Game Notes: UW-Platteville @ North Central College (11/29/16)

Final Score
UW-Platteville 57, NCC 40

Game Summary
This was a tough matchup from the outset, but the Cardinals (3-1) were able to open up a 10-5 lead in the early going. The Pioneers (5-1) clamped down on defense and got their offense rolling though, exploding for a 22-4 run over the next ten minutes to take complete control of the game. North Central recovered a little bit and got a three at the buzzer to make it 31-24 heading into the break. Coach Raridon lit into his team in the locker room, and they responded in the first couple minutes, scoring five points on their first two possessions and were able to tie the game at 35 with about 12 minutes to play. But the Pioneers answered immediately to retake the lead, then got a three point play to extend the lead to five. A North Central bucket cut it to three, and the Pioneers responded with nine straight points before an NCC three with 6:35 to play marked the last points of the night the Cardinals would muster.

Key Stats

• NCC: 16-55 FG (29.1%). The Pioneers came into this game holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor, and under 30 percent from deep. They seemed to be everywhere in their 2-3 zone last night and forced some tough shots, but the Cardinals were just as guilty for this. They had a lot of terrible possessions where they just passed the ball around the perimeter and no one tried to go create a shot until the shot clock was nearly out. They've done this for a chunk of the season to date, but it hadn't cost them until last night.
• Robert Duax (UWP): 4-8 FG (2-3 3PT), 5-7 FT; 15 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 3 stl. Duax was Platteville's best player coming in, and he sure played like it in this one. Giving up nine rebounds to an opponent is one thing, but to one of their guards? Even if he's one of their leading rebounders, this is an embarrassing total to allow.
• Alex Sorenson/Connor Raridon: 10-30 FG (2-10 3PT), 3-6 FT; 25 pts, 15 reb (3 off), 5 ast, 4 blk, 2 stl. This... is not ideal. Connor was repeatedly forced into tough fallaway shots all night, and Alex took seven threes, only hitting one. Part of that was a credit to the Pioneer defense for locking down the inside, but you need your best guys to play better than this if you want to win.

Final Thoughts
I don't know how well you'll be able to hear it on the video above, but Todd Raridon's voice was shot in the second half. He could be heard outside the locker room at halftime, he was that upset about what transpired in the first half. To the Cardinals' credit, the team responded early in the second half, but that energy only lasts so long.

All in all, this was an embarrassing loss. You're at home, you're ranked sixth in the country, and you're hosting a team you blew out by 30 at their place last year. This shouldn't happen. The thought I had right at the end last night was that this was a trap game. And the Pioneers sprung the trap perfectly.

I don't want to overreact to this loss too much; it's one game, and one game doesn't define a season. But if the Cardinals play like this against Illinois Wesleyan on Saturday, they're going to lose by at least 30. Hopefully they play sufficiently motivated and angry in that one.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Automatic Bid Games

Tuesday is normally my day of looking at NCSS rankings for college football. But at this point, we are done with all non-conference games, and this coming week is the slowest week in terms of college football games. However, this is a critical week for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

Of our ten conferences at the FBS level, eight of them are large enough to accommodate conference championship games (and we'll have a ninth next year because the morons running the Big 12 decided to invalidate the regular season with one in a ten-team conference). The winners of seven of these games will receive automatic bids to the Death to the BCS Playoffs. The Big 12 doesn't have an official title game yet, but has a de facto one this year. And finally, the Sun Belt has a couple games that will impact the playoff picture.

So below, I will outline every game that impacts these automatic bids and how they play out with regards to the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Mock Bracket

And now we get down to the nitty gritty.


I'm still in a state of mourning, but I'll get over it. Wheaton deserved its win on Saturday. And so did all of the teams who won this past weekend as the Death to the BCS Playoff race gets even more complicated.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, the Death to the BCS Playoffs are the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a 16 team playoff at the highest level of college football, where all conference champions get an automatic bid, and the rest of the field is filled with at large teams. Those auto bids will all be settled next week: eight conference have a conference championship game, the Big 12 has a de facto championship game based on how the schedule aligned, and the Sun Belt will come down to a couple games and some tiebreakers to determine its champion.

