Monday, December 31, 2012

Handing Out 2012 NFL Awards

Ah, what a fun season it's been so far. A Reddit user came up with the graphic on your left showing the amazing amount of parity that has been involved this year... yes, even you, Kansas City (and this was posted in Business Insider in November!) But as this NFL season winds down, we have to pick out the best of the best and like last year decide on the winners of the major awards for the league. Some of these will be a lot easier than others, but the debate is part of what makes this so much fun. My picks for last year's award winners (not all of which were accurate, but a lot were) can be found here.


Offensive Rookie of the Year
Robert Griffin III, Redskins
258-393, 3200 yds, 20 TD, 5 INT; 120 car, 815 yds, 7 TD, 12 FUM (2 lost)

This was one of the tougher calls to make obviously, given that this is probably the best quarterback draft class in decades and the brilliance that Griffin, Andrew Luck and more surprisingly Russell Wilson have displayed this season. As awesome as Luck has been in being a key part of getting Indianapolis back to the playoffs far sooner than anyone expected, he's been asked to do a lot for that team. You hate punishing him for it, but his 18 picks is the most among rookie quarterbacks. That leaves two similar guys in RGIII and Wilson. Griffin's biggest issue are his fumbles, but he has taken care of the ball the best and has been more efficient than Wilson has, despite Wilson's lead in touchdowns. Really, if you have any of these 3 guys, your team is in good shape, but we have to pick one, and I have to go with RGIII. And honestly, if Luck or Wilson end up winning the award, I can't complain.

 
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Casey Heyward, Packers
53 tackles, 6 INT, 21 PD, 1 FF

The amazing part of this one is that Heyward hasn't been an every-down player (granted, those are getting rarer these days) but when he's been out there, he's made the most of his opportunities. He's tops among rookies with 6 interceptions and 26 pass deflections (numbers which are tied for 5th and alone in 3rd, respectively, among all players). He's been a big reason why Green Bay's defense has been better than it was last year.

Offensive Player of the Year
Peyton Manning, Broncos
400-583, 4659 yds, 37 TD, 11 INT

Peyton has to be included on here somewhere. It was a tough decision between him and Tom Brady (surprise surprise), but Manning was more efficient (Brady threw 50 more passes for a little less than 200 more yards) in terms of yards per attempt. Manning's QBR (105.8, behind only Aaron Rodgers) and Total QBR (84.1, best in the league) were higher than Brady's (98.7 and 77.1, respectively).

Defensive Player of the Year
J.J. Watt, Texans
81 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 4 FF, 2 FR

There's some good competition here with guys like Von Miller, Aldon Smith, or one of Chicago's corners (Peanut Tillman or Tim Jennings), but JJ Watt has been a freak of nature. Not only has he made a habit of getting to the quarterback and knocking the ball loose, he also possesses the great instincts to get his hands up when he can't reach the quarterback, knocking down Lord knows how many passes (NFL.com does not have him down for any). That impact earns him this title.


Coach of the Year
Bruce Arians, Colts
9-3 as interim head coach, AFC Wild Card

Not usual for an interim head coach to be here, but this one was pretty much a no-brainer. While I definitely think #Chuckstrong had a lot to do with it, he took over a 1-2 team at the time, he went 9-3 in place of Chuck Pagano when there was no expectation for him to takeover, and to do so almost seamlessly deserves a lot of credit. Granted, it helps when you have an awesome rookie quarterback and some knowledgeable veterans in your midst, but Arians' impact can't be overstated.

Top 5 Confessions of 2012

I've had this little side project in operation now for probably about 15 months, and for those of you who have been regular readers of Confessions of a Sportscaster, I thank you for supporting the fruits of my down time that aren't spent sleeping, eating, or planning a wedding with my wonderful fiancee. So with New Years Eve upon us, I wanted to count down my Top 5 posts from 2012 based on page view as a quick look back on the big storylines from 2012.

5. COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 5 (October 4)
In August I started regularly playing basketball once a week with my best friend Nathaniel, who around the same time started up an NFL blog called "Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron". It's an entertaining read with thoughtful analysis, smart picks, and awesome jokes and parodies. Around that time I approached him with the idea of doing a joint weekly post alternating between our blogs of picking games against the spread, and it came to be one of the high points of my week. For this edition, I think viewership may have been boosted by a mention of getting followed on Twitter by Green Bay's M.D. Jennings, but probably more so by having a GIF of "IT'S OVER 9000!", mentioning Bane and maybe Nathaniel's fantastic GIF of Eli Manning.

4. COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15 (December 13)
Another of the picking posts (I ended up doing all the odd numbered weeks, Nathaniel did the evens. I'd like to do this again next year, in which case we'll switch. Fairness above all else) that turned out pretty well. It was my most read picks post (though not my favorite, that honor goes to my post with the Matt Schaub PSA about getting kicked in the balls) and a fun one as well. I think most of my views were bolstered by the sheer mention of Grumpy Cat (given my most recent set of search results that have led to COAS. You roll with what's popular.)

3. Game Notes: Elgin High School vs. Auburn High School (3/9/12) (March 10)
I started this blog while I was employed as a board operator at WROK up in Rockford, Illinois in the fall of 2011 before starting my current job with Nokia back in April. Before I finished up there, I was given an opportunity to be the third man in a booth (well, top row of the bleachers at Dundee-Crown High School) with a couple long time radio pros for an IHSA sectional title game. This was a fun game to call, and I also got to see one of the best prep players in Illinois in Fred Van Vleet, now a freshman at Wichita State coming off the bench, though I'm sure his role will grow. He's probably the second best prep player I've ever seen in person other than Ryan Boatright, who I coached against as a senior in high school.



2. A Legend Tarnished (July 2)
This was a fun one to write. I had touched on the Penn State scandal a couple times prior to this one, but with continued hearing about just how far the evil on that campus reached, I was reminded of a class I took on leadership my senior year at North Central. Before posting it, I even passed it along to my professor from that course, Stephen Caliendo, to have him look it over before I posted to see what he thought. He said he thought it was "very nicely written", and he was glad that his class had a lasting impact on my thought process. He was also gracious enough to pass this post around, which I think helped greatly.






Thursday, December 27, 2012

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17


Hope you all had a Merry Christmas, dear readers! It was nice to get a little break from everything and spend time with my fiancee and her family as well as with my dad and my brother. And no, we didn't kill each other despite the differences in football teams illustrated to your left. We'll see how long that lasts depending on the Minnesota-Green Bay game on Sunday and how Logan's Bears do in the finale with Detroit.

But there are 14 other games besides those, and they all are important in the scheme of the Pigskin Pick 'Em that Nathaniel and I have undertaken this entire season, and it's been a fun ride. Even though I've led wire to wire, my lead has never been insurmountable and Nathaniel and I have both had our fair share of great jokes regarding these games and some excellent insight as well. It all comes down to this final week, as my lead holds at 3 games. We disagree on 11 games again this week though, so he has a shot for a final come-from-behind victory. He may have to do some of it from Missouri though, as he's on vacation and as a Christmas gift to me, got me his picks on Christmas Day. It was a good gift to get after I got him a Bear Claw. (No, really.)

Without further ado, let's get on with our final picks of the regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta doesn't have anything to play for on Sunday, so we probably won't see much of Matt Ryan, but they're at home and it's still the regular season. Give them a tuneup game to get their fans feeling confident so they can get ousted by Washington in the Divisional round.
Falcons. Falcons. Ah, Week 17 when you've gotten everything clinched: to sit or play your starters? That is the question. I think Mike Smith plays his starters as long as the game is competitive - which, if it's like last year's Bucs-Falcons season-ending game, won't be very long.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Lucas: Jets. Doesn't this seem like the kind of game where Rex is benefitted by Greg McElroy being able to light up a bad defense and thus somehow keep his job while Tim Tebow looks on dejectedly?
Nathaniel: Bills. Is it possible that Greg McElroy is worse than Mark Sanchez? In terms of unintentional comedy, the answer is of course "NO" but I don't think Marky Mark would've been sacked eleven times by a Chargers team playing out the string. He would've just turn the ball over two or three extra times instead. Man, I'm gonna miss the hilarity these two teams bring!

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Baltimore isn't the same team away from the Bay and Cincy is starting to get hot at the right time. I'm riding the hot hand on this one.
Nathaniel: Ravens. Baltimore still (theoretically) will have something to play for; Cincinnati will not. Thus...

