2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Epilogue

It's Black Monday in the NFL as numerous head coaches have been handed their walking papers and a dozen teams get to continue their quest for a Super Bowl title. And with the NFL season complete, so is the 2018 Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.

In the final week, I took five of seven games from Adam, but I'd already clinched the column title. It was the overall group title that was still in doubt. I didn't go through the exact number of disputed games between me and our group leader, but Adam did. I had eight disputed games with Jen, our group leader through Week 16. Down seven, I needed to sweep the week. I got everything, save one: Green Bay got shut out at home by Detroit, and that gave Jen, apparently now referred to as the football goddess, the group victory. See the standings after the jump.

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

And so it all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. And for the first time in a couple months, stability at the very top of the standings.

Jen continues to be red hot with her... unorthodox picking methodologies, extending her group lead to seven. To quote Adam:

This is a fickle game; one which even the one with the least knowledge may best us all.

You can view the group standings here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on ESPN than he should. Correct group standings, in addition to how we've all picked in relation to each other, can be seen here.

On a micro level, I took three of five disputed games from Adam last week, not that I needed the extra game as I clinched the column title already. But for Week 17, I wanted to open the forum to the remainder of the coalition, so I invited everyone to send in their picks ahead of time this week. Adam and I were able to recruit our wives this week, while Geoffrey Clark also agreed to send in his picks.

To the group, thank you all for a good season, and good luck! With five people, it's easier to say where there's agreement, and amazingly, we found common ground on two of them. Let's get to the picks!

Game Notes: (MBK) Illinois College @ North Central College (12/22/18)

Final Score
NCC 67, Illinois College 63

Game Summary
This one didn't start all that auspiciously as the Cardinals (10-1) lost the opening tip, but did get the opening bucket about a minute in. The Blueboys (3-9), meanwhile, answered back quickly and turned the game into quite the back and forth affair. Illinois College took control fairly quickly though, pushing their lead as high as six late in the half before the Cardinals reasserted control with a 15-5 run to close the half leading 35-31. Early in the second half it looked like the Cardinals were going to assert dominance and pull away as they managed to push the lead as high as seven, but a 12-2 Blueboy run turned it back into a dogfight. The Cardinals answered that with a 7-0 run of their own capped by a Jack Bronec dunk, and while IC managed to come back and tie it, the Cardinals managed to regain the lead pretty quickly and were up as many as nine with about eight minutes to go. But again, the Blueboys refused to go quietly, getting a huge layup off a steal to pull within two with just under a minute to go. Another turnover gave the Blueboys a chance to tie or take the lead, but Blaise Meredith came up with the block of his life on a would-be tying layup and Matt Cappelletti came up with the rebound and was fouled in the process. He missed the front end of a one-and-one, but somehow got his own rebound, was fouled again, and this time iced the game away.

Key Players

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 9-16 FG (1-4 3PT), 5-6 FT; 24 pts, 6 reb (2 off), 5 ast, 2 stl. After joining the 1,000 Point Club a week prior at Wheaton, Connor has continued to play well, and really did so here. He was able to get into the paint for his favored fadeaway jumper, while also hitting from midrange and the one time from deep, plus distributing the ball. He also played some solid defense as now the undisputed leader of the team. A solid two-way performance helped key a win here.
• Jack Bronec (NCC): 3-3 FG, 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 4 reb (2 off), 1 blk, 1 stl. With no true elite big this season, Bronec has stepped into a starting spot, but his role hasn't changed much. He's logging more minutes a year than he did his first three, but he's still really only counted on for playing solid interior defense, getting some rebounds, and making one or two plays at the offensive end. He did that and more yesterday with a perfect shooting night, including a thunderous dunk that I gave a little more oomph on the call for just because I didn't expect it.
• Kane Wildermuth (IC): 6-7 FG; 12 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Wildermuth played a few games for the Cardinals last season and has played fairly well getting regular minutes for the Blueboys this season. He had a good offensive game in this one, but was in serious foul trouble, seeing just ten first half minutes with three fouls, and played sparingly in the second half due to said trouble before fouling out late. All in all though, it was a good return to Naperville for the senior.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded IC 35-26. I already brought up the no true center thing for North Central, but the Cardinals are still outrebounding opponents by five a game so far this season. It helped especially in this one with a hot shooting Blueboys team, as 13 of the Cardinal boards came on the offensive glass, leading to 21 second chances points; Illinois College, by contrast, had nine.
• IC: 9-24 3PT (37.5%). That number is about on par for the season for the Blueboys, although maybe a tad lower. But in the first half they went 7-16 from beyond the arc, and that heat check is what had them in control for a large chunk of the opening 20 minutes. Even though they cooled off in the second half, their deep shooting kept them in the game longer than I'd anticipated going in, and they deserve credit for going toe-to-toe with a solid Cardinal team.

