Game Notes: University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire @ North Central College(11/29/14)

Final Score

NCC 101, UWEC 89

Game Summary

Things started fairly well for the Cardinals (4-0), who were able to combine the inside and outside game to take an early 7-4 lead. Then the Blugolds (3-3) went on a long run to go up 16-7. North Central worked its way back from there, often closing the gap to two or even one before the Blugolds would reestablish control, taking a 42-38 lead into the break. The Blugolds came out very strong in the second half and within about five minutes were padding the lead while the Cardinals panicked, allowing 17 unanswered points to go up 64-45. A timeout by Eau Claire stopped the bleeding and allowed North Central to gather itself for a comeback and slowly ate into the deficit before taking an 85-84 lead with about five minutes to go. Timely threes and good free throw shooting sealed the deal. 

Key Stats

• NCC Free Throws: 19-24 (79.2%). What has been a weakness in years past has become a strength, at least through four games. This helped keep them in the game when things were dire and helped to put the game away when the comeback was complete.
• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 13-20 FG (0-1 3PT), 8-10 FT; 34 pts, 3 reb (1 off). After slacking off on Wednesday (kidding, but 10 points is her season low), she had a monster performance today. She was a monster in the low post, terrorizing the Blugolds defense and keeping things even until the Blugold run, then keying the comeback. She's now averaging 24.5 points through four games this year.
• Courtney Lewis (UWEC): 7-11 FG, 3-3 FT; 17 pts, 11 reb (1 off),10 ast, 1 stl. I didn't realize until I looked at the box score that Lewis had a triple-double, the second opponent to pick one up against the Cardinals. She was a threat primarily in the first half, though she did also score some during the 17-0 run.

NCC System Watch

• UWEC Turnovers: 24. Eau Claire only had nine at halftime (as did NCC), but they started to come apart during NCC's comeback. The Cardinals finished the day with 12 steals, led by Bobbi Johns' four. 
• NCC 3PT: 10-42 (23.8%). The attempts are way down from the Tip Off Tournament, but the percentages still need to go up a bit. Maryssa Cladis had the best numbers of anyone (3-4). Even so, the threes they did hit were well timed ones. 
• NCC Charges Drawn: 2. I didn't catch who it was, but the Cardinals did draw one in the first half. They also picked one up during the second half comeback, but I wasn't in position to see who drew that one either. Hopefully Coach Roof has been keeping track. 

Final Thoughts

After the double overtime game last weekend, this was a much less stressful encounter, despite the huge deficit. It was much less taxing on my voice, even though as the comeback was taking place I was getting excited. These girls deserve credit for not giving up today. They did the hard work. I just did all I could to turn the tide.

The Cardinals hit the road for most of the rest of December, including the next two in California. They'll be back home on the 19th.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 13

Are we really already to Thanksgiving? Wow.

All the bye weeks are concluded at this point, so we're picking 16 games each of the next five weeks. We may need it; we've been struggling.

Last week had some weather changes happen, as the Bills-Jets game in Buffalo had to be moved to Detroit. I made a change to my original pick there as the line dropped a couple points, and I opted to go with the Jets... only to have that come back to bite me. It also evened out the results between Adam and I for the week. Instead of the seven disagreements on games, we jumped up to eight, and split them evenly. It was sub-.500 weeks for both of us again. I remain above .500 overall, but I need to turn the ship around. So does Adam; he remains 13 games back with five weeks to go.

I think somewhere along the line, I miscounted loss totals, while keeping the win totals intact. Those are correct, and I've added two losses to both my and Adam's records. This still factors in the three games Adam called correctly on COAS but either had the wrong team or forgot to pick on ESPN. While I'm not sure where the missed count started, it's now fixed; there are 176 games on our records with 80 to go (16 over each of the five weeks). We're good now.

So as my Thanksgiving gift to you all, here are our picks against the spread for Week 13. This week, Adam and I disagree on seven of the 16 games.

Game Notes: Aurora University @ North Central College (11/25/14)

Final Score
NCC 67, Aurora 63

Game Summary
This was a chippy game from the outset, as both defenses stepped up from the tip. The Spartans (2-2) had control for the first four minutes until the Cardinals (3-0) started to heat up. Aurora maintained its lead for a while then started swapping leads a couple times. Foul trouble started to catch up to them though and Cardinal threes started to fall. NCC built its lead until they were up 44-25 at the break. Momentum completely turned around in the second half; while the Cardinals were able to maintain their 19 point lead for a while, the Spartans went on a 15-0 run to narrow the gap to four with about two minutes left.