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Lucas: Bears. Fun matchup to think of: what happens this season if Jay gets sacked by Ndamukong Suh? I feel like there's a possibility he might die from blunt trauma after Suh kicks him in the kidney. But I also feel like the Bears can contain Megatron (something about Peanut Tillman and sausage casing).
Nathaniel: Lions. One last misguided Lions pick for the road! I'm fairly certain half of my incorrect picks this year have involved the Loins - wouldn't mind another, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I really don't like this matchup. Tennessee got killed by Green Bay on Sunday (which was fun) and at the same time, Jacksonville's quarterback situation is worse than pretty much every team's except for Arizona. Even so, I'm taking the points.
Nathaniel: Titans. Whenever you get a chance to pick a 4.5 point favorite that lost by 48 points the previous week, you just have to do it.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Houston is still playing for home field, but they've struggled lately, and Chuck Pagano is back this week. You know how this is going to turn out.
Nathaniel: Texans. Actually rooting for the Colts this week, though, because of A): Chuck Pagano (duh) and B): the potential hilarity of Houston leading the AFC virtually the entire season and then choking the last two weeks so badly that they don't even get a bye. THAT'S WHAT YOU GET FOR NOT TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS AGAINST THE VIKINGS, YOU STEAKHEADS.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Lucas: Saints. New Orleans salvages a .500 season while Sean Payton orders a bounty on Roger Goodell, thus suspending him for another season. Was it really worth it, Sean?
Nathaniel: Panthers. Two teams with a real good shot at the playoffs next year - as long as they get better coaching out of Ron Rivera (Panthers) and the last janitor left in the building (Saints).

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5)
Lucas: Giants. This is a really high line, don't get me wrong. But Michael Vick is starting. Even with a struggling defensive line, the G-Men will probably still come up with 7 takeaways.
Nathaniel: Eagles. Godspeed, Andy. May you soon find another organization that values walrus mustaches, crazy reverse toss plays out of the shotgun inside the five-yard line, and using up both challenges in the first three minutes of the game. Your presence will be sorely missed.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. And a Weeden shall lead them. Oh wait, he's hurt.
Nathaniel: Steelers. At the risk of seeming biased, I'd just like to say the following: HAHAHAHAHA THE STEELERS ARE MISSING THE PLAYOFFS HAHAHAHAHA TAKE THAT INTO YOUR BATHROOM ROETHLISBERGER HAHAHAHAHA FIRE OMAR EPPS HAHA

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-15.5)
Lucas: Broncos. If anyone can beat this huge a spread, it's Peyton Manning against the worst team in the AFC. And with home field still up for grabs, I'm not betting against Peyton.
Nathaniel: Chiefs. I'm aware this directly contradicts my (correct) Broncos pick from last week in which I explained that if you can count on anyone to take care of business against a bad team, it's Peyton Manning. Why the change of heart this week? I'm wildly inconsistent.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Green Bay's defense pretty much shut down Chris Johnson last week, but Adrian Peterson is in another class by himself. I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks Eric Dickerson's record on Sunday. At the same time though, Aaron Rodgers is indoors. Yes please.
Nathaniel: Vikings. Seems like the teams that control their own playoff destiny AND have a home game the final week of the season usually take care of business, if only because they're being buoyed by 68,000 raucous souls who desperately want their team to get shellacked by twenty-seven the next week in the Wild-Card Round. Also, Adrian Peterson.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. These past two weeks have given me no confidence in a double digit favored Patriot team. Of course, this means Brady will throw for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns in a dominating performance. Have fun Tom.
Nathaniel: Dolphins. The Patriots are either going to win by 35 or they're going to juuuuuusssssstttt skate by and after last week's debacle in Jacksonville, I'm a little gun-shy. Only out of anger, Darth Hoodie. ONLY OUT OF ANGER. (And sometimes warmth).
Lucas note: Nathaniel wins joke of the week. Maybe of the year.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I could see Matt Leinart/Terrelle Pryor throwing for 400 yards but for only 1 score and 3 picks in one final "empty yards" performance that may or may not save Norv Turner's job. *cue downtrodden Chargers fans shaking their heads sadly*
Nathaniel: Chargers. Sadly, Carson Palmer's quest to become the first quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards AND lose 12 games in a season has come to an end. You've got lofty shoes to fill, Matt Leinart/Terrelle Pryor.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm way too confident in huge lines, but with a first round bye still up for grabs, I think the Niners go all out against an Arizona team that I would still volunteer to take maybe one snap at quarterback for... on the condition that all my medical costs are billed to the team after Justin Smith destroys half the bones in my body.
Nathaniel: 49ers. If Ken Whisenhunt has any heart at all, he won't throw Ryan Lindley out there in this game. It's been devastating enough to watch him play against merely good and above-average defenses. WHAT CHANCE DOES HE HAVE AGAINST THE 49ERS DEFENSE????? Actually on second thought, Ken, leave him in, it'll be funny.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I still hate this team for the way they acted after the Week 3 debacle, but holy crap are they really good right now.
Nathaniel: Rams. No, I haven't noticed the giant fireball shooting out of Russell Wilson's keester the past month and a half, why do you ask?