Final Thoughts

This was a fun one, as it marked the return of former North Central assistant coach Steve Schweer to Gregory Arena. Schweer was Raridon's top lieutenant for the past two seasons, and Illinois College gave him his first shot as a head coach. It was good to see him again, and it's clear he knew how to game plan for this Cardinal team. It helped, again, that his guys shot extremely well in this game. They gave the Cardinals fits.

For North Central, this was kind of an ugly game, but you have to be able to win the ugly ones, and they did here with that key final sequence. The win gives the Cardinals ten for the year so far as they closed out the home portion of their 2018 schedule on the right foot. North Central gets a break for Christmas for a couple days, and then they're off to Las Vegas for the D3Hoops.com Classic. This will be their last non-conference tuneup before it's back to the Gauntlet.

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

Just two weeks remain in the NFL season as the coalition nears the end of its work for the year, and... hold on, I should let Adam introduce this week's post with his poignant text from Sunday.

Dear god we all need to be scared. Jen is 4pts up on everyone.

Adam won a week for the first time in a long time, grabbing six of our eight disputed games as regression to the mean hit me hard. That left an opening at the top, which Jen roared into as she has her first lead of the season. Considering that she knows next to nothing about football and as far as I know has just been picking at absolute random for 15 weeks... yeah, we definitely need to be scared.

You can view the standings with confirmation of Jen being four games up on the nearest competitor here, bearing in mind that a picking error on ESPN gave Adam one more point than he should have. You can view the correct standings as well as how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

Adam's win has him, at least theoretically, within striking distance of me with two weeks to play, though it would take weeks like this past one for him to vault past me. This week, we disagree on just five games out of 16. This means that I have clinched the column title over Adam (even year magic!), though the group championship is still up for grabs.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, we wish you a Merry Christmas! Let's get to the picks!

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

We're coming down the home stretch of the 2018 NFL season, and the coalition continues its quest to pick games against the spread!

Once again there's a shakeup at the top of the standings as I've somehow made my way back to sole possession of first place. But it's a tenuous two game lead with Kristen looming within striking distance, and her cousin Jen just one game back of her. The lesson here, as always: you don't need to know anything about football to succeed at this contest.

That effort to pull into the lead included me taking four of five disputed games from Adam last week, but he's really rebounded since that two win week about a month ago. He's still in last place, but the gap between him and sixth place has gotten significantly smaller. You can view the full, accurate standings (there was an early picking error on ESPN) as well as how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games out of 16. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Aurora University @ North Central College (12/12/18)

Final Score
NCC 83, Aurora 73

Game Summary
Things did not start great in this one as the Spartans (2-4) opened the game on an absurd 11-0 run. The Cardinals (7-1) finally broke the ice about four minutes in, but the Spartans kept up their attack and that 11 point advantage. But bit by bit, the Cardinals started eating into that deficit, eventually using a 15-3 run to take the lead. They never relinquished it from that point on, pulling ahead by as many as seven before settling into intermission with a 38-33 advantage, and about two and a half minutes into the second half pushing it to double digits on a Blaise Meredith steal and breakaway dunk. The Spartans would get no closer than seven the rest of the way, leading by as many as 17 before garbage time when both teams largely emptied their benches.

Key Players

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 6-11 FG (0-1 3PT), 11-12 FT; 23 pts, 9 reb (3 off), 4 ast, 2 stl. Connor will probably have to wait until Saturday to join the 1,000 point club, as he came eight points short tonight, but was pretty good in this one. He more so did little things in the first half, notching six of his points and eight rebounds then before getting to the rack and the line in the second half.
• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 5-10 FG (2-3 3PT), 8-8 FT; 20 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 1 ast, 3 stl. Blaise was the dominant force in the first half for the Cardinals, especially during the comeback. He scored 11 of his 20 in the first half and was phenomenal at the line, and continued his strong game in the second half with the aforementioned breakaway dunk. He also had a beautiful tip-in off an inbounds pass in this one.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 4-11 FG (1-4 3PT), 2-2 FT; 11 pts, 13 reb (7 off), 3 ast. Ho hum, another double-double. Cap's outside shot continues to have its issues, though the fact that he has confidence to still take them is encouraging. Also encouraging is that he's still attacking the basket and getting his points elsewhere. In a game where North Central, amazingly enough, had a size advantage, he made the most of it tonight.

