COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

Three weeks into the season, we're starting to know who a lot of the teams in the league are to this point. Also through three weeks, we have (maybe) an idea of how well we're all picking games. Through two weeks we were tied, but Nathaniel and I had a wider gap this time as I took a 4 game lead. Obviously as I learned last year, it's way too early to start thinking about what I'd write on SSLYAR this year if I win.

So we're back at picking games for Week 4 as the byes start to kick in (thankfully for some teams... I'm looking at mine), so there will be fewer games and thus fewer opportunities to rack up obscene numbers of points in a given week, though it's not too bad this week with 15 games on the docket. This time we disagree on only 5 games, so he can still climb back in it. Let's get started.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 5

We're onto Week 5 of the college football season, and we're definitely getting into the heart of conference play. With the number of byes from earlier on this season though, we're not into full-fledged conference play yet. But with the number of conference games going on this week, the weekly scores for conferences are going to be pretty small in general. On the plus side though, this means we're almost through all the cupcake scheduling.

If you want to see where we left off, you can view last week's rankings here. Like I've done so far this season, in parentheses you will see a pair of numbers: the first is the average score for the week of scheduling for a conference, and the second is for the conference's cumulative average over the course of the season. Here's where we stand with the upcoming weekend's games.

NBA Tournament of Champions: Championship of Champions

ESPN analyst and Grantland columnist Bill Simmons has a theory about NBA title teams that's backed up by almost 70 years of history.

"You build potential champions around one player. He doesn't have to be a super-duper star or someone who can score at will, just someone who leads by example, kills himself on a daily basis, raises the competitive nature of his teammates, and lifts them to a better place... You surround that superstar with one or two elite sidekicks who understand their place in the team's hierarchy, don't obsess over stats, and fill in every blank they can... From that framework, you complete your nucleus with top-notch role players and/or character guys... who know their place, don't make mistakes, and won't threaten that unselfish culture, as well as a coaching staff dedicated to keeping those team-ahead-of-individual values in place." (The Book of Basketball, pp. 47-48)

So when we look at how the NBA Tournament of Champions has unfolded over the past few months, it's no surprise that teams built around this principle are the ones to have made it to this point. Each titan left standing here today got here primarily behind the efforts of one superstar who is the unquestioned leader of his team, aided by a pair of excellent sidekicks, followed up by a capable group of role players that know their roles and execute them. And these teams might not have been as successful were it not for the men patrolling the sidelines, two of the best ever at their craft. I've simulated 348 games since July 1 to get us to this point, and you learn a lot over that span.

• My dad noted that after Round 1, 75% of the time (24 of the 32 series), the more recent team advanced. Running the numbers for the rest of the tournament, 11 of the 16 second round series had the more recent team advance, 6 of 8 in the third round, and all 4 teams that made the semis were more recent than their opponents. Last round bucked the trend, as the older teams made the Finals, but overall that's 45 of the 62 series, or about 73 percent of the time. Obviously the recency bias is correlational, not causal, but it definitely backs up my dad's theory (and possibly the algorithms WhatIfSports uses) that today's teams are generally bigger, faster, stronger and better than yesteryear's.
• WhatIfSports seemed to treat a lot of these games like exhibition games. Many rosters had more than 15 guys and we saw a lot of teams play no-name guys in garbage time. It also allowed for a funky fluke in having Elgin Baylor play for the 1972 Lakers despite his retiring a few games into the season (so to compensate, I didn't put him on the depth chart and he only appeared in games that had gotten out of hand and only for a couple minutes). For a (fictional) tournament to determine the best team ever in the NBA, this is curious.
• Looking through 358 box scores to compile stats to create All Bracket and eventually the All Tournament Teams is really, really time consuming. And we still have another 4-7 games left!
• Having an elite post presence is all but essential to being one of the best teams of all time. Looking at the teams that made the third round, you had teams who had a major contributor at either the center or power forward position. Notable examples were Kareem (twice), Shaq, Wilt, Tim Duncan, and Moses Malone. Needless to say, these guys were key factor in advancing their teams. The only possible Achilles heel to this is...
• If your team has a transcendent talent on the perimeter as its best player, you can largely get by without an elite center. Hence why Both of LeBron's title teams made the semis, and Michael's best team is in the Finals with only 3 losses to their name all tournament long.