Key Stats

• Jayme Moten (NCC): 7-11 FG (5-8 3PT), 1-1 FT; 20 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1 stl. Jamie caught fire in the first half, going 4-6 from beyond the arc and 5-7 overall. His two-pointer was an absolutely gorgeous layup where he subtly slowed down to draw contact and had the strength to bank it home. It was incredible.
• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 5-13 FG (0-2 3PT), 1-2 FT; 11 pts, 12 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 2 stl. Rosenberg managed one point on a free throw in the first half before trying to take over in the second half. In the early stages, he did before the collapse started happening.
• Brandon Smith (AUR): 11-19 FG (5-9 3PT), 3-4 FT; 30 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 1 ast. Smith pretty much singlehandedly keyed the Aurora comeback in the second half. I had a couple fans behind me asking what he finished with on my way out, that's how good he was. He almost keyed a comeback win, but the Cardinals held on.

Final Thoughts
This was a very chippy game. I know I said that in the summary, but it needs mentioning twice. There was a lot of physical play, and some ticky tack stuff was called. The Cardinals also got away with a couple flops in the first half. It got to the point that Aurora coach James Lancaster pulled a Grey Giovanine and took off his jacket angrily during a time out. The tables turned a bit in the second. Aurora got away with a foul that shouldn't have been called, but it evened thigs out a bit.

NCC now hits the road for eight straight to close out the non-conference slate. The women have a couple more home games before CCIW play yet, starting on Saturday.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 14

I missed one MAC game last night. It won't impact the numbers I'm running today, but I need to make sure I get this taken care of.

For a majoring of the FBS conferences, this is the final week of the regular season. Next week has most of the conference championship games, plus final games for the other conferences. This week will probably be the final week that I do anything with NCSS, though I'll probably take a token look next week.

This week's action is bound to be better than last week's, if for no other reason than the SEC are done being cowards. I'm pretty sure we're done with this playing cupcake nonsense, at least until August.

Let's take a look at the non-conference matchups this weekend.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 13 Edition

My weekend has officially begun! As my gift to you: bracket time.

Some chaos ensued this weekend, though there wasn't a lot in the college ranks. Even so, I need to update the numbers and check to see who would make the playoffs.

Differing from the College Football Playoff, whose rankings have been somewhat consistent with those on here, the Death to the BCS Playoffs is a 16-team playoff made up of the ten conference champions and filled out with six at-large teams. So how do we decide these teams? With metrics.

To loosely figure out how well teams are scheduling games out of conference, I use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) as one metric. The higher the number, the "tougher" the schedule was (basically, more road games and/or "Power" conference opponents are good). The more useful self-designed metric I use are First and Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2), which shows how good each team was, and how good the teams they beat are. Then, because I don't want to monopolize the rankings myself, I use a pair of margin-of-victory-included computer rankings developed by the late David Rothman (ROTH) and Jeff Sagarin (SAG).

If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here. Let's update the numbers.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 13

Happy Tuesday! I hope you all had a good weekend. I'm back to take a look at college football because my voice needs a break. Double overtime games are brutal to announce, but when your team wins? All is good.

Anyway, now we come back to the gridiron. At this point, a lot of the division races are wrapped up, though there are some major games still left to be played this coming weekend. That comes tomorrow when I look at the NCSS rankings.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee had some interesting decisions last week, and to some degree we agreed, but not entirely. That may change with the Death to the BCS Playoff seedings that will come out later today just ahead of the new committee rankings. So with this week's games shifting some of the NCSS numbers around a bit, will Playoff Points change?

If you are unfamiliar with how this metric works, you can view a summary on Playoff Points here. Let's look at the data.

Game Notes: Bluffton University @ North Central College (11/22/14)

Final Score
NCC 77, Bluffton 61

Game Summary
The Cardinals (2-0) struggled a bit at the outset from the Beavers' (1-3) inside game, but NCC was able to respond and control most of the half, leading 33-26 at the break. NCC came out guns blazing in the second half and opened up a double digit lead. Bluffton never really threatened and NCC walked away victorious.

Key Stats

• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 7-18 (0-2 3PT), 9-12 FT; 23 pts, 6 reb (1 off), 5 ast. It's good to have him back this year. After leading the team in scoring on Friday, Rosenberg did so again on Saturday. He didn't shoot well from the floor, but he took advantage of his chances at the line, something he'll need to do once we hit CCIW play.
• Kevin Honn (NCC): 5-7 FG (4-5 3PT), 4-5 FT; 18 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl. The Downers Grove native was a key player when I previewed the season, and he lived up to expectations last night. He shot pretty well from three last year and is off to a good start this year, as well as being an inside presence for rebounds. They'll need him if Rosenberg or Jack Burchett get into foul trouble. 
• Thayne Recker (BLF): 9-10 FG, 6-8 FT; 24 pts, 5 reb (3 off). I think Bluffton's season lives and dies with this guy. He did a ton of damage against Whitewater on Friday, and was a problem early for the Cardinals too. Very dominant post player.

Early Game Notes
Wisconsin-Whitewater 95, Trinity International 72. Whitewater let the threes fly early and took a strong early lead, but the Trojans stayed with it for most of the first half. It wasn't until the last couple minutes of halftime that the Warhawks began to pull away, leading 47-32 at the break. The second half really wasn't close, and the Warhawks were able to call off the dogs very late in the contest.

