Two weeks in we're all still fairly close together but a little bit of a gap is starting to take shape with 32 games in the books. Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, which has him still leading me by the narrowest of margins, but we both had excellent Week 2's.
Hero picks have come back down to earth, but only slightly; as a group we're 50-50 on those as well as on consensus picks (though the one that happened last week was on a technicality since Aiden forgot to get his picks in for the Thursday night game, so his Week 2 mark is a little bit misleading.) But the hero mark has been trending up since I started keeping track in 2016. You can view a full breakdown of the group's picks in relation to each other here. Our group's standings and weekly pick grids can be found here as well.
This week, Adam and I disagree on half of this week's 16 tilts. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Lucas: Titans. I wonder if Jalen Ramsey will be a Ewing Theory candidate if he does get traded. Or would that be more on the whiskers of Gardner Minshew, who is still only the second-greatest mustache in the state of Florida?
Adam: Jaguars. True to my word, no Foles = Jags cover.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta looked much better last week. Taking the points and the probable upset.
Adam: Falcons. Coming off a big win, Atlanta keeps it rolling on the road. Yes, I admit the Colts have been decent, but I like Julio Jones over T.Y. Hilton.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Lucas: Bills. Hopefully Bills Mafia gives Andy Dalton a huge ovation before Cincy's first series. After that, let your defense wreak havoc.
Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys (-21.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. It's been a long time since we've had a 20 point line; maybe not since the oft-mentioned Jags at Broncos -27.5 from 2013. I should have taken the points then, and I'm thinking about it now, but I took 18.5 with Miami last week and they got curbstomped by the Patriots. On the road against what seems like it's a very good (if not elite) Dallas offense for a team with one of the worst point differentials two games into a season ever... screw it, I'm laying three touchdowns.
Adam:
Lucas note: I kind of hope they go 0-16, because I'd love to throw them, the '17 Browns, and the '08 Lions into WhatIfSports and see who the worst of the worst is. I guess the expansion Bucs can come too.
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Lucas: Packers. Part of me isn't sure I want to lay this many points on the Packers because their offense has only been at god-tier level for roughly 20 minutes this season. But two games in I love this defense, and they're going up against Joe Flacco. Add in that it's Throwback Weekend? Come on.
Adam: Packers. A fair line after a tough loss to my Bears; Denver comes out flat and does not do well. A-A-Ron does A-A-Ron things and torches Denver.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Lucas: Lions. I've been clamoring for their heads for years, but if you hear me say anything about firing Green Bay's training staff this season, show me the injury list for Philly's game against Atlanta last week, including footage of Carson Wentz (Go Bison) going into the injury tent, then smack me upside the head. Good lord.
Adam: Lions. I was thinking at first to lay the points, but then really thought about the Eagles: a close game against the Skins and a loss to Atlanta. Even at full strength I would take the points, but with a few banged up wideouts I'll take the Lions... maybe a last minute win, but most likely they fall short of the win but still cover.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Maybe I was wrong about Lamar Jackson. Getting a meh Kansas City defense means this will be a shootout, which increases the chances of something like a backdoor cover or an outright upset or something. I look forward to Patrick Mahomes lighting this secondary on fire and using it to light a cigarette in the afterglow of proving me wrong.
Adam: Chiefs. I really want to take the Ravens, and I really want Mahomes to falter, but I suspect not. I’ll lay the touchdown and hope Mahomes does Mahomes things and Jackson does not find a way to overcome them.
Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Hang on, can we talk about how Stefon Diggs is... sneakily kind of an idiot? If he doesn't remove his helmet, the Vikings can reasonably go for two to make it a three point game and then Kirk Cousins doesn't have to make a desperation heave to the end zone that gets picked off by Kevin King later in the game. I do like that, Kirk.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-22.5)
Lucas: Patriots. *Takes the Cowboys -21.5 earlier in this column*
*Sees Patriots are -22.5 five games later*
Sunday, Late Afternoon
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Lucas: Giants. BAH GAWD THAT'S DANIEL JONES' MUSIC! (Note: video contains NSFW language)
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Cam Newton looked pretty bad last week, and the Cardinals are 2-0 against the spread this year. Go get that W, Kyler!
Adam: Panthers. Ms. Newton for the win!
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. The Saints are screwed... unless they listen to what I've been clamoring for for years and implement the freaking Flying Dragon already.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I know they're down the Leader of Men now too, but I don't feel like the Niners have done anywhere near enough to justify being a touchdown favorite. Taking the points and hoping I don't get killed by Mason Rudolph.
Adam: 49ers. They are the surprise team and with Big Ben out I don’t see how they can stop the Niner storm.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Deshaun Watson is on pace to get sacked 80 times this year. Say no more.
Adam: Texans. This is a gut pick. The Chargers have folks out on both sides of the ball and let's be honest: they will have like 500 people at the game anyway, so who cares.
Sunday Night
Los Angeles Rams @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Rams. Look, I'm all for Cleveland finally getting some shine in hosting the marquee game of the week, but I don't know that they have enough to beat the Rams unless Odell pulls some more voodoo magic out of his butt.
Lucas note: Adam's pick said by 5.5, and I get why he did that, but given that that's impossible... I just rounded up.
Monday Night
Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins (+4.5)
Lucas: Redskins. This is me hedging my bets a little bit. It gives the Bears just enough room for a potential one score victory while also hanging onto the fact that Mitchell Trubisky... may not be that great a quarterback.
Adam: Bears. We finally see the offense put on the wheels this week. I feel like there has been a conspiracy going on with the Bears to only play well enough to throw other teams off the scent then run the table. OK, maybe 12-2 or 11-3 the rest of the way, but hope helps me deal with the Pack loss and win that almost should have been a loss against the Broncs.
Lucas note:
Records So Far
Lucas: 19-13 (11-5 last week)
Adam: 20-12 (11-5 last week)
Joe: 17-15 (8-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 14-18 (6-10 last week)
Aiden: 11-21 (5-11 last week)
Jim: 14-18 (6-10 last week)
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