Week 1 saw a lot of balance, but it also brought a situation that did not occur a single time last season: Adam has a lead. He took three of our five disputed games last week to tie for the early group lead, but I'm right on his heels. Even our last place person in Aiden is only three games out a week in, though that was with getting a couple hero picks to go his way.
Speaking of hero picks, five of our six pickers put in for one in the opening week, with four of us getting at least one right. In total, we went 5-2 on hero picks last week while going ahead of our historical average on consensus picks, nailing two of three. You can view a full breakdown of how we picked in relation to each other here.
As we roll into our second week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Does The Bakery have any Thursday night specials? Because they really should.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. I have zero faith in a Giants team that just got taken apart by the Cowboys and couldn't do much offensively against them. Against a good Bills defense? Good luck, guys.
Adam: Giants. Do you go with a team that should have had no business winning last week when they went into half having given up the ball on turnovers four times, or the team that got lambasted? I’ll give Eli one more ride before he is set out to pasture.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Tough choice, but I was higher on the Niners coming into the year than I was on the Bengals, and one game isn't enough to make me change my mind.
Adam: Bengals. Tough call here. The 49ers took care of business last week, but Cincy held on strong in Seattle and almost beat them. It’s a close one, but I’ll lay the point and a half and hope I cover.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (+5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Okay, maybe I was wrong about Dak. I mean, I still think top 15 quarterback in the league is his ceiling, but having Zeke helps a ton, and the team around him is good. They roll in Landover.
Adam: Redskins. An easy game for the Cowgirls to overlook, and one where we will see AP back on the field after his first ever healthy scratch last week. I’m going bold here: Skins cover and eeeekkk... dare I say it? Win straight up! Skins 24-23.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Lucas: Chargers.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm as giddy as Aaron Rodgers was when he said he has a defense finally. Figure they can slow down a pretty good Minnesota offense, and if Rodgers is struggling, Green Bay has a weapon in the mantle passed down from Marquette King, Pat McAfee, and the original bearer of the title in Mike Scifres: J.K. Scott, Champion Punter of the Universe.
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) September 6, 2019Adam: Packers. At Lambeau, it's tough to see how the Pack don’t win this game. I don’t care what the Vikings did last week. And as A-A-Ron said last Thursday night, ”Looks like we have a D now.” Holding my Bears to three points, I would say that’s a fair assessment.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. I'm still not convinced about the Titans, and the Colts were better than advertised in Week 1. I don't want to overreact too much to one game, so I'll take the points here.
Adam: Colts. I like this as a surprise game. The Titans rolled over the Browns last week in the 2nd half and Indy made it a fun finish with the Chargers last week. Even with Luck gone I don’t see how Indy doesn’t win by at least five.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+18.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Yeah, the Dolphins are a dumpster fire. But this is a ton of points in a place where the Brady-Belichick Pats have historically struggled with the largest line I've seen since the Peyton Manning Broncos were four touchdown favorites over Jacksonville. Taking the points and running.
Adam: Patriots. I know it goes against something I have said all the time: when the line is over ten, take the points. But I would like to have a better bet of over/under on how long Brady is in the game before his back-up comes in. I’m going half time he gets pulled.
Lucas note: Ehh... I'll take the over. End of the third, with a backdoor cover.
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. This is a gross overreaction to Week 1. Is Lamar Jackson that good? I don't know! Do you? And can we really rule out a Kyler Murray backdoor cover? Taking these points too.
Adam: Cardinals. So I like what I saw from both of these QBs. It took Kyler a half to find it, but he still came back and made it a game. It's close, but I’ll take the points. I expect Jackson to regress a little after his outstanding running back showing... what, he’s a QB? Ok, check that; his outstanding quarterback showing...
Lucas note: One of my favorite stats from last week: Lamar Jackson, a supposed run first QB, had six rushing yards in the win over Miami.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I got a text from Adam saying "Holy lines Batman" on Tuesday afternoon, I think more so referring to the two previous games. But this one counts too. How is a Steelers team that just got undressed in primetime in front of a national audience this big a favorite against a Seattle team that just gutted out a win? I don't know if it's an overreaction to the Bengals maybe being better than people expected?
Adam: Seahawks. I bet Pittsburgh is happy they didn’t trade AB to their rivals... ohhhh.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Yeah, Houston really impressed on Monday night (except for their defense on the final play from scrimmage, but that's neither here nor there). But against a good defense, Deshaun Watson might get killed. Taking the points until Laremy Tunsil and company start protecting him.
Adam:
Lucas note:
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+9.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I've been zealous in taking double digit points. This... is not one of those games. Monday was kind of Oakland's Super Bowl this year, and they're due for a letdown against one of the elites.
Adam: Chiefs. This is going to be a defensive battle... did I just say that? Let's look at this objectively: if the Raiders can put up 24 points against arguably a top 5 defense, then there is no reason they cannot score on the Chiefs. But KC’s offense will pound Oakland. So this is a defensive battle... whose defense doesn’t suck as bad. I’m tipping my cap to KC.
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos (+1.5)
Lucas: Bears. I wanted to take the Broncos as late as Monday afternoon because the Broncos are like 25-1 at home in September in the last few years and I'm sure Vic Fangio has the perfect game plan in mind to shut down Trubisky and company for a second consecutive week (and really, we can even go as far back as last December). But the Broncos laid an egg against the Raiders, I can't get that out of my mind, and I'd have to think Matt Nagy will have learned and adjusted for Week 2.
Adam: Bears. If the Raiders can put up 24, so can the Bears. And I assure you that defense is not giving up much to Flacco.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Lucas: Saints. Because if there's ever a case for the NFL to gift a win to a team... this would be it.
Adam: Rams. This will arguably be the best game of the weekend. I am going to give the slight edge to the home team. Plain and simple.
Sunday Night
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Lucas: Eagles. To quote the great UrinatingTree, "Only a brick wall can stop you. Its name is the Eagles."
Adam: Falcons. I just don’t see how the Falcons stay looking as bad as they were in the first half and part of the second half against Minnesota. Philly also showed it can be beaten going down early to the Skins.
Monday Night
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Browns. I'm not ready to step away from the Browns hype after one week. Especially not when they're going up against a maybe not that good Jets team with a head coach who refuses to take responsibility for their Week 1 loss.
Adam: Browns. Let's see if Mayfield and his wife can figure out how to start that blender.
Records Last Week
Lucas: 8-8
Adam: 9-7
Joe: 9-7
Geoffrey: 8-8
Aiden: 6-10
Jim: 8-8
No comments:
Post a Comment