Tournament Awards

All-Tournament Team
Justin Peeples (TIU)

Quardell Young (UWW)

Drew Bryson (UWW)

Thayne Recker (BLF)

Jack Burchett (NCC)

Tournament MVP
Charles Rosenberg (NCC)

Final Thoughts
The Cardinals looked much better tonight compared to yesterday. Even so, Bluffton kept it fairly close for much of the early part of the game. NCC was able to put it away late and looked good doing so. They'll be back on Tuesday to take on rival Aurora University at 7:00.

Game Notes: Millsaps College @ North Central College (11/22/14)

Final Score
NCC 117 Millsaps 115 (2OT)


Game Summary
The Majors (1-2) came out running and got out to an early lead. The Cardinals (2-0) were able to keep within shouting distance for most of the first half, closing it to a one possession game multiple times, but couldn't get over the hump, trailing 52-44 at the break. NCC came out firing, but wasn't able to tie until at 78 all with about five minutes left, then again at 88 with about 90 seconds to go. Maryssa Cladis hit a layup with 16 ticks left, and the Cardinals just missed a game winning three at the buzzer. The teams were balanced throughout overtime, neither team building a commanding lead. NCC had a chance to win but couldn't get a bucket, forcing double overtime. It was tight in double overtime too, but NCC hit enough free throw and overcame enough bad calls to escape with a win.

Key Stats

• Tess Godhardt (NCC): 12-19 FG (1-4 3PT), 15-20 FT; 40 pts, 14 reb (10 off) 3 stl. Tess owned the offensive paint tonight and hit the key free throws to really put the game away. Her 40 points are a school record for a single game.
• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 1-7 FG (all 3PT), 1-2 FT; 4 pts, 13 reb, 1 ast, 2 stl, 8 blk. Jamie didn't have a great offensive game, but was key to the comeback win on the defensive end. She played the end of regulation and most of the extra time before fouling out late in the second one. Fun note: coming into tonight, the NCC record for blocks in a game is eight... the team record. Cuny got there by herself.
• Samantha Perez (MIL): 5-13 FG, 4-6 FT; 14 pts, 10 reb, 14 ast. Perez was one of the best players all tournament long, and picking up a triple double is a big deal (it doesn't happen often).

North Central System Watch

• Millsaps Turnovers: 31. This seemed lower, but Bluffton did throw it away a ton. The Cardinals picked up a pair of inbounding five second calls late to help this figure. NCC did manage 13 steals, led by Hodhardt's three. 
• NCC 3PT: 13-72 (18.1%). Ick. Most of the looks so far this year have been open, but they aren't falling. Some of them are rushed as well, which doesn't help. This number will go up, I'm sure, but that's a lot of shots. 72 is an NCAA record.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Therese Pettersson drew another, giving her three in two games. Millsaps drew I don't know how many in response. It was ridiculous.

Early Game Notes
St. Mary's 79, Trinity International 36. The Belles bounced back well after last night's loss. Ariana Paul had another double-double (12 points and 11 rebounds) while Gabby Diamond got the start and led her team with 13 points. Arielle Miree led the Trojans with 16 points, including 9-14 from the stripe.

Tournament Awards
All-Tournament Team
Arielle Miree (TIU)

Ariana Paul (SMC)

Miah Brooks (MIL)

Samantha Perez (MIL)

Jamie Cuny (NCC)

Tournament MVP
Tess Godhardt (NCC)

Final Thoughts
First thought: the officiating was not good. Like, really bad. There were a ton of missed calls , but they were missed both ways. NCC was able to step up late to force overtime. That ending... Man. It was a great win, and it was awesome to see the celebration that ensued. NCC comes back home next Saturday to face Wisconsin-Eau Claire.

Game Notes: Trinity International University @ North CentralCollege (11/21/14)

Final Score
NCC 81, TIU 64

Game Summary
The Cardinals (1-0) came out strong and slowly built a lead, but the Trojans (1-5) kept it fairly close throughout the first half despite a lot of foul trouble. The lead ballooned bit by bit, growing to as much as 15 before NCC went into the locker room up 42-28, though Jack Burchett left shortly before the buzzer after getting hit in the head. Burchett returned for the second half, which was good, as he helped stem the Trojans coming out of the gate strong. They narrowed the gap to single digits for much of the half. The Cardinals kept ahead thanks to a strong inside game and clutch free throw shooting overall late.

Key Stats

• Jack Burchett (NCC): 9-11 FG, 6-12 FT; 24 pts, 14 reb (5 off), 3 ast, 1 stl. Big Jack was a force of nature. He was in double figures by halftime with nine rebounds, so he didn't get a ton in the second half, but he was the key offensive piece that stopped the bleeding.
• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 11-14 FG (1-2 3PT), 2-7 FT; 25 pts, 5 reb (1 off), 2 stl, 3 blk. It's good to have Charlie back, though he goes by Charles now. The man was a destructive force in the paint to lead all scorers, though his free throws leave much to be desired. Then again, he hit a three late to drive Merner bonkers, so there's that.
• Justin Peeples (TIU): 4-12 FG (0-5 3PT), 8-12 FT; 16 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 5 ast, 1 stl. Peeples was probably the best guy for the Trojans tonight. He was a major player in keeping them close throughout the second half. He just couldn't knock down the deep ball.

