Thursday, October 31, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

During the noon slate on Sunday, we will officially hit the halfway point of the 2019 NFL season. But with a little over half the season to go, the race is starting to heat up a little bit as the coalition continues its quest to pick NFL games!

I'd have to go back and look, but I think collectively this was the best week we've ever had as a group; going 4-0 in consensus games probably for the first time ever helps with that. But the tiers are starting to look a little closer together even though Adam and I still have a decent lead on the rest of the group. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Remember that Aiden forgot to get some picks in on ESPN, but we credited him with five extra wins from that week since he didn't know what had happened.

There is no longer a tie atop the group though, as Adam took three of the five disputed games last week and Geoffy took two of three to win the week; this gives Adam a one game lead again and Geoffy has a one game lead on Jim for third place, but he's five back of me for second.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just three games out of 14. Let's get to it!

Thursday, October 24, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

After accelerating things for the past couple weeks, the coalition is back on its normal schedule as we resume our quest to pick games against the spread!

Groupthink prevailed to an extent last week, and it ended up creating a deadlock: Adam took two of our three disputed games to move back into a tie for first as my uncontested lead lasted all of four days. He was happy to pull back into a tie for first, but wasn't happy with how the spread gods said no to what he thought were solid picks.

What I found funny was, after confirming that fact with Adam on Sunday afternoon, Joe texted that he would be right up there with us... if you consider ten games out "right up there." Now I refuse to count him out; I wasn't looking great going into Thanksgiving last year, then had the best week in contest history to get right back into contention. But leapfrogging four people and picking up ten games is a tall order, even with more than half the season still to go. It doesn't help that Joe generally... doesn't go hero; over the past 24 weeks of the contest, he has made exactly two hero picks. And it's those hero picks that have really helped Adam be in the tie for first, with an 8-4 record in those games, best in the group (technically tied with a 2-1 Geoffrey, but larger sample size wins). I'm riding a 10-2 mark in games where the group has split evenly on who we've picked to my spot at the top with Adam. You can view a full breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other here.

You will also notice that, if you look at the record on here as well as on that spreadsheet, there's a major discrepancy with our ESPN standings. You may remember last week that Aiden forgot to pick every game other than the Thursday night contest in Week 6. In the interest of fair play combined with him not having any clue how those games played out, Adam got his picks for that week and found that he retroactively went 5-9. I've taken out the note about Aiden forgetting from last week's post and credited him the five points ESPN doesn't have logged for him.

I also got a little confused in prepping stuff for this week. Talking with Adam when he was in town last week, he's going to be on vacation one week in December where I'll need a backup for him. I mistook that for being this week and lined up Geoffrey Clark as a backup. Since I asked him to go through the effort I'll include his picks for this week as well, and hopefully he'll be able to join me again in December. Either way, I promise jabs about Jeff Blauser will be kept to a minimum.

This week Adam and I disagree on just five games out of 15; Geoffy and I only dispute three. Let's get to it!

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 7

We're well into October now as the coalition continues its quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

We saw a little bit of tier evolution in Week 6, as well as a changing of the guard. The big issue, and something that happened last year as well, was that Aiden missed the deadline for a bunch of picks and thus "officially" went 0-14 last week, but for the purposes of record keeping, it doesn't go down as the worst week ever.

Meanwhile, up in that upper tier, I swiped six of eight disputed games from Adam to take over the group lead. It's a tenuous one game advantage, and it may not last, but I will enjoy it while I can. Adam apparently turned into Matt Nagy, claiming he got too cute last week and saw it blow up in his face. You can view the full group standings here, and how the entire group has picked in relation to each other here.

This week, the disparities fall mostly by the wayside and groupthink prevails as Adam and I only disagree on three games out of 14. Let's get to it!

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 6

Now a little ways past the quarter pole, the coalition chugs along as we continue our quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

At this point, the group seems to be fully separated into tiers. It's your featured columnists... and everybody else a sizable chunk behind us. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Suffice it to say that, based on the tiers, looking at frequency and success of hero picks have been one of the reasons why Adam and I have found a little separation.

I buried the lede a little bit here from last week. Adam and I tied the record for number of disputed games with a dozen last week; the only other time that happened was back in 2016 (thanks to Adam for doing the research), but that was with a full 16 game slate. I'd argue disputing 12 out of 15 is the tiebreaker. Anyway, with that much disparity, I hinted that we may see a flip in the standings; go figure we split the disputed games evenly. That means Adam's three game lead over me holds, but to quote Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."

This week, Adam and I disagree on eight games out of 14. Let's get to it!

Thursday, October 3, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

With the conclusion of tonight's game, we will hit the quarter pole of the 2019 NFL season. And with that thought in mind, the coalition works its way into its fifth week of work!

The early slate was not kind to much of the group, but we all rebounded fairly well in the late afternoon slate and beyond. Adam and I, for our part, split our eight disputed games as he retains his three game column and group lead. We're starting to separate ourselves from the pack a little bit, though Week 4 saw a surge from Aiden to create a little bunch at the bottom of the group. You can view the full group standings here, and a comparison to how we've all picked compared to each other here.

We have another bye this week, so of the 15 tilts on the slate, Adam and I disagree on a record 12 of them. Needless to say... some major changes in the standings could be forthcoming. Let's get to the picks!