Key Stats

• NCC: 24-26 FT (92.3%). This was an outstanding showing at the line that included a pair of technical free throws (see more on that below), but my dad via text compared it to a pitcher throwing a perfect game. The Cardinals hit their first 22 shots from the line before Aiden Chang "blew [it] with two outs in the (sic) 8th." Per North Park's Gregory Sager, the D-III record is held by Albany, who went 28-28 from the line in a game against Potsdam State back in 1994.
• AUR: 27-54 FG, 7-14 3PT (50.0%). Four nights after getting lit up by North Park, there are still some concerns on defense for this North Central team. The Spartans shot well, especially early on to build that lead before seemingly coming back down to earth as the game went on. I say seemingly because they topped 50 percent in the second half. This wasn't just hitting threes, they also got to the basket too easily in many cases. It's a good showing for Aurora against what's supposed to be a good defensive team, though to be fair the Cardinals did make a number of nice defensive stops in this one.

Final Thoughts

I hate to address officiating, especially after a win, but I don't think either coach was particularly pleased after this one. Both Todd Raridon and Aurora's Lance Robinson were in officials' ears all night, pleading for calls, which in and of itself isn't unusual, but both guys had complaints, and I'd say both were valid. Robinson though drew a technical foul in the second half following a loose ball situation where the Cardinals recovered and called timeout. Robinson, from the far end of the floor, didn't think they had possession, and dropped an F-bomb in his complaint to the official, earning himself the T, which he questioned as it was called even though dropping an F-bomb to an official will earn you the tech most of the time.

Game-wise, it was good to see North Central not lose composure after falling behind by so much so early, working their way back in with a balanced attack and making enough stops even though the scoring was a little high for probably a lot of people's tastes. But they followed up a tough loss with a nice home win to cap off a 3-1 homestand, which you take every time.

It gets tough this weekend though as the Cardinals head up to Wheaton to take on the Thunder. Wheaton is a little hard to figure out; they've lost some games they shouldn't have, then turn around and have Aston Francis do Aston Francis things like tonight when he dropped a career-high 54 in a win over UW-Platteville. North Central, needless to say, will need to keep him in check if they want to continue the win streak they have over the Thunder, especially in a tough King Arena.

Game Notes: (MBK) North Park University @ North Central College (12/8/18)

Final Score
NPU 95, NCC 88

Game Summary
The Cardinals (6-1, 2-1) got off to their usual immediate good start, winning the tip and scoring on the opening possession. But the Vikings (3-7, 2-1) recovered, hitting a three in response and thus setting off a half full of lead changes. Each team led by as many as five at one point early on before settling into a heavyweight bout of trading blows, with North Park getting a 33-32 halftime lead on a buzzer beater. The close game continued in the second half, with North Park in control early but fending off a Cardinal group right on their heels. The Cardinals actually did take a 57-54 lead with about ten and a half to go, but that was the high water mark for the half, as North Park slowly started to regain control and pull away. The Cardinals did make it interesting in the final minute, pulling within four thanks to some threes, but North Park was phenomenal at the line to put it out of reach.

Key Players

• Toby Marek (NPU): 8-11 FG (1-1 3PT), 12-14 FT; 29 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 1 blk. Marek was just red hot in this one, but it was his ability to get to the line in the second half that really helped put the game out of reach. 22 of Marek's points came in the second stanza, including an 11-12 performance at the stripe.
• Kindrel Morris (NPU): 3-7 FG (0-2 3PT), 9-12 FT; 15 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 3 ast. Morris had a more understated impact, but was no less of a reason why the Vikings pulled the road upset. He scored all 15 of his points after halftime, going perfect from the floor and getting all his trips to the line in then. He did have four turnovers, but only one came after halftime.
• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 5-11 FG (0-2 3PT), 12-13 FT; 22 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 1 blk, 2 stl. Blaise had himself a pretty good night on the whole, especially offensively as he was able to get to the basket and thus the line almost at will. He did face some late foul trouble as his last two foul calls were questionable, and he could have gotten T'd up, but wasn't. Also not helping his cause was one of his misses, when he had a clear shot to the rack and went up for a dunk, but blew it.