From there, the field gets seeded from 1 to 16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. This means finishing in the top two will net you three home games, a #3 or #4 seeds gets you a pair, and finishing in the top eight gives you one in the first round. These figures all assume, of course, that chalk gets rocked. But how do we decide the seeding? Wetzel, Peter, and Passan's idea was for a selection committee to do so, but in my case, I do it myself with the help of some metrics. I use (to an extent) Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics all organically combine to build the exact playoff field.

And so, for the final time this season: let's create a mock bracket.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 13

Welp, just when we think things are pretty set, more chaos unfolds.

I'm also in mourning today as North Central lost to archrival Wheaton in the second round of the D-III Playoffs on Saturday. Never has holding onto the Little Brass Bell felt so hollow.

I imagine most of the rankings compared to last week are going to remain the same, with maybe some minor changes here and there. If you need a refresher on how these metrics work, you can view those in my season introduction post.

Let's check the numbers.

Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (11/25/16)

Final Score
NCC 88, Aurora 78

Game Summary
This was a pretty tough game the whole way as the Cardinals (3-0) got out to an early lead, but a 7-0 Spartans (2-2) run gave Aurora the lead. The Cardinals battled back with a 10-0 run of their own to regain control and would lead by as many as 16 before ultimately taking a 47-37 lead into the break. The Spartans came out firing in the second half, cutting the lead down to three points early, but North Central answered with key baskets. The Spartans didn't give up, narrowing the lead to five with a little over seven minutes left, but the Cardinals held onto the ball for a minute and a half before getting a couple free throws, picked up a steal, and got a three to reopen the lead to 10. Aurora would get no closer than eight the rest of the way as the Cardinals picked up their third straight win and avenged last year's loss.

Key Stats

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 8-14 FG (1-3 3PT), 6-9 FT; 24 pts, 3 reb (2 off), 9 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. Todd Raridon has been riding his youngest son the last couple games, as Connor never left the floor on Friday. But he was phenomenal on offense, doing a lot of driving and fading away, but he also did a great job down low and distributing the ball. He looked possibly a little winded late in the game when he was missing free throws, but he played well again.
• Aiden Chang (NCC): 6-10 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-4 FT; 19 pts, 1 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk. Aiden had arguably the best game of his career on Friday. His 19 points are a career high, and he came up with a few huge buckets. His old fashioned three point play capped North Central's 10-0 run in the first half, and he followed that up on the next possession with a four point play. He's really developing into a great player.
• Aurora: 13-27 3PT (48.1%). As I was getting ready at Merner on Friday and looking over Aurora's stats, one thing caught my eye: this team can shoot. They were at 39-93 coming into this contest, good for a 41.9 percent clip. They eclipsed that in this game, as those threes are by and large what kept them in the game. Pat Kramp hit five of his six threes, and Ty Carlson added four on six attempts.

Final Thoughts
I definitely thought North Central was the better team in this one, and the argument was made that it shouldn't have been this close. The Cardinals won the rebounding battle 43-23 and shot 54.2 percent from the floor. But they let Aurora stay close thanks to their hot shooting, which isn't the greatest of signs, but it's still early in the season.

I was a little embarrassed by the perceived "home court advantage" in this one, as many Aurora faithful made the short trek to Naperville for this contest. This is a good thing for the sport, but they were very loud... significantly louder than the North Central faithful in attendance. Granted, this was a Black Friday game, but I was not encouraged by this. Hopefully conference play will be better.

Maybe the best part of this contest came right at the end. Multiple players dove for a loose ball along Aurora's bench and took out head coach Lance Robinson as well as pretty much completely destroying his chair. I didn't get a chance to take a picture of it, but one of the legs was completely bent out of shape. All parties involved were all right, which is the most important thing.

This was the second game of a five game home stand for the Cardinals. They return to action on Tuesday as they welcome in Wisconsin-Platteville for a 7:00 tip.

Game Notes: Alma College @ North Central College (11/23/16)

Final Score
NCC 78, Alma 59

Game Summary
This was a tight game early on as the Scots (1-3) took the early lead and traded baskets. The Cardinals (2-0) then embarked on a 13-0 run to take firm control of the ball game. The Scots did manage to keep it around that 10-12 point range for a decent amount of the half and even cut the lead to eight with about two minutes to go, but the Cardinals scored the half's final seven points to make it 43-28 at the break. Alma would get no closer than 14 in the second half, and North Central was able to send in the end of the bench for the final 110 seconds of the contest.