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Sorry, Tony. I'm sure you'll do everything in your power to win this game, but that RGIII fellow is just too much.
Nathaniel: Cowboys. But Washington ends up winning by one or two after Dan Bailey shanks a nineteen yard field goal with three seconds left. THIS IS YOUR SCHADENFREUDE MOMENT OF THE YEAR, AMERICA. SAVOR IT.

Records So Far
Lucas: 128-112 (8-8 last week)
Nathaniel: 125-115 (9-7 last week)

Sunday, December 23, 2012

NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Quarterfinals

Glad to see you all made it through the supposed apocalypse intact. With 4 more bowl games in the books, it's time for 4 more playoff matchups of college football.

The first round last week provided some intrigue for me with a few upsets, including one big shocker, which is why you need to decide the title on the field rather than by politics. Really, we have some fun matchups this week between a lot of good teams that fans didn't get to see during the regular season and wouldn't otherwise. No reseeding was done like in the NHL playoffs, so we're going with a straight up bracket once again.

Once again this week I'm simulating as a best of 3 with the clinching game being the official one. Higher seeds get to host, so we have 4 repeat sites for games. Weather for posted game times will be taken into account, and all simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: First Round

With the bowls underway, I figured the one week off following all the conference title games was enough time off to get the playoffs underway as well. Other divisions of football are almost done with their postseasons, but running a little ways into January isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I'm going to run this in a similar manner to last year in that each matchup will be simulated as a best-of-3 series to help ensure accuracy, but the "clinching" game will be the official result (so if a team wins the first 2 simulations, that 2nd sim will be the official one, but if the teams split the first 2 sims, the last one will be the official one). This will help avoid weird scores like I had in last year's playoff system and give some somewhat official stats to the playoffs as well. Box scores will be posted for the official games, but are only available for 60 days after this round's results are posted.

For each matchup, the higher seeded team gets to host the game, and weather will be taken into account from accurate data taken at the specified kickoff time. All games are simulated by WhatIfSports.com.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Game Notes: Dominican University @ North Central College (12/15/12)

Final Score
NCC 110, Dominican 68

Game Summary
In a more tightly contested game than Wednesday's affair, the Cardinals (6-3) started at a much slower pace this afternoon, even trailing the Stars (0-9) in the opening minutes before starting to figure things out. It was nonetheless a sloppy game as the Cardinals kept the Stars in it, not opening up a double digit lead until less than 4 minutes left in the first half. They went on a mini-run in the final couple minutes to open up a 54-38 halftime lead. The Cardinals returned from the locker room a little more sluggish, even seeing the Stars pull back to within single digits before the press just became too overwhelming and the lead gradually built. Triple digits were much less of a dramatic part of the game, as the Cardinals reached 100 points with 4:36 to play. Their 110 points tonight broke the single game school record (which I mistakenly said on Wednesday was 103, it's actually 105 from the 1984-85 team).

Key Stats
  • Larynn Shumaker (NCC): 7-8 FG, 2-3 FT, 16 pts, 10 reb (6 ofr), 1 ast, 1 stl. Larynn flat out dominated in the paint. She's 5'10" and had some dominating post moves today, especially early on. The Cardinals have a good interior presence, but with this system you won't hear a lot about it.
  • Bobbi Johns (NCC): 1-3 FG (all 3PT), 3 pts, 4 reb, 7 ast, 4 stl. Not dominating on the offensive end, but she had a great floor game. She quietly racked up those assists in spreading the ball around and made some great plays on defense to come up with steals or knock the ball loose for teammates.
  • Katie Budz (DOM): 7-15 FG (2-4 3PT), 4-4 FT, 20 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl. Budz was easily the smallest player on the floor at 5'1", but she's incredibly quick and was able to get some easy baskets in breaking the Cardinals' press as well as hitting those couple threes and playing decent defense.
North Central System Watch
  • Line Changes: about 40. I forgot to get the final tally from the official scorer before I left this afternoon to go catch the men's game at Benedictine, but Coach Roof was in top substitution form today. The leader in minutes was Emily Murphy with 19. Given the defense the Cardinals play, you have to give these girls some rest on the bench.
  • NCC 3pt: 13-45 (28.9%). We hit the mark Coach Roof set for a per-game average of attempts this season, but a lot of these weren't falling. If we're hitting around 40 percent of these (I would say 15-20 threes a game), this team is probably going to be fine, especially if the defense is playing extremely well.
  • Dominican Turnovers: 43. Three different Stars had 8 turnovers apiece, which is a ton. Of these 43 giveaways, the Cardinals picked up 34 steals (Michelle Todd had 8 of those). They were able to get in the passing lanes for much of the game or force a lot of passes by Dominican, turning the tables from last year's squad.
Final Thoughts 
Coach Roof asked me after the game today if it's more fun to announce their games this year as opposed to last year. It definitely is, for two reasons. One is because we're winning, and that always makes it fun, and the system we play in allows me to yell "THREEEEEEEE!" a lot, which is my favorite part of doing public address and trying to provide a home court advantage.