Key Stats

• NCC: 7-23 3PT (30.4%). I think this number is a bit of an improvement, but on a night where your opponent just can't miss, you have to shoot a little better than this. Mike Pollack bumped this up some with a few late triples, so looking at a 2-11 first half really tells the tale to some degree. I've been saying for weeks that the shots will start to fall... but they need to start to fall soon. 
• NPU: 29-49 FG (59.2%), 8-14 3PT (57.1%), 29-34 FT (85.3%). I had to include their entire shooting line, because this is ridiculous. The Vikings just couldn't miss tonight. They did get quite a few easy layups as part of their 62 point second half, but they also got to the line and went 4-7 from deep in each half. You're going to be almost impossible to beat on a night like that. Tip the cap.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• MIL 77 (5-3, 1-2). @ CRL 75 (2-6, 0-3) 
• @ AUG 67 (7-1, 2-0), IWU 60 (7-2, 1-2)
• ELM 95 (4-3, 2-0), @ CAR 79 (4-5, 1-2)
• Bye: @ WHE 92 (7-2, 1-1), Olivet 81

Final Thoughts

Like the women's game, this one hurts. The Cardinals came into the night technically in first place by half a game by virtue of Augie having had the bye this past week and Elmhurst having had it a week ago. Instead, they couldn't take care of business at home against the team picked to finish last in the CCIW. To be fair, part of me looked at this game going in not knowing how it would go; this North Park team knocked off Wheaton at home last Saturday. But I didn't expect this.

A Cardinal defense that was allowing under 60 points a game for the year got lit up, especially in the second half. Some of this was North Park just hitting some ridiculous shots, and you have to tip your cap. But this is also an alarming first loss, especially with some tough games coming up. Hopefully this is just a hiccup, as the Cardinals welcome in non-conference rival Aurora on Wednesday night before wrapping up the December portion of CCIW play with a trip to Wheaton a week from tonight.

Game Notes: (WBK) North Park University @ North Central College (12/8/18)

Final Score
NPU 83, NCC 82 (OT)

Game Summary
This was a tough one as the Cardinals (2-5, 1-2) and Vikings (5-4, 2-1) traded leads in the early going, with North Park taking a 19-17 lead after one. North Central took a brief 20-19 lead early in the second quarter, but then it was all Vikings as they pushed their lead gradually up to eight, with a 39-31 advantage going into the locker room. The Cardinals fought back a couple times in the third quarter, drawing back within two three separate times in the period only to see the Vikings push the lead back, as they took a 65-56 lead into the final frame. But then the Cardinals made their push: a 10-0 run that spanned the first four minutes of the fourth, giving them the lead, and their defense held the Vikings without a basket until more than five minutes in. But still, the Vikings seemed poised to win in regulation, up six with 1:25 to play, but a three and layup sandwiching a defensive stop made it a one point game with just 23 seconds to go. The Vikings split a pair of free throws, and Lyndsay Brennan hit a layup to tie, and the Vikings missed a couple looks to avoid the extra session. North Central was in pretty good shape a couple minutes in despite trading leads, going up four with a minute and a half to play, but the Vikings closed it out with five straight free throws, the fifth coming after North Central missed a go-ahead three, and Tyonne Howard missed a desperation heave at the final buzzer.

Key Players

• Lauryn Alba Garner (NPU): 6-13 FG (2-3 3PT), 3-5 FT; 17 pts, 5 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 4 stl. I didn't realize Alba Garner had the impact she did on the defensive side until I looked at the final box score, but what really stood out was her offensive game. Her game-high 17 seemed like more given the end of the third quarter, when she scored North Park's final six points on an old fashioned three point play and a three pointer to push the Viking lead to nine. Her fourth quarter wasn't quite as good, as those two missed free throws were what allowed North Central to tie the game.
• Natali Dimitrova (NCC): 6-13 FG (0-2 3PT), 14-17 FT; 26 pts, 10 reb (6 off), 2 ast, 2 blk, 1 stl. While the result was disappointing, tonight was definitely a coming out party for Natali Dimitrova. She shattered her old career high of 17 points by dominating down low, especially in the second half when she scored 16 of her points, plus another five in overtime before controversially fouling out. I think the best sign is in her free throw numbers; a year after really struggling at the stripe, it's apparent she worked on that in the offseason, and it showed with a stellar performance.
• Tyonne Howard (NCC): 6-8 FG, 5-8 FT; 17 pts, 6 reb (3 off), 7 ast, 2 stl. I've touched on Tyonne Howard in every game so far, but I think deservedly so. She's been such a good distributor of the ball in each of the first three home games as well as on the road, and she did a good job with her shots tonight. I think more impressive was, at 5'4", she was going right into traffic and stealing offensive rebounds to keep possessions alive. The turnover numbers are still not great (6 tonight), but when she's notching more assists than turnovers and wreaking some havoc on defense, you'll take the hiccups.

