The regular season is finally over and we're onto what are essentially play-in games for the College Football Playoff, but also for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, based off the system proposed in the book pictured here. As I'd hoped, I was able to track results over the course of the entire season and logged my metrics here. I've also, over the past couple weeks, been looking at computer rankings to prepare myself. I haven't officially built a mock bracket yet, but I at least kind of know where I'm going. I just want to get it in writing before the games are played, with the knowledge that computer rankings may change and with new factors getting added that things may end up changing.
But the point of this post, as in years prior, is to look at the upcoming games to determine automatic bids. Most of these are pretty straightforward. One piece I am adding in each entry this year is how at large odds look for each conference. The exact selection method will be explained next week when I build the bracket.
American Athletic
Cincinnati (10-2) @ Memphis (11-1), 12/8 2:30pm CT
Winner receives the American Athletic Automatic Bid.
Both Cincinnati and Memphis have decent at large credentials; the loser will be on the bubble for an at large bid. Navy is a bubble-out team despite still having the game against Army on its schedule, with UCF as a long shot.
ACC
Virginia (9-3) vs Clemson (12-0), 12/8 6:30pm CT
Winner receives the ACC Automatic Bid.
Clemson should be a lock for the field of 16. Virginia is a long shot and likely needs the automatic bid to get in. With Virginia Tech ineligible this year due to playing two FCS teams, Wake Forest is next in line as an extreme long shot.
Big Ten
Ohio State (12-0) vs Wisconsin (10-2), 12/8 7pm CT
Winner receives the Big Ten Automatic Bid.
Ohio State is serving the first of its two year at large suspension for the Zach Smith situation last year; they require the automatic bid to make the playoffs. Assuming they do, Wisconsin will likely receive an at large bid. Minnesota is a bubble-out team, Michigan is a long shot, as is Iowa.
Big 12
Baylor (11-1) vs Oklahoma (11-1), 12/8 11am CT
Oklahoma receives the Big 12's Automatic Bid due to Baylor's permanent ban from the Death to the BCS Playoffs.
I guess this was the one team already locked into the field. I mentioned at the beginning of the year that due to Baylor's coverup of sexual assault by members of the football program years ago, they received the Penn State punishment and are permanently banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. This is the third time in four years I've had a conference championship game not determine an automatic bid due to a suspension or a ban, but I stand by it. In terms of at large bids, Kansas State followed by Oklahoma State would be the teams at the table, but both are probably out, making the Big 12 a one-bid league.
Conference USA
UAB (9-3) @ Florida Atlantic (9-3), 12/8 12:30pm CT
Winner receives the Conference USA Automatic Bid.
This is likely a one-bid league. The loser of this game will be a long shot to get an at large bid, followed by likely outs for Louisiana Tech, Marshall, and Western Kentucky.
Independents
No games
No Automatic Bid given.
At 10-2, Notre Dame will be at the table when we begin picking at large teams. They are likely in the field with this in mind. BYU would be next, but at 7-5 they are virtually out.
MAC
Miami (Ohio) (7-5) vs Central Michigan (8-4), 12/8 11am CT
Winner receives the MAC Automatic Bid.
This is likely a one-bid league. The loser of this game will be an extreme long shot to get an at large bid, with Western Michigan coming in behind them.
Mountain West
Hawaii (9-4) @ Boise State (11-1), 12/8 3pm CT
Winner receives the Mountain West Automatic Bid.
Boise State would be a bubble team with a loss, while Hawaii is blocked by Air Force and possibly San Diego State for an at large. Air Force is a bubble-out team, while either Hawaii or San Diego State are long shots.
Pac 12
Utah (11-1) vs Oregon (10-2), 12/7 7pm CT
Winner receives the Pac 12 Automatic Bid.
Both teams have good at large credentials; the loser would be a bubble team. USC would be next as a long shot.
SEC
Georgia (11-1) vs LSU (12-0), 12/8 3pm CT
Winner receives the SEC Automatic Bid.
Both teams are safely in the playoffs regardless of outcome. Auburn is next on the bubble, with Alabama possibly a bubble-out team in this scenario. Florida is ineligible due to playing two FCS teams, meaning either Texas A&M or Tennessee would be next as an extreme long shot.
Sun Belt
Louisiana (10-2) @ Appalachian State (11-1), 12/8 11am CT
Winner receives the Sun Belt Automatic Bid.
The loser of this game will be a bubble-out team. Arkansas State, the likely next team up, is an extreme long shot.
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