That being said, games like today made me worry a bit about this team as we approach the gauntlet that is the CCIW. When we're hitting threes, this team is all but unstoppable, and I think for the purposes of this system easy layups at the other end don't matter too much. Unfortunately, they make things very uneasy. The Cardinals played up on everybody, not leaving a safety back, and Dominican took advantage of this with several home run passes that led to a ton of easy points early in the game.

As the official scorer and my old friend and mentor Evan Bredeson were saying today, that's fine when you're hitting threes, but if the Cardinals play like they did early today against the cream of the CCIW, we're going to be in trouble. Teams like Wesleyan (even though the defending national champs aren't quite as good so far this year), North Park and Carthage would give this team fits. I still think mixing in a conventional 2-3 zone a little more would be helpful, but we'll see how much this team continues to gel.

The Cardinals are off to Las Vegas next weekend for the Las Vegas Hoopla tournament, then have some time off before opening CCIW play at Elmhurst on January 2nd. My next report will likely come Saturday, January 5th when we host Wheaton. The Cardinals have locked up a winning non-conference record this season, but they went 6-5 in that stretch last year before they hit the Gauntlet. Hopefully we can go in with a little more confidence this year.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

You remember when I had a big lead on Nathaniel in our NFL picks series? Yeah, me neither. Well, kind of.

4 weeks into the NFL season, I had a 9 game lead. For the most part since then I've held anywhere between a 4 and 8 game lead. It's down to 2 now with Nathaniel picking games like he shoots jumpers on Wednesdays when we play Knockout and H-O-R-S-E. I'm fearing COAS might end up posting pro-Bears propaganda after the season to honor our wager. Thankfully I don't have to worry about other potential sabotage like a post lauding the merits of Brad Miller as a top-50 all time NBA player or something since our other competitor keeps forgetting to lock in his picks.

Now that I'm done freaking out (hopefully), here's our Week 15 picks. We disagree on another 8 game this week, so I could be looking up at Nathaniel like I was during football on Wednesday as he used his superior size and strength to outmuscle me for touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Andy Reid gets one. And only one. If they win this week, they probably win out and Reid's job will be safe for whatever insane reason.
Nathaniel: Eagles. Here it comes. Here comes the season-ending four-game winning streak that makes the Eagles' 7-9 season suddenly seem respectable, Nick Foles look like the quarterback of the future, and Andy Reid the recipient of "one last chance, we swear!" Cue six million Eagles fans screaming "NOOOOO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!" at the top of their lungs.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Falcons. There's waaaay too much voodoo magic involved here. I'm taking the team that seems to have the magic powers at home until the playoffs start. We aren't there yet...
Nathaniel: Giants. The Falcons are basically last year's Packers except that instead of being the proud employer of a quarterback having one of the greatest years ever, they instead employ an above-average quarterback. Scary #1 seed right here, guys!

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. Green Bay might be getting healthy at the perfect time and the Bears just keep losing guys. And knowing how Jay seems to play against Green Bay, we could be looking at a 6 sack, 3 pick performance again.

Nathaniel: Bears. No pressure here, Lovie. It's not like your job rides on the outcome of this game or anything...



Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Even if Kirk Cousins is filling in for RG3, I just don't think the Browns could keep up with these guys, despite their defense playing really well of late.
Nathaniel: Redskins. I realize this line was made under the assumption that RGIII doesn't play, but even then...huh? The NFL will still allow the Redskins to run the ball without RGIII, right? I don't know, maybe I'm drinking too much of the Kirk Cousins Kool-Aid...

