Wednesday, August 31, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 16 Part 1

Only 16 teams remain as we continue our quest to find the greatest NBA Champion of all time. I can say that now because, after the Round of 32, all ABA teams have been eliminated.

We had five upsets in that first round, including a pair of sweeps by lower seeds that kind of threw things into chaos. Overall, eight of the 16 series in the Round of 32 were ended in four games, three needed a fifth game to finish, four were decided in six games, and only one needed to go the distance.

The series get tougher here, and the number of sweeps are likely to go down as we whittle our way down to the elite of the elite. Four series will get simulated out today, though in reality they could potentially still be playing a couple days after this. It's just much easier to simulate a series in one go.

So like the last round, these series are all best of seven played ina  2-2-1-1-1 format. Home court advantage goes to the higher seed based on Group Play placing. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

2016 NFC North Preview

I've got a busy few mornings coming up. We're about a week away from the start of the 2016 NFL season, and I have eight divisions I need to do previews for.

In an annual tradition, I've been predicting outcomes of upcoming seasons for a few years now, going division by division to pick out win totals for every NFL team. Now, admittedly, I haven't paid as much attention to what's gone on this offseason, so I'm not as confident as I normally am with predictions. Of course, I end up being wrong half the time, so what else is new.

Like in prior years, I alternate conferences and go kind of in a circle through the four geographical regions of divisions, ending with the division hosting the defending champ. With the circle being what it is, I am going to start in my home division with the NFC North. Tomorrow I'll switch over to the AFC North, then spin my way clockwise to the East, South, and finally, the West.

Before I get to the preview, I do want to make a shameless plug. For the fifth straight season, I will be picking NFL games against the spread, and this will be my third year picking against Adam Quinn, who won last year's pool. If you want to make us look like a bunch of dopes, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Let's start predicting.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

The college football season is already underway with last week's Cal-Hawaii game over in Australia. The season really gets underway this week though, as almost everyone opens their season over the next few days.

This is the first of a series of weekly posts that, if you remember how this has worked in prior years, should be familiar. I am going through the entire college football schedule at the FBS level and assigning a score to each team for their non-conference schedule. Most weeks, this will result in a score of zero, but for the three or four non-conference games each team has, they'll get a score between -1 and 3. The exact criteria can be found in the season introductory post.

The purpose of this weekly series is to go by conference and find out which one is doing the best job of scheduling outside of conference boundaries. If it's anything like in years past, the Group of Five conference will be far ahead of the Power Five conferences for a variety of reasons. That may not be apparent through one week of games, though.

So below, you will see the first weekly rankings. Each conference includes its average NCSS score for the week.


Tuesday, August 23, 2016

College Football: New Year, Same Corruption

I've been writing on Confessions of a Sportscaster for almost five years now. And for the fifth straight season, I am advocating for change at the highest level of college football. Even though, during that time, much has changed, there are still more changes that need to be made.

If you want to save yourself some time and see the back story behind a fair amount of this, you can go back and read last year's introduction post. But in a nutshell, I'm against the rampant elitism that permeates college football and creates a holier than thou culture among the Power Five conferences. Until the day they decide to break off and form their own highest level of football, I'm going to call out the bias against the rest of the schools at the FBS level who aren't given a chance to compete at the truly highest level. We can thank Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan for my views being what they are.

So over the course of the college football season, I keep track of what's going on, primarily scheduling and results, to try and build a not only more equitable playoff system, but a more fun one as well. The aforementioned authors built a new playoff system that I continue to advocate for: 16 teams, made up of the ten conference champions and six at large teams, seeded 1-16 with the first three rounds of games being played on the campus of the higher seed. It creates much more intrigue for the entirety of college football for the entire season and makes the regular season more meaningful, contrary to the argument of the powers that be, who have proven over the years that for some, the regular season means nothing.

I build and seed this playoff field based on five metrics and a degree of the Eye Test where possible.