Key Stats

• Connor Raridon (NCC): 10-13 FG (3-4 3PT), 1-2 FT; 24 pts, 10 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. Connor's fifth career double double was a pretty efficient one, as he shot very well and had a great floor game. He commanded the boards well, distributed the ball well as the game went on, and played 37 minutes including some time bringing the ball up.
• Alex Sorenson (NCC): 7-15 FG (2-6 3PT), 0-1 FT; 16 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 2 stl. Kristen came to this game and noted that Alex played really well. He put up these numbers in just 25 minutes of action, which is pretty impressive. Given the lead he was able to sit for most of the second half to get Jack Bronec and Sam Fehrle some minutes, which was good. Alex struggled from deep a little bit, but he'll hit those shots when he needs to.
• Trevor Gernaat (ALMA): 2-8 FG (2-6 3PT), 2-2 FT; 8 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast. Gernaat was the guy I was most worried about in this one having looked at the numbers. But the Cardinals did a great job keeping him in check tonight. He hit a couple threes, but the team as a whole shot just 27.3 percent from deep, with Gernaat hitting two of his team's six total threes. He also turned the ball over four times, so for the Cardinals to shut him down was a great sign.

Final Thoughts

Alma came into the season ranked #14 by D3Hoops.com, which some thought was a little high given what they lost. But they started this game very well despite getting stuck in traffic on the way to Naperville. Eventually they just succumbed to North Central's superior talent. I worry a bit that the Cardinals can get a little careless, but it's only their second game of the season. I'm not super concerned yet, not until we get into conference play. North Central will be back in action on Friday renewing the rivalry with Aurora University at home at 2:00pm.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, I'm trying to get a beat on everything. Yes, this means I'm spending my 27th birthday looking over NFL games.

Unfortunately this past week, I performed worse than NFL place kickers. I'm still out of the basement, but Adam took four of our five disputed games this past week to rebuild his lead over me. I also have a Google sheet with updated standings through last week with a breakdown of how we're picking in relation to each other.

We're done with bye weeks finally, so we're back to the 16 games. Adam has decided, despite his success last week, that he needs some mojo. He had Aiden pick games based on mascot names, and he would come up with the justifications. Because of that, the disparity this week is enormous. We disagree on a whopping 12 games, which I think is a COAS record.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Bad Calls, Missed Opportunities, and Lawsuits

I haven't paid a ton of attention to high school football in years. Aurora Christian had a strong football program when I was in high school, and they made three state title games in the six years after I graduated, winning two of them. Logan has been on the roster of Aurora Central Catholic's football team for four years, and they made the playoffs three of his years. None of those trips resulted in deep runs, but it's not like ACC was a slouch by any stretch of the imagination. I also called some DVC football games during my tenure at WONC, including an overtime thriller between Naperville North and Neuqua Valley, as well as one of the classic Naperville North-Naperville Central battles that ended up coming down to a missed field goal as time expired that allowed Central to escape with a win.

I can appreciate good football, even at the high school level. But I've also been critical of the powers that be at many levels of the sport... okay, mainly at the NFL, and to a degree at the Cartel that allowed the BCS to carry out injustice for so long. But bad decisions can stretch down even to the prep level. And we saw that in action over the weekend.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 13

We move on from my taking potshots at Nick Saban to Rivalry Week in college football! How fitting, then, that the fate of the universe will be decided in a second round playoff game in Naperville on Saturday. Beat Wheaton.

In the meantime, conference championship games will get decided this weekend. A few matchups are already set, but others require action to determine those matchups, which will help determine our Death to the BCS Playoffs field.

But there are also a number of non-conference games, but unlike last week, the cowardice is complete. Or at least, it should be. My season introduction post contains an explanation for how the NCSS metric works. Let's get to it!

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Mock Bracket

With the chaotic part of the week out of the way, it's time to sort through the craziness and establish a pecking order.