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Adrian Peterson is running rampant over too many people right now to pick against him. You know, as long as Christian Ponder isn't being dumb with the football.
Nathaniel: Rams. Bill Musgrave: Well, Leslie, it might be tough to run against the Rams this week. They only give up four yards per carry and word on the street is Jeff Fisher's planning on putting eleven men and a midget the referees can't see in the box on Sunday.
Leslie Frazier (thinking): ...the hell with it. RUN ADRIAN SIXTY TIMES ANYWAY!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Both these teams are bad, and I think Miami wins because Jacksonville is worse, but I think 7.5 is a lot to be giving the Dolphins.
Nathaniel: Dolphins. The Chad Henne Reunion Bowl! America awaits with baited breath for this classic rematch of the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoffs, won by the Jaguars in a squeaker, 62-7. If you can find a more classic NFL matchup on the slate this weekend...congratulations. You have eyes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. I've avoided the bounty talk for months not knowing what to make of it all, but if an arbitrator says there was enough evidence of an illegal program and that there was conduct detrimental to the league... then there was probably evidence detrimental to the league. I'm fine with the players not being suspended and fine with Sean Payton sitting this year out. They get a big win to satisfy the masses before being ensured a playoff absence.
Nathaniel: Buccaneers. Hold on, I think David Wilson is still running through the Saints' kick coverage units. Sometimes I think it would be fun to be a kick returner against such a porous return unit and try to picture what I would do under the same circumstances. Then, after watching my knee blow up after I get hit at the three-yard line, I return to my bag of Cheetos and belch loudly.
Lucas note: Come on buddy, you can use that strength you showed yesterday to get to at least the 5.


Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. So the Ravens get rid of a pretty good offensive coordinator in Cam Cameron... and replace him with a robot? I mean, at least Grumpy Cat would have some emotion about getting promoted.
Nathaniel: Ravens. The best part of Cam Cameron getting fired? THE RETURN OF THE JIM CALDWELL REACTION SHOT! Here's a fun drinking game for all you designated drivers out there: every time Caldwell blinks, take a shot. Your sober and clear-headed driving on the ride home will thank you later!

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Lucas: Colts. #Chuckstrong's powers are spreading beyond Indy. Houston got smoked by the Patriots on Monday and I think that will leave them reeling early in this game before they retake control. Or Indy amplifies its powers.
Nathaniel: Texans. I look forward to your latest installment of Bizarre Backdoor Cover Theater, Indianapolis.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (+5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'm starting to worry this team is getting hot at the right time... even though odds are they'll fall apart at some point in the playoffs. Probably on the road.
Nathaniel: Seahawks. I would appreciate it if all the blabbermouthing talking heads would refrain from mentioning Seattle's poor road record this week since, you know...IT'S A ROAD GAME FOR BUFFALO, TOO!! This also would probably as good a time as any to mention that I have eaten inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto and highly recommend the view from inside the stadium when the lights are off. Really brings out the flavor in your barbequed pork sandwich, in my opinion.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
Lucas: Lions. Even though I'm sure Jim Schwartz will do whatever he can to lose this game, Arizona is so bad they're holding tryouts for quarterback. I think this kid from San Diego I saw at work on Tuesday would be a good candidate. Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't waste your throw, brave San Diegan!
From the San Diego CHP. Click to enlarge.
Nathaniel: Lions. A partial list of people who would make better quarterbacks than anyone currently on the Cardinals roster:
-- Jim Abbott.
-- Bethany Hamilton.
-- Admiral Lord Nelson.
-- Aron Ralston.
-- The drummer from Def Leppard.
-- Nemo from the Disney/Pixar film Finding Nemo.

Any additions or suggestions are welcome. Please send to: 
Arizona Cardinals
P.O. Box 888
Phoenix, AZ 85001
Lucas note: I'll see if I can send that San Diego kid their way.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. We've had a good run with you, Norv Turner. Hopefully a new crop of incompetent head coaches will arise to replace you, Andy Reid, Romeo Crennel, Jason Garrett, and possibly Lovie (which would kill me. I've had too much fun breaking everything down into quarters).
Nathaniel: Panthers. Although, if this Ron Rivera homecoming is anything like his earlier one in Chicago this year, Carolina will still find a way to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. THEY JUST CAN'T KILL NORV.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I know they got killed by San Diego this past weekend, but they can't lose to 2 bad coaches in a row... right?
Nathaniel: Cowboys. In honor of such a classic NFL matchup, here's a GIF of Jerry Jones scratching his crotch. 


Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Somehow Roger Goodell survived the Black Hole last week. Kansas City won't be so lucky.
Nathaniel: Raiders. Kansas City, I really think you stumbled on something when you had Jamaal Charles run eighty yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game last week. Maybe you should try that play more often? By my count, you'd score somewhere in the neighborhood of 84-91 points and Jamaal Charles would get about 1,000 yards rushing, which I'm pretty sure would break the single game rushing record. Just think about it!

