AFC West Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here.
For the AFC South preview, click here.
For the NFC West preview, click here.

The preseason is done, and we're less than a week away from the start of the season! I've almost made my way entirely around the country, with just 3 divisions left. Today we tackle the AFC West, the tightest division race from last year looking back.

AFC West
Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC South

1. San Diego Chargers
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

There's something about this team under Norv Turner where they don't seem to be at their best until it's too late... or unless Mike Scifres, Champion Punter of the Universe is singlehandedly keeping you in the game. But Phillip Rivers is likely to have something of a bounceback year after a disappointing 2011 season. He's without Vincent Jackson and Ryan Matthews might still be a little banged up, but I think in a weak division the Chargers have a good shot at winning this division.

2. Denver Broncos*
2011 Record: 8-8, lost in AFC Divisional round

Denver made probably the second biggest upgrade under center during the offseason, unloading Tim Tebow and replacing him with Peyton Manning (though honestly, I still would have loved to see this theory play out at Mile High.) Largely it was the defense last year that kept Denver in so many games allowing Tebow to do things like this. With Manning commanding the offense, assuming his neck holds up he should be able to lead this team to victories without the need for such dramatics, and I think it'll be enough to get them back to the playoffs.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2011 Record: 7-9, missed playoffs

Matt Cassel remains an average quarterback, but this offense has some pretty good weapons in Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston on the other side. A healthy Jamaal Charles also helps, and having Peyton Hillis to spell him occasionally will be a benefit.They have some decent weapons on the defensive side of the ball as well, which should get this team back to around .500 again and in decent position for next year.

4. Oakland Raiders
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

It's amazing to think that without Tebow's magic the Raiders would have been the division champs. They have a decent shot at it if Darren McFadden stays healthy all season (not a given) and if Carson Palmer learns that his team wears black and silver. Their defense has some decent weapons but I'm not sold on the top receivers being Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. The other problem, of course, is Oakland's constant penalty troubles, though we'll see if a new head coach (again) can turn the discipline problem around.

Tomorrow I'll have the preview I've been most looking forward to writing as its my own division in the NFC North and thus the one I'm most knowledgeable about. I might also talk to my dad and see what he has to say about his team. All we're missing was having my brother pick the Lions as his team to be difficult. Alas.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 1

I'm taking another brief break from the NFL previews for a little bit for some college football talk. If you've been a reader for a while you know I have a heavy anti-BCS bias and that led to my not paying attention to college football until my senior year of high school. Even to this day I don't really pay attention to the recruiting and thus none to preseason rankings, as they really hurt the process of deciding who should play for a national title.

So as to not by hypocritical, I'm not doing a preview of who I think would make the "Death to the BCS" Playoffs, though I was tempted to do that. I instead decided to do an investigation this year into the scheduling of non-conference games in the FBS. One of the major attacks on the current system points out the importance of going undefeated, and often we see this applied in the form of weak non-conference schedules for teams. So week by week I will go through the schedule of all 124 FBS level teams and try to somewhat objectively rank their schedules outside of their respective conferences.

Since I'm not ranking teams before the season starts I needed a somewhat fair system to look at these slates of games in terms of credibility. I came up with the following point system:

• 0 points if team is on a bye or playing a conference opponent
• -1 point if the team is playing a D-IAA opponent or lower
• 1 point if the team is playing an FBS opponent (credit for playing someone)
• 1 point if the team is playing an opponent from a major conference (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC)
• 1 point if the team is playing on the road.

The system is by no means perfect nor is it very advanced. It's enough to get a general idea of how each school is scheduling its non conference games even if it doesn't tell the whole story.

The general consensus from this opening week is actually better than many people would have you believe (and better than I expected). Of the 124 teams in D-IA, there were 41 games (82 teams) between D-IA teams scheduled and not postponed for this opening week. But there were still some teams that upheld the stereotype of scheduling cupcakes at home.