The D-III playoffs saw chalk advance, and a battle for the fate of the universe will take place in Naperville on Saturday as North Central gets a rematch with Wheaton in Round 2. Meanwhile, several teams are still fighting at the FBS level for conference championships and a berth in the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

This is a concept created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan several years ago, where instead of the BCS nonsense or the slightly improved, but in their eyes not quite there College Football Playoff, the Death to the BCS Playoff system is a 16 team field where every conference champion gets an automatic bid, and the rest of the field is filled with at large berths. The field is then seeded 1-16, with home field advantage given to the higher seeds in the first three rounds.

I credit them for this because it was originally their idea. They wanted a selection committee to select the teams and seedings. I've chosen for a few years to take their system and fill the field based on a little bit of the eye test on my part, as well as some metrics chosen to help remove any bias I may have. You will see listed after each team in this field a set of stats. I use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP) as well as computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), and organically combine all of these to build that 16 team field.

So without further ado, let's build a mock playoff field.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 12

Hope you enjoyed Nick Saban Is A Coward Week! All the games are in the books for the week, and the regular season is almost complete. There are just two weeks left, but we can worry about that in a bit.

There were a number of FCS games on the docket this past weekend, and those games are worth no Playoff Points, so we might see some shifts in the rankings from last week.

There was a little chaos as well this week, and we'll eventually see how that impacts the playoff picture. If you're unfamiliar with the Playoff Points system, you can view a primer in my season introductory post. Let's get to the scores.

Game Notes: Piedmont College @ North Central College (11/18/16)

Final Score
NCC 101, Piedmont 67

Game Summary
It was a very sluggish start for both teams, but the Lions (1-1) got the first basket of the game to take the early lead. The Cardinals (1-0) finally broke through shortly after that, scoring nine unanswered points to take control, and they led 18-8 after one quarter. Piedmont scored the first four points of the second quarter, but then the Cardinals broke open the floodgates, hitting five straight threes to key a 15-1 run that turned a six point lead into 20, and the Cardinals only kept it up from there, raising the advantage to 30 by halftime. The Lions managed to trim the deficit to about 23 a couple times in the third quarter, but the Cardinals kept hitting big shots to increase the lead, and the Lions were unable to get over the hump. North Central sealed the Big Macs in the final minute to the delight of a player's family sitting behind me.

Key Stats

• Anita Sterling (NCC): 4-7 FG (3-5 3PT), 4-6 FT; 15 pts, 4 reb, 2 stl. Anita isn't one of the primary offensive threats, but she has typically been pretty efficient on her shots. She led all scorers Friday night and did a nice job on the defensive end as well.
• Siarra O'Neill (NCC): 3-8 FG (2-4 3PT); 8 pts, 2 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 1 blk. The numbers here aren't outstanding, but I was really impressed with O'Neill's game on Friday. She was driving hard to the basket a lot and shot well from beyond the arc, while also playing solid defense.
• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 1-8 FG (all 3PT), 2-2 FT; 4 pts, 10 reb (4 off), 2 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk. Jamie struggled from beyond the arc in this one, but she was a dominant force on the glass and picked up her first block on the year. She wasn't playing safety as much as she has in prior years, so that explains the low block total on the night, but she did alter a number of other looks.

North Central System Watch

• Piedmont Turnovers: 44. I'm sure every team looks at tape of this North Central team going in, so teams know what they're in for, but Piedmont looked utterly unprepared for this game. They committed 16 turnovers in the first quarter alone and were up to 30 by halftime. Many of these were passes well off the mark, but the Cardinals also picked up 23 teals, led by Paula Zerante's four.
• NCC 3PT: 18-65 (27.7%). This is about par for the course for the Cardinals. They started very cold in this one, hitting just one of 11 attempts in the opening quarter. But they caught fire in the second quarter, hitting five in a row to break it open. If you're new to seeing stuff about North Central, know that they take this high number of threes every game, and percentage largely doesn't matter when you're taking that many; you'll eventually start hitting.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita picked up one charge fairly early in the game, keeping up her usual pace from prior years. The Cardinals did commit a couple charges early in the game, however.

Final Thoughts
I'm going to be honest, I expected a closer game. Piedmont was very good last year, and while they lost a few key pieces, they beat a pretty good Birmingham Southern team earlier in the week at home. I just think they were utterly unprepared for the intensity of North Central's defense, and it showed in the turnover numbers.

