Tough game with an essentially pick 'em line when you factor in home field. It's that factor that has me leaning Saints.
Adam: Saints. Joe sent us a note on Tuesday that he made his picks and found this game to be very difficult to pick. So as not to reveal my pick, I simply told Joe this was an easy selection for me. So Joe, I’ll let you in on a little secret... never bet against Brees at home. He is a different animal at home versus on the road. Career wins 87-73 home, completion percentage 68.47-66.47 home, yards 39949-36279 home, and touchdowns 311-221 home, with the same number of starts for each.
Lucas note: The stats don't lie. But what also doesn't lie is that, at least as of September 2018, Brees has a better winning percentage against the spread... outdoors. Not sure if the numbers still hold, but I wanted to throw that little wrinkle out there.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. BAH GAWD, THAT'S GARDNER MINSHEW'S MUSIC!
Lucas note: I actually don't have music for this one... you know what? Adam's got it covered.
Adam: Jaguars. Cue the 70s Porn music: bom chica wowowa. The mustachio man is back!
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Titans. Oakland's in a freefall, and I only need to lay a field goal on a pretty good Titans team? Where do I sign?
Adam: Titans. Eh, don’t care about this game. Henry has been playing well, I’ll go with that.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I refuse to count out Touchdown Tom until he fully falls off a cliff. And unfortunately, that means the fine folks in Columbia, Missouri might need some zen again.
Adam: Chiefs. Scary stat I saw: apparently Brady’s numbers this year are worse than The Biscuit's. Wait, does that make The Biscuit the GOAT?! *shakes head* Snap out of it... Brady is on the decline and Froggy man (ribbit) will rule the day.
Lucas note: For reference, Trubisky has been more accurate (63.7%-61.1%) in 100 fewer passes (missing effectively a couple games will do that) with Brady having five more touchdowns and one fewer pick in those extra attempts. But Brady's net yards per attempt are fairly significantly better (6.7 for Brady, 6.1 for Mitch; adjusting for touchdowns, picks, and sacks, Brady's at 6.33, Mitch at 5.13.) Read into that what you will.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Because only one Cardinal football team can be good right now, and honestly, I'm fine with the one that is. Especially when I get to bring back the penny whistle. Go wreck Delaware Valley.
Adam: Cardinals. Baby Yoda has decided to take up football it seems. Oh wait, that's just Kyler behind center.Watching @NCC_Athletics upset Mount Union on Saturday was awesome. You know what’s better?— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) December 3, 2019
Watching NCC upset Mount Union to the Titanic theme!#WeAreNC #d3fb pic.twitter.com/a1qihKGbEb
Sunday Night
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. HOW DO I ONLY NEED TO LAY ONE AND A HALF?! COME ON!!
Adam: Seahawks. Seattle is rolling right now and looks much the best. I know these two teams played a close one a few weeks ago and that was in Seattle, but I just don’t see that happening again.
Monday Night
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Lucas: Giants. I don't exactly have a ton of faith in the Giants, but I don't trust the Iggles right now either, given that no one seems to want to win this division.
Adam: Giants. A little bit of a disappointing start to December’s MNF here. Let’s see how
Records So Far
Lucas: 94-98 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 103-89 (10-6 last week)
Joe: 88-106 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 93-99 (8-8 last week)
Aiden: 81-111 (7-9 last week)
Jim: 94-98 (8-8 last week)
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