Early Game Notes
Wisconsin-Whitewater 67, Bluffton 46. From what I heard, this was a closer game than the score suggested. Thayne Recker did most of the damage for Bluffton with 25 points and 11 rebounds, but the next leading scorer had six points. The Warhawks had a balanced attack led by Quardell Young (16 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals) and Drew Bryson (11 points).

Final Thoughts
This seemed like a good tuneup for the Cardinals, who were the last CCIW team to start the season. They clearly needed it with the struggles they had for much of the game. Good free throw shooting from freshman Joe Kennell put it away. NCC is back at it tomorrow against Bluffton at 7:30.

Game Notes: St. Mary's College @ North Central College (11/21/14)

Final Score
NCC 100, St. Mary's 84

Game Summary
It was a fairly slow start for the Cardinals (1-0), who missed their first several threes to start the game and the Belles (0-3) took advantage to build an early 9-2 lead. The threes started to drop from there and the press started to force turnovers. A 19-4 run got the Cardinals well in front and helped them stake a 44-33 halftime lead. North Central came out stronger in the second half and pushed the lead to about 20 halfway through. The Belles would narrow the gap to as closets 13 with about five minutes to go, but the Cardinals were able to step up late to put it away.

Key Stats

• Miranda Grizzafi (NCC): 5-11 FG (all 3PT), 1-1 FT; 16 pts, 4 reb (3 off), 1 ast, 1 blk. Miranda got the first triple of the year to kick things off, and was shooting well the rest of the night. She also crashed the offensive glass, giving the Cardinals extra chances.
• Jamie Cuny (NCC): 5-15 FG (3-11 3PT), 1-2 FT; 14 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 1 ast, 2 stl, 4 blk. The U of I-Springfield transfer and Naperville native had a good first game, launching plenty of shots from outside, but she also provided good interior defense and reach on the press. She hit a layup with 10 seconds left to hit the century mark. 
• Ariana Paul (SMC): 9-13 FG, 2-4 FT; 20 pts, 20 reb (4 off), 2 ast, 2 STL, 1 blk. As is the case with NCC's system, opposing forwards typically score a lot, but a 20-20 game doesn't happen that often. She did have five turnovers however, which didn't help.

North Central System Watch

• SMC Turnovers: 42. The Belles turned it over 28 times in the first half, obviously struggling with the pressure. Every player who saw time save one had at least one giveaway. NCC did force one ten second call, and 21 of the turnovers came on NCC steals; Bobbi Johns led the team with four, while Mayson Whipple had three.
• NCC 3PT: 16-67 (23.9%). The NCAA record for attempts is 68, so they fell just short, but did set a program record. After missing a bunch to start, the Cardinals finished 7-35 at the break. The second half was better (9-32), but still not a great start. Most of the shots were open looks, so I imagine those will fall as the season goes on.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 4. This is a new feature I'm adding this year. I told Coach Roof before the season started that this should be an official stat. I've been a proponent of this since my days at Aurora Christian, where charges were kept as an official stat at least until 2010 (I'm not sure with the new regime if it still is). I didn't catch who, but they drew a pair in the first half. Therese Pettersson drew a pair early in the second half before fouling out.

Early Game Notes
Millsaps 55, Trinity International 31. Trinity did hold some early leads, but the Majors were in control most of the contest. Kala Freeman led the way with 16 points and six rebounds, while Sam Perez had a great floor game (9 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals). Amari Parham led the Trojans with 11 points, but has seven of TIU's 27 turnovers.

Final Thoughts
Fun officiating notes tonight: NCC was assessed an early technical. They had a player wearing a wrong jersey in the book, which is a two-shot tech. But apparently, you can only get assessed one per game. We learned this when we caught a second one in the second half. Also, apparently it's now against the rules for a player to step out of bounds and touch the ball right away once you're back in bounds.

Overall, not the best start, but a win is a win. NCC will plays Millsaps for the title tomorrow night at 5:00.

Chicago Marriott Naperville Tipoff Tournament Preview

I'm officially on my weekend from my day job, though in the grand scheme of things, it's not much of a "weekend", as I'm working. Two days. Eight games. A total of probably 10 hours in a gym exercising my vocal cords. And I love every second of it.

North Central has hosted a basketball tournament the weekend before Thanksgiving every year since I can remember (so, 2007 when I first became aware, though the NCC Athletics website traces the tournament's history back to at least 2000). It gets both the men's and women's teams involved early enough, though I wish more people were aware of how entertaining the NCC women's team is. But there's a title drought for both teams, as the women haven't won since a 2008 double overtime thriller against St. Ambrose, and the men missed out on a chance to threepeat last year.