  1. Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS)
    This was my first metric, and even though it's not perfect, I still like to use it as a point against the elitism perpetuated by the powers that be. Every team gets a score from week to week that sums up at the end of the season to judge the general toughness of a non-conference schedule without looking at records. To a degree, I continue the elitism by giving higher scores to playing teams from a Power conference (but these schools are generally better), but I also blast the schools who play an FCS team. It's a necessary evil to the schedule, and one that I'm more willing to forgive at the beginning of the season than I am for the handful of SEC and ACC schools that unconscionably do this in the second to last week of the regular season. Here's the breakdown of scoring by week.
    - -1 point for playing an FCS team at home (since God forbid someone like Michigan or Florida actually travel to one of these schools)
    - 0 points for a bye week or playing an in-conference game (this will be the most common score for most teams on a weekly basis)
    - 1 point for playing an FBS team from a non-"Power conference" at home or at a neutral site
    - 2 points for playing an FBS team from a non- "Power conference" on the road or an FBS team for a "Power conference" at home or at a neutral site
    - 3 points for playing an FBS team from a "Power conference" on the road
    *NOTE: "Power conferences" are the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Pac 12.
  2. First Degree Playoff Points (PP1)
    This is a metric I basically stole from the IHSA. If you have two 10-2 teams, but one of them beat a bunch of 6-6, 7-5, and 8-4 teams, that's a better resume than the other who beat a bunch of 3-9 and 4-8 teams. PP1 measures the IHSA's "Combined Wins of Defeated Opponents" measurement and uses that to help determine how good a team was. It can be flawed in that losses don't impact this metric in any capacity, which means a loss to a 2-10 team is measured the same as a loss to a 12-0 team. It's something I'm considering tweaking. We'll see. One other important note with this metric is that wins against FCS opponents are worth no points.
  3. Second Degree Playoff Points (PP2)
    This builds off the prior metric, and is a piece I added a couple years ago. PP2 averages the Playoff Points of defeated teams (so a three win team gets the average of the three teams they beat, while a nine win team gets the average of their nine vanquished foes factored in). This is to help balance out the previous metric and see how good the defeated teams really are. Most years, this will mean the national leaders in this metric will be teams that aren't that good but beat a really good opponent to boost their number. Like PP1, a score of zero is given for defeating an FCS opponent, which will bring down the average.
  4. Rothman Computer Rankings (ROTH)
    The late David Rothman created a formula to rank college football teams, similar to the methods used to help calculate the old BCS standings. The difference is that Rothman wanted to include margin of victory, figuring it was important to help differentiate between teams. The powers that were in the BCS thought it was "unsportsmanlike" to reward running up the score, never mind that a cap could be placed on margin of victory to minimize this. Rothman's ranking was rejected by the BCS, but he continued to rank teams on his own and made his formula public domain before his death. A UCLA faculty member uses this formula and compiles the rankings. This is to help balance out any bias I may have.
  5. Sagarin Computer Rankings (SAG)
    A similar tale to above, Sagarin did actually have a computer ranking used by the BCS that took margin of victory out of the equation, but he did still calculate rankings with that factor included. Using his "Final" rating, we come up with that metric, and I use that again to help factor out any bias I may have.
Using these five metrics, I build out that 16 team playoff field, with a few mock brackets as the season goes along to get a little practice in and gauge where teams are at, even though several teams end up falling out as more mocks go by. That last one is the important one though, as I use that one following all the conference title games to simulate a 16 team playoff. It's resulted in some counter-to-reality scenarios (one year, Michigan State beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl, but the Cardinal won the Death to the BCS Championship while the Spartans got upset in Round 1), but it's also produced the same national champion as reality a couple of times (Alabama's titles last year and in 2012).

Every week, I will have two or three posts with the measurements of each of these metrics sorted by conference and, when I'm not excluding any undefeated teams, mock brackets for each week. In the interest of transparency, I am also including my measurements on a publicly available Google Sheet. I will include the link with every post while also putting it on the sidebar of Confessions of a Sportscaster as well as on the COAS Tournaments Page.

One final thing: I do take differing stances on disqualifications for the Death to the BCS Playoffs than the NCAA and the Selection Committee for the College Football Playoff do. So far it has yet to impact a playoff berth, though we did come close last year. The main way for a team to be disqualified from contention for the Death to the BCS Playoffs is by playing two games against FCS competition. I understand one game as a tuneup that also funds the FCS program a little bit, even though I'm generally against the games counting and highly against them counting late in the season. Playing two, unless there's an emergency cancellation of a game and playing a second FCS team is the only way to avoid it, eliminates a team from contention.

I also want to be up front about two disqualifications before the season even starts. One of them is a stance you will know well if you are a longtime reader of Confessions of a Sportscaster: Penn State, due to their prioritizing of the well-being of the football program over the well-being of children, now apparently dating as far back as the mid-70s, is permanently banned from postseason play here. They shouldn't even have a football program, but that's another topic for another day. Due to similar circumstances surrounding sexual assaults and the lack of serious action taken by officials at Baylor, they are also banned from the Death to the BCS Playoffs. Any banned teams will still have metrics measured for the entire season, but will not be considered as part of the field of 16.