During halftime of this game I got a chance to say hello to a couple of leaders from the legendary 2015 Cardinal team in Tess Godhardt and Bobbi Johns. Both were very impressed with the play of the freshmen on this squad, as was I overall. They're going to be very valuable going forward, and this team might be a huge threat to the CCIW, maybe even bigger than anticipated.

It's a fair amount of time on the road now for the Cardinals, as this was their lone non-conference home game. They play in the Battle of Chicago Avenue on Tuesday and aren't back home until December 3rd when we kick off CCIW play against Illinois Wesleyan.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

The coalition is chugging along, and I'm continuing to move on up!

It was a reasonably strong week all around, but we have a new leader in the clubhouse: Logan took over first place after a strong week last week. Meanwhile, I took four of five disputed games from Adam. He still holds a one game lead over me, but he's out of the top spot now. We're all still fairly bunched up at this stage, though.

I have a Google sheet with updated standings through last week with a breakdown of how we're picking in relation to each other. I now have the best hero pick percentage, but out of three games, you can scream "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!" at me. I can take it.

This week, Adam and I disagree on five games out of 14 again. With a chance to tie or overtake him, and possibly go grab first place, let's get to the picks!

2016-17 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Yesterday saw the official start of the NCAA Division III basketball season. It also saw me get a jump on the season with a preview of North Central's women's basketball team. Today, I'm switching my focus over to the men.

Like with the women, the main version of the website contains a standings page for the CCIW for the men over on the right sidebar. If you're viewing the mobile version of Confessions of a Sportscaster, this feature won't be available, so you'll need to scroll to the bottom and click to view the full version of the website. I figured this would be a better feature than just taking screenshots of an Excel spreadsheet like I did last season.

Anyway, now that NCC's roster is up and I have a chance to look things over, let's take a gander at what to expect for the coming winter.

Game Notes: College of Faith vs Hope College (11/16/12)

I normally save these kinds of features for games I attend, and try to do them immediately after the game is over, but I'm doing a retroactive Game Notes on the fourth anniversary of this game because, why not. This game deserves its recognition.

Final Score
Hope 118, College of Faith 20

Game Summary
Where do I even begin? The Dutchmen (1-0) won the opening tip, got a dunk four seconds into the game, and it just went downhill from there. The Mighty Believers (0-1) (yes, that was their actual team name at the time), fell behind 7-0 before scoring their first basket 100 seconds into the game. After going to their bench to get the starters some rest following a made free throw, the Dutch went on a 24-0 run spanning six and a half minutes to blow it open. The Mighty Believers managed a few more points, breaking into double digits with a little over five minutes to play in the half, but Hope scored the final 19 points of the stanza to lead 67-11 going into the break. They scored four unanswered to start the second half, surrendered a jumper, and then the floodgates opened as Hope went on an 11 minute, 30-0 run capped by a three that put Hope over the century mark before a three with about seven and a half minutes left snapped the drought. The Dutchmen had a chance to make it a 100 point margin, but after a missed jumper at the end of the shot clock with 32 seconds left resulted in an offensive rebound, they opted to run out the clock and end this affair.

Key Stats

• College of Faith: 6-50 FG (12.0%), 3-14 3PT (16.7%), 5-24 FT (20.8%). I've seen teams shoot poorly before, but never like this. The three point performance I can understand; that's not out of the realm of possibility. But to only make three of your 36 two point shot attempts?! Granted, Hope played stellar defense, but still! The free throw performance is just inexcusable.
• Nate Snuggerud (HOPE): 13-13 (2-2 3PT), 1-2 FT; 29 pts, 11 reb (2 off), 3 stl. If only he had made that second free throw. Even so, a perfect day from the field is impressive, and that he made it a double-double in just 17 minutes of action is icing on the cake.
• Caleb Byers (HOPE): 8-9 FG, 3-6 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 1 blk, 5 stl. For reference: Byers averaged 5.3 points per game in 26 games that season, including 11 starts. But I feel safe assuming he never had a game quite like this one, especially since he did all that damage in just 12 minutes.