So without further ado, here's the rankings for Week 1:

NFC West Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here.
For the AFC South preview, click here.

There's a full slate of games today to round out the preseason and my last day of work for the week. Four more divisions left, and it's time for us to head out west.

NFC West
Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC East

1. San Francisco 49ers
2011 Record: 13-3, lost in NFC Championship game

Last year was a perfect storm for the Niners. Alex Smith turned into a competent quarterback and he had backup from a phenomenal defensive unit that picked up a ton of takeaways. I think both of these things will regress to the mean, but in a weak division the Niners should still come away with another crown. Alex Smith may not put up the same numbers as last year but he does have nice new weapons in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. That defense still has great guys like Pat Willis and Justin Smith. They'll be a force to be reckoned with, especially in their second year under Harbaugh, but they won't have as inflated a record.

2. Arizona Cardinals
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

I debated back and forth about this spot after San Francisco, given that they should be the clear runaway in the division. The Cardinals have a pretty good defense with guys like Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett on the defensive line, and I like the look of their secondary on paper. What worries me is how they'll score points. Patrick Peterson can only return so many punts for touchdowns, so it rests with an offense led by either Kevin Kolb or John Skelton, and we saw last year how that worked out. Pencil them in for a competitive season, but no playoff dreams this time around.

3. Seattle Seahawks
2011 Record: 7-9, missed playoffs

It will be interesting to see what Russell Wilson can do as the presumptive starter under center. I'm not entirely sold on the offense other than Marshawn Lynch because he causes earthquakes. The tight ends are decent in Zach Miller and Kellen Winslow, if a bit old, and the wideouts are largely young and unproven. But this team was decent last year, and with a slightly easier schedule (playing Carolina and Dallas as opposed to division winners) might give them a decent edge, assuming they survive playing the NFC North and a few tough games against the AFC East.

4. St. Louis Rams
2011 Record: 2-14, missed playoffs

Sam Bradford is healthy, which always helps. But he doesn't have a lot of help on offense. Danny Amendola and the younger Steve Smith as your best wideouts isn't a great package and Stephen Jackson is 29 now. But with Bradford under center this team will do better than the 2-14 they suffered through last year. It probably won't save them from a top 10 pick, but this is a league where often times baby steps are needed to climb out of a hole.

It won't be up as early in the day, but tomorrow I'll get to the AFC West. I get to sleep in a bit as my 4 day weekend begins for Labor Day. Enjoy the last of preseason football! Or, if you prefer, rejoice that the real deal is almost here!

AFC South Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here. 

Now that there's something to look forward to pertaining to the NFL season involving Confessions of a Sportscaster, let's get back to work on these previews. As we prepare for the final week of the preseason starting today, we're looking at the AFC South.

AFC South
Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC North

1. Houston Texans
2011 Record: 10-6, lost in AFC Divisional round

The first playoff trip in franchise history was a relatively successful one in that they won their first ever playoff game before bowing out to Baltimore. It's something of a what-if team since they lost Matt Schaub for the playoffs, but the rest of the team more than made up for it. With a healthy Schaub back throwing to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels while Arian Foster attacks the ground, the Texans are poised to build a mini-dynasty in the division while the Colts reload (see below). The defense also has some good weapons like J.J. Watt and Jonathan Joseph that will help Reliant Stadium host a playoff game for the second straight January.

2. Indianapolis Colts
2011 Record: 2-14, missed playoffs

I'm probably insane for thinking this, given the Colts are a year removed from their worst season in the 21st century, playing a rookie at quarterback (albeit arguably the most talented one fresh out of school since the last guy the Colts picked up in that situation (some Manning kid...), and switching to a 3-4 defense thus moving mainstays Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to outside linebackers. But Andrew Luck still has decent weapons in Reggie Wayne and brought some teammates from Stanford. It's a tough schedule in this division, but with the 4th place schedule, the Colts could overachieve to 2nd but still have a losing record.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 Record: 5-11, missed playoffs

I flip-flopped between Tennessee and Jacksonville  here, ultimately deciding on Jacksonville for this spot because I'm not sold on Blaine Gabbert. He does have some good weapons in rookie Justin Blackmon and stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew. There's some decent personnel on defense as well, so I think they can offset any continued struggles by Gabbert. If he shows improvement in his second year, the Jaguars could threaten for 2nd place.