The season is kicking off on Friday, with Hawaii and California playing a game in Sydney, Australia. Hawaii is technically playing two games in Week 1, as they follow that game up a week later with a trip to Michigan. I'm figuring out how to include both of those games in their NCSS and Playoff Points scores without completely rebuilding my spreadsheet. I'll figure that out. With the rest of the nation starting as early as September 1st, I'll be back next week with a first look at NCSS rankings.

Monday, August 22, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Championship

61 games in the Consolation Bracket are in the books, and we have narrowed the field down from 32 teams to only two.

In one corner, we have a team that went 10-6 in Group Play, but finished in fifth place in a ridiculously tough group. They've gotten revenge by winning five games in a row by an average of over 23 points to make it to this stage and show that maybe, just maybe, they belonged in the other postseason bracket.

On the other side, we have a team that finished Group Play at 8-8 in fifth place in their group. They won their first two matchups before falling at home in the third round. They've followed that up with five straight wins, including the last two on the road to serve as a worthy opponent of our top overall seed.

Our winner's bracket representative, the '95 Rockets, will get home court advantage as a privilege of running the table over the '93 Bulls, who had to play three extra games to reach this point. Today's simulation is provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play!


Sunday, August 21, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 14

Today, we get a second "semifinal" to determine our championship matchup in the tournament's Consolation Bracket.

Two weeks ago, we had the 32 teams that finished anywhere from fifth through eighth place in their Group Play groups enter this double elimination tournament. We're down to three teams now, as we have to determine who gets a shot at the top overall seed in this bracket.

Home court advantage goes to the team with the better record in Group Play because of the seeding tie. Today's simulation is provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some basketball and set up a title game.


Saturday, August 20, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 13

Another day, another single game schedule as the Consolation Bracket of the NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions draws closer to its conclusion.

The Elimination Stage is in full swing as we're down to the Round of 16, but the Consolation Bracket is nearing its end. Just three teams remain, and two of them still have perfect records.

That changes today as we play the Semifinal of the Consolation Bracket. Our top two teams do battle for a berth in the Consolation Championship game. Home court goes to the top seed based on the better record in Group Play. Today's simulation is provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!


Friday, August 19, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 12

We're back to our normal posting times for the Consolation Bracket now that the Round of 32 over in the Elimination Stage is settled. Those games may technically still be going on per the timeline, but I wanted to get all the series done in a couple bigger batches to be done with it. We'll have the Round of 16 results in a couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the Consolation Bracket is nearing completion. Only four teams remain alive: the top two seeds are preparing for a showdown in Houston tomorrow. Meanwhile, we're back in Los Angeles today for what is technically the quarterfinals of the loser's bracket. They get the tiebreaker thanks to record over their guests. Today's simulation is provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's go play some basketball.


Thursday, August 18, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 32 Part 4

Just four more series remain in the Round of 32 as we continue the NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions!

Yesterday unveiled four matchups for the next round, and today we unveil the next four. Many of these early series have gone quickly, with only one series going the distance and a multitude of sweeps thus far. I imagine things will get more intense the deeper we go, though.

So once again for today's matchups, these are best of seven series that will be played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format with home court advantage going to the higher seeded team based on finish in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's head courtside.


2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 11

Today is our last day of noon results getting published due to the Elimination Stage. It's still an important batch of results going foward.

After today, only four teams will remain in the Consolation Bracket, and with that, we will be down to just a single game per day. At home, we have a pair of teams that finished in fifth place in their respective groups, one of whom lost in the Consolation Bracket's second round, and another who lost in the third round. They welcome in a pair of sixth place teams who won their first three games and fell at the hands of the top two seeds in the Bracket. The winners advance to play each other; the losers go home.

Home court is being given to those two fifth place teams based on their fifth place finish in Group Play, which is the primary factor in seeding teams for this tournament. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to the action!


Wednesday, August 17, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 32 Part 3

Earlier today, we played the quarterfinals of the winner's bracket over in the Consolation Bracket. Only six teams remain in that portion of the tournament fighting for a little glory after missing out on the big prize. That prize is being fought for as we speak.