I think most of that a lot of people either knew or could have guessed all of these things, but it's nice to have data to back up those theories. I've rambled on enough. You probably know the drill at this point: this Finals series is a best of seven (2-2-1-1-1 format) with home court going to the team with the better overall record (regular season plus playoffs). All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. In the words of Christopher Lambert, "There can be only one!"

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 4

Hard to believe it's already Week 4 of the NCAA season. Conference play is really starting to pick up this week, so this is probably the last in-depth post I'll have to detail things and I'll probably do express posts in the coming weeks. While it's definitely still way too early to start thinking about seeding playoff teams, it's something to keep in mind as we approach November.

If you want to see where we've been so far, you can view last week's rankings here. The rankings below will follow the same general format: rankings are based on a conference's cumulative average score over the four weeks. That's the second number in parentheses, following the average score for the week.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 2

Odd numbers occasionally cause some craziness, so when Nathaniel and I sat down to talk about how we were going to go about doing the posts for game picks, we agreed quickly that he would start this season, since I started last season's. I only hope that winning the contest isn't tied to who has more posts, but we'll see.

Week 1 was full of some dramatic games and started out pretty interesting but also historically (and I'm not talking about Peyton Manning). For the first time since we started this coalition, Nathaniel has the lead in picks! It's only one week in, but he's up by 1 game (the Skins-Eagles game was the difference). So as we get set to start Week 2 tonight, hopefully neither of us gets too caught up in overreacting to the first game. Of course, I make no promises about either of us. We disagree on only 7 of the games this time, so let's see if the standings can flip.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 3

September is now, for all intents and purposes, in full swing. We've played 2 weeks of college football (and 2 of high school here in Illinois) and one week of the NFL season. I'll have mine and Nathaniel's Week 2 picks for you tomorrow, but for now I'm back to the college ranks.

There's been some compelling games through 2 weeks, even in the midst of dozens of games against FCS competition. Yeah, I've been hard on those schools, and yes, I know the FCS schools like those games to see how they measure up against top tier competition and get a fancy paycheck for doing so, but I really don't think these games should count in the standings... especially when they get played at the end of the year. It's a scummy way to work your way up the rankings. If you're going to play these games, have them be a preseason affair a week before the regular season starts as a tuneup so they don't count in the standings, but fans can get their early fix in for football. The only issue then becomes player safety, which is another matter entirely. I stand by my criticisms.

So if you want a look at where we've been so far, you can view last week's rankings here. While I'm keeping up with the Road-Home Disparity Index, it's too early to post it, and it's also way too early for playoff points. As such, here's how the Non-Conference Schedule Strength metrics measure up by conference. In parentheses are the average scores for the week, followed by the total average score for the conference on the year. Rankings are based on total average score for the conference.

NBA Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

It was great to get back into the spirit of regular season football, wasn't it? However, with three series left to play in the NBA Tournament of Champions, I need to take advantage of a day off from football posts to fill the gap.

So if you've forgotten where we left off, both of LeBron's Heat teams still stand, and they oppose one of MJ's title teams and one of Duncan's from the past decade. They now go to battle to see who will play for the Championship of Champions.

Both these series, like the 60 that preceded them, are best of seven (2-2-1-1-1 format), with home court going to the team with the better overall record (regular season plus playoffs). All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 2

With NFL previews now finished, I'm back to the college scene. Last week saw some compelling games and great moments, while we also saw a few schools that I condemned for scheduling FCS teams lose to said FCS teams. To those schools: you deserve it. Pansies.

With that out of the way, we should move on to what's going on this week. I'm building up the Road-Home Disparity Index as the season goes on, but it's still too early to post those since that's an end of the season metric, as are playoff points (though I might do a partial count as we get closer to the end of the year and I start doing early playoff seedings). So for now, I'm stuck doing just nonconference scheduling rankings. If you want to see last week's, you can find them here. The numbers in parentheses show this week's average score for the conference first, then their total average for the season to date. Rankings are done based on the season average. Here are this week's scores:

AFC North Preview

The NFL season commences tomorrow, and I'm down to the last preview post for the upcoming season. For this season, like last year, I'm hosting a group to pick games against the spread on ESPN.com. It's a fairly small group still, but if you're interested, it's free and should be pretty fun. I'll be posting picks weekly again, like last year.