Final Thoughts
I've never seen a game like this one. I never will again. That's what makes this one so special. The paid attendance was only 56. Counting players, coaches, officials, and game staff, that makes me one of roughly 100 people who saw this game. I will tell my grandchildren about this game one day, they will think I'm making it up, and I will show them the picture I took of the scoreboard at the end as proof that this actually happened and I was there.

Photo by Robert Kurtycz (Hope Athletic Department)

Hope opened that season ranked #7 in the country according to D3hoops.com. They followed this win up with a loss to North Central, who would go on to a Final Four. The Dutchmen would finish 18-9 overall, losing in the MIAA Championship Game at Calvin. College of Faith, meanwhile, has expanded to multiple locations in the United States. Their uniforms are less intramural-like, but the NCAA has taken a hard look at the school. They have their place, but on a football field or basketball court against NCAA teams in games that count... sadly, no. That means that that game I announced on the afternoon of November 16, 2012 is of the type that will never occur again. It is lost to history, but it will always live on in my memories.

2016-17 NCC Women's Basketball Preview

Even in the midst of a busy football time where the NFL is still in the thick of the regular season, the FBS is approaching its climax, and D-III begins its playoffs this weekend, one of my great loves begins anew.

It's time for another college basketball season, as I begin my tenth year of paying attention to the Division III level of hoops to some degree. It has stretched from casual following and researching for games I called when I was an undergrad at North Central, to now my being an unabashed NCC homer and ardent disciple of The System. The season officially begins today, but North Central's first game is not for another few days yet.

One feature I decided to add for this year can be found on the right sidebar on the main site (but unfortunately is not available on the mobile site, so phone readers will need to view the full web page) in the form of a standings list for the CCIW. I will try to update it following every team playing games over the course of the season. Last year I started taking screenshots of standings and throwing them in every post following conference games, but I want to have a more permanent, updatable feature on the site for this season.

So with a couple days to prepare for Year Six of the gradual destruction of my vocal cords, let's take a look at North Central's women's basketball program.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

Good morning, and happy Nick Saban Is A Coward Week!

This week means that we're almost through our entire regular season in college football. Division III just announced its playoff field on Sunday with a potential rematch for the fate of the universe looming in Round 2 before the inevitable Purple Bowl in about a month. But in the FBS level, as we saw yesterday, time is running out and chaos is starting to reign. I love it.

This week's cowardice is joined by multiple other non-conference games that are not cowardice, which is nice after a week where literally the only non-conference games were between two independents and a third independent hosting an FCS game. A primer on how this metric works can be found in my season introductory post.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

Wow. Okay, now comes the fun part.

Since Week 6, I've been building mock brackets for this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs. It's been a relatively easy ride so far, but things are about to become much more complicated given all of the losses this past week. It's meant a tradeoff of first place teams in multiple conferences and it will require a rearranging of at large teams going in.

If you're unfamiliar with how this works, it's pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs is the brainchild of Yahoo! writers Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. They created a more equitable college football playoff system (where the current system is an improvement, but not enough of one) where we have a 16 team field. 10 of the spots go automatically to the champions of each FBS conference, then the rest of the field is filled with at large bids. The 16 teams are seeded and set up in a standard bracket. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeded team, so getting a top eight seed guarantees you home field in round one, a top four seed guarantees it for two rounds, and a top two seed means you won't have to leave home until the title game in Pasadena.

So how do we decide the at large teams, and what's the seeding process? In my borrowing of their system, I work as the sole member of a selection committee, but I use multiple metrics to help build the field. The decisions are made with seven metrics in mind: Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), and computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These metrics kind of organically mesh together, with the computer rankings inserted to help offset any bias I may have while also bringing margin of victory into play.

So with all of this in mind, after much thought, here is the latest mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 11

All right. Who broke college football?

I thought it was crazy enough that Mount Union, one of the purple-clad titans of Division III who we can all but pencil in for the Stagg Bowl on a yearly basis, lost a regular season game for the first time in 113 tries. But then all of the nonsense happened at the FBS level as well, and suddenly I have a lot to sort out.

Fortunately, this is the easy part. This morning, I am running through all of the results from the past week and updating our Playoff Points numbers, which might see some stark differences from last week. If you're unfamiliar with how this metric works, you can view that in my season introduction post.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

We're into Week 10, and the gap has narrowed.