4. Tennessee Titans
2011 Record: 9-7, missed playoffs

The Titans will likely be relying on 2nd year man Jake Locker to run the offense, though I'm sure a lot of the work will fall to Chris Johnson, who I would assume can't possibly have as disappointing a year as he did last year following a holdout. There's some good personnel on defense, and they could overachieve to 2nd in the division above Indy and Jacksonville, but I'm just not sure I see it. For whatever reason I'm not sold on this team. It seemed to work out okay in thinking about the Cleveland Indians this season, but whether it will work here, I don't know.

We're finally at the halfway point of the previews. Look forward to the couple of games tonight before tomorrow's smorgasbord of preseason finales. Just one more week till the start of the regular season!

Hitting the Century Mark

In August of 2011, I began work at WROK, a news-talk radio station up in Rockford, Illinois as a board operator for football games following my graduation from North Central College. I had begun thinking about starting up a sports blog in hopes of using that as a springboard into further work in sports media. While sadly that has not happened and I am instead monitoring traffic in southern California from downtown Chicago, I have stayed in the game thanks to a decision in October of 2011 to start up Confessions of a Sportscaster. It's been more of a fun thing to keep myself busy while also giving myself a forum to voice opinions about the world of sports.

It took a little over 10 months with coverage of football, basketball, hockey, baseball, and the Olympics, as well as long winded rants denouncing the evils of the BCS or people who prioritize sports over life, death, and child abuse. I've written about gut wrenching losses and amazing experiences in a gym. But finally today, I write my 100th post for Confessions of a Sportscaster.

To celebrate this, I won't link back to any prior articles as you can find them on the sidebar on the right. But I will instead talk about an opportunity for a contest with a friend and a chance for you to play along.

I've mentioned a few times that my friend Nathaniel recently started an NFL blog and in order to unite our writing in the name of something fun, we decided we were going to pick winners in NFL games. But since just doing that would be too easy, we decided to take it up a notch and pick against the spread. We will post our picks and the reasons behind them (a la Bill Simmons) on either here or his site (probably alternating weekly) and go head to head to see who can pick these games better. The winner between the two of us will likely get to guest write for the loser's blog, something fun on that end.

I'd also like to extend that same offer to those of you who randomly decide to read this. You can sign up for a free ESPN account and join our pool here. In the event neither Nathaniel nor I win, the winner will get an opportunity to guest write a post on here as well. There's no restrictions on who wants to join. If you know copious amounts about the NFL or know absolutely nothing, you are welcome to take us on.

Realize that the probably deadline is before the regular season starts in a week, so you have until then if you want to join us. Good luck!

NFC South Preview

For the NFC East Preview, click here.
For the AFC East Preview, click here.

We're a day away from the first games of the last week of the preseason. One last look at your fringe guys to round out the roster and be prepared to go into battle for a Super Bowl. We continue the swing around the country now by visiting the NFC South.


NFC South
Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Atlanta Falcons
2011 Record: 10-6, lost in NFC Wild Card round

Historically, the NFC South has been a constant changing of the guard. Since its formation in 2002, no team has ever successfully defended its division championship, and each team has won the division at least twice. That's the parity that the NFL is known for, and part of the reason why I feel the Falcons can get back on top of the division this year. They also have the personnel to get back on top this year. This is a very good offense even though Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game. He has legitimate weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention veterans Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. A pretty tough home environment also helps. I'm not 100% sold on this defense, but I think they can do enough to win the division.