We're continuing with the Round of 32 today. While these games would still be going on in reality, to make things easier I'm simulating a few series at a time to lessen the load and ultimately set up the Round of 16 that will play out starting next week.

Over the last two days I've played out half of the Round of 32 matchups, but have set it up so none of the next round's matchups are set. Four of them will be determined today with the results of today's simulations. Home court advantage in these four series is based on seeding, which is based on placing in Group Play, and the series will be played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!


2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 10

Over in the Elimination Stage, we're down to 24 teams competing for the ultimate prize, though the round is still technically going and some of the teams that are eliminated may not be officially eliminated based on the timeline depending on the length of the series. This is the weirdness that arises from running the Tournament of Champions in this way, but it makes simulating games much easier to do a full series at a time.

Anyway, in the meantime the Consolation Bracket has narrowed its field of 32 teams down to six. Only two teams remain that have a loss, though that number will double today because we return to the winner's bracket for the Quarterfinals.

Home court advantage in this round, like all rounds leading up to now, are decided by seeding based on placing in Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to the action.


Tuesday, August 16, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 32 Part 2

Trying to play through 16 series all at once is too much. As such, I'm working through four series at a time to narrow down the field of the NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions.

Yesterday saw the beginning of results for the Round of 32. In reality, these games would be getting played over the span of last week and this week, but to save time, I'm simulating a few whole series at a time and posting them this week. Sweeps would, in all likelihood, be close to, if not done by now, while the full seven game series would end up going through Sunday before we start up the Round of 16 next week.

Anyway, in this round we're playing best-of-seven series in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, with home court advantage going to the team with the higher seed based on Group Play finish. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com.

Without further ado, let's play some basketball!

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 9

We're getting down to the nitty gritty of the consolation bracket. An overwhelming majority of the games are complete, and from here on out we're playing a maximum of two games a day until we narrow down the field even more.

Only eight teams remain in this field, with our four teams remaining in the winner's bracket getting one more day of rest before playing the quarterfinals. Later today, I'll have the second batch of Round of 32 results from over in the Elimination Stage.

Today's schedule over in this bracket features the continuation of the loser's bracket with a pair of matchups involving yesterday's winners. Home court advantage is determined by seeding based on group placing, and in the event of a tie in this fashion, record in Group Play breaks that, followed by point differential. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's go play some basketball.


Monday, August 15, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Round of 32 Part 1

The NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions is in full swing. I've done a week's worth of consolation games and have narrowed that field down from 32 teams to eight. But while all of this has been going on, the top 32 teams have also been hard at work.

The Elimination Stage field has been unveiled, and we're now working to narrow that field down to find the greatest NBA or ABA Champion of all time. All of the teams playing in this series of posts finished in the top four of their respective double round robin groups, and have been seeded accordingly, then further seeded based on record and point differential. Those seeds based on Group Play placing will be the primary factor in determining home court advantage, followed by those aforementioned factors.

It's important to note though that from here, the battles get tougher. This part of the tournament isn't just a one-off; this is a best-of-seven series played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com.

So without further ado, let's play out a few of these series.

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 8

We're into our second week of consolation basketball in this summer's Tournament of Champions. I'm also back from a wonderful vacation to South Haven, Michigan for the annual Blueberry Festival with renewed energy for the tournament. The 32 teams we entered this phase of games with have been narrowed down to 12, and today we lose four more.

You'll notice that this post went live a couple hours ahead of when I have been posting these in the past week. Timeline-wise, we're getting towards the end of the Round of 32 over in the Elimination Round, and I will have results from four of those series later today.

As for today's schedule, we're back to the loser's bracket. Yesterday's four losers are back in action today, with wins resulting in a stretch of three straight days playing, but such is what happens when you lose. Home court advantage is going to the teams that are higher seeded based on Group Play finish. Today's winners will end up playing each other tomorrow. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's head courtside.


Sunday, August 14, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 7

We're now officially a week into the Consolation Bracket of this year's NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions. The 32 teams that weren't quite good enough to make the Elimination Stage have been whittled down to 12, and they continue their fight today.

After a couple days of rest, the eight teams that have won their first two games are back on the court today to continue their quests at playing the minimum number of games to win the consolation title.

So for these four games, the results actually played out such that tiebreakers aren't needed for this round. Home court advantage goes to the higher seeded team, which is based on placing in groups from Group Play. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Here's our results.


Saturday, August 13, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 6

Happy Saturday! While I am still on vacation, I did get an opportunity to have this weekend's games get simulated and played while I'm out of town.