Meanwhile, we have a look at a division that might be undergoing something of a changing of the guard. The defending champs are here, but another strong team might be in the midst of a downturn. We'll see how it goes.

1. Baltimore Ravens
Last year: 10-6 (1st), won Super Bowl XLVII
The defense got... shall we say... ravaged in the offseason. Ray Lewis announced his retirement before the Super Bowl run effective at the end of their season, and Ed Reed and Bernard Karmell Pollard both left. Terrell Suggs is left to lead this squad, though Haloti Ngata remains, and they took advantage of the Elvis Dumervil fax debacle to shore up their pass rush. Offensively, Joe Flacco has probably made a case to be up near the top 10 in NFL quarterbacks, though not in that "elite" group. Even so, he's got some good weapons in Ray Rice and Torrey Smith. They'll still be good, but whether or not they can repeat is up for debate.
2013 Prediction: 11-5

2. Cincinnati Bengals
Last year: 10-6 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card
We're onto Year 3 of Andy Dalton, who has proven himself to be a pretty serviceable NFL quarterback. He still has AJ Green to pair with, and the addition of Tyler Eifert should help the passing game a little bit. The running game is still pretty good with the Law Firm leading the way. Defensively though, this team is looking really good. I'm not 100% sold on the secondary, but the front seven is one of the better groups in the division. Semi-related note, my dad and Logan got to go to their training camp on a recent trip to Cincy, and Logan got autographs from a few players, as well as a quick photo op with Mike Nugent. Big ups to you, sir.
2013 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last year: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
This team always seems to get ravaged by injuries. Troy Polamalu isn't quite the same guy he used to be, and the loss of James Harrison will probably hurt a defense that was once again one of the best in the league last year. They'll probably still be one of the better units in the league, but the offense might have some issues. Big Ben seems to get hurt and miss at least a game a year, and his receiving corps takes a hit with Mike Wallace's departure. I'm not too sold on the running game this year either, with rookie Le'Veon Bell hurt and might miss a little time. They'll still be a tough team to beat, but their peak years are probably behind them.
2013 Prediction: 8-8

4. Cleveland Browns
Last year: 5-11, missed playoffs
I made fun of Brandon Weeden a lot last year, but with a full year under his belt mayeb he'll be a little better this year. I'm not really sold on his receivers, but Trent Richardson will be able to help alleviate some of that pressure on the ground. Defensively, I'm not sure what to make of these guys. Other than Joe Haden, I'm not sold on their secondary and the front seven are okay, but not great. They're still a ways away from contention. On an unrelated note, they did draft Garrett Gilkey, an offensive lineman from Chadron State I went to high school with way back in the day. From everything I've read, it seems like he's matured a lot from the kid I knew back then. He's held his own so far, and did in fact make the 53 man roster.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

Tomorrow I'll be busy; I have schedules to analyze from Week 2 of the college football season, and I also need to make my picks against the spread for the Pick 'Em contest. Hope you join me tomorrow for more football!

NFC North Preview

Hope your long weekend was enjoyable! For me, it was good to get a few days away from the chaos that is Southern California traffic. But I'm back at it today, as well as getting back into the NFL previewing game. Today I'm in my element as we look at the NFC North.

This division, along with the NFC West, might be the strongest divisions in the league from top to bottom. I don't think the North is as top heavy, but the floor is much higher.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC North

1. Green Bay Packers
Last year: 11-5 (1st), Lost in NFC Divisional Round
There's a pretty common truth in the NFL that if you have an elite quarterback, your team is going to be in a great position to make the playoffs. When you have the best quarterback in the league, I'd argue this is all but a certainty. So it is with Green Bay; as long as Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers are going to be all right. They lost two of their long time receivers in Donald Driver (retirement) and Greg Jennings (free agency), but still have some really good targets, and Ted Thompson added a ground game with Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin via the draft. Releasing Charles Woodson was tough, but Casey Heyward might be the successor to that nickel role. Really, as long as Dom Capers has learned how to defend against the read-option, this team is a strong contender for the Super Bowl.
2013 Prediction: 12-4

2. Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 10-6 (2nd), lost in NFC Wild Card
I named one Viking the 2012 Most Valuable Player, when really, another was the main reason for whether or not these guys won or lost. We learned last year that Adrian Peterson is a freak, but I don't think a freak to the extent of 2500 yards in a season. Ultimately it all depends on how well Christian Ponder has developed in his first couple years. He has some decent weapons now in rookie Cordarrelle Patterson and signee Greg Jennings (who I've lost some respect for for not shutting his mouth) to help keep defenses honest. On the other side of the ball, the big question is whether or not their secondary can stop anyone. Jared Allen will do his damage, but if he can't get to the quarterback, can the back seven contain the quarterbacks this division boasts?
2013 Prediction: 9-7

3. Chicago Bears
Last year: 10-6 (3rd), missed playoffs
A lot of people were surprised that the Bears fired longtime coach Lovie Smith after a really good regular season that just wasn't quite good enough, but maybe a change was due. Their defensive scheme will stay the same, but the retirement of Brian Urlacher leaves a big gap in the middle of their defense as well as in the locker room. This defense will still do its thing, especially the Master of the Ball Punch. What will make this team succeed or fail in 2013 though is how well Marc Trestman adjusts the offense. I've taken great joy in the last four or five years laughing as Jay Cutler throws passes straight to Green Bay defenders or DeAngelo Hall while trying to avoid getting sacked for the umpteenth time. The offensive line should be better this year, but can they help clear lanes for Matt Forte? And can Cutler utilize a passing game that doesn't revolve around, "Eff it, I'm throwing to a triple covered Brandon Marshall!"? They'll be a decent team, but I don't think the playoffs are in the cards this time.
2013 Prediction: 8-8

4. Detroit Lions
Last year: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
This was a team that had horrible luck in close games last year, so regression to the mean is due. Matthew Stafford now has a decent running back in Reggie Bush to help out the running game, which should help take a little pressure off his connection with Megatron. He also still has some other decent targets even with Titus Young being released. They'll score plenty of points; the question is whether or not they can keep other teams off the board. They lost defensive ends Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch in the offseason, and while there are decent pieces in place, I'm not sure how well they'll be able to help that interior combination of Suh and Fairley. The other issue remains that secondary. In this division, if you can't stop opponents' passing games, you will have problems.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

Seven down, one more to go. I'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at the AFC North, including the defending Super Bowl champs.

AFC West Preview

Happy Labor Day! I may be off from my day job today, but I'm still doing my writing on this holiday.

The NFL slate is almost upon us, and with just a few days left until the season begins, I need to hurry up and finish previewing all 32 NFL teams. Today we move to the AFC West. This is another top heavy division, but will they contain the AFC's second wild card? You'll have to read on to find out.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC East

1. Denver Broncos
Last year: 13-3 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
We have to remember: Denver was poised to host New England to set up yet another Brady/Manning playoff duel before Rahim Moore inexplicably forgot how to play pass defense up a touchdown in the closing moments of a game. They're going to have some issues to start the year, as Elvis Dumervil left due to a fax machine error and Von Miller is sitting out the first six games of the year for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Fortunately for the Broncos, the toughest game on that stretch of their schedule is the season opener against Baltimore. I think 4-2 in that stretch is reasonable, especially since there aren't any injury-based doubts about the guy they have lining up under center. Adding Wes Welker to their receiving corps doesn't hurt either.
2013 Prediction: 13-3

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Last year: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
Let's face it: the Chiefs were bad last year. They addressed a major hole by getting rid of Romeo Crennel and replacing him with Andy Reid, which is an upgrade as long as Reid doesn't say "Ermahgerd berbercurr!" and proceed to eat the entire metro out of house and home. They upgraded at quarterback to Alex Smith who looked really good again last year before he got hurt and was replaced by Colin Kaepernick in San Fran. He's got decent receivers, and having Jamaal Charles at running back is a good sign too. Their defense is decent as well, and while they may not make the playoffs, they're heading back in the right direction after a couple straight down years.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