Key Stats

• NCC: 5-20 3PT (25.0%). I had a hard time picking out a stat for North Central. The rebounding was about even (44-40 North Park), North Central turned it over a couple more times (15 to 13), and the Cardinals shot all right as a whole. The three point shooting wasn't great though. They were okay in the first half, then went away a bit as the game went on, but missed five of their six attempts after halftime. This number should be a little higher, and could have swung the game. Alas.
• NPU: 24-40 FT (60.0%). I already touched on Lauryn Alba Garner's two late misses, but this isn't just on her. 60 percent isn't good; that's as big a reason as any the Cardinals stayed in this game. Fortunately for the Vikings, they went 8-12 at the line in the extra session, which was just enough.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ CRL 70 (4-5, 1-1), MIL 67 (2-6, 1-2)
• IWU 83 (8-2, 3-0), @ AUG 76 (4-5, 1-2)
• @ CAR 92 (4-3, 1-2), ELM 62 (3-5, 0-2)
• Bye: UW-Oshkosh 57, @ WHE 48 (5-3, 2-0)

Final Thoughts

All told, this one hurts. The Cardinals didn't play great at times, but they stayed in this ballgame unlike the Millikin contest last week and thus didn't need as furious a comeback. But they did a great job to force the extra session. I do question the decision making on their second to last possession, having the ball with about ten seconds left, only to force a contested three rather than attack the basket. Of course, had Howard's heave fallen we may not be talking about this. But really, I have to give credit to the Vikings. They played well, and they earned the victory and the right to storm the court after the final buzzer.

This is a tough loss that drops the Cardinals into a lower pack in the conference. It's still early, but the schedule doesn't get any easier. They head north to take on Wisconsin-Stevens Point on Tuesday before heading to the dreaded King Arena for a date with Wheaton on Saturday.

2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Fast Forward

We interrupt preparations for the 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs with a blast from the past. So... remember when I said I was cancelling the Death to the BCS Playoffs? I lied.

In early October, I was making my occasional rounds on WhatIfSports to check to see if teams were getting updated. And finally... the 2017 college football teams were there.

This has me encouraged for the upcoming 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs, but while we wait for that, I wanted to make sure I had some content for the interim. And since the 2017 teams are on there... let's go back in time and resolve the 2017 postseason.

The link above takes you to my post about the 2017 bracket and my rationales for picking who I did, so I'm not going to go too much into the field. But I will go through the process of simulating the playoffs. Normally I go on a week by week basis, but since this should have been played months ago I am simulating the entire postseason in one go.

The simulation process, however, is going to remain largely the same. Higher seeds get home field advantage through the first three rounds, with the title game being played in Pasadena. Weather conditions from the specified game times and dates will be taken into account. In the past, I've used Don Best's handicapping website for making sure injured players aren't in these playoff games, but seeing as we're well past that point his site is useless this season. I will likely just go with the default lineups for this postseason, but I'll try to cross check against bowl game box scores to make sure no one who was out for the year ends up impacting the postseason.

All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com, now that they've finally uploaded this year's teams. So, without any further delay, let's start the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

We interrupt your series of collegiate athletics posts, including the upcoming 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs (and upcoming fast forward through the 2017 Death to the BCS Playoffs) to bring you the latest from the coalition!

Last week was less than ideal for much of the coalition, but once again there was upheaval at the top of the standings. Kristen is once again alone in first place, but just a game apiece separates each of the top four people going into the three-quarter turn. Please note that the ESPN standings give Adam one more point than he should due to an early season picking error. Though if it were up to me, I'd give him that point, A, because he needs all the help he can get, but also B, I thought it was a nice touch on his Monday night pick.

Speaking of Adam, he had another decent week, but I still took five of our nine disputed picks from last week. It was a week that ranged from mediocre to awful, especially in Aiden's case as he didn't enter any picks this week. Officially, it counts as a winless week, but it doesn't go down in the record books as the worst week in contest history since he didn't actually pick the teams. Hopefully he can get those in in time this week.

