2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 13

It's nitty-gritty time. Rivalry week is in the rear view mirror, and with Championship Weekend on the horizon, we have one final season-ending update for these rankings to come.

I don't count championship games for Playoff Points; it skews the numbers too much for the roughly 15 percent of teams fortunate enough to get what is essentially an early playoff game that can unfairly alter the picture for the remaining 85 percent. I do update win/loss totals following those games, which will have smaller, ancillary effects on teams, but not the big leaps that we see on a week in, week out basis with these rankings.

I missed the NCSS ranking post this past week, so I'm going to include it as a part of this final batch of rankings for Playoff Points, just as a point of reference for everyone.

Game Notes: (MBK) Aurora University @ North Central College (11/27/21)

Final Score
NCC 76, Aurora 44

Game Summary
This one didn't get off to a great start as the Spartans (1-4) scored the game's first four points before the Cardinals (3-1) got things figured out and overcame one last deficit at 6-4, embarking on a 14-2 run that spanned about seven minutes and gave North Central total control. Aurora never got closer than within eight the rest of the way as the Cardinals built a 33-15 halftime lead, then all but it out of reach with eight straight to open the second half. The margin was at least 20 from that point on, and was in the 30's for a good chunk of the half, allowing Todd Raridon to empty his bench for the final couple minutes.

Key Players

• Matt Helwig (NCC): 8-14 FG (3-6 3PT), 3-4 FT; 22 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl. Matt has become the go-to offensive guy for the Cardinals in the early going of the campaign; after a monster performance in the Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue earlier in the week, he scored the first dozen points of the game for the Cardinals to help set the tone while the rest of the squad got going.
• Terrance Moncrief (NCC): 4-7 FG (2-4 3PT); 10 pts, 1 reb, 1 stl. There weren't a ton of other outstanding Cardinals looking at the box score, but I was pretty impressed with what Moncrief brought to the table in 22 minutes of action. He was an early sub for the Cardinals and hit a couple threes as part of that 14-2 run that gave the Cardinals control for the evening. He's got good burst and a pretty good shot; I think he'll be a good piece going forward for this team, and as a freshman, he's got time to blossom.
• Shamar Pumphrey (AUR): 3-16 FG (1-5 3PT); 7 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl. There were no good picks for Aurora, so we'll go with a guy that felt like a microcosm of their game tonight. When you tie for your team's lead in scoring with seven points... you're not having a good night.

Key Stats

• NCC: 10-24 3PT (41.7%). Coming into this one, the Cardinals were shooting a putrid 21.7% from three point range, so a confidence booster was needed, and tonight provided one. Getting the early spark from Matt Helwig and Terrance Moncrief was good as other guys got into the action as the game went on. The ten made threes matched the total from the first three games and pumped the Cardinals' numbers for the season up a full seven percentage points to a still rough 28.6 percent. We'll get there.
• AUR: 22 points off 20 NCC turnovers. I don't know if Aurora features a press as part of its main defensive strategy or it's something they saw that had given the Cardinals some fits in the early going, but it did help to some extent. Aurora only managed eight points off turnovers in the first half before picking it up a bit in the second (though a lot of that stemmed from a generally awful first half offensively).

Final Thoughts
There's not much to take from this game, and I won't sugarcoat it: this Spartan team is not very good. You have to beat the teams you're supposed to, and in that regard the Cardinals took care of business. But I'm not lauding this as some sort of masterpiece, because the Cardinals do have to clean some things up. I was a little surprised to see North Central finished with a 40-32 rebounding edge, because the Spartans had an edge in the first half. This is something the Cardinals will need to clean up, because CCIW play is fast approaching. North Central has a week now to prepare for the Carthage Firebirds to come invade Gregory Arena to open conference play.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

The coalition returns... except to your ears this time.

It's tradition for the Week 12 Pigskin Pick 'Em feature to go up a day early given the holiday. The newer tradition is that, instead of going full column, Adam and I are doing a podcast episode with our picks. Joe unfortunately wasn't able to join our recording session on Tuesday, but he did send picks along, so his are all mentioned on here in addition to mine and Adam's for your listening pleasure.

Last week I took five of six disputed picks from Adam and three of four from Joe, while Joe had that same three of four margin over Adam. Adam remains in first place in the group, but his lead narrows. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

Let's get to the table and feast! From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 12

Just one week of the regular season remains!

We have rivalry week coming up this weekend as the conference races start to come to a close and we get ready for postseason play and the Death to the BCS Playoffs. And that's where these rankings come in.

Just about everything is set in stone in terms of conferences, though the individual team races are still somewhat up for grabs.

