All but one of us finished below .500 for the week last week, and while I don't necessarily want to say that we're seeing some separation... we kind of are. Adam took five of our eight disputed games from last week to extend his lead over me, but I remain in second place with a slight cushion. You can view the full standings here, and how we've all picked in relation to each other here.
We have our first set of byes this week to cut the slate down to 15 games. Adam calls this week:
"The great reversal for about the next 3-4 weeks... where the oddsmakers over-correct and therefore cause many people to pick the wrong side of a game. While I am tempted to do an opposite week, with my [three] game lead I am going to just be more thoughtful about the picks."As part of "The Great Reversal," Adam and I disagree on eight games. Onward to the picks!
Thursday Night
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Lucas: Packers. Even with a struggling offense, it's Green Bay at home against the walking wounded from Philly. Whichever receivers aren't out due to injury can be contained by the likes of future Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander, and even in the rare instances they get open...
— 🙏🏽 (@CoreyTanner) September 23, 2019Lucas note: Philly fans are freaking savages.
Adam: Eagles. I really like this line. It's at the right spot; any higher or lower and my choice is obvious. I know the Eagles are hurt, and A-A-Ron can do crazy things and it is in Lambeau and all, but while the Eagles have not looked that good, sitting at 1-2, I think they bounce back in a big way this week.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Okay, so for those of you scoring at home: this is not a penalty...
...but throwing your helmet after you tear your Achilles is a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. I get the rule, but this is not the spirit of it. Suspend Alex Kemp (it's only his second year as a referee; let him have a little grace) and fire Al Riveron and Roger Goodell into the sun. While you're at it, fire Todd Prukop, the guy who missed the above facemask seeing as he's the dude who missed the pass interference in the NFC title game last year.The NFL's explanation on the controversial face mask in the Eagles-Lions game that was not called on the field: pic.twitter.com/2SVmZKXUix— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) September 23, 2019
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I almost took the Bills here, because this is probably the best defense New England has faced to date and might face all year, and a touchdown might be a lot to lay, but this requires Josh Allen to have a day against another elite defense that hasn't allowed an offensive touchdown through three games. Have fun with that.
Adam: Bills. This is one of those games that in Weeks 1-3 I would likely have taken the Pats all day and expected to cash all tickets. I feel like this is going to be a slippery game; the Bills have some nice weapons. A Pats win, but the Bills back door cover in slop time.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I, for one, am enjoying me some Lamar Jackson.
Adam: Ravens. I know the Ravens looked less than great against the Chiefs in what many expected to be a shootout given Jackson’s emergence. It did not pan out that way, but I think the rain in KC had something to do with that. The Ravens are the much better team and will show it at home handily.“I’m open!”— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2019
“What do you want me to do about it???” pic.twitter.com/RcFIElYBJ8
Lucas note: Did I miss something last week? I know most of the damage came from Mark Ingram, but Baltimore only lost by five in a pretty high-scoring affair that I'd call a shootout.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (+6.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Good, maybe after this week we can stop talking about this Lions team that isn't as good as everyone thinks they are. Go have a day, Mahomes.
Adam: Lions. Here is another game that, if it has been Weeks 1-3, I would have taken KC without hesitation. Let's just call it like it is: the Lions are better than many expected, particularly the offense. Like the Pats game, I like KC to win, but Lions to cover at home.
Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. Crappy West Coast team coming east to face a Colts team that's been better than expected through three weeks? Yeah, okay.
Adam: Raiders. Man, they are coming hot and heavy now: another game I may have chosen differently early in the season. Both of these teams have performed better than expected given each of their untimely departures… I really could go either way on this, but playing off what I said in my intro, there may be an over-correction going on and I like the Colts by about 4.5, not 6.5. Like before, Colts win but Raiders cover.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (+16.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I'm super tempted to take the points, especially against a struggling Chargers team at home, but facing the Dolphins seems to be a cure-all for everyone.
Adam: Dolphins. I know there is a dumpster fire in Miami right now, but things are not all rosy in LA with the Chargers either after a poor start of 1-2 and their star running back holding out still (maybe that will end sooner than folks think.) The Fins actually shut down a halfway decent Dallas squad (if you want to view 31 points as “shutting down” though it is Dak,) but that’s a different story. Fins cover, that’s all I got.
Lucas note: Yeah... 31 points is not "shutting down," even if it is an improvement over their first couple weeks.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3.5)
Lucas: Giants. I know I picked Daniel Jones with a video of all the angry Giants fans on draft night last week, but have every single one of those people apologized for their reaction? Or did making his jersey the best seller on Sunday count as an apology?
Adam: Redskins. I can go either way here. I was originally going to go Giants, but then remembered their biggest offensive weapon is on crutches. The Skins don’t look much better; I think 3.5 is the right line here and if I fart the wrong way, I could be convinced to change my mind.
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (-4.5)
Lucas: Panthers. I'm all in on Kyle Allen, especially since he'll get backup from his defense putting Deshaun Watson on his back all day. There's plenty here for a backdoor cover.
Adam: Texans. I just cannot see Kyle Allen doing what he did last week again. Plain and simple, I’ll lay the points and hope.
Lucas note: Sorry, I had to.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I'm just not willing to lay double digits on the Rams yet even if they're unbeaten. I look forward to the specials on tap from The Bakery to screw with me.
Adam: Buccaneers. It's that time of the year to pull out the "It's 10 points in the NFL; there is too much parity" line. I’ll happily take the points.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I got burned by Arizona last week; it's not happening again.
Adam: Seahawks. This is a fast pick for me. I just have no faith in Arizona right now and Seattle is the much better team overall. Assuming Carson can hold onto the ball this should be an easy win for Seattle. I’ll even give a little to Pete Carroll for taking one off the nose.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Lucas: Bears. Yeah, Trubisky looked better on Monday against the Redskins. If he pulls that off against Minnesota I'll be more impressed. I'm almost tempted to take the Vikings and the points with that in mind, but that would mean betting on Kirk Cousins against this defense... no thanks.
Adam: Bears. The line is low enough I will take my Bears. If the defense does as well as they did Monday night, they should be able to shut down Cook and the Minnesota offense. It really comes down to will Eddie and The Biscuit be ready and able to put up some points. All signs point to yes, Bears by 4.
Lucas note: Eddie and the Biscuit sounds like an afternoon drive sports talk radio show in the South. Sign me up.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Don't bet against Gardner Minshew? Don't bet against Gardner Minshew.
Adam: Jaguars. Holding true to my word, no Foles = pick the Jags.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
Lucas: Saints. You mean to tell me I can get the Saints, even without Drew Brees, as a home dog in prime time? I'll take it until Al Riveron screws something up again.
Adam note: For the record, the Jets are 30 in my opinion.
Monday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I know Pittsburgh is winless and Mason Rudolph is the guy now, but I still have zero faith in the Bengals. I'll lay the points on Monday night.
Adam: Bengals. They have to show me some love eventually. A valiant try the past 3 weeks; they have had some bad play and some really good play. I mean, they fought hard against Seattle and almost (read: should have) had a come back last min W against the Bills. I wish this was a home game for them, but I’ll take Cincy to win straight up.
Records So Far
Lucas: 26-22 (7-9 last week)
Adam: 29-19 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 24-24 (7-9 last week)
Geoffrey: 20-28 (6-10 last week)
Aiden: 17-31 (6-10 last week)
Jim: 21-27 (7-9 last week)
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