3. San Diego Chargers
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The Chargers' window is closing. Phillip Rivers is a good but not great quarterback who can make mistakes at the least opportune time, and Antonio Gates is getting up in years. Ryan Matthews would be a good runner if he could stay healthy; he has yet to play a full season since coming into the league 3 years ago. Defensively, the additions of Dwight Freeney and Manti Te'o ought to make things interesting for a defense that wasn't too bad last year. I just don't think the offense has the firepower to do enough, and we can't blame Norv Turner this year. Oh well.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

4. Oakland Raiders
Last year: 4-12 (3rd, missed playoffs)
I think this is still a team trying to piece itself together. Matt Flynn, for the second straight year expected to be the starter, looks to be ceding the job to Terrelle Pryor, who has thrown all of 30 passes in his NFL career. They don't have much of a receiving corps, and Darren McFadden needs to stay healthy if this team can exceed expectations. Adding Charles Woodson back to the secondary might help that side of the ball a little bit, but I'm not sure how well he'll fit that role like he fit the nickel corner in Green Bay's defense perfectly.
2013 Projection: 4-12

Tomorrow I visit the division that likely most of my readership cares about in the NFC North. Granted, it's because I live in Chicago, but still. Should be good.

NFC West Preview

We're halfway through the NFL previews so far, with 4 more to go. I also still have one more wild card pick to reveal from each conference, so there's that. But today I'm focused on the NFC West.

This is a division that got a lot stronger in the past year or so as Seattle made a jump that I'm not sure a lot of people were totally expecting (I know I didn't) that made this division very top heavy, but St. Louis was no slouch, and Arizona was... well, not very good. Still, this is arguably the best division in football (I think the NFC North might be the best top to bottom, though the overall talent at the top here might outweigh it). Let's see how this goes.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC South

1. San Francisco 49ers
Last year: 11-4-1 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVII
They battled through a quarterback "controversy" to make the Super Bowl, then addressed it by shipping off Alex Smith in the offseason. A full year of Colin Kaepernick is a pretty terrifying prospect. The biggest question mark I have on offense for these guys though is their receiving corps. Michael Crabtree is out until at least November recovering from a torn Achilles, and Mario Manningham will start the year on the PUP list with a knee injury. Anquan Boldin will be good at one wideout spot, but I'm not sure about Kyle Williams on the other end. That defense though... if Justin Smith is healthy, Aldon Smith will be a factor again, and this defense can be feared. If Nnamdi Asomugha regains his form from his Oakland days... oh man.
2013 Prediction: 13-3

2. Seattle Seahawks
Last year: 10-6 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Sorry, I had to repress the urge to fix their record. I'm not still bitter or anything... Anyway, as long as Russell Wilson avoids the Sophomore Slump, offensively these guys will be fine. Marshawn Lynch is still one of the better backs in the league, and the receiving corps isn't bad. If Percy Harvin can play for any of 2013, these guys could end up in New Jersey for the Super Bowl pretty easily.
2013 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card

3. St. Louis Rams
Last year: 7-8-1 (3rd), missed playoffs
The departure of longtime running back Steven Jackson leaves a hole in that aspect of the Rams' game, which could pose some problems, but the passing game shouldn't be bad with some new weapons added via the draft in Tavon Austin to give Sam Bradford someone to throw to. Alec Ogletree will certainly help the defense out, so while they may not end up in the playoffs, they're certainly not a bad team. They just happen to be in the wrong division at the wrong time.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

4. Arizona Cardinals
Last year: 5-11, missed playoffs
Arizona addressed one of their most pressing needs in the offseason in getting Carson Palmer to be their field general, which should make Larry Fitzgerald a little happier. They tried to address their biggest need via the draft though in picking Jonathan Cooper 7th overall, but he broke his leg and will likely be gone for the year. Palmer might be lucky to survive back there. If there's any redeeming quality about this team though, it's their defense. Teams found it hard to throw on them last year, and adding Tyrann Mathieu will provide an interesting spark either defensively or on special teams, assuming continues to stay out of trouble.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

Even though tomorrow is a holiday, based on the schedule I'll have another preview up, this time on the AFC West.