The women's tournament changed formats this year. Back in the day, the first day of games would determine who played when on the second day, where the consolation games took place in the early part of the day, followed by the title games. For a couple years, the men's tournament has had predetermined matchups where NCC gets the 7:30 game both nights. The women are switching to a similar format this year, so they will play at 5:00 on both days. The past couple years, this format has worked to deliver de facto championship games in the later time slots, but of course, upsets can happen.

So before the tournament tips off tomorrow at noon, here's a look at the non-NCC squads making the trip to Naperville.

Women's Tournament

Millsaps College (Jackson, MS)
2013-14: 17-9 (10-4 SAA), Lost SAA Semifinal
Nov. 21: vs Trinity International; Nov. 22: vs NCC
The Majors come into the tournament never having made the trek up to Naperville, much less ever having faced the Cardinals in basketball before. Millsaps features three seniors and a defense that allowed only 56.5 points per game last season. The key people to watch out for are senior point guard Samantha Perez (12.1 PPG on 44% shooting, plus 5.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game) and senior sniper Velvet Johnson (led the 2013-14 Majors with 15.4 PPG on 40.5% shooting, including 38.8% from deep), though sophomore Kala-Jewel Freeman provides an excellent presence down low (47.5% shooting to reach 10.5 PPG, plus a steal and over half a block per game). as does junior Miah Brooks (only 8.2 PPG, but shot 59.3% from the floor and adds an interior defensive presence as well). There's a lot of youth on this team, but only a couple freshmen. They've been around the block a few times, and should pose a challenge on Saturday.

Trinity International University (Deerfield, IL)
2013-14: 3-24 (0-18 CCAC)
Nov. 21: vs Millsaps; Nov. 22 vs St. Mary's
This trip is a first for the Trinity women, who play at the NAIA level. There's some confusion with their 13-14 schedule, as I count 4 wins, but whatever; that's last year. The Trojans lost their top three scorers from 2013-14, which means sophomore JaToya Woods will have to step up her game after averaging nine points a game last year but only shooting 30% from the floor. This team shot poorly from deep (just shy of 26%) in 2013-14, and will need to rely on players like sophomore point guard Arielle Miree (4.7 PPG, 32% from deep) to pick up the slack. The Trojans will also need to rely on some inexperienced players in the post; junior Asja Triplett did not play in 2013-14, though they picked up a 5'11" guard from my alma mater in Sara Childers, and Aurora Christian's girls team has taken a turn of respectability.


St. Mary's College (Notre Dame, IN)
2013-14: 7-18 (5-11 MIAA), Missed MIAA Tournament
Nov. 21: vs NCC; Nov. 22 vs Trinity International
The Cardinals made the trip to Indiana last year to take on the Saints and won a 90-89 thriller. That narrowed the all-time series gap to 3-2 in favor of the Saints, and Friday night might see that get tied. The Saints will have to move on without last year's leading scorer Shanlynn Bias (14.7 PPG), so most of their 2014-15 offense will probably rely on a pair of 5'10" forwards who were right behind Bias last year. Senior Ariana Paul is a double-double threat (13.9-8.1, 42% shooting) and junior Krista Knapke is right up there with her (11.0-7.4, 44% shooting). Both of them struggle with free throws, however (Paul shot 65.6%, Knapke 51.8%), so the Cardinals will have some leeway here. Junior Eleni Shea will also have to step up down low after averaging about nine points a game last year. I'm not sure what to expect in terms of guard play; the Saints attempted a total of 80 threes all season last year, hitting 23. I'll be interested to see how they handle North Central's press.

Men's Tournament

Bluffton University (Bluffton, OH)
2013-14: 10-15 (6-12 HCAC); Missed HCAC Tournament
Nov. 21: vs Wisconsin-Whitewater; Nov. 22: vs NCC
The Beavers are 2-2 all time against NCC, and that tie will be broken on Saturday. Two of Bluffton's four leading scorers are gone, but there are still some key pieces that return for the 2014-15 campaign. Thayne Recker brings the interior attack (13.6 PPG on 63% shooting, plus 6.8 RPG) while Billy Taflinger strikes from the perimeter (10.5 PPG on 42% shooting, but went 12-51 from deep last year. Senior Ryan Ebbeskotte is the floor general who averaged 8.1 points and 4.4 assists per game last year while shooting just shy of 35% from three, and senior Brock Homier is a deadlier deep weapon (37.7% from outside) who will get more time this year.

University of Wisconsin-Whitewater Warhawks (Whitewater, WI)
2013-14: 29-4 (13-3 WIAC); Won NCAA D-III National Championship
Nov. 21 vs Bluffton; Nov. 22 vs Trinity International
Ah, my old nemesis. Whitewater completed the rare trifecta last year, winning a national title in all three major men's sports. They've also historically had the Cardinals' number; they are 8-1 all time against NCC. However, the most recent meeting went to the Cardinals when they bounced the then-defending champs from the NCAA Tournament. At the time I started writing this, the schedule was set so Whitewater would play NCC on Saturday. For whatever reason, that changed, and the Warhawks now play TIU on Saturday. Whitewater's roster for this season isn't available yet, but the Warhawks lost four seniors to graduation. One piece they didn't lose was leading scorer KJ Evans (17.3 PPG on 51.9% shooting, including 36.6% from outside). Quardell Young is another major piece that returns (10.7 PPG on 54.3% shooting, including 43.2% from outside). Most of the starting frontcourt left, so that leaves guys like Steve Egan (5.4 PPG on 52.6% shooting in about 12.6 minutes a game) to pick up the slack, plus whatever youth they brought in this year.