Kicking off the fourth quarter of the 2018 campaign, Adam and I disagree on just five games out of 16. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Carroll University @ North Central College (12/5/18)

Final Score
NCC 61, Carroll 47

Game Summary
This was kind of a weird game, especially early on. The Cardinals (6-0, 2-0) took a couple minutes to open the scoring, leading 6-0 on a pair of threes, but the Pioneers (2-5, 0-2) responded with the next eight, eventually leading to an 8-8 tie ten minutes into the game. Eventually the teams found their rhythm, with the Pioneers gaining control thanks to early Cardinal foul trouble. The Pios led by seven with about two and a half to go in the first half, but the Cardinals managed to cut it to four at 26-22 by the break. Carroll started the second half strong, pushing the lead to eight just a couple minutes in, but the Cardinals began chipping away, using an extended 9-0 run to grab the lead back. It switched hands a few times midway through the half, but North Central took a 41-40 lead on a Matt Cappelletti free throw with about eight minutes to go and never looked back. Carroll got it back within one a couple times, but the Cardinals put the game out of reach with a few threes.

Key Players

• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 6-10 FG (2-6 3PT), 5-8 FT; 19 pts, 5 ast. The fact that Blaise did not manage a single rebound tonight was a little shocking, but his offensive game was much needed on a night when Connor Raridon did almost nothing (see more below). His 19 points was a career high, and the five assists were key as well.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 2-7 FG (0-4 3PT), 7-9 FT; 11 pts, 11 reb (1 off), 1 stl. On a night where not a lot of shots were taken due to the sheer number of fouls and thus free throws, rebounds were at a premium, and Cap dominated the glass, notching over 20 percent of the game's available boards. He continues to struggle from deep, but got to the rim and to the line, making the most of those opportunities.
• Aiden Chang (NCC): 4-6 FG (2-3 3PT); 10 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl. The stat line doesn't seem like much, but Aiden made some big plays when the Cardinals needed them. All ten of his points came in the second half, but two big moments stand out to me. He hit a huge three to give North Central a 34-32 lead, then immediately forced a sloppy turnover and took it the other way for a layup, forcing a Carroll timeout. Then, with about three and a half minutes to go, he hit his second three in the midst of a 10-0 run that put the game out of reach.

Key Stats

• NCC: 8-21 3PT (38.1%). This is a number more in line with what you'd hope for from this team after some early season struggles. The best sign was that the Cardinals went 5-11 from deep in the second half, and it was the three ball that put the game out of reach. It's hopefully a sign that the Cardinals are coming out of their funk, and when Cap starts hitting his threes... look out.
• Carroll: 26 fouls. I don't want to harp too much on the officiating, especially after a win, but this crew was inconsistent at best. At one point in the first half, North Central had ten fouls to Carroll's four. After that point, North Central would commit ten more to Carroll's 22. Some of that I'm sure was things evening out, but I also think North Central adjusted fairly well as the game went on.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• WHE 90 (6-2, 1-1), @ IWU 88 (7-1, 1-1)
• @ CAR 78 (4-4, 1-1), NPU 54 (2-7, 1-1)
• ELM 74 (3-3, 1-0), @ MIL 62 (4-3, 0-2) 
• Bye: AUG 78 (6-1, 1-0), @ MacMurray 54
• WBK: NCC 69 (2-4, 1-1), @ AUG 58 (4-4, 1-1)

Final Thoughts

If you had told me before the game that Connor Raridon, a guy who came into tonight with 947 career points would be held to just two field goal attempts and four points, I'd have first thought you were crazy, then figured North Central wouldn't win the game. Raridon was in foul trouble, picking up two about eight minutes into the first half, leading to him riding the bench until intermission, and fairly quickly getting up to four in the second half. Even when he was in though, Carroll played him very well defensively, not giving him looks at his usual turnaround jumpers. This jeopardizes his shot at reaching the 1,000 Point Club at home, barring a monster game or two out of him coming up.

Regardless, you have to find a way to win games like this, and North Central has continued to do so. They really haven't put together much of a complete game yet other than the win over Alma. But they're unbeaten and in first place in the CCIW thanks to Augie getting a bye and Aston Francis doing Aston Francis things. The schedule remains somewhat favorable with a home date against North Park on the horizon, though the Vikings did just beat Wheaton four days ago.

2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Official Bracket

I have a few recurring features every year on Confessions of a Sportscaster. My favorite probably far and away is the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but this one has to be second on the list. And I apologize in advance, because this post will be long.