The bulk of the work is complete at this point; this past week every day saw eight games get played. From here on out, we're down to four at most, but even that total is going down, as the last four or five days will only need one game a day to be played.

Today's schedule is a continuation of the loser's bracket, with the eight teams that won yesterday all playing again. I feel kind of bad, because for a few teams, they are playing back-to-back-to-back, but they would get a rest after today, and this could have been avoided with a win back on Thursday for them.

Home court advantage for today's games is decided primarily by seeding based on Group Play finish, with any ties in seeds being broken first by Group Play record, then by point differential. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it.


Friday, August 12, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 5

Happy Friday! The NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions is rolling on even though my wife and I are taking a much-needed vacation this weekend.

We're halfway through the Consolation Bracket portion of the tournament. While the Elimination Stage is playing on amongst the top 32 teams, I'm not sharing any results until next week due to volume. In the meantime, I'm keeping up with this project.

24 teams still remain, with eight of those teams seeing their final action today since we're back into the loser's bracket. Eight of these teams won on Wednesday to avoid elimination and face another such game today. Their opponents all lost yesterday and have to turn around and get ready to face elimination in today's contests.

Home court advantage once again is going to the higher seeds based on group finishes, though there are some same seeds matching up today. In those cases, Group Play records are the primary tiebreaker, followed by point differential. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 4

Welcome back to the 2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions! Yesterday, we eliminated another eight teams from play in our consolation bracket while the top 32 teams continue their fight for the Championship of Champions. I will have more about those results coming up next week.

For now, I'm continuing to focus on the consolation bracket. Today's schedule is between the 16 teams that won on Monday and Tuesday to minimize the number of games they would have to play. The teams that win will advance to the third round of the winner's bracket. The losers, meanwhile, drop into the loser's bracket and will have to turn around and play again tomorrow against yesterday's winners.

As has been the case the past three days, home court advantage goes to the higher seed based on group play placing. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play!


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 3

Welcome back to the NBA Tournament of Champions! In the simulated world, the top 32 teams are all playing their first round matchups right now, but I will go series by series with those next week. For now, I have a smaller portion of the tournament to run.

The Consolation Bracket is 16 games in and destinies have diverged. The 16 teams that lost are all back in action today down in the loser's bracket. The teams that lose today will all be eliminated. The winners, meanwhile, will stay alive and have a day off to await their next opponents.

As with the first two days, higher seeds get home court advantage for this game. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Time to play.


Tuesday, August 9, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 2

We still have 32 teams standing in the new consolation bracket, but eight teams are already at a disadvantage, with another loss officially ending their summer of additional basketball. That doesn't come until tomorrow though, because we still have to determine the matchups.

I split the first round of games in half just to minimize the amount of work for each day, but also because Boston and Los Angeles each trying to host something like five games on a single day would have been insane. This broke things up a little bit and made it a little easier.

So as a refresher, the consolation bracket is a double elimination tournament, where the losers go into a loser bracket where it becomes win or go home with fewer off days, while teams that stay in the winner's bracket get more rest and have to play fewer times en route to a consolation title.

So here is the second batch of our first round games. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it.


Monday, August 8, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Day 1

We're well into the month of August, and now I'm working on a spur of the moment subproject as a part of this tournament.

Yesterday, I unveiled the bracket of 32 teams who will be playing to earn the title of Champion of Champions. Those games are beginning today, but I'm not posting anything about those games until next week to cover every series as a whole rather than just do games one at a time.

In the meantime, I am taking the teams that finished anywhere from fifth through eighth in their respective groups over the past month-plus and having them play in a double elimination consolation tournament. I unveiled that field on Saturday, and today the games begin for this round.

I've got these games spread out so that teams in the winner bracket get more benefit from a bye week than the teams that end up in the loser bracket as an incentive to win. Teams are seeded 5-8 based on group finish, and any ties from there go to record, then point differential from group play, and if needed (which it wasn't), average seeding of the other teams from their group. These seedings will determine home court advantage for most of the tournament unless we get a Game 63 winner-take-all game.

So for the first two days, I am just playing the opening round of games, splitting the 16 matchups into two halves. Half of the teams will play today, with no matchups in the next round being decided. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some basketball!


Sunday, August 7, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Elimination Stage Reveal

36 days. 576 games. 72 teams entered at the beginning of July. Now we are into the month of August, and the field has been suitably narrowed.