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Lucas: Patriots. New picking rule: Don't bet against Tom Brady at home.
Nathaniel: 49ers. According to this week's official Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron power rankings, these are the two best teams in their respective conferences. Which means...we're probably ending up with a Falcons-Colts Super Bowl.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
Lucas: Titans. Mark Sanchez was strangely competent last week and of course Greg McElroy was deactivated so Rex would have no choice but to go with him over Tebow. Sorry Simmons, Fourth and God II probably isn't happening.
Nathaniel: Titans. Mike Tirico's utter disdain for hyping this game last week was priceless. "SOMEHOW the Jets are still in playoff contention..." Don't worry about Jon, though. He'll be hyped up and ready to tell you why Mike DeVito is a Gruden Grinder!

Records so far
Lucas: 109-99 (8-8 last week)
Nathaniel: 107-101 (12-4 last week)

Game Notes: Milwaukee School of Engineering @ North Central College(12/12/12)

Final Score
NCC 102, MSOE 49

Game Summary
The outcome of this one was never really in doubt as the Cardinals (5-3) struck first and never trailed as the lead slowly ballooned. The Raiders (0-8) dressed only 7 players and just couldn't keep up with the fast pace the Cardinals were dictating. It was a 66-28 lead at the half as Coach Roof called off the dogs late in the first half. The second half had a much less frantic pace but the Cardinals maintained that lead. It seemed for a while that they'd threaten the program scoring record but were barely able to break 100, topping it with less than a minute to go.

Key Stats
Emily Murphy scoring 2 of her 16 points in the first half.
  • NCC: 30 offensive rebounds: Usually that total will lead to you winning games, and it did so big time tonight. The Cardinals won the overall rebounding battle 52-32, and if they can keep that up, this team will go pretty far.
  • Emily Murphy (NCC): 8-15 FG, 16 pts, 9 reb (7ofr), 1 ast, 2 stl: No one on this Cardinal team is averaging more than 20 minutes a game, which is nice, so to see Emily doing this much damage is a good thing. She missed a few layups late in the game, but overall played very well once again.
  • Megan Kroll (MSOE): 5-13 FG (0-1 3pt), 12-16 FT, 22 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl: Kroll played all 40 minutes and gave this game her all. She also got plenty of free throw practice with constant attacks of the basket. She showed why she's the team's leading scorer so far.
North Central System Watch
This feature will keep track of how the new system Coach Roof installed this season is taking effect based on 3 main figures. One of these is totally arbitrary, but interesting to note, while the other 2 are key stats that I'm ignoring above since they're featured here.
  • Line Changes: 31.  The Cardinals subbed out 18 times before halftime and another 13 in the 2nd half. This is just a fun thing the official scorer and I like to keep track of on the side.
  • NCC 3pt: 16-44 (36.4%). Coming into tonight this team was averaging 50 three's a game, so the average was brought back down to where Coach Roof wants it. If this team is hitting between 15 and 20 of those per game, they should be okay in most games assuming the rest of their shooting keeps up.
  • MSOE Turnovers: 31. The Cardinals stopped their press before halftime and settled into a 2-3 zone, forcing 20 turnovers before the intermission. Of those 31 turnovers, an astounding 23 were off steals, which is great. It got the Cardinals running and set up some quick, easy buckets.

Final Thoughts
The one thing that really concerned me tonight was layups and free throws. The Cardinals did miss a bunch of easy layups, especially in the second half, which you can't get away with in CCIW play. More alarming to me though was the 4-11 they shot from the stripe. Those are free points you can't give away. Other than that, it was an excellent night for this team that saw joy from the bench when Amanda Hoye hit the three to break the century mark. In talking to some of the North Central staff during halftime, we don't have the official single game scoring record (an unofficial total I heard was 108), but the highest mark I can find is a game from the 1983 national championship team which dropped 103 on Millikin. Maybe Saturday against Dominican we can see another shot at it.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Building the Greatest Team of All Time

The fun argument in the NBA today is all about who is the greatest. The best player right now or how different players from different eras compare in terms of who is the greatest of all time. We do it with teams as well. It makes for some fun debates and if you have the technology to build these all-time teams to see how they stack up, more power to you.