I never got into college football growing up, partially because my dad wasn't into it, but there was also the corrupt system of the BCS that played a role. While this book is somewhat out of date, I highly recommend reading it if you haven't; it's extremely enlightening about the extreme flaws with the old system, most exemplified in the LSU-Alabama title game that completely invalidated the 2011 regular season.

Wetzel, Peter, and Passan also built out an alternative playoff format that I love and have used every year since. It's had to be revised since the death of the WAC, but the revision was minor. The authors call for a 16 team playoff that includes every conference champion, plus at large teams to fill out the field. They recommend a selection committee to build the field, but in the absence of one, I've elected to fill the field every year myself.

Photo by Grant Halverson (Getty Images)

To help aid in my quest with picking the at large teams and seeding the bracket, I use a number of metrics to help in my decision. This year I didn't chronicle the weekly changes to these metrics via blog post, but I did keep track of results on a weekly basis. I use three different sets of Playoff Points based off a metric I stole from the IHSA: First Degree Playoff Points (PP1), which is the sum of wins by all the opponents a team defeated; Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2), which takes the mean of PP1 of all opponents a team defeated; and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), which is like PP1 but subtracts the sum of losses by opponents who defeated a team. You can view how all those metrics were calculated here.

To ensure that I leave out room for bias, I also take into account three different sets of computer rankings, grabbing the average of the three to get a rough picture. These three rankings all take margin of victory into account: Jeff Sagarin's, the late David Rothman's, and those from the website All My Sports Teams Suck. I will also look at record against other playoff teams starting just with the conference champions and adding in the at large teams as I pick them. This factor will help mostly with seeding, but may also help when I look at picking the at large teams.

So without further ado, here is your field for the 2018 Death to the BCS Playoffs!

Game Notes: (MBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (12/1/18)

Final Score
NCC 75, Millikin 64

Game Summary
The Big Blue (4-2, 0-1) got their lineup in on time this year, so they started infinitely better than they did in last season's matchup. They even stayed in it despite the Cardinals (5-0, 1-0) scoring the game's first four points. North Central seemed in control early, leading by as many as eight at 16-8 before the Big Blue climbed back into it with a couple threes, and they even grabbed a 21-20 lead with 6:45 to play. But the lead lasted all of 17 seconds as a couple free throws gave North Central the lead back, and they wouldn't look back, pushing the lead to 38-29 at the break. The Big Blue pushed the deficit down to five early in the second half, but a 9-2 Cardinal run gave control firmly back to the hosts, with the lead stretching as high as 17 a few times before the final buzzer sounded.

Key Players

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 7-9 FG (1-2 3PT), 3-4 FT; 18 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. It was another pretty good floor game for Raridon, as he had a very efficient day shooting the ball, mostly on fallaways, but he also did a great job sharing the ball and played solid defense all game.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 5-14 FG (0-5 3PT), 4-6 FT; 14 pts, 9 reb (4 off), 5 ast. Cap didn't have his best shooting game in this one as he missed all his outside looks, but he found a way to still have an impact, getting to the basket, making some free throws, and distributing the ball. The fact that he was the leading rebounder from both teams helped, too.
• Elijah Henry (MIL): 5-9 FG (1-1 3PT), 5-6 FT; 16 pts, 6 reb (3 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. Henry was probably the best guy on the floor for the Big Blue tonight with an efficient 16 points, 11 of which came in the second half. He was also their leading rebounder, but did commit three turnovers in the losing effort. Even so, a solid game all-around for him.

Key Stats

• NCC: 5-18 3PT (27.8%). This team continues to have some struggles occasionally shooting the ball, but it didn't hurt them tonight. It was just odd to see Cap go 0-5, Mike Pollack go 0-2, and no player make more than one. The shots will fall as the season goes on, so I'm not too worried here.
• MIL: 21-24 FT (87.5%). This was really what kept Millikin in the game, especially in the first half. They went 7-8 at the line in the first 20 minutes, and while they didn't really get anyone from North Central in foul trouble in that half, that was what helped keep the game close. Even late in the contest, they were able to keep it a respectable margin based on a good night at the line.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ IWU 75 (7-0, 1-0), CAR 67 (3-4, 0-1) (OT)
• @ NPU 68 (2-6, 1-0), WHE  65 (5-2, 0-1)
• @ AUG 68 (5-1, 1-0), CRL 56 (2-4, 0-1)
• Bye: UW-Oshkosh 68, @ ELM 57 (2-3, 0-0)

Final Thoughts

Millikin, on the whole, looked pretty good tonight, all things considered. They definitely showed they're deserving of their record. North Central, meanwhile, continues to go possibly under the radar a little bit. They're undefeated, albeit against not the strongest schedule, but wins are wins, and you take them how you can get them (ask Illinois Wesleyan tonight; they'd agree). But the Cardinals gritted this one out with good defense and making some easy shots inside.