We took eight groups of nine teams and have taken the top four out of each group. The next four from each group are all playing in the Consolation Bracket over the next couple of weeks. But before we get to a championship bracket reveal, I wanted to break down the field a little bit, kind of like we did last year.

I'm going to start with a look at a stat involving our newly invited guests for this year's tournament and see how the ABA champions handled themselves.
  • NBA Teams: 30
  • ABA Teams: 2
This was the stat I was most curious about coming in. I almost put all the ABA teams in their own group, but decided I didn't want to give them four automatic berths and shaft the NBA champions. Everyone had a, for all intents and purposes, equal shot at making the Elimination Stage.Kind of amazingly, our champion of the ABA Preseeding Tournament wasn't one of the two teams that advanced. Our second place team, however, did, as did our fifth place team. The rest generally finished closer to the bottom.

Here's more of a fun look, and one I did last year of a decade by decade look at our advancing teams.
  • 50's Teams: 0
  • 60's Teams: 1
  • 70's Teams: 6
  • 80's Teams: 7
  • 90's Teams: 5
  • 00's Teams: 7
  • 10's Teams: 6
This has been a continuing debate since I ran my first tournament back in 2013. My dad, a regular reader of Confessions of a Sportscaster, noted that after the first round of that tournament, roughly 75 percent of the more recent teams in each matchup wound up advancing. That pattern held firm for the rest of the tournament, and was a little further below that mark going into last year's Elimination Round, but not by a statistically significant margin. A majority of the field this year came from 1990 or later, with all but seven appearing from 1980 onward. That meets up with the rough halfway point in our timeline and maintains that 75 percent average.

This next look involves records that made the Elimination Stage.
  • 16-0 Record: 0
  • 15-1 Record: 0
  • 14-2 Record: 3 (3 #1 seeds)
  • 13-3 Record: 3 (2 #1 seeds, 1 #2 seed)
  • 12-4 Record: 6 (3 #1 seeds, 2 #2 seeds, 1 #3 seed)
  • 11-5 Record: 8 (4 #2 seeds, 3 #3 seeds, 1 #4 seed)
  • 10-6 Record: 5 (1 #2 seed. 2 #3 seeds, 2 #4 seeds; 1 10-6 team eliminated)
  • 9-7 Record: 4 (1 #3 seed, 3 #4 seeds; 1 9-7 team eliminated)
  • 8-8 Record: 2 (1 #3 seed, 1 #4 seed; 7 8-8 teams eliminated)
  • 7-9 Record: 1 (1 #4 seed; 7 7-9 teams eliminated)
The purpose here is twofold. First and foremost, this is to see a breakdown of how the seedings are getting distributed. This is also a dry run experiment for the upcoming CCIW basketball season, where with the addition of Carroll University there are nine teams now, and I have eight sample schedules to get a good glimpse at how many wins would be needed to break into the conference tournament and how many it would take to win the regular season conference title. Looking at the numbers, it went slighly unexpectedly. I figured the group winning records would be in the 12-4, 13-3, 14-2 neighborhood since the odds of running the table just aren't that likely. We had the one group where the top two teams both finished 13-3. The most jarring thing was having a group with five teams topping 10 wins. I figured 10-6 would be a lock to advance, and we had one team that didn't make it. I debated about doing an NHL-style postseason where the top three in each group would advance, followed by the next eight-best records. This would have resulted in pulling in our eliminated 10-6 and 9-7 teams to join a few of the fourth place teams, ending with an eight-way tie for the final two spots, which based on our established tiebreakers would have pulled an additional two eliminated teams into the field of 32.

Now, you'll notice that these seeds are only listed 1-4. I'm building the Elimination Stage bracket almost exactly the same way I did last year. Our 32 team bracket is being broken up into eight four-team pods, with each pod getting a first place, second place, third place, and fourth place team. Last year, I largely built the bracket randomly except for ordering the group winners to set up the bracket such that the top seeds would play in a normal seeded bracket order. This year, I'm changing that and ordering every team. All of the group winners will be ordered 1-8, then the #2 seeds, and so on to ultimately build a field seeded 1-32, but the only seeds that matter will be 1-4. This will determine home court advantage exclusively for the first two rounds, then be the primary factor for determining home court in the quarterfinals onward. In the event of a tie (e.g. two group winners playing each other), point differential will break the tie. That should settle them all, but in the event it doesn't, my third tiebreaker will be average seed of the three other teams from the group. I doubt I'll need it, but I'd rather have the tiebreaker.