Trinity International University
2013-14: 5-25 (3-16 CCAC)
Nov. 21: vs NCC; Nov. 22: vs Wisconsin-Whitewater
The Trojans are playing in the Tip Off Tournament for the second straight year after taking third place in the 2013 edition (they lost badly to DePauw before righting the ship against Valor Christian). They've never faced the Cardinals before, but get to in NCC's season opener. An amazing five of the top six scorers from last year's team return. Senior center Nate Ball led the way in 2013-14 (12.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, shot 49% from the floor; in the 2013 tournament, scored 14 of his 16 points and pulled down 11 of his 13 rebounds in the win over Valor Christian), while German sophomore Thomas Amrine was the team's main sniper (11.9 PPG, shot 42.7% from three last year; scored 19 against Valor after getting shut out by DePauw in the 2013 tournament). Justin Peeples (10.0 PPG, 2.7 APG; two points and three assists total in the 2013 tournament, though he only played eight minutes in the Valor win) and Sam Salem (9.3 PPG, 3.2 APG; had three rebounds and one assist in the DePauw loss before bouncing back with 12 points and eight assists in the win over Valor) provide a good balance of scoring and distribution. They have a very tough task ahead of them this year in facing a pair of really good D-III programs.

I'll have writeups for all of the NCC games, plus bonus material on the early games each day. With Saturday's posts, I'll also list the All-Tournament Teams and Tournament MVPs as we really get basketball season kicked off in a big way.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 12

We're onto another week of the NFL, and nearing the end of the byes. For Adam and I, we're hoping it will bring with it better weeks.

We've struggled the last couple times out, though we actually tied last week. Even so, it makes back to back weeks of sub-.500 records against the spread. We're hoping to turn that around this time, gimmicks or no.

In a fun twist that only happens every so often, my birthday happens to fall on this NFL Sunday! I get to stay home and watch football! And my wife is totally on board with it! This is awesome!

This week the final two NFL teams take their bye, giving us 15 games to make picks on. Adam and I disagree on seven of them. He didn't have an opportunity to write any commentary this week, but he did send me his official picks last night. Let's get to it!

2014-15 NCC Basketball Preview

I've been looking forward to this for months now. No, really.

That schedule has since changed around a little bit, so Friday begins another campaign at my old stomping grounds. This year, I have a new task: I will be the public address announcer for both the men's and women's basketball teams at North Central. That means more nights at Merner, but it's something I love to do, and I have the support behind me to do it.

Today, I'm going to look at both teams' expectations for the coming year, and take a look at whose names I will be calling a lot over the next few months, and how I think they will fare as they prepare for the gauntlet that is CCIW basketball.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 13

With me running a day late on college football stuff this week, I'm behind by a couple games this week. Last night, there were a pair of MAC games, which fortunately doesn't impact this metric.

There will be a fair amount of non-conference games in this week as teams wind down their regular seasons. The next couple weeks will see some major non-conference games to finish out slates, as well as defining games to determine division or conference championships. Unfortunately, for some teams, this is also an opportunity to be complete and utter cowards of the highest caliber. You probably know who I'm referring to.

If you want to refer back to last week's numbers, you can view them here. Let's see how this week looks.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 12 Edition

We're about two or three hours ahead of the committee, even with a day delay.

The Committee and I diverged a little bit with our rankings last week, as they overcame any signs of SEC bias and gave TCU the fourth spot. I have no love for the SEC, but based on every metric, save Non Conference Schedule Strength (because the SEC are a bunch of pansies who think I'm too stupid to argue with their "Our schedule is so tough, we need the late FCS games!" argument), the SEC is the best conference. Looking at our Playoff Points metric this week proved it.

We'll use those, plus some other metrics to fill out the 16-team field. Each of the ten FBS conferences will have its champion automatically in, while the rest of the field is filled by at large teams. To figure out who's in, we use Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to loosely determine whose schedules have been tougher. To a greater degree, I use the aforementioned Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2) metrics to see who each team has beaten and figure out how good they really are. To keep the field from being dominated too much by any bias I may have, I also use computer rankings derived from formulas created by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH).

Let's see how the playoffs would shake out if the season ended today.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 12

After a day delay from going to a fight and seeing a hockey game break out, I'm back to look at college football.

I'm also a little disappointed today. Division III announced its playoff field on Sunday, and unfortunately, North Central didn't make the field. At 8-2, they were kind of a long shot, so I can understand them not making it. Instead, I get to watch Wheaton represent the CCIW by beating the stuffing out of Benedictine, then root like hell against them because they stole the Bell. (Rightfully won, but whatever).