North Central continues its homestand on Wednesday as they welcome Carroll back to Merner for the first time since the Cardinals blew a 20 point lead to the Pioneers last year. They'll follow that up with North Park at home a week from tonight, who you can't sleep on since they beat Wheaton.

Game Notes: (WBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (12/1/18)

Final Score
Millikin 73, NCC 69

Game Summary
The Cardinals (1-4, 0-1) got the early jump in this one, scoring the game's first three points, but the Big Blue (2-5, 1-0) got their offense going into high gear, following that up with a 13-2 run to take control of the game and led 18-9 after one. North Central fell apart, committing some mind-boggling turnovers while Millikin took advantage, leading 37-15 late in the half before the Cardinals scored the quarter's final five points. North Central came out invigorated in the second half though, scoring eight straight to get back into the contest. Millikin would push the lead back as high as 15, but the Cardinals fought back to make it a 54-48 game after three. The Big Blue would push the lead back as high as 12 in the final frame, but the Cardinals went on a 13-2 stretch spanning five minutes to get the lead down to one, though a missed free throw kept the Big Blue in front, and Millikin made enough shots in the final two minutes to escape with a road victory.

Key Players

• Aubrey Staton (MIL): 4-9 FG (3-6 3PT), 6-8 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb, 2 ast, 3 blk, 1 stl. There were a few key players I could have gone with for the Big Blue, but Staton led the team in scoring, and she had three of the four Millikin blocks in this game. The fact that she was able to hit outside shots was a big help for Millikin.
• Alanna Newsome (NCC): 9-22 FG(3-9 3PT), 3-6 FT; 24 pts, 2 reb, 1 stl. Newsome was a spark plug off the bench, especially in the second half, when she scored 18 of her game-high 24 points. The free throws are a little concerning, but it's still early in the season.
• Tyonne Howard (NCC): 5-18 FG (1-3 3PT), 1-2 FT; 12 pts, 1 reb, 6 ast, 6 stl. Howard was a mixed bag tonight; the shooting numbers weren't great, as she missed a few looks at the rim, but hit some shots when the team needed her to. She committed eight turnovers, which is high, but she's a freshman, and she makes up for it by distributing the ball well and wreaking some havoc defensively.

Key Stats

• NCC: 17-25 FT (68.0%). This mark is a little higher than their season average coming in, and shooting at this mark is an acceptable number in a vacuum. But when you lose by four, I can't help but look at these numbers. Even making three or four of these changes how the game ends to some degree.
• MIL: 31 turnovers. This is an absurd number, reminiscent of the System years. They were actually pretty evenly distributed (15 in the first half, 16 in the second half), but this is a mind-boggling number for a team that won. Maybe even more mind-boggling: senior guard Yanni Sadler had 14 of these turnovers. The Cardinals got 12 of these off steals, while there were a number of travels called in this one.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• @ IWU 85 (5-2, 1-0), CAR 71 (3-2, 0-1)
• WHE 81 (4-2, 1-0), @ NPU 32 (3-4, 0-1)
• @ AUG 69 (4-3, 1-0), CRL 56 (3-4, 0-1)
• Bye: Chicago 73, @ ELM 54 (3-3, 0-0)

Final Thoughts

My dad attended tonight's game, and at halftime we agreed that the first half was probably the worst half of basketball we'd ever seen. For me, it was a matter of context too: I would have expected to be losing that badly against the Wheaton's or Illinois Wesleyan's of the world, but not against Millikin. Both North Central coach Maggie McCloskey-Bax and Millikin coach Olivia Lett after the game noted that it was "a tale of two halves," which it absolutely was.

Coach Bax's general thought about it was that it turned into an exciting game, but being down 22 was too much. But she followed that up with "We're young, we'll get there," which is absolutely right. This team has some good pieces; they just need to put a complete game together.

It doesn't get much easier this coming week, with a trip to Augustana on the docket. But the Cardinals follow that up with another home Saturday date, this time against North Park.