So you've seen a bit of a preview of how the bracket is going to unfold, but here is our tournament field, followed by the bracket.


Saturday, August 6, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Consolation Bracket Reveal

You didn't think I could just do half-measure with this Tournament of Champions, did you?

Yesterday, we concluded Group Play in this year's Tournament. We started the month of July with 72 teams, and we've now narrowed that field down to 32 teams.

With about two weeks left in the tournament, I started to look at the standings, and realized that I was going to, to some degree, end up screwing over some team somewhere with this tournament (cue to Houston Rockets fans nodding sadly). I decided I didn't want the party to end prematurely.

As such, I am really only eliminating eight teams at the moment. The teams that finished in last place in each group are not participating in this stage of the tournament, partially because I didn't have space for them, but also as a cutoff point to keep the numbers pretty.

This part of the tournament will be a double-elimination single game tournament. That means either 62 or 63 games, depending on the result of the championship game, since one loss won't knock a team out. I am seeding this field similarly to how I am seeding the championship bracket, which will be released tomorrow, in that finish in the group standings will be the first factor in ranking teams. All of the fifth place teams will take up the top eight seeds, then all sixth place teams, and so on. From there, ties will be broken by record, then point differential and finally, if necessary, by average seed of the other three teams in the group. Point differential will eliminate most of the problems, but I wanted to make sure I had a fallback if necessary.

So without further ado, here is the field for the Consolation Bracket of the NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions.

Friday, August 5, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Play Day 36

We've had five full weeks of games go into the books, and half of our groups have seen their schedules completed after yesterday. Now, the time has come to finish it off.

Just 16 games remain to be played for this stage of the tournament. Some of these games mean absolutely nothing; both participants have been eliminated and only pride is on the line. Others are important for group standings, which could mean the difference between home court advantage in the first round and having to start the Elimination Stage on the road. Some teams are locked into a place in their respective group and are hoping to improve their record and land home court advantage in a later round. For others, their spot in that stage has not been established, and a win today is an absolute necessity to keep the dream alive.

Finishing out Group Play today will be Groups F and G, coming off of one day off, while Groups A and D enjoy being a day fresher. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's close out this round!

Thursday, August 4, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Play Day 35

It all comes down to this. Just 32 games remain to be played in the Group Stage of the 2016 Tournament of Champions.

We started July with 72 teams fighting to be one of 32 that would get to play beyond the end of this week. Half of our groups finish play today, with three spots in the Elimination Stage that will be claimed through these 16 games.

The schedule has Groups B and E, who just finished home-and-home series yesterday, back on the floor today to close out their schedules, while Groups C and H join them after having yesterday off to round it out. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Time to head courtside.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Play Day 34

Four teams have completed Group Play thus far, and four more finish out their schedules today. For the rest, it's a setup to a photo finish over the final two days.

The NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions is winding down a little bit. We began in May with 74 teams, starting with the ABA champions sorting themselves out. In June, we narrowed that field of 74 down to 72. Today, just 49 teams remain alive. Some eliminated teams will play once or twice in the next couple days, just to close out the schedule, but the rest are fighting to be one of the top 32 teams remaining.

Today, we have Group F returning from a two day break, while Groups B, D and E were off yesterday after playing the day before. Those three groups are all playing the final home-and-home series of the tournament. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Here's our results.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Play Day 33

Today, four teams finish out their schedules for Group Play and await the last three days to see their fate.

We're down to the tail end of this stage in the Tournament of Champions, and with it, the field for the Elimination Stage is almost set. Half of the spots have already been claimed, with three groups won outright. Despite that, there are still a couple more opportunities for teams to fight their way in.

Today's schedule features Group H finishing off a back-to-back, while Groups A, C, and G return to the court after taking a much needed Monday off. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play!

Monday, August 1, 2016

2016 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions: Group Play Day 32

Last year, the start of August meant the start of the Elimination Stage of the NBA Tournament of Champions. This year, the extra invitees mean that we need a little more time.

After today, just two more rounds of games will need to be played, so time is now of the essence. 22 spots still remain up for grabs in this year's Elimination Stage, and for the teams still fighting, today's games are all that matters for right now.

Our slate for this Monday features Groups D and E returning from a Sunday off, while Groups B and H had the entire weekend to recharge and get back to it. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's see our results.