Let's look at how we stack up through 12 weeks.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

The coalition returns to action for another week of picking NFL games!

Joe joined us for last week's slate, and for us... it did not go well. And then there's Adam, who swept three hero picks, making the difference as he took four of five from me and six of seven from Joe, while I took three of four from Joe.

This builds Adam's lead to double digits as the rest of us are a mix of treading water above .500 to fairly far below. Adam's incredible success in hero picks (both in terms of rate and volume) is the reason for his large lead. Odd year magic is at it again. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here.

Joe joins us again this week, and in this 15 game slate, Adam and I disagree on six, Joe and I on four, and Joe and Adam on four games. Let's get to it!

Editor note: Prior to kickoff on Sunday, both Adam and Joe used a mulligan to change their picks from Ravens -6.5 to Bears +6.5. And then prior to kickoff on Monday, Joe used a second mulligan to change his pick from Buccaneers -11.5 to Giants +11.5. Joe and Adam have both used two of their four mulligans for the season. Column was updated Monday 11/22 to reflect these changes.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

The penultimate week of the regular season gets underway tonight, which means it's time to get a quick peek at what's coming up.

We've got MACtion again each of the next two nights, which will help determine one automatic bid recipient, and likely not any at large berths. Most of that will come on Saturday, which is also when the D-III playoffs kick off, something I'm excited for.

There won't be many adjustments this week, though next week's batch of rivalry games certainly will. We'll see just how much that swings the pendulum, but for right now, here's where we're at going into Week 12.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 11

I am to some degree in full playoff mode, as D-III had their selection show for the playoffs on Sunday. Meanwhile, the FBS still has two more weeks of regular season games, plus Championship Weekend, on the docket. And with another week's worth of games in the books from last week, I need to take a look at the results and how things change now.

I'm still up in the air about doing a mock bracket, though with basketball clear for another week or two, I may have time to pull that off, and it won't seem like I'm doing too much anymore I don't think.

But for now, let's look at how the results from this past week have changed the numbers here.

Game Notes: California Lutheran University @ North Central College (11/10/21)

Final Score
CLU 80, NCC 79

Game Summary
This was a heartbreaker, but it started well enough as the Cardinals (0-1) scored the game's first five points and held the Kingsmen (1-0) off the board for the first six minutes before their offense finally woke up. It was tight for a while, with a couple lead changes and a few ties before the Cardinals started to separate a little bit with a 12-3 run to build a nine point lead with about five and a half to go in the opening half. But the Kingsmen stuck around, cutting the deficit to three a couple times before going into the break down 35-30 to North Central. The Cardinals started the second half hot, scoring nine of the first ten points within the first two minutes to build a 13 point advantage, their high water mark of the night. But again, the Kingsmen did not go away, as they slowly chipped into NCC's lead, making it a one possession game with about 12 minutes to play, and taking their first lead since the first half about a minute later. The teams traded half a dozen one point leads after that before Cal Lutheran took its biggest lead of the night at five. But the Cardinals had a strong push left in them, and they retook the lead with an 8-0 run with about four minutes to play. North Central had a pair of four point leads in the final two minutes, but both times the Kingsmen responded with a three to cut it to one. After a Cardinal miss with 20 seconds to go, the Kingsmen got a foul call with 5.3 ticks left, hit both free throws to take a one point lead, and the Cardinals' last gasp was well covered and fell short, giving the Kingsmen a great start to their three game Chicago swing.

Key Players

• Mason Johnson (CLU): 7-15 FG (1-3 3PT), 6-10 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 3 stl. There were a number of heroes for the Kingsmen in this one, but we'll go with the guy who gave them the win. Johnson had the ball down on the baseline on their final possession, drew a foul with 5.3 seconds left, and despite Merner getting loud, he calmly hit both free throws (even with a North Central timeout in between) that gave his team the final lead of the game, and the one that held.
• Jacob Alonzo (CLU): 6-9 FG (1-1 3PT), 3-3 FT; 16 pts, 4 reb (3 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. Alonzo was one of the smaller guys on the court last night, but he certainly didn't play like it. He hit several big shots in this one, and the rebounding numbers (especially offensively) were strong. He also distributed the ball well and got a couple steals in the Kingsmen's 3-2 zone trap.
• Matt Helwig (NCC): 9-16 FG (1-3 3PT), 2-2 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. I almost went with Blaise Meredith (18 and 9), but Matt was probably better for more of the game. Most of his points came when the Cardinals were able to break the trap, as they found a ton of easy layups in this one. The rebounding numbers were nice too. Hopefully this is a good start to the season for him.