In the FBS ranks, a lot of chaos ensued and we're down to only two undefeated teams. That will cause some changes in the Death to the BCS Playoffs, which saw some difference with the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. Most of the damage stayed within conference boundaries, though there were some significant games out of conference as well. Last week's numbers will see some changes, but will the rankings be any different?

You can refer back to how Playoff Points work here. Let's run the numbers.

Game Notes: Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks (11/16/14)

Final Score

Blackhawks 6, Stars 2

Game Summary

Patrick Kane doing Patrick Kane things.

In the final game at the Madhouse before going on their annual Circus Trip, the Blackhawks (10-7-1) started fairly well with some good pressure and some pretty passing got them on the board first. Dallas (6-8-4) answered back a couple minutes later to tie it with some consistent presence in the Hawks' end, and added another shortly after. The Hawks woke up from there, helped by Andrew Shaw beating the crap out of Antoine Roussel. A couple minutes later, the power play got going and the Hawks tied it up. The second period was pretty uneventful, and the Hawks struggled a bit, but Crawford made a great glove save and a Star just missed an open net to keep the game tied at two after two. In the third, the Hawks came out firing again, taking the lead about five minutes in and just pouring it on from there.

Three Stars

3. Brad Richards (CHI): 2 A, 5 SOG, +3. Richards was honored before the game tonight, the 1000th of his career. He made it one to remember with his wife, baby, and parents in attendance. He fed Kane for the go-ahead goal early in the third, and added another helper on Versteeg's goal that made it 5-2 Hawks. 

2. Duncan Keith (CHI): 1 G, 1 A, 4 SOG, +1. Keith played pretty well on both ends of the ice, making some good defensive plays to help Crawford out. He also made a great cut to the net and put home a beautiful pass from Patrick Kane.

1. Patrick Kane (CHI): 1 G, 2 A, 3 SOG, +3. Kaner had himself a good night. He had that gorgeous pass to Keith on a break to the net to open the scoring, then set up the blast from the point that Seabrook hammered home to tie it. Kane went on to score the game-winner, shooting from a tough angle up over Kari Lehtonen.

Final Thoughts

I'd say Kristen and I picked a good game to go to. We went with her cousin Laura and her boyfriend Steve, not realizing it was Richards' 1000th game until we got there, and it's probably the best game Kristen and I have been to. Patrick Kane is Kristen's favorite player, so to see him have a great game was a plus. Toews scored too, which was nice, and I don't remember if we've been to a game where both have scored. 

The anthem was great, as always. To me though too, there's something magical about 21,000-plus people singing the chorus to Chelsea Dagger in unison, especially that many times. All in all, a good way to send the team off leading up to that long road trip.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 11

We're up and at it again!

After consistently good weeks, I finally stumbled in Week 10 action. Yet somehow, I still ended up with a better record than Adam. It was another close split in disputed games, with me ending up taking four of the seven and extending my lead to 13 games with seven weeks to go. Obviously, that's not safe, since Adam could theoretically take a couple games off the top here and there and steal the season win in Week 17. Can he get the comeback started this week? Before we find out, Adam tells me he has a new strategy for the week:

"This is opposite week.  I am going to state my pick, explain my pick, but actually go the opposite way.  If I had done that all season, I would be killing it right now.  For example, Thursday night, I like Miami to cover.  I will explain why, but I will actually pick the Bills on ESPN."

To be fair, he did do an entire series of picks based solely on cheerleaders and went 8-5 doing so. Can't hurt to try something else.

We only have four byes this week, so there are 14 games to choose from. Adam and I disagree on a whopping ten of them. I'm curious to see how his strategy this week works. If it does, he could narrow that 13 game gap quite a bit.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

It's another early start to the week this week in the college ranks.

MACtion continues its full-fledged domination of the weeknights, with four games over the next two days, and other conferences get in on the action as well as we begin Week 12 of the college season.

For the most part, we're almost out of non-conference games, but there are always a few every week because of independents and conferences with an odd number of members. Well, that, plus the eventual ACC-SEC matchups that attempt to offset the obscene SEC midseason dessert binge. Last week, we had five games out of conference, including a pair of FCS matchups (one guess as to which conference was responsible).

So what about this week? Let's take a look.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Edition

Wow, that was a tough one to build.

Eleven weeks of football are in the books, and I'm back with a new bracket with updated information. Obviously, this is just a mock bracket, but it's a fun exercise to see how the season is progressing.

The Selection Committee did a good job last week with their second batch of findings, with the top four teams matching, and eleven of the sixteen Death to the BCS Playoff teams were in the rankings. The five missing? The "champions" of the other conferences. Because I'm a champion for college football equality, I set the playoffs up such that every team has a chance to compete for the national title. Win your conference? Congratulations, you're in. Don't win it? You need a good enough resume to earn an at large spot.