2. New Orleans Saints*
2011 Record: 13-3, lost in NFC Divisional round

I'm disappointed that despite being invited to their minicamp, Kyle Fiedorowicz did not get any further looks this offseason and is not on an NFL roster. If nothing else, he does get the honor of being in Madden '13. Not that Drew Brees needed another huge tight end when he's got Jimmy Graham to throw to all day, or a slew of wide receivers who helped give Brees the single season yardage record last season. Their defense did take a bit of a hit due to free agent departures as well as suspensions (the legitimacy of which is up for debate, but I don't really have an official stance on it). The biggest hit and the biggest reason why I don't have the Saints winning the division is the absence of Sean Payton from the sidelines. He's unquestionably one of the best coaches in the league and that open seat they're leaving everywhere for him like he's dead will be a huge obstacle for them to overcome, though I still think they take one of the wild cards (denoted by the asterisk).

3. Carolina Panthers
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is one of the better dual-threat offensive teams you'll see in the league. That DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (assuming Stewart is healthy) combination is a deadly threat on the ground, and Steve Smith had a resurgent 2011 season. Rumor has it that top 2011 pick Cam Newton is a large reason as to why. He may suffer a bit of a sophomore slump as many do, but with a year of NFL experience under his belt this team can continue to grow. Jon Beason and Luke Kuechly will solidify this defense, and while these guys may not be in the playoff picture come November, this will be a fun team to watch and someone to look out for within the next couple years.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Record: 4-12, missed playoffs

They were able to lure Vincent Jackson away from San Diego and have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but I'm discouraged by the way Josh Freeman regressed last year. Maybe it was an off year, but while I think he'll move back towards his 2010 season I don't think he'll be quite as good. It doesn't help that he doesn't have much in the way of support on offense beyond Jackson (Blount is a pretty good runner, but I wouldn't call him great by any stretch) and the talent level in the rest of the division is just too much. Keep reloading and wait another year. Or get Jon Gruden to call 6 yard slants on every down.

Tomorrow we'll have the AFC South preview as well as a special feature. It only took me just under a year to get to 100 posts on Confessions of a Sportscaster. That's got to count for something, right?

AFC East Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.

It's Monday morning, I still have a few days before my 4 day weekend, and there are still 7 more divisions left to tackle as we approach this final week of the preseason. Let's keep getting the East Coast out of the way by tackling the AFC East today.

AFC East
Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC West

1. New England Patriots
2011 Record: 13-3, lost Super Bowl XLVI

10 years ago if you had asked me who the best quarterback in the NFL was, after 12-year-old me told you Brett Favre was amazing, I would have gotten serious and probably told you Peyton Manning was tops, not really being aware of who Tom Brady was. Within the next couple years it seemed pretty obvious Brady had supplanted Manning despite his gaudier numbers just because Brady put up good numbers and his team won. Today Brady has considerable weapons at his disposal with Wes Welker grabbing just about everything thrown his way and that scary tight end combo (see how scary Gronk is?!) to throw hundreds of passes to. If last year is any indication, the Pats will give up a good chunk of yardage every week, but their offense should more than be able to make up for the points given up. I also figure (as my friend Nathaniel does in the link above) that Darth Hoodie's defense won't get quite as many takeaways as last year.

2. Buffalo Bills
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is a tough division to pick after New England winning it and making it back to the playoffs. Buffalo showed a lot of promise at the start of last season before falling way back down to Earth. They did spend money this offseason to lure Mario Williams to help anchor the defensive line. I still feel that opponents can gain some yardage against this defense, the offense should be in pretty good shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick adjusting following his long-term deal and guys like Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson (assuming he keeps his head on straight) helping him out. They won't make the playoffs I don't think, but they're continuing to move in the right direction.

3. New York Jets
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

This team's window is closed. While most teams will have some disagreements and maybe some scuffles during training camp, ESPN seemed fixated on multiple fights in practice amongst the Jets. They have some good skill players on offense like Shonn Greene and Santonio Holmes (assuming he can keep his head on straight), but Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback. At best, he's an average one who can manage a game, and while I like Tim Tebow, he's can't make most of the throws an NFL quarterback needs to. This defense can still do some damage but they are a far cry from what they were 2 or 3 years ago.