Key Stats

• NCC: 15-24 FT (62.5%). Look, when you lose by a single point, this is the number I'm going to go look at, and it backs up the result. The big miss for me was when Blaise Meredith was fouled on a made three with 90 seconds to go, and he couldn't cash in on the four point play. That would have gotten the Cardinals to 80, and forced overtime assuming Cal Lutheran went with the same play they did down one. To be fair to Blaise though, he wasn't the only one who struggled; Ethan Helwig hit just one of four freebies in his first game as a Cardinal, Blaise missed a couple others, and Brian Johnson split a pair earlier in the game. But more alarming...
• CLU: 32 points off 21 NCC turnovers. This was the other big number. The Cardinals got sloppy against that zone trap, often getting themselves stuck in corners and having to try to bail themselves out, only to cough it up. 12 of North Central's 21 turnovers came in the second half, with those 12 giveaways leading to 20 Kingsmen points.

Final Thoughts

Photo by Mark Black

Honorable mention stat: 69 of Cal Lutheran's 80 points came off the bench. I don't think I'll ever see a higher percentage of scoring come from reserves, probably not even in a System game.

This one hurt. The Cardinals led for a majority of this game, and while I won't say they were in control necessarily, the lead was such that they had a good margin for much of it. I don't know if they took their feet off the gas or what, but credit the Kingsmen for coming into a tough building and gutting out a hard-fought win. They continue their Chicago trip with a game at IIT on Friday and close it out at North Park on Sunday.

For North Central, this is a tough pill to swallow; normally there's a clunker or two at home, especially at the start of the year. They'll have to get ready to get back to work, because they're going to be running a ton on Saturday as they head out to take on Greenville and The System.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

I can exhale from basketball now for a couple weeks. Let's get back to the coalition, shall we?

I'm okay, I guess, with how I closed out the first half of the season. I'm not thrilled that Adam took four of our six disputed games last week, but I am happy that I did well enough that I'm now tied for second in the group with Geoffrey and behind just Adam for the group lead, even if the gap is widening a little bit.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's big advantage has come in the fact that he has almost half of the group's total hero picks, and he's hit on half of those; he's also done really well in minority picks (where just he and one other of us have gotten that game right). We're also doing pretty well when we all come to a consensus.

The other fun thing this week: after some bullying persuading, we finally talked Joe into joining the column. I'm not sure if this will be a permanent thing or not, but given his enjoyment of the memes over our group text, I'm glad he's finally sharing his wit with all of you.

This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14, Joe and I on four, and Adam and Joe on seven. Let's get to it!

2021-22 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Yesterday was a busy day, and today it continues as the men make their season debut.

It'll be another evening at Merner Fieldhouse for me, which I'm excited for once again. It should be an interesting campaign on this end as well, so let's take a look at what to expect on the other side.

Game Notes: St. Mary's College @ North Central College (11/9/21)

Final Score
NCC 58, SMC 47

Game Summary
Wasn't the prettiest game, but the Cardinals (1-0) came out of the gate strong on the defensive end, putting the clamps on the Belles (0-1) for the first several minutes, allowing just a single free throw as they were able to build a 15-1 lead eight minutes in. Then the cold spell set in, as the Belles scored the last five of the opening quarter and the first 11 of the second quarter to take their first lead of the contest. St. Mary's would push their lead as high as seven midway through the frame before the Cardinal offense woke up, and thanks in part to a late jumper cut it to two at 27-25 Belles going into the break. The Cardinals opened the second half on a 6-0 run, keeping the Belles off the board for the first four and a half minutes and only allowed a single field goal, giving NCC a 35-31 lead after three. A 7-0 Cardinal run early in the fourth pushed NCC's lead back to double digits, and the Belles would get no closer than within seven the rest of the way.