I turned into Steph Curry this past Monday from Thursday through about 6:00 on Sunday evening, winning my first nine picks before coming back down to earth. In the end I took four of the six disputed games between Adam and I, and I've climbed out of the group basement. Adam is now tied with Logan atop our standings, and the difference between first place and last place is just five games. Parity; we has it.

If you want to look at a breakdown of how we've picked games based on majority/minority and things of that nature, I have all that set up on a Google sheet. My thanks do go to Adam for coming up with this idea midway through last season, and I've tried to keep it updated all year.

This week, he and I disagree on just five games out of the 14 being played. Let's see if I can keep the momentum going.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

We interrupt any and all political bullcrap you may be reading today to bring you a little something football related, in hopes that maybe it will distract you from our impending doom.

Whatever side of the aisle you may fall on, we can pretty much all agree that football is awesome, and as we start to see the regular season wind down the games become more and more critical.

For the last several weeks, we've seen very little change in our NCSS rankings. Last week saw just a swap at the top, but other than that teams appear to have settled into their final spots... at least until the final two weeks when we get a bevy of non-conference games, including the annual Nick Saban Is A Coward Week.

If you want a refresher on how this metric works, you can check that out in my season introductory post. Let's look at this week's rankings.

2016 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

The undefeated team count remains at five after ten weeks, but it doesn't make building the Death to the BCS Playoffs bracket any less complicated.

I'm doing a week by week mock of the tournament following every week, beating out the College Football Playoff committee by several weeks, in a series of practice exercises for the real thing following the end of the regular season.

The methodology behind this is pretty simple. The Death to the BCS Playoffs are a 16 team playoff field designed by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan where all conference champions get an automatic berth to the playoffs, and the rest of the field is filled in with at large teams. While their format had a committee selecting the field, I form a committee of one, albeit a semieducated one who tries to compile a number of metrics to help make an educated decision.

Using Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjusted Playoff Points (aPP), as well as computer rankings from Jeff Sagarin (SAG), the late David Rothman (ROTH), and All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS), I will seed the field from 1-16. Home field advantage for the first three rounds goes to the higher seeds, and the championship game is played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Let's see what the latest mock road to Southern California maps out as.

2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

Another week of football is in the books. We're starting to see some playoff clinches in other divisions, as North Central clinched its first berth in the D-III playoffs in three years. We're still a long ways away in the FBS level, though.

We still have about a month's worth of football left to play, and we've definitely seen some separation at the top in terms of Playoff Points, but the middle of the pack is still tightly bunched up. We'll look at what that means for the playoffs later this afternoon.

If you are unfamiliar with how Playoff Points work, you can view a primer on those in my season introduction post. A look at last week's rankings can be found here.

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

This week we will officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, and the gap has narrowed.

It was a good week for hero picks this past week, as everyone except Grant nailed one. Adam just barely held on to the lead among our group thanks to his Aiden's hero win, but only one game separates each of the top four players. I remain in last place, but took five our our eight disputed games and sit just three back of my dad for fourth place.

I have a Google Sheet with a breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other, which you can view here. The only thing that I could maybe want to do differently in the future is do a breakdown by team, but that might be a lot of work. Something I intend to keep in mind though.

Adam is in Dallas for a few days, but was able to get me his picks before he left. This week, we disagree on six out of the 13 games being played. Let's see if I can continue the comeback.

Fly The W

I'm running on just three and a half hours of sleep this morning. But a lack of sleep has never felt so good.

It's a stark contrast from just 24 hours ago when my stomach was in knots from anticipation and extreme nervousness.

As a background, I am from suburban Chicago. My parents came here from North Dakota in the summer of 1984. That's a summer which, Cubs fans know, was a fun one on the north side of Chicago when the Cubs made a run, won the NL East, and fell just short of a World Series berth. They got hooked, spent pretty much every weekend that following summer in the bleachers at Wrigley, and fell in love with this team. My dad, who grew up a Twins fan, was able to pull off rooting for both because interleague play wasn't around yet and neither team was likely to make the World Series. He got a pair of Twins championships, but this one eluded him.

I first was "blessed and healed," to borrow a phrase from Eddie Vedder, in 1998 when my dad took me to Wrigley for the first time. I was hooked then and there, and this was helped by Sammy Sosa taking a bunch of steroids hitting a crapton of homeruns and leading the Cubs to the playoffs. I was in love with the Cubs from then on.