Julius Erving takes flight over the rim. For reals.
I'm no stranger to building all-time teams. For a few years now (though we've had a long hiatus from this due to a lack of overlap of free time on our schedules), my friend Nathaniel and I have been breaking out an old classic in NBA Live 2002 for the Playstation 1. Amazingly, we still have one that works and works pretty well. A few years ago we decided to undertake a quest to build a team of the best players we could assemble up to that point (so obviously, this is pre-LeBron, and guys like Kobe and Tim Duncan weren't quite what they are now) from all-time teams the game and already assembled. Thus, the Aurora Possums were born.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

An Alternate Look at a College Football Playoff

If you're a college football fan, it's either been a fun week or an infuriating one. Monday I put up my final playoff seedings for the Death to the BCS playoffs just before the BCS unveiled their pairing for their big bowls and the elitists started whining about undeserved bids or teams getting screwed over. In my happiness for a school like Northern Illinois getting to go to Miami for the Orange Bowl, I needed to have a calm resolve that deep down, yes, there were other teams that deserved an in to play in some big games. Which is, again, why we need a playoff sooner and better than the one in the works for 2014.

Obviously if you've been reading COAS over the course of its lifespan, you'll know I am a major advocate of a college football playoff at the highest level. For the most part my arguments have come from Death to the BCS, but in the interests of reading another perspective/needing something to do on the train to and from work, I bought a book by Scott Galloway called It's Possible! Realignment And Playoffs-College Football's Opportunity. In it, he outlines a much more radical system for deciding a national champion on the field.

Personally, I think his system is a double-edged sword. I like his ideas about conference realignment, something else that has been rampant in recent years. Instead of the conferences being all about money, he aligns everyone geographically, trying to get teams from the same state in one conference as much as possible. Not only does it make for more travel sense (in sports beyond just football) it would also liven up football in some of these "mid-major" schools by forcing traditional powers to visit them every other year (for example, Alabama visiting in-state school Troy). Obviously, the powers that be would not like getting rid of their current arrangement due to greed and a sense of pride or elitism, depending on how you look at it. I do think the sport would benefit from this, however.

On the other end of the spectrum is his actual playoff format. If you can see close enough in the image above, you will see his cover includes a 32 team playoff bracket. In the context of his new system, the FBS teams are split up into 16 conferences (as described above) where the top 2 teams from each conference make the postseason. Depending on how you determine these conference champions, this system may have a problem (he doesn't explicitly say if it's by conference record or by overall record). If it's purely by conference record, you basically have a system like now where teams can schedule weak outside of their conferences with no reprecussions. Overall record would probably be a better indicator if you can keep other teams' schedules similar (like the NFL does). College football supposedly has the best regular season because it's "the most meaningful" or "every game matters", even though the reality is far from that. We want to maintain this (which is where I think the Death to the BCS system does a pretty good job. Not winning your conference isn't a death blow since you can grab an at-large berth). I also think 32 is too many, though percentage wise it would still be a smaller number of teams playing for the title than the four major pro leagues (33% for the MLB, 37.5% for the NFL, and over half of the NBA and NHL).


On the whole though, it is a system that makes you think, and in some respects definitely makes sense. It is a book I would recommend as it's a quick read, but a good one and makes some pretty persuasive arguments. I'd imagine Kirk Herbstreit would still be off his rocker about it, but there seems to be a fun aspect to that now. Especially in DeKalb.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

2012 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs Preview

Before we go into college football, I want to take a moment to remember Kassandra Perkins, who was killed by her boyfriend and Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday before he took his own life. I have said on more than one occasion that sports should not take precedence over life and death, and this news was a very sobering reminder of that yesterday. My thoughts and prayers go out to the family and friends of this couple, especially to their 3 month old baby, who now has to live without either of his parents.

On the collegiate playing field, we saw some great games this weekend which were a good way to end the regular season. And now this momentum off big wins leads to... a long layoff before glorified exhibition games. I won't go into a full manifesto on the evils of the BCS as it's almost done and I've already done that here (though the playoff format has since been revamped), but for the good of college football I'm going to continue a tradition I started last year and set up a playoff to be simulated here on COAS.

If you've been following along all season I've been ranking the non-conference schedules of teams all over the FBS and eventually putting together tentative playoff brackets before this final, official one. The bracket obviously has some big changes due to certain teams winning their conference championship games, and seedings may differ from prior incarnations, only because I need to look at the overall body of work here at the end of the season. It's a hard job to try to do solo, but I think it's more fair than the current BCS (or even the new playoff, though it's a start, and Cubs 3rd baseman Ian Stewart agrees with me). The final rankings from the regular season can be found here.