So how do I decide the field and how they're seeded? I use a variety of metrics. To a small degree, I check everyone's non-conference slate using Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which isn't perfect, but rewards road non-conference games and scheduling Power Conference opponents, while penalizing scheduling cupcakes. To a greater degree, I use First Degree (PP1) and Second Degree (PP2) Playoff Points to see how successful each team has been over the course of the season. In an effort to keep from monopolizing the process with my own thoughts, I also use computer rankings developed by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH) to balance it out, factoring in margin of victory... which is kind of important, and something the BCS refused to consider out of a misguided view of sportsmanship.

So with all this in mind... here's how the new playoff field would look if the season ended today.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 11

It's November 10th. Do you know where your team lies?

With another week in the books, more chaos has unfolded and changed the playoff picture. But to what degree did it change? That's what I'm here to find out after putting together the results from the past week.

The Week 11 College Football Playoff Selection Committee wound up agreeing with my Top Four, though the order was switched around a little bit. With some losses, changes are going to be made on a pretty large scale.

Before we get to any looks at the bracket, we need to run the numbers. Most of Week 11's action stayed within conference boundaries, save for a handful of games. Last week saw the first team cross 40 First Degree Playoff Points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more teams cross that threshold today. We may also see another team cross over the 20 mark on Second Degree Playoff Points. We'll have to see.

In case you need a refresher, or if you're new to the process of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, you can view a summary of how Playoff Points work here. The short of it is, if you're familiar with how the IHSA sets up its field, this system is similar.

Let's run the numbers.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 10

We're back at it again following a very successful week!

Adam tried a very different strategy last week with the bye and the fact that he'd been struggling. It actually worked very well for him. I think for the first time ever in Pick 'Em history, we swept our unanimous picks, and even the several we disagreed on turned out to be pretty balanced. My lead grew, but Adam made me work for it; I ended up getting five of the eight right en route to my second straight week of double-digit wins.

In a weird twist if you look at the standings, Adam is actually closer than listed. He forgot to get his picks in on ESPN, but the post was in on time, so I gave him credit for picking the Saints over the Panthers for the Thursday Night game. This makes three points more than ESPN claims he has. I give him the benefit of the doubt if he goofs on here; it's the least I can do.

This week, we see the final London game of 2014 and a renewed rivalry, if we can even call it that at this point (I still will, probably forever). With six teams on their bye, we again have 13 games to choose from. Adam and I disagree on seven of them. Can he close the gap?

Let's get to it!

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

MACtion is on its way!

November is one of the more underrated times of year when it comes to football because of the fact that there are games just about every day. I couldn't remember at what point during the season it really took off, but we're here today. After only two MAC games last week, there are a ton on weeknights. I told my wife about it and I don't think she was too happy about it, but we have other stuff going on, so I probably won't be watching much.

Anyway, this spreads out the sheer number of meaningful games around the week, but again, most of the games at this point are in conference. Last week, I think I counted four non-conference games. This will probably be the case until certain SEC teams do their unforgivable late-season cupcake binges that I keep ranting about.

Speaking of which, let's see what changes happen this week.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Edition

The first November bracket is ready.

As we get more evidence from the college football season, in theory you'd have more of an argument for certain teams to make the postseason. With all the chaos that's gone on, this was probably my toughest bracket to build yet.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their first batch of rankings on Tuesday, and I was pretty impressed. Our top six matched, though not in the same order, and of their Top 25, 12 of their teams were also in the Death to the BCS Playoffs. They ranked some teams higher than teams I had in, but there weren't any teams on their list that I didn't consider to some degree. Their new batch will be out tomorrow, and we can compare that then.

As for selecting the Death to the BCS Playoffs field, the requirements are a little less stringent, since 16 teams make it. All ten conference champions receive the automatic bids, and I fill out the bracket with six at-large teams. To decide the participants and their seeds, I use a lot of math. Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) loosely determines how hard of a schedule outside of their league each team gave itself. This is a minor stat compared to First Degree (PP1) and Second Degree (PP2) Playoff Points, which helps determine how good a team you really are based on who you beat, and who the teams you beat beat. To keep myself from being biased, I also include computer rankings using formulas written by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH) to balance it out.

Drumroll, please. Let's unveil the updated field if the season ended today.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

Another week of college football is in the books. Now that we are into November, we're starting to get down to the nitty-gritty of the year. High school playoffs are in full swing in Illinois, though both my alma mater and Logan's team (in heartbreaking fashion) are out. The highest college ranks, meanwhile, have most of the month left with which to make their cases to make the College Football Playoff.

I was pretty impressed with the committee in their first week, actually. Despite my feeling bad about adding to the SEC bias, the committee ended up with the same Top 6 I did, though mine were in a slightly different order. There will be changes again this week, but that comes later.

For now, I need to update all of the Playoff Points numbers from the weekend. Most of the games were in conference, but as the season continues, the numbers continue to grow, even though the rankings have stayed largely the same.

If you need a reminder as to how the Playoff Points system works, you can refer back to the explanation from Week 1 here. Time to math.