So of course, within a few years I got the required course in heartbreak. The 2003 NLCS was devastating, and is one of only a few times sports I wasn't directly involved in made me cry. It hardened me up a little bit for the early exits in 2007 and 2008, the latter of which kept me up until 3:30 in the morning, feeling numb, watching Family Guy and playing video games of some sort just to feel something again. This led to disappointing falls from 2009 onward, until Theo came aboard.

He was honest up front about the rebuild: it was going to take time, and it wasn't going to be pretty at first. Those first couple of years were not good, but I knew it was all part of the plan. Restock the farm system, build from within, draft high, trade for prospects, and watch them grow. 2014 ended on a fairly positive note as some of the seeds began to sprout. I expected 2015 to be a step towards contention, but last season exceeded my wildest expectations as I got to see Kris Bryant hit his first Major League homer in person, see a crazy walkoff win, and watch the Cubs shock the world with the third best record in the National League but finish third in their division. Thanks to the Wild Card Game, they got a shot to make a postseason run, and even though it ended sooner than I wanted it to, I was still optimistic about the future.

This year they came into the season with a target on their backs, but per Joe Maddon, they embraced it en route to the best record in baseball. They needed four games to handle the Giants, though not without a thrilling ninth inning comeback to eliminate Even Year Magic. They went 21 innings without a run against the Dodgers as many Cubs fans panicked (I was definitely freaked out but not in full panic mode) before flipping the switch, getting to Kershaw, and winning the pennant at home.

They faced an extremely good Indians team that took them to the brink. I'm not even going to make any "It was 3-1" jokes here, even though it would be karmic, because I respect the Indians and their fans. By all accounts of Cubs fans in Cleveland that I've heard, the city was incredibly welcoming, and even watching the game last night you could see the respect the Cubs and Indians had for each other.

None of that overrode the extreme nerves, the likes of which I don't think I've ever felt before except maybe during a Blackhawks overtime playoff game. The Cubs building a 5-1 lead helped relax me a little bit, but I've been a Cubs fan long enough to know that weird stuff happens. The Indians rallied in the eighth to tie the game, and I pulled a "surrender cobra" after Rajai Davis' game-tying home run, but with the game still tied, I had faith. I was scared after they blew a chance in the ninth that the Indians would walk it off, but Aroldis Chapman held firm. Then the rain came.

I debated about going to shower, but I didn't know how long the delay would last. Thankfully it wasn't long and the Cubs had the right part of the order coming up in the 10th. I would have been yelling with joy were Kristen not asleep, having gone to bed in about the fourth inning. I spent the entire bottom of the tenth on my feet, texting my dad, wishing I was there with him. And then, magic.

History. #FlyTheW pic.twitter.com/S8vVDYA87T

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) November 3, 2016

I'm not going to lie, I cried a little bit. Kristen even heard it from upstairs. Prior to last night, I had seen all of my teams win multiple titles. I don't remember the first three peat, but I have memories of Michael Jordan leading the Bulls to their second three peat. I was on the wagon for Green Bay's Super Bowl XXXI victory, and reveled in their win 14 years later. I got on the bandwagon in time for the Blackhawks' 2010 Stanley Cup, though the Cups in 2013 and 2015 were much sweeter for me. That's 11 championships, by the way, and they all pale in comparison to last night.

Maybe it's recency bias, but I think it's more of the emotional investment. Last night is why we love sports. Last night is why I am a Cubs fan. Losing sucks, and losing tough games when your team hasn't won in a long time hurts. But then you have nights like last night, and it makes it all worth it.

2016 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Double digits! We've made it!

It's hard to believe we're this far into the season already, but time marches on and we're getting into the more crucial parts of the season. Playoff teams are looking to solidify their resumes, bubble teams are looking for that one break to sneak in, and conference contenders are trying to fight for a spot in their conference title game to steal an automatic bid.

Today though, the focus is on our non-conference games. I think last week might have been the first time all season that there were no changes to the standings. Whether that will remain the case this week, we're about to find out.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, check out my season introduction post. Let's look at the non-conference games for the week.