4. Miami Dolphins
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

The Dolphins might be taking a step in the right direction. Starting a rookie quarterback is a bit of a gamble, but they're prepared to send Ryan Tannehill out to battle the AFC East schedule. It's a fairly forgiving schedule for him without too many tough out-of-division opponents, but he doesn't have a lot of weapons on offense (though he'll have time to find them being protected by Jake Long and company). Defense raises huge question marks though, as I think teams can both run and pass on these guys. You're probably looking at an early draft pick, especially if the on-court antics of Dwayne Wade infect the locker room. Heck, it's already spread out to the West Coast among non-humans.

Click to enlarge. From California Highway Patrol Computer Aided Dispatch, 8/19/12

Tomorrow we'll go down and attack the NFC South as we make our way around the country . We're a quarter of the way there!

NFC East Preview

Three weeks is a long time to be on hiatus from writing. But duty calls at work and I didn't want to spam this blog with more anti-PSU apologist drivel or go on about indisputable facts pertaining to how bad the Dream Team would have beaten this year's Olympic team. But with the NFL regular season almost upon us, it's time I did some catching up... heavy catching up.

Every day for the next 8 days I will write a preview about each of the NFL's divisions ranking each team and giving thought to their season at hand. Stay tuned as well later this week as I'll be unveiling an interactive plan for the 2012 campaign with some help. But for now, let's turn our attention to the division of the defending Super Bowl champs.

NFC East
Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC North

1. New York Giants
2011 Record: 9-7, won Super Bowl XLVI

Last year near the end of the regular season into the playoffs, people began making the case for Eli Manning as an elite quarterback. It's a case I agree with, though I think he falls just short of the upper echelon of elite quarterbacks (right now, Rodgers, Brees and Brady) but could easily be considered a top 5 QB. (You can see my full rankings here.) Nonetheless he is a force to be reckoned with, especially late in a close game. He has a fair amount of weapons in Ahmad Bradshaw, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, though the loss of Brandon Jacobs will hurt. What really scares me though is the defense, anchored by that scary good front line (JPP, Umenyiora and Tuck) that will pressure opposing quarterbacks. This team has a good shot at a repeat as long as they stay healthy (always the magical formula for success).

2. Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

Health is always a concern here, especially considering how fragile Michael Vick can be. But the so-called "Dream Team" from last year severely underachieved to .500 ball (granted, again, Vick was hurt) despite coming away with a huge haul in the shortened free agency period following the lockout. This team on paper still looks good even if Vick is hampered by his rib injury and won't start the opener. Lesean McCoy is a solid running back, and Mike Kafka would still have guys like Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to throw to, with a tough defense led by Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. I don't think they'll be a playoff team this year but they'll be in the hunt right up until the end.

3. Dallas Cowboys
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

It's gotten to the point the last couple of years where people rag on Tony Romo and call him overrated. I would argue (as I'm sure others would) that he's become so overrated he's now underrated. He puts up very good numbers in the regular season, but also can make some mistakes at inopportune moments. I'm not entirely sold on a DeMarco Murray/Felix Jones top 2 at the tailback spot, and I feel that this defense can and will be thrown on a lot, but these guys will be competitive. I just think Jerry Jones was off a few months ago when he said the Cowboys' window was closing; it was never really open to begin with (and contrary to what he and his players might say, I don't think it's open this year.)

4. Washington Redskins
2011 Record: 5-11, missed playoffs

I hate to seem like I'm adding to the East Coast bias, but I think this is one of the strongest divisions top to bottom in the NFL (I'd rank the NFC North for sure above these guys, but not sure beyond that.) Having Robert Griffin III as your new quarterback certainly helps. While I think he'll have some struggles when defenses adjust to him a little bit, I think he'll definitely help this team win some ball games. I'm not completely sold on their other offensive skill players, but their defense doesn't look too bad on paper. They'll be in ball games; I just don't know that they'll have the firepower to put them over the top a lot. Guys like Pierre Garcon and Tim Hightower can only do so much.

That's it for now. Tomorrow I will have the AFC East for you as I bust my butt to crank out 32 team previews in 8 days. 

Swimming Off Into the Sunset

I had wanted to write this a couple weeks ago leading up to the London Olympic Games, but workloads and a trip to South Haven, Michigan threw that off. I was able to watch parts of the opening ceremony and I've caught some of the different events over the past week-plus. Last night though I was able to catch the tape delay of the most significant swimming event we'll see for a while.

Photo from USA Today taken by Rob Schumacher.

I've been a fan of Phelps since he first burst onto the scene in 2004, but really enjoyed watching him in 2008. My brother did too, even taking to doing swimming moves on the carpet in our living room. We were blessed to get to watch a legend write itself before our very eyes. He owns some of the most iconic moments in Olympic history and while I'm sure he wanted more than just the 4 gold and 2 silver medals he came away with in London, but he said he's accomplished everything he set out to in his illustrious career. He's also inspired a number of kids, especially my brother.

 Obviously I'm not a world-class athlete... or even really on a local scale (otherwise I wouldn't be writing here). But from a young age my mom, who worked as a lifeguard in her youth, taught both me and my brother how to swim by having us enrolled in swimming lessons at multiple venues. I always considered myself a good swimmer, decent by competitive standards. But Michael Phelps is in another world all his own.

In January of 2011 my family got the opportunity of a lifetime. The Make-a-Wish Foundation flew us out to Baltimore for a few days of getting to see some of the city, walk around the inner harbor, visit the aquarium there, and ultimately make a trip to the Meadowbrook Aquatic Club to fulfill my brother's wish of getting to swim with Michael Phelps, an afternoon I'll never forget.

I'm pretty sure this picture says it all.

We floated and chatted for a while after watching Michael and a few other swimmers train (with some amazing equipment including a huge bucket of water attached to a swimmer for strength training or something along those lines... really something to see in person), we also did some laps in the pool. My brother climbed on Michael's back and he swam freestyle back and forth in something of an informal race against me. I just wanted to see how I measured up compared to the greatest swimmer of all time. To put it in perspective: he had largely taken a huge layoff from swimming after Beijing, was carrying a fairly heavy 11 year old on his back... and probably wasn't giving it his all. Taking all that into account, it was all I could do just to keep pace with them. It was incredible.

We had also planned for my brother to race Michael. They decided on backstroke and had to negotiate pretty hard to find a fair race. My brother initially wanted Michael to do 20 laps for his 1, and Michael played hardball to get him down to 7. It was pretty funny to see a guy who 2 and a half years before had gone 8 for 8 in gold medals telling an 11 year old that swimming 20 laps to his 1 wasn't going to be fair, but Logan seemed dead set on the 20 laps for a while before we finally convinced him to go with 7. It turned out to be the perfect number, as Logan beat him when Michael finished his 6th lap. My friend joked yesterday that that loss bugged Phelps through the beginning of the London games and might explain his fourth place finish in that opening race.

Over the course of those 3 or so hours, we bonded with a very down-to-earth man who would become the most decorated Olympian of all time. I think he was touched to spend time with my family that day, and somewhere he has one of our MDA Telethon T-shirts from 2010 signed by my brother. It was another unexpected moment that really captured the day in our minds.

 

If you were ever looking for an athlete for your kids to root for, Michael Phelps was the perfect one. Say what you will about the bong incident in 2009 or his time off from the pool after Beijing, but he absolutely earned those 22 medals in 3 different Games, and has been humble through it all, thankful for his teammates, and appreciative of many fans.

Thank you Michael, for all the memories, both in the pool and in our hearts. Enjoy your retirement. You've earned it.