Key Players

• Allison Pearson (NCC): 5-12 FG (4-9 3PT); 14 pts, 7 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. The five turnovers were a little alarming, but the six assists more than made up for it. She hit a trio of early threes, including one that kind of banked home and elicited a smile coming back down the court. I wondered if it was a sign of a good day upcoming, and her numbers tonight were good, but she didn't threaten the record book or anything. Underrated is the rebounding, especially among some taller players. Good start to the year.
• IxChel Leeuwenburgh (NCC): 5-14 FG; 10 pts, 11 reb (5 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. I continue to be impressed at how well IxChel has improved as a player. She had a very strong outing in this one, and while the shooting left a little to be desired, she led all players in rebounds, bearing in mind that she did double dip on a couple offensive boards to get a putback at one point. I'll allow it though.
• Elle Deardorff (SMC): 6-13 FG (3-6 3PT), 4-6 FT; 19 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 1 stl. Deardorff was probably the best player for a team playing its first game in almost two years. It was a pretty good shooting night for her, with all of her made threes coming in the second quarter to get her to double figures by the break. She got slowed down in the second half, which was a big reason for the Cardinal victory.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded SMC 45-31. I'm so used to this going the other way, but the Cardinals did an outstanding job on the glass in this one. North Central held an 18-11 edge on the offensive glass, helping steer a 15-9 advantage in second chance points. It didn't account for all of it, but it was a big contributor.
• SMC: Outscored NCC off turnovers 16-14. This was a big thing for me, especially early, as the Cardinals for stretches in the first half were a little careless with the ball. There were two unforced turnovers in the backcourt by North Central, and while I don't remember if the Belles scored directly off either, they didn't help. It was part of why Saint Mary's got out to the lead in the second quarter.

Final Thoughts
For a first game, you expect some rust and some kinks to be worked out, and that was definitely the case. I'm also not terribly surprised that the Cardinals had an offensive cold spell, but I'm glad it happened when it did and not late in the game. North Central played really good defense in this one, and did enough on offense, especially late in the game, to seal this one out and open the campaign with a win.

It was also great to get back to having a game with fans in the building, and they definitely helped bring some energy in this one. Nature is healing.

The Cardinals will hit the road this weekend to Southwest Michigan to play in Hope College's Tip Off Tournament. They'll get Mount Union in the opener on Friday, then will play either Edgewood or the host Flying Dutch on Saturday.

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

While I'm back at Merner Fieldhouse tonight straining my vocal cords some more, MACtion will be back in full swing, so it's time to take a look at the upcoming slate of college football action.

I did have a revision that I needed to make to last week's rankings, not knowing what was going on. I missed that the Wake Forest-North Carolina game was technically being considered a non-conference tilt. As such, the Week 10 numbers have been updated giving Wake and UNC both some additional NCSS points. That updated number will be reflected in this week's set of rankings.

So without further ado, let's get to it!

2021-22 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

"Soon, the echoes of #THREEEEEEEEE will return to downtown Naperville."

And by soon, I mean... Tuesday, November 9th.

It's been a crazy year and a half-plus, transitioning to a world of working from home on the regular, going sportsless for months at a time, and even when we first came back, often having those without crowds. But we're starting to get back to normal, and I'm looking forward to it as the NCAA Division III hoops season is officially underway around the country. And as I prepare to begin my 11th season as the resident idiot on the microphone at Merner Fieldhouse, I figure it's time to take a look at the upcoming campaign. Since the women's team tips first, we'll start with them.

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

The football gods were offered chaos this past week, which means there's a lot to look into now.

I still haven't decided if I'm going to do mock brackets or not, since it's tough with no clearly determined conference champion to really get a clear bracket picture, but I may try. Given the amount of content coming though, that may not be until next week's results are in, though I am trying to track computer rankings as well, which are part of the selection and seeding process.

So without further ado, let's look at the results from last week and see where the conferences stand with their rankings.

2021 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

The coalition is back as we approach the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season!

I'm still not totally sure if it's hit me yet that everyone is playing 17 games this season; maybe it's because I think the change was dumb, but the almighty dollar continues to rule the NFL. Meanwhile, ruling the group still continues to be Adam, though his lead is narrowing. After using his first mulligan on Sunday night, that was the deciding game that gave the narrow edge for the week as I took four of seven disputed games. Adam remains in the lead, but it's down to just two games as Geoffrey had a monster Week 8 to get within striking distance.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam's early success in hero picks has regressed back to the mean a little bit, though among more split picks he's been really good, which is how he's still out in front. I'm hanging on despite a rough hero start.

This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2021 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Happy MACtion month.

I'm making sure I get this done earlier than I have a couple times earlier this season where the NCSS numbers aren't getting updated until way late in the week. But with more Tuesday and Wednesday night games (thanks MAC and ESPN), I'm trying to make sure I'm all caught up here.

Most of the games still from here on out will continue to be in-conference, but given the presence of seven independent teams, plus a rivalry week coming up sooner than we think, these numbers will continue to change.

So without further ado, let's see what's coming up!

2021 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

Nine weeks are in the books, and we only have about a month left to go before the Death to the BCS Playoffs begin.

At this point we're starting to get a pretty clear separation, and it's going to be getting harder and harder to pick at large teams. But we'll worry about that as we get closer.

For now, let's take a look at how the results from Week 9 impact the Playoff Point numbers.