Monday, September 30, 2019

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Championship

128 teams entered. Over six thousand games later, we're down to just two teams as we renew our quest to find the greatest MLB team of all time as part of the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions. Every World Series champion got an invitation to the fun, and every franchise without a title got at least one iteration from their history into the festivities. They then went through a grueling 90 game double round robin to build up a significant sample size.

That accounted for 5,760 of the 6000-plus games, but that was just the beginning as I began a single elimination tournament from the top eight teams from each of the groups I'd built out for this tournament. Five rounds later, we have our top two teams left standing. And the fun part for this: we get an old rematch.

On one side was arguably the favorite coming into this whole thing. They were the best team in the 2017 Tournament of Champions, but proceeded to need every possible game to win the Championship of Champions. For a title defense, the 2016 Cubs seemed poised to be a dominant force once again, but ran into some slight hiccups. Despite losing their final four series in group play, the Cubs went 54-36, good for second place in Group H. They swept the 1919 Cincinnati Reds in the opening round of the postseason before needing winner-take-all games at home to finish off the 1972 Oakland Athletics and 1938 New York Yankees. A quarterfinal sweep over the 1944 St. Louis Cardinals, winners of their own group, and a six game victory of the legendary 1927 New York Yankees, have the Cubs back to within four wins of further immortality.

On the other side was a team that, in 2017, tied for the third-best record among my National League representatives, but was relegated to Wild Card status for the postseason. They won the Wild Card series that year before dropping a heartbreaking fifth game on a walk-off homer to... the 2016 Cubs. The 1975 Cincinnati Reds came back two years later placed in a different group, and worked to a 57-33 record... which unfortunately for them was only good for third in their group as they finished just one game behind the co-leaders. But the Reds won their first two series in four games apiece over the 2004 Boston Red Sox and 1912 Boston Red Sox, respectively, before punching their ticket to the quarterfinals with a sweep of the group champion 1924 Washington Senators. Cincinnati followed that up with a six game victory over the 1984 Detroit Tigers to remove the DH from the rest of the tournament, then won a hard-fought seven game series over the 1953 New York Yankees to get one more crack at the team that knocked them off two years ago.

This time around, the Reds will get home field advantage by virtue of their better Group Play record. It's a best of seven series played in a 2-3-2 format, so the Reds will get a little more leeway than the best-of-five they had to play in two years ago. In prior rounds of this postseason I've just gone with results and records. This time, I'm going to do brief writeups of each game in this series. You can view the bracket to date, as well as scores and standings from as far back as group play, here. All simulations for the entire Tournament of Champions are provided by WhatIfSports.com. And so, one final time this year... let's play ball!

Thursday, September 26, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 4

It wasn't the greatest week on the whole for the coalition, but we nonetheless chug along into the fourth week of the NFL season!

All but one of us finished below .500 for the week last week, and while I don't necessarily want to say that we're seeing some separation... we kind of are. Adam took five of our eight disputed games from last week to extend his lead over me, but I remain in second place with a slight cushion. You can view the full standings here, and how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

We have our first set of byes this week to cut the slate down to 15 games.  Adam calls this week:
"The great reversal for about the next 3-4 weeks... where the oddsmakers over-correct and therefore cause many people to pick the wrong side of a game. While I am tempted to do an opposite week, with my [three] game lead I am going to just be more thoughtful about the picks."
As part of "The Great Reversal," Adam and I disagree on eight games. Onward to the picks!

Friday, September 20, 2019

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Semifinals

And then there were four.

I started this project all the way back in April with 128 teams, including every World Series champion dating back to 1903. After 90 games for each team, that got narrowed down to 64. And after four grueling rounds, we've finally advanced to the semifinals, and there are some big names here. Murderer's Row is here, along with another Yankee iteration a generation later, the Big Red Machine has advanced after having to settle for a Wild Card and getting bounced in the NLDS two years ago, and our defending Champion of Champions in the 2016 Cubs round out what's left.

To narrow the field down to just two teams, we will play a pair of best-of-seven series in a 2-3-2 format, with home field advantage going to the team with the better group play record (and as luck would have it, seedings match that as well). With all of our 1973-onward American League teams gone, so is the designated hitter for the remainder of the tournament.

You can view the bracket to date as well as how group play went here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!

Thursday, September 19, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition chugs along as we advance into the third week of the 2019 NFL season!

Two weeks in we're all still fairly close together but a little bit of a gap is starting to take shape with 32 games in the books. Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, which has him still leading me by the narrowest of margins, but we both had excellent Week 2's.

Hero picks have come back down to earth, but only slightly; as a group we're 50-50 on those as well as on consensus picks (though the one that happened last week was on a technicality since Aiden forgot to get his picks in for the Thursday night game, so his Week 2 mark is a little bit misleading.) But the hero mark has been trending up since I started keeping track in 2016. You can view a full breakdown of the group's picks in relation to each other here. Our group's standings and weekly pick grids can be found here as well.

This week, Adam and I disagree on half of this week's 16 tilts. Let's get to it!

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Quarterfinals

We're down to the final eight teams as the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions rolls on!

We've finally moved beyond the confines of group play, as the 90 round robin games and three playoff rounds were enough. We now have group "champions" as we move on to the tournament's quarterfinals.

There was a good blend of chalk and upsets through the first three rounds, as only three round robin group winners have advanced to this stage alongside a two, three, four, five, and six seed apiece. Some of the most legendary teams are included in this group, including a playoff team from the 2017 tournament as well as the defending Champion of Champions.

At this point, for all intents and purposes, seedings based on finish in group play are being dropped and home field advantage will go to the team with the better record from group play. For this round, the higher "seeds" did have better records, but I'm making this change for this round onward because I think the sample size speaks for itself. For the remainder of the tournament as well, we're expanding the rounds from best of five to best of seven to be played in a 2-3-2 format as used in Major League Baseball's postseason. We have one series that this will impact in this round, but since the 1984 Detroit Tigers played in the DH era, all of their home games will be played with a designated hitter. All other games will have the pitcher batting ninth.

You can view the updated bracket, as well as scores and standings from group play, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play ball!

Thursday, September 12, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

One week and 16 games are in the books as the coalition rolls on to the second week of the NFL season!

Week 1 saw a lot of balance, but it also brought a situation that did not occur a single time last season: Adam has a lead. He took three of our five disputed games last week to tie for the early group lead, but I'm right on his heels. Even our last place person in Aiden is only three games out a week in, though that was with getting a couple hero picks to go his way.

Speaking of hero picks, five of our six pickers put in for one in the opening week, with four of us getting at least one right. In total, we went 5-2 on hero picks last week while going ahead of our historical average on consensus picks, nailing two of three. You can view a full breakdown of how we picked in relation to each other here.

As we roll into our second week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 16. Let's get to it!

Monday, September 9, 2019

2019 MLB Tournament of Champions: Group Finals

I'm breaking from football again for a little bit because the 2019 MLB Tournament of Champions is still rolling on!

We've managed to narrow the field down to 16 teams from the original 128, including every World Series champion. It's a little amazing when in other sports that I've done Tournaments of Champions for it's all more modern teams, while here, half the remaining field is from before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Our two highest seeds from group play, as well as our defending Champion of Champions from 2017 are all still in contention.

So today I'm going through the third round, which is the last set of series that will be played within the confines of the groups I set up at the beginning of the tournament. It's also the final round of a best-of-five. Home field advantage goes to the higher seed based on group finish in a 2-2-1 format. This is only a factor for three teams and thus three series, but any home games for American Leagues from 1973 onward are played with a designated hitter; all other games have the pitcher batting ninth.

You can view the bracket so far, as well as go back to see how group play went, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Elite Eight!


Thursday, September 5, 2019

2019 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

The long spring and summer of discontent is over, and at long last... NFL football is back. And with it... not quite my longest-running, but arguably my favorite, feature returns once again.

I started Confessions of a Sportscaster in 2011, too late to start doing NFL picks against the spread, but I'd made up my mind that I was going to do it in 2012. In 2014 the contest as you see it now really took shape, as my friend Adam Quinn joined the weekly feature with his football IQ and wit. The contest has gone back and forth between the two of us over the last five years, so if the pattern holds firm I'm going to have an awful 2019 campaign and Adam will win. But that's why we make the picks.

We have much of last year's ragtag group back for another season, though two of our top three pickers are not returning for an encore. Maybe that's for the best, with my wife Kristen not caring about football and still putting up an excellent debut campaign, but more so, we won't get our butts kicked by Adam's wife Jen and her combination of random patterns, having a neighbor pick, and whatever other devil magic she used to win last year's contest by a single game over me. We have a chance!

Coming back this year is my brother-in-law Joe, who was in contention for a good chunk of the year; Adam and Jen's son Aiden, who was also in contention for a bit until one week where he forgot to pick torpedoed his season; Geoffrey Clark, he of Chicago Bulls Confidential and 90's Youth Life fame, is also back once again. And this year, rounding out our group is Kristen and Jen's uncle Jim, making his contest debut.

So as in years past, we will be using ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em game to make our picks, and I will be tracking our picks in relation to each other here.

To open the 2019 campaign, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 16. To my fellow competitors... good luck! Let's get started!

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

2019 AFC Preview

We're just two days away from the start of the 100th NFL season, which means I have to finish up my preview series!

Yesterday I tackled the NFC as I condensed everything down for this season into two posts instead of eight. As I've done in years past, I will still do a little bit of a dive into each team along with my prediction for their season. At the end I will reveal my full playoff picture for the AFC.

You also have a couple days to get into the annual Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest! Adam and I are renewing this feature for its sixth year (eighth overall going back to the origins of this), so check back here every week for our picks against the spread!

Without further ado or shameless plugging, let's look at the AFC.


Monday, September 2, 2019

2019 NFC Preview

With the NFL season just days away, I figure it's time to get on the preview train!

I'm doing this a little bit differently compared to prior years. In the past I've done a post for each division, and I used to do one a day for eight days leading up to the season. This year I'm condensing it down from divisions to one post for each of the two conferences. It will make these posts a little bit longer, so I'll try to keep my thoughts about the individual teams brief.

Part of the reason I'm condensing this down is due to time; I think it's easier to build out two long posts especially given when I had a chance to sit down and write this out. But I'm also doing this because in talks with Adam we may have another NFL preview feature coming to lead up to my favorite series in Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.

For now